Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

Cellular immune responses to HCV core increase and HCV RNA levels decrease during successful antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of morbidity in HIV infected individuals. Coinfection with HIV is associated with diminished HCV-specific immune responses and higher HCV RNA levels. AIMS: To investigate whether long-term combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) restores HCV-specific T cell responses and improves the control of HCV replication. METHODS: T cell responses were evaluated longitudinally in 80 HIV/HCV coinfected individuals by ex vivo interferon-gamma-ELISpot responses to HCV core peptides, that predominantly stimulate CD4(+) T cells. HCV RNA levels were assessed by real-time PCR in 114 individuals. RESULTS: The proportion of individuals with detectable T cell responses to HCV core peptides was 19% before starting cART, 24% in the first year on cART and increased significantly to 45% and 49% after 33 and 70 months on cART (p=0.001). HCV-specific immune responses increased in individuals with chronic (+31%) and spontaneously cleared HCV infection (+30%). Median HCV RNA levels before starting cART were 6.5 log(10) IU/ml. During long-term cART, median HCV-RNA levels slightly decreased compared to pre-cART levels (-0.3 log10 IU/ml, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Successful cART is associated with increasing cellular immune responses to HCV core peptides and with a slight long-term decrease in HCV RNA levels. These findings are in line with the favourable clinical effects of cART on the natural history of hepatitis C and with the current recommendation to start cART earlier in HCV/HIV coinfected individuals.

Dosing regimen of gentamicin in neonates: evaluation of current guidelines based on a large population pharmacokinetic analysis

Objectives: Gentamicin is among the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in newborns, but large interindividual variability in exposure levels exists. Based on a population pharmacokinetic analysis of a cohort of unselected neonates, we aimed to validate current dosing recommendations from a recent reference guideline (Neofax®). Methods: From 3039 concentrations collected in 994 preterm (median gestational age 32.3 weeks, range 24.2-36.5) and 455 term newborns, treated at the University Hospital of Lausanne between 2006 and 2011, a population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with NONMEM®. Model-based simulations were used to assess the ability of dosing regimens to bring concentrations into targets: trough ≤ 1mg/L and peak ~ 8mg/L. Results: A two-compartment model best characterized gentamicin pharmacokinetics. Model parameters are presented in the table. Body weight, gestational age and postnatal age positively influence clearance, which decreases under dopamine administration. Body weight and gestational age influence the distribution volume. Model based simulations confirm that preterm infants need doses superior to 4 mg/kg, and extended dosage intervals, up to 48 hours for very preterm newborns, whereas most term newborns would achieve adequate exposure under 4 mg/kg q. 24 h. More than 90% of neonates would achieve trough concentrations below 2 mg/L and peaks above 6 mg/L following most recent guidelines. Conclusions: Simulated gentamicin exposure demonstrates good accordance with recent dosing recommendations for target concentration achievement.

Current resistance status to temephos in Aedes aegypti from different regions of Argentina

In Argentina, more than 25,000 cases of dengue were reported in the summer of 2009, even in provinces where the disease was formerly absent. We analysed the susceptibility levels to the larvicide temephos in seven populations of Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, collected during summer 2007/2008, using the susceptible Rockefeller strain as a control. Although no control failures were observed during the experiment, a majority of the lethal concentration and resistance ratio values indicate an incipient resistance. An integrative program to monitor the resistance of Ae. aegypti to insecticides is needed in the country.

Current epidemiological status of schistosomiasis in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil

Uncontrolled peripheral urbanisation coupled with environmental degradation has affected the status of schistosomiasis in Pernambuco (PE), Brazil. This endemic disease continues to perpetuate its transmission in rural areas and has also become a cause for concern in coastal towns of the state. The lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation and health programmes) to support the new urban areas leads to faecal contamination of natural aquatic environments, resulting in consequent infection of vector snails and the emergence of new sources of schistosomiasis transmission. In the present paper, we discuss the current epidemiological status of schistosomiasis in PE. We have consolidated and analysed information from parasitological, malacological and morbidity surveys undertaken by the group of researchers at the Laboratory of Schistosomiasis, Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães-Fiocruz. The results of our analysis show: (i) the maintenance of the levels of schistosomiasis in the rural Zona da Mata, PE, (ii) the record of the human cases of schistosomiasis and the foci of infected snails detected along the coast of PE through 2007, (iii) the high record of the severe clinical form of schistosomiasis in the metropolitan region of Recife (RMR) and (iv) new breeding sites of schistosomiasis vector snails that were identified in a 2008 survey covering the RMR and the coastal localities of PE.

