Sovereigns and banks in the euro area : a tale of two crises

This study attempts to identify and trace inter-linkages between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. To this end, we use an indicator of banking risk in each country based on the Contingent Claim Analysis literature, and 10-year government yield spreads over Germany as a measure of sovereign risk. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in 10 euro area countries, allowing us to check for contagion in the form of a significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of contagion vary considerably in both directions over time and within the different EMU countries. Significantly, we find that causal linkages tend to strengthen particularly at the time of major financial crises. The empirical evidence suggests the presence of contagion, mainly from banks to sovereigns.

Tendências evolutivas de famílias produtoras de cumarinas em angiospermae

Coumarins are special metabolites well distributed in the Angiospermae, either in Monocotyledoneae or Dicotyledoneae. Simple coumarins, the most widespread type, is found in all coumarin-producing families, such as: Apiaceae, Rutaceae, Asteraceae, Fabaceae, Oleaceae, Moraceae e Thymelaeaceae. The other types, linear- and angular furanocoumarins, linear- and angular pyranocoumarins, lignocoumarins, bis- and triscoumarins, are of more restricted circumscription. Among the families with occurrence numbers (NO) > 100, the more advanced ones are specialized in the production of only one or two coumarin types, while the primitive families are very well diversified in types. Calculations of percentual numbers of occurrence (%NO) show relevant meaning of coumarin-types in the taxonomic positioning of the producing taxa.

Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

Expectativas evolutivas, ideas y creencias sobre la educación infantil de familias y maestros: ¿continuidad o discontinuidad?

La perspectiva ecológica sobre el desarrollo humano (Bronfenbrenner, 1979) pone el acento en la relación entre los diferentes contextos de vida de los niños. En la educación infantil, los contextos de vida mas importantes son la familia y la escuela. En este artículo mostramos los aspectos de continuidad y discontinuidad entre ambos contextos en relación a las ideas de las familias y las educadoras sobre el desarrollo infantil y también a sus creencias y expectativas sobre la educación. Los resultados muestran que existe un acuerdo notable en muchos aspectos entre las familias y las educadoras, si bien también existen aspectos de desacuerdo, principalmente entre las educadoras de parvulario y las familias

National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Fatores comuns determinantes de crises cambiais e financeiras

Determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis. This paper identifies and evaluates determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis in relation to 86 crises episodes between 1970-2004, based on factor analysis, cluster and discriminant analysis. One evidenced that the rise of the ratios of domestic credit, fiscal deficit and residents bank deposits to the GDP is inherent to the different types of crises classified for economic literature. It was also identified as common factors to these episodes some indicators that capture the excessive monetary expansion of the economies and that reflect the fall in international reserves, represented by M2/Reserves and Imports/Reserves ratios and also the total volume of international reserves.

Le rôle des contrôles de capitaux dans la réduction de la volatilité en présence de crises financières et monétaires contagieuses - Étude de cas du Chili et de la Colombie.

Rapport de recherche

Les facteurs declencheurs des crises financieres internationales

Ce rapport s'inscrit dans la problematique soulevée par l'insistance des milieux financiers américains et du Trésor américain à libéraliser et à globaliser les mouvements internationaux de capitaux. Dans cette perspective, il tente de répondre à trois questions, à savoir 1) est-ce que la finance internationale en général et les institutions monétaires et financières nationales et internationales sont sources d'instabilité financière et économique pour les pays? 2) est-il possible d'éviter que les bénéfices découlant de l'accès accru aux marchés internationaux des capitaux soient diminués et même renversés par des crises monétaires et financières internationales et nationales et, comme corollaire, 3) est-ce que le systême actuel des monnaies nationales est dépassé ?

Crise financière et monétaire asiatique : analyse des déterminants et des indicateurs de crises.

Rapport de recherche