Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

How historical and present climat conditions affected the distribution of the mediterranean whter shrew?:a phylogeographical and ecological approach

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Evolutiva), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Atmospheric quality and distribution of heavy metals in Argentina employing Tillandsia capillaris as a biomonitor.

The atmospheric quality and distribution of heavy metals were evaluated throughout a wide region of Argentina. In addition, the biomonitor performance of Tillandsia capillaris Ruiz & Pav. f. capillaris was studied in relation to the accumulation of heavy metals and to its physiologic response to air pollutants. A sampling area of 50,000 km2 was selected in the central region of the Argentine Republic. This area was subdivided into grids of 25 x 25 km. Pools of T. capillaris, where present, were collected at each intersection point. From each pool three sub-samples were analyzed independently. Furthermore, five replicates were collected at 20% of the points in order to analyze the variability within the site. The content of Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Mn, Pb and Zn was determined by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry. Chemical-physiological parameters were also determined to detect symptoms of foliar damage. Chlorophylls, phaeophytins, hydroperoxy conjugated dienes, malondialdehyde and sulfur were quantified in T. capillaris. Some of these parameters were used to calculate a foliar damage index. Data sets were evaluated by one-way ANOVA, correlation analysis, principal component analysis and mapping. Geographical distribution patterns were obtained for the different metals reflecting the contribution of natural and anthropogenic emission sources. According to our results it can be inferred that Fe, Mn and Co probably originated in the soil. For Pb, the highest values were found in the mountainous area, which can be attributed to the presence of Pb in the granitic rocks. Ni showed mainly an anthropogenic origin, with higher values found in places next to industrial centers. For Zn the highest values were in areas of agricultural development. The same was observed for Cu, whose presence could be related to the employment of pesticides. The foliar damage index distribution map showed that the central and southeastern zones were the ones where the major damage in the bioindicator was found. The central zone coincides with the city of Córdoba whereas the southeastern area is strictly agricultural, so the high values found there could be related to the use of pesticides.

Similarities among ectoparasite fauna of sigmodontine rodents: phylogenetic and geographical influences

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Systematics and distribution of Thorea (Thoreaceae, Rhodophyta) from central Mexico and south-eastern Brazil

Thirteen populations of Thorea were analyzed from central Mexico and south-eastern Brazil. All populations were considered as belonging to a single species [Thorea hispida (Thore) Desvaux], with wide variation of morphological features. Secondary branches varying in frequency were observed in several populations with an overlapping in the range of branch density for Thorea violacea Bory and T. hispida (0-9 and 11-41 per 30 mm, respectively). As this is the most distinguishing character and on the basis of the overlapping (within a same population or even a single plant), we regarded T. violacea as a synonym of T. hispida. 'Chantransia' stage in culture, as well as gametophyte and carposporophyte were described in detail. We confirmed the coexistence of asexual monosporangia with sexual reproductive structures (carpogonia and spermatangia) and carposporangia. Size, content, arrangement and chromosome number were the most distinctive characteristics among spermatangia, carposporangia and monosporangia. Monosporangia can be promptly differentiated from spermatangia by their granulated content and larger size but they are similar to carposporangia in shape and size; however, monosporangia are not arranged in fascicles. Structures resembling bisporangia were observed in female plants of some populations. Chromosome numbers were n = 4 for spermatangia and fascicle cells, and 2n ca8 for gonimoblast filaments, carpospores and the 'Chantransia' stage cells. The populations of Thorea from central Mexico and south-eastern Brazil corroborated the known world distribution for T. hispida, consisting dominantly of tropical to subtropical rainforests, sometimes extending into warm temperate areas. Thorea hispida occurred in warm (temperature 17.6-28.0°C), neutral to alkaline (pH 7.0-8.0), high ion content (specific conductance 59-2140 μS cm-1), moderate flowing (current velocity 17-43 cm/s) and shallow waters (depth <50 cm); these data are essentially similar to previous reports.

Taxonomy and distribution of Paralemanea (Lemaneaceae, Rhodophyta) in Central Mexico

Three collections of Paralemanea from Central Mexico included two species. Paralemanea mexicana is large (length ≥ 4.0 cm; diameter > 400 μm) and generally branched (≥ 40 % of plants branched), with whorled branches, of first to second order. Paralemanea annulata is small (length < 5.0 cm ; diameter < 500 μm), generally unbranched (≤ 5 % of plants branched), with branches of first order. Spermatangial sori contained obovoid spermatangia, formed from cells of the outer cortical layers, extending above the thallus surface. Carpogonial branches are described for the first time in P. mexicana. They develop on lateral filaments at nodes or internodes and have ovoid to globular cells, abundantly branched at the basal portion, penetrating the cortex towards the thallus surface. Carposporophytes are sessile on the inner portion of the cortex and produce carpospores in chains of up to twelve. The 'Chantransia' stage was observed in P. mexicana. Paralemanea annulata is described for the first time from Mexico and P. mexicana is endemic from this country. Both species were collected in cold (temperature 12-16°C), acidic (pH 5.5-6.0), shallow (depth 1-60 cm) and moderate to fast flowing waters (> 35 cm s-1), in shaded or partly shaded river segments, on rocky substrata (mostly bedrock).

Rhachidelus Brazili Boulenger, 1908 (Squamata: Serpentes: Dipsadidae): New records, range extension and distribution map in mato grosso and mato grosso do Sul states, Brazil

The present study reports new records of the Dipsadid snake Rhachidelus brazili Boulenger, 1908, from Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states, Brazil. Our data extend the known geographical distribution ca. 713 km to the northwest and constitute the first record in the Upper Paraguay sub-basin. © 2011 Check List and Authors.

Leposoma osvaldoi avila-pires, 1995 (Squamata: Gymnophthalmidae): New records and distribution map in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil

The present study provides the distribution map and reports new records of the gymnophthalmid lizard Leposoma osvaldoi Avila-Pires, 1995, from Mato Grosso state, Brazil, extending the known geographical distribution of the species ca. 42 km northeastern in straight line from the nearest record in the state. © 2011 Check List and Authors.

Lepidobatrachus asper Budgett,1899 (Amphibia: Anura: Ceratophryidae): New country record, distribution map and natural history notes

Lepidobatrachus asper is a large to medium frog known from the Chaco lowlands of Paraguay and Argentina. We provide the first species record for the Brazilian Chaco, which extends the species geographical distribution ca. 73 km northeast from Puerto Casado, Alto Paraguay Departament, Paraguay. We also provide a distribution map and information about the species habitat conditions and diet. The Brazilian Chaco is still poorly surveyed, and the rapid environmental degradation can lead to local extinctions of certain species. © 2013 Check List and Authors.

Biologia populacional do camarão-ferrinho Rimapenaeus constrictus (Stimpson, 1874) (Decapoda: Penaeoidea) na região de Cananéia, litoral sul do estado de São Paulo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Geographical variation in mutualistic networks: similarity, turnover and partner fidelity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Implementing new northernmost records to modelling the distribution of Hypsiboas caingua (Anura: Hylidae) in South America

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)