Serial measurement of the circulating levels of tumour necrosis factor and its soluble receptors 1 and 2 for monitoring leprosy patients during multidrug treatment

Leprosy is an infectious and contagious spectral disease accompanied by a series of immunological events triggered by the host response to the aetiologic agent, Mycobacterium leprae . The induction and maintenance of the immune/inflammatory response in leprosy are linked to multiple cell interactions and soluble factors, primarily through the action of cytokines. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the serum levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α and its soluble receptors (sTNF-R1 and sTNF-R2) in leprosy patients at different stages of multidrug treatment (MDT) in comparison with non-infected individuals and to determine their role as putative biomarkers of the severity of leprosy or the treatment response. ELISA was used to measure the levels of these molecules in 30 healthy controls and 37 leprosy patients at the time of diagnosis and during and after MDT. Our results showed increases in the serum levels of TNF-α and sTNF-R2 in infected individuals in comparison with controls. The levels of TNF-α, but not sTNF-R2, decreased with treatment. The current results corroborate previous reports of elevated serum levels of TNF-α in leprosy and suggest a role for sTNF-R2 in the control of this cytokine during MDT.

Antiepileptika bei Frauen im gebärfähigen Alter und in der Schwangerschaft : Vergleich der Fachinformationen in Deutschland und der Schweiz mit dem aktuellen Wissensstand [Antiepileptics in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy : Comparison of specialized information with the current state of knowledge in Germany and Switzerland].

BACKGROUND: Healthcare professionals regularly read the summary of product characteristics (SmPC) as one of the various sources of information on the risks of drug use in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy. The aim of this article is to present an overview of the teratogenic potential of various antiepileptic drugs and to compare these data with the information provided by the SmPCs. METHODS: A literature search on the teratogenic risks of 19 antiepileptic agents was conducted and the results were compared with the information on the use in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy provided by the SmPCs of 38 commercial products available in Switzerland and Germany. RESULTS: The teratogenic risk is discussed in all available SmPCs. Quantification of the risk for birth defects and the numbers of documented pregnancies are mostly missing. Reproductive safety information in SmPCs showed poor concordance with risk levels reported in the literature. Recommendations concerning the need to monitor plasma levels and possibly perform dose adjustments during pregnancy to prevent treatment failure were missing in five Swiss and two German SmPCs. DISCUSSION: The information regarding use in women of childbearing age and during pregnancy provided by the SmPCs is heterogeneous and poorly reflects the current state of knowledge. Regular updates of SmPCs are warranted in order for these documents to be of reliable use for health care professionals.

Impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART), immunosuppression and viraemia on lipid levels: the D:A:D study

Purpose of the study: To investigate the impact of ART, HIV viremia and immunosuppression on triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. Methods: We considered the cross-sectional associations between TG, TC and HDL-C (mmol/l; first available measurement on/after enrolment in the D:A:D study) and use of ART, HIV viral load (VL; copies/ml), and CD4 count (cells/mm3) measured at the same time. TG was log10 transformed to ensure normality. Analyses were performed using linear regression and adjusted for other factors known to impact lipid levels (table footnote). ART and VL status were combined (off ART&VL _100,000, off ART&VL B100,000, on ART&VL B500, on ART&VL _500), current and nadir CD4 count were categorised as B200, 200_349, 350_499 and _500. Summary of results: 44,322/49,734 participants in the D:A:D Study (89.1%) contributed a TG measurement (median; IQR 1.52; 1.00_ 2.45), 45,169 (90.8%) a TC measurement (4.80; 4.00_5.70) and 38,604 (77.6%) a HDL-C measurement (1.12; 0.90_1.40). Most participants were male (74%), of white ethnicity (51%), without AIDS (78%), were not receiving lipid-lowering drugs (4%) and were ART experienced (61%) with 47% previously exposed to PIs, 61% previously exposed to NRTIs and 29% previously exposed to NNRTIs. The median (IQR) age, current CD4 count and CD4 nadir were 38 (36_45) years, 400 (242_590) cells/ml and 240 (100_410) cells/ml respectively. Compared to those on ART with a suppressed VL, all lipids were lower for those off ART (Table); non-suppressive ART was also associated with lower TC and HDL-C levels (no impact on TG). A low current CD4 count was associated with lower lipid levels, whereas a low nadir CD4 count was associated with higher TC and TG levels. Prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with higher TG and TC, but lower HDL-C levels. Conclusion: Although specific drug classes were not considered, lipid levels are considerably higher in those on a suppressive ART regimen. The higher TC/TG and lower HDL-C levels seen among those with low nadir CD4 count and with a prior AIDS diagnosis suggests severe immunosuppression may be associated with dyslipidaemia over the long-term.

