754 resultados para Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Resumo:
Choosing a mate is one of the largest (economic) decisions humans make. This thesis investigates this large scale decision and how the process is changing with the advent of the internet and the growing market for online informal sperm donation. This research identifies individual factors that influence female mating preferences. It explores the roles of behavioural traits and physical appearance, preferences for homogamy and hypergamy, and personality, and how these impact the decision to choose a donor. Overall, this thesis makes contributions to both the literature on human behaviour, and that on decision-making in extreme and highly important situations.
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Welfare-to-work policy in the UK sees ‘choice’ regarding lone parents’ employment decisions increasingly defined in terms of powers of selection between options within active labour market programmes, with constraints on the option of non-market activity progressively tightened. In this paper, we examine the wider choice agenda in public services in relation to lone-parent employment, focusing on the period of welfare reform following the 2007 Freud review of welfare provision. Survey data is used to estimate the extent to which recent policies promoting compulsory job search by youngest dependent child age map onto lone parents' own stated decision-making regarding if and when to enter the labour market. The findings indicate a substantial proportion of lone parents targeted by policy reform currently do not want a job and that their main reported reason is that they are looking after their children. Economically inactive lone mothers also remain more likely to have other chronic employment barriers, which traverse dependent child age categories. Some problems, such as poor health, sickness or disability, are particularly acute among those with older dependent children who are the target of recent activation policy.
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This study confronts a gender bias in research on adolescent pregnancy by exploring adolescent men’s decisions relating to a hypothetical unplanned pregnancy. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with adolescent men (N = 360) aged between 14 and 18 years attending schools in the Republic of Ireland. The study, the first of its kind in Europe, extends the small body of evidence on adolescent men and pregnancy decision-making by developing and examining reactions to an interactive video drama used in a comparable study in Australia. In addition, we tested a more comprehensive range of sociological and psychological determinants of adolescent men’s decisions regarding an unplanned pregnancy. Results showed that adolescent men were more likely to choose to keep the baby in preference to abortion or adoption. Adolescent men’s choice to continue the pregnancy (keep or adopt) in preference to abortion was significantly associated with anticipated feelings of regret in relation to abortion, perceived positive attitudes of own mother to keeping the baby and a feeling that a part of them might want a baby. Religiosity was also shown to underlie adolescent men’s views on the perceived consequences of an abortion in their lives.
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In line with the claim that regret plays a role in decision making, O’Connor, McCormack, and Feeney (2014) found that children who reported feeling sadder on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice were more likely to make a different choice next time round. We examined two issues of interpretation regarding this finding: whether the emotion measured was indeed regret, and whether it was the experience of this emotion rather than the ability to anticipate it that impacted on decision making. To address the first issue, we varied the degree to which children aged 6-7 were responsible for an outcome, assuming that responsibility is a necessary condition for regret. The second was addressed by examining whether children could accurately anticipate that they would feel worse on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice. Children were more likely to feel sad if they were responsible for the outcome; however even if they were not responsible, children were more likely than chance to report feeling sadder. Moreover, across all conditions feeling sadder was associated with making a better subsequent choice. In a separate task, we demonstrated that children of this age cannot accurately anticipate feeling sadder on discovering that they had not made the best choice. These findings suggest that although children may feel regret following a non-optimal choice, even if they were not responsible for an outcome they may experience another negative emotion such as frustration. Experiencing either of these emotions seems to be sufficient to support better decision making.
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Following on from the format of the previous Book Understanding Risk: Contributions from the Journal of Risk and Governance, this collection of recent contributions (including work by the editor) this book is divided in three sections . The first section examines issues relating to corporate governance in the private sector, with emphasis being placed on issues of 'Board Decision Making,' Earnings Management and Audit Committee Effectiveness' and ' Corporate Governance Failures.' These contributions are complemented by the second sections which looks at governance and risk issues affecting the public sector, with a focus being places on 'Public Private Partnerships' and regulation of activities in the Life Sciences.' Section three focuses on societal risk management in relation to health, safety and the environment. In this context, contributions are presented in relation to major debates surrounding 'Rising Trends in Cancer Cases,' dilemmas surrounding 'Medical Self Help,' 'Mental Health Policy' and the use of 'Information Technology in Health Care.'