Trophic dynamics in the northern Humboldt Current system: insights from stable isotopes and stomach content analyses

The northern Humboldt Current system (NHCS) off Peru is one of the most productive world marine regions. It represents less than 0.1% of the world ocean surface but presently sustains about 10% of the world fish catch, with the Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta Engraulis ringens as emblematic fish resource. Compared with other eastern boundary upwelling systems, the higher fish productivity of the NHCS cannot be explained by a corresponding higher primary productivity. On another hand, the NHCS is the region where El Niño, and climate variability in general, is most notable. Also, surface oxygenated waters overlie an intense and extremely shallow Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). In this context, the main objective of this study is to better understand the trophic flows in the NHCS using both stomach content and stable isotope analyses. The study focuses on a variety of organisms from low trophic levels such as zooplankton to top predators (seabirds and fur seals). The approach combines both long-term and specific studies on emblematic species such as anchoveta, and sardine Sardinops sagax and a more inclusive analysis considering the 'global' food web in the recent years (2008 – 2012) using stable isotope analysis. Revisiting anchovy and sardine we show that whereas phytoplankton largely dominated anchoveta and sardine diets in terms of numerical abundance, the carbon content of prey items indicated that zooplankton was by far the most important dietary component. Indeed for anchovy euphausiids contributed 67.5% of dietary carbon, followed by copepods (26.3%). Selecting the largest prey, the euphausiids, provide an energetic advantage for anchoveta in its ecosystem where oxygen depletion imposes strong metabolic constrain to pelagic fish. Sardine feed on smaller zooplankton than do anchoveta, with sardine diet consisting of smaller copepods and fewer euphausiids than anchoveta diet. Hence, trophic competition between sardine and anchovy in the northern Humboldt Current system is minimized by their partitioning of the zooplankton food resource based on prey size, as has been reported in other systems. These results suggest an ecological role for pelagic fish that challenges previous understanding of their position in the foodweb (zooplanktophagous instead of phytophagous), the functioning and the trophic models of the NHCS. Finally to obtain a more comprehensive vision of the relative trophic position of NHCS main components we used stable isotope analyses. For that purpose we analyzed the δ13C and δ15N stable isotope values of thirteen taxonomic categories collected off Peru from 2008 - 2011, i.e., zooplankton, fish, squids and air-breathing top predators. The δ15N isotope signature was strongly impacted by the species, the body length and the latitude. Along the Peruvian coast, the OMZ get more intense and shallow south of ~7.5ºS impacting the baseline nitrogen stable isotopes. Employing a linear mixed-effects modelling approach taking into account the latitudinal and body length effects, we provide a new vision of the relative trophic position of key ecosystem components. Also we confirm stomach content-based results on anchoveta Engraulis ringens and highlight the potential remarkable importance of an often neglected ecosystem component, the squat lobster Pleuroncodes monodon. Indeed, our results support the hypothesis according to which this species forage to some extent on fish eggs and larvae and can thus predate on the first life stages of exploited species. However, the δ13C values of these two species suggest that anchoveta and squat lobster do not exactly share the same habitat. This would potentially reduce some direct competition and/or predation.

Sleep function: current questions and new approaches.

The mammalian brain oscillates through three distinct global activity states: wakefulness, non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep and REM sleep. The regulation and function of these 'vigilance' or 'behavioural' states can be investigated over a broad range of temporal and spatial scales and at different levels of functional organization, i.e. from gene expression to memory, in single neurons, cortical columns or the whole brain and organism. We summarize some basic questions that have arisen from recent approaches in the quest for the functions of sleep. Whereas traditionally sleep was viewed to be regulated through top-down control mechanisms, recent approaches have emphasized that sleep is emerging locally and regulated in a use-dependent (homeostatic) manner. Traditional markers of sleep homeostasis, such as the electroencephalogram slow-wave activity, have been linked to changes in connectivity and plasticity in local neuronal networks. Thus waking experience-induced local network changes may be sensed by the sleep homeostatic process and used to mediate sleep-dependent events, benefiting network stabilization and memory consolidation. Although many questions remain unanswered, the available data suggest that sleep function will best be understood by an analysis which integrates sleep's many functional levels with its local homeostatic regulation.

Comparing the artificial neural network with parcial least squares for prediction of soil organic carbon and pH at different moisture content levels using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy

Visible and near infrared (vis-NIR) spectroscopy is widely used to detect soil properties. The objective of this study is to evaluate the combined effect of moisture content (MC) and the modeling algorithm on prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) and pH. Partial least squares (PLS) and the Artificial neural network (ANN) for modeling of SOC and pH at different MC levels were compared in terms of efficiency in prediction of regression. A total of 270 soil samples were used. Before spectral measurement, dry soil samples were weighed to determine the amount of water to be added by weight to achieve the specified gravimetric MC levels of 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 %. A fiber-optic vis-NIR spectrophotometer (350-2500 nm) was used to measure spectra of soil samples in the diffuse reflectance mode. Spectra preprocessing and PLS regression were carried using Unscrambler® software. Statistica® software was used for ANN modeling. The best prediction result for SOC was obtained using the ANN (RMSEP = 0.82 % and RPD = 4.23) for soil samples with 25 % MC. The best prediction results for pH were obtained with PLS for dry soil samples (RMSEP = 0.65 % and RPD = 1.68) and soil samples with 10 % MC (RMSEP = 0.61 % and RPD = 1.71). Whereas the ANN showed better performance for SOC prediction at all MC levels, PLS showed better predictive accuracy of pH at all MC levels except for 25 % MC. Therefore, based on the data set used in the current study, the ANN is recommended for the analyses of SOC at all MC levels, whereas PLS is recommended for the analysis of pH at MC levels below 20 %.

Levels and determinants of inflammatory biomarkers in a Swiss population-based sample (CoLaus Study).

OBJECTIVE: to assess the levels and determinants of interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-6, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-a and C-reactive protein (CRP) in a healthy Caucasian population.METHODS: population sample of 2884 men and 3201 women aged 35 to 75. IL-1ß, IL-6 and TNF-a were assessed by a multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay and CRP by an immunometric assay.RESULTS: Spearman rank correlations between duplicate cytokine measurements (N?=?80) ranged between 0.89 and 0.96; intra-class correlation coefficients ranged between 0.94 and 0.97, indicating good reproducibility. Among the 6085 participants, 2289 (37.6%), 451 (7.4%) and 43 (0.7%) had IL-1ß, IL-6 and TNF-a levels below detection limits, respectively. Median (interquartile range) for participants with detectable values were 1.17 (0.48-3.90) pg/ml for IL-1ß; 1.47 (0.71-3.53) pg/ml for IL-6; 2.89 (1.82-4.53) pg/ml for TNF-a and 1.3 (0.6-2.7) ng/ml for CRP. On multivariate analysis, greater age was the only factor inversely associated with IL-1ß levels. Male sex, increased BMI and smoking were associated with greater IL-6 levels, while no relationship was found for age and leisure-time PA. Male sex, greater age, increased BMI and current smoking were associated with greater TNF-a levels, while no relationship was found with leisure-time PA. CRP levels were positively related to age, BMI and smoking, and inversely to male sex and physical activity.CONCLUSION: Population-based levels of several cytokines were established. Increased age and BMI, and to a lesser degree sex and smoking, significantly and differentially impact cytokine levels, while leisure-time physical activity has little effect.