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This study was an investigation of individual and organizational factors, as perceived by front-line vocational service workers from Adult Rehabilitation Centres (ARC Industries) for mentally retarded adults. The specific variables which were measured included role conflict/role ambiguity (role factors), internal/external locus of control (individual differences), job satisfaction with work and supervision (job attitudes) and participation in deci~ion making (organizational factor). The exploration of these constructs was conducted by means of self-report questionnaires which were completed by sixty-nine out of a total of ninety front-line employees. The surveys were distributed in booklet form to nine distinct rehabilitation facilities from St. Catharines, West Lincoln, Greater Niagara, Port Colborne, WeIland, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Guelph and Brantford. The survey data was evaluated by the statisti.cal Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) which used the Pearson Product Moment Correlation procedure and a compar~son of means test. A comparison of correlation coefficients test was also conducted. This statistical procedure was calculated mathematically. The results obtained from the statistical evaluation confirmed the prediction that self-reported measures of participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision) would be negatively correlated with role conflict and role ambiguity. As well, the speculation that perceived satisfaction (work and supervision) would be positively correlated with participation in decision making was empirically supported. Internal and external locus of control did not contribute to a significant difference in r~sponses to role perceptions (conflict and ambiguity) , satisfaction (work and supervision) or the correlational relationship between participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision). Overall, the findings from this study substantiated the importance of examining employee perceptions in the workplace and the interrelationships among individual and organizational variables. This research was considered a contribution to the general area of occupational stress and to the study of individuals in work organizations.
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Through a case-study analysis of Ontario's ethanol policy, this thesis addresses a number of themes that are consequential to policy and policy-making: spatiality, democracy and uncertainty. First, I address the 'spatial debate' in Geography pertaining to the relevance and affordances of a 'scalar' versus a 'flat' ontoepistemology. I argue that policy is guided by prior arrangements, but is by no means inevitable or predetermined. As such, scale and network are pragmatic geographical concepts that can effectively address the issue of the spatiality of policy and policy-making. Second, I discuss the democratic nature of policy-making in Ontario through an examination of the spaces of engagement that facilitate deliberative democracy. I analyze to what extent these spaces fit into Ontario's environmental policy-making process, and to what extent they were used by various stakeholders. Last, I take seriously the fact that uncertainty and unavoidable injustice are central to policy, and examine the ways in which this uncertainty shaped the specifics of Ontario's ethanol policy. Ultimately, this thesis is an exercise in understanding sub-national environmental policy-making in Canada, with an emphasis on how policy-makers tackle the issues they are faced with in the context of environmental change, political-economic integration, local priorities, individual goals, and irreducible uncertainty.
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Studying positive adolescent development requires an examination of the mutually beneficial associations between youth and their environment. These youthcontext relations include both the contributions that youth make to others and society and the youth-context interactions that might predict positive youth outcomes. Community and youth-serving organizations, where youth may be involved in decision-making roles such as service delivery, advocacy, or on boards of directors, can provide one important context for youth contributions and for positive adolescent development. Research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision-making, however, is limited, and largely consists of exploratory qualitative studies. This dissertation is formatted as an integrated article dissertation. It begins with a review of the literature on contexts of structured youth activities and positive youth development. This review is intended to describe theory on development-context relations, in which development is considered an interactive process that occurs between individuals and their contexts, as it pertains the positive development of youth who are involved in various structured activities (e.g., volunteering). This description follows with a review of current research, and conclusions and rationale for the current studies. Following this theoretical and research background, the dissertation includes reports of two studies that were designed to address gaps in the research on youth involvement in organizational decision-making. The first was a qualitative research synthesis to elucidate and summarize the extant qualitative research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision making on adults and organizations. Results of this study suggested a number of outcomes for service provision, staff, and broader organizational functioning, including both benefits to organizations as well as some costs. The second study was a quantitative analysis of the associations among youth involvement, organizations' learning culture, and youth initiative, and relied on survey data gathered from adults and youth in community-based organizations with youth involvement. As expected, greater youth involvement in organizational decision making was associated with higher learning culture within the organization. Two dimensions of youth involvement, greater program engagement and relationships with adults, were related to greater youth initiative. A third dimension, sense of ownership, was not- .-.- associated with youth's level of initiative. Moreover, the association between relationships with adults and youth initiative was only significant in organizations with relatively low learning culture. Despite some limitations, these studies contribute to the research literature by providing some indication of the potential benefits and costs of youth involvement and by making an important contribution toward the early stages of context-level analyses of youth development. Findings have important implications for practitioners, funders, future research, and lifespan development theory.
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Recent research has shown that University students with a history of self-reported mild head injury (MHI) are more willing to endorse moral transgressions associated with personal, relative to impersonal, dilemmas (Chiappetta & Good, 2008). However, the terms 'personal' and 'impersonal' in these dilemmas have functionally confounded the 'intentionality' of the transgression with the 'personal impact' or 'outcome' of the transgression. In this study we used a modified version of these moral dilemmas to investigate decision-making and sympathetic nervous system responsivity. Forty-eight University students (24 with MHI, 24 with no-MHI) read 24 scenarios depicting moral dilemmas varying as a function of 'intentionality' of the act (deliberate or unintentional) and its 'outcome' (physical harm, no physical harm, non-moral) and were required to rate their willingness to engage in the act. Physiological indices of arousal (e.g., heart rate - HR) were recorded throughout. Additionally, participants completed several neurocognitive tests. Results indicated significantly lowered HR activity at baseline, prior to, and during (but not after) making a decision for each type of dilemma for participants with MHI compared to their non-injured cohort. Further, they were more likely than their cohort to authorize personal injuries that were deliberately induced. MHI history was also associated with better performance on tasks of cognitive flexibility and attention; while students' complaints of postconcussive symptoms and their social problem solving abilities did not differ as a function of MHI history. The results provide subtle support for the hypothesis that both emotional and cognitive information guide moral decision making in ambiguous and emotionally distressing situations. Persons with even a MHI have diminished physiological arousal that may reflect disruption to the neural pathways of the VMPFC/OFC similar to those with more severe injuries.
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Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.
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The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.
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This study surveys parents with children who are deaf or hard of hearing from one private school in St. Louis, Missouri. The issue of stress and time pressure on decision making is addressed and the importance of how stress and time pressure effect parents’ decisions regarding their children who are deaf and hard of hearing.
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The problem of decision making, its mechanisms and consequences is the very core of management, it is virtually impossible to separate the act of manage from this knowledge area. As defined by Herbert Simon – "decision making" as though it were synonymous with "managing". A decision is a selection made by an individual regarding a choice of a conclusion about a situation. This represents a course of behavior pertaining to what must be done or what must not be done. A decision is the point at which plans, policies and objectives are translated into concrete actions. Our behavior during decisive moments is closely linked with our brain dominance profile. Over the years, our decision-making processes develop a consistent pattern, which can be described as a decision-making style. Our style is grounded in our preferences, which arise from our brain dominance characteristics […]. The importance of understanding the impact of our thinking preferences and how to improve the effectiveness as a leader of organizations are the main justifications for this thesis; the main problem addressed is the behavioral profile diversity in a selective Master’s cohort formed by students from several different countries. The research methodology approach has been quantitative, through questionnaire administration using the HBDI (Herrmann Brain Dominance Instrument), a validated framework developed by William "Ned" Herrmann when he was the leader of General Electric's Crotonville facility. This questionnaire has been administered in hundreds of thousands professional, enabling the possibility to establish correlations between a certain group and several historical databases. The selected group of analysis is the first cohort (23 students) from the CIM (Corporate International Master's), a joint program between Georgetown University (USA), ESADE (Spain) and FGV (Brazil). Besides decision preferences, the obtained profile enables the discussion on leadership style, heuristic's pitfalls and a base to compare with future cohorts. The fundamental research question is: how diverse is the dominant decision-making profile for the CIM students?
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Purpose This study investigated satisfaction with treatment decision (SWTD), decision-making preferences (DMP), and main treatment goals, as well as evaluated factors that predict SWTD, in patients receiving palliative cancer treatment at a Swiss oncology network. Patients and methods Patients receiving a new line of palliative treatment completed a questionnaire 4–6 weeks after the treatment decision. Patient questionnaires were used to collect data on sociodemographics, SWTD (primary outcome measure), main treatment goal, DMP, health locus of control (HLoC), and several quality of life (QoL) domains. Predictors of SWTD (6 = worst; 30 = best) were evaluated by uni- and multivariate regression models. Results Of 480 participating patients in eight hospitals and two private practices, 445 completed all questions regarding the primary outcome measure. Forty-five percent of patients preferred shared, while 44 % preferred doctor-directed, decision-making. Median duration of consultation was 30 (range: 10–200) minutes. Overall, 73 % of patients reported high SWTD (≥24 points). In the univariate analyses, global and physical QoL, performance status, treatment goal, HLoC, prognosis, and duration of consultation were significant predictors of SWTD. In the multivariate analysis, the only significant predictor of SWTD was duration of consultation (p = 0.01). Most patients indicated hope for improvement (46 %), followed by hope for longer life (26 %) and better quality of life (23 %), as their main treatment goal. Conclusion Our results indicate that high SWTD can be achieved in most patients with a 30-min consultation. Determining the patient’s main treatment goal and DMP adds important information that should be considered before discussing a new line of palliative treatment.