CT radiation dose in children: a survey to establish age-based diagnostic reference levels in Switzerland

This work aimed at assessing the doses delivered in Switzerland to paediatric patients during computed tomography (CT) examinations of the brain, chest and abdomen, and at establishing diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) for various age groups. Forms were sent to the ten centres performing CT on children, addressing the demographics, the indication and the scanning parameters: number of series, kilovoltage, tube current, rotation time, reconstruction slice thickness and pitch, volume CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) and dose length product (DLP). Per age group, the proposed DRLs for brain, chest and abdomen are, respectively, in terms of CTDI(vol): 20, 30, 40, 60 mGy; 5, 8, 10, 12 mGy; 7, 9, 13, 16 mGy; and in terms of DLP: 270, 420, 560, 1,000 mGy cm; 110, 200, 220, 460 mGy cm; 130, 300, 380, 500 mGy cm. An optimisation process should be initiated to reduce the spread in dose recorded in this study. A major element of this process should be the use of DRLs.

Childhood socioeconomic position and objectively measured physical capability levels in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Grip strength, walking speed, chair rising and standing balance time are objective measures of physical capability that characterise current health and predict survival in older populations. Socioeconomic position (SEP) in childhood may influence the peak level of physical capability achieved in early adulthood, thereby affecting levels in later adulthood. We have undertaken a systematic review with meta-analyses to test the hypothesis that adverse childhood SEP is associated with lower levels of objectively measured physical capability in adulthood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Relevant studies published by May 2010 were identified through literature searches using EMBASE and MEDLINE. Unpublished results were obtained from study investigators. Results were provided by all study investigators in a standard format and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. 19 studies were included in the review. Total sample sizes in meta-analyses ranged from N = 17,215 for chair rise time to N = 1,061,855 for grip strength. Although heterogeneity was detected, there was consistent evidence in age adjusted models that lower childhood SEP was associated with modest reductions in physical capability levels in adulthood: comparing the lowest with the highest childhood SEP there was a reduction in grip strength of 0.13 standard deviations (95% CI: 0.06, 0.21), a reduction in mean walking speed of 0.07 m/s (0.05, 0.10), an increase in mean chair rise time of 6% (4%, 8%) and an odds ratio of an inability to balance for 5s of 1.26 (1.02, 1.55). Adjustment for the potential mediating factors, adult SEP and body size attenuated associations greatly. However, despite this attenuation, for walking speed and chair rise time, there was still evidence of moderate associations. CONCLUSIONS: Policies targeting socioeconomic inequalities in childhood may have additional benefits in promoting the maintenance of independence in later life.

Current cardiovascular risk management patterns with special focus on lipid lowering in daily practice in Switzerland.

Background: There may be a considerable gap between LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) and blood pressure (BP) goal values recommended by the guidelines and results achieved in daily practice. Design Prospective cross-sectional survey of cardiovascular disease risk profiles and management with focus on lipid lowering and BP lowering in clinical practice. Methods: In phase 1, the cardiovascular risk of patients with known lipid profile visiting their general practitioner was anonymously assessed in accordance to the PROCAM-score. In phase 2, high-risk patients who did not achieve LDL-C goal less than 2.6 mmol/l in phase 1 could be further documented. Results: Six hundred thirty-five general practitioners collected the data of 23 892 patients with known lipid profile. Forty percent were high-risk patients (diabetes mellitus or coronary heart disease or PROCAM-score >20%), compared with 27% estimated by the physicians. Goal attainment rate was almost double for BP than for LDL-C in high-risk patients (62 vs. 37%). Both goals were attained by 25%. LDL-C values in phase 1 and 2 were available for 3097 high-risk patients not at LDL-C goal in phase 1; 32% of patients achieved LDL-C goal of less than 2.6 mmol/l after a mean of 17 weeks. The most successful strategies for LDL-C reduction were implemented in only 22% of the high-risk patients. Conclusion: Although patients at high cardiovascular risk were treated more intensively than low or medium risk patients, the majority remained insufficiently controlled, which is an incentive for intensified medical education. Adequate implementation of Swiss and International guidelines would expectedly contribute to improved achievement of LDL-C and BP goal values in daily practice.