(Table 1) Ice thickness at lake Nam Co, Tibet, during 2008-2009

Lake ice change is one of the sensitive indicators of regional and global climate change. Different sources of data are used in monitoring lake ice phenology nowadays. Visible and Near Infrared bands of imagery (VNIR) are well suited for the observation of freshwater ice change, for example data from AVHRR and MODIS. Active and passive microwave data are also used for the observation of lake ice, e.g., from satellite altimetry and radiometry, backscattering coefficient from QuickSCAT, brightness temperature (Tb) from SSM/I, SMMR, and AMSR-E. Most of the studies are about lake ice cover phenology, while few studies focus on lake ice thickness. For example, Hall et al. using 5 GHz (6 cm) radiometer data showed a good relationship between Tb and ice thickness. Kang et al. found the seasonal evolution of Tb at 10.65 GHz and 18.7 GHz from AMSR-E to be strongly influenced by ice thickness. Many studies on lake ice phenology have been carried out since the 1970s in cold regions, especially in Canada, the USA, Europe, the Arctic, and Antarctica. However, on the Tibetan Plateau, very little research has focused on lake ice-cover change; only a small number of published papers on Qinghai Lake ice observations. The main goal of this study is to investigate the change in lake ice phenology at Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau using MODIS and AMSR-E data (monitoring the date of freeze onset, the formation of stable ice cover, first appearance of water, and the complete disappearance of ice) during the period 2000-2009.

Palynological and geochemical data of sediment core GeoB3910-2 located offshore Northeast Brazil

High resolution palynological and geochemical data of sediment core GeoB 3910-2 (located offshore Northeast Brazil) spanning the period between 19 600 and 14 500 calibrated year bp (19.6-14.5 ka) show a land-cover change in the catchment area of local rivers in two steps related to changes in precipitation associated with Heinrich Event 1 (H1 stadial). At the end of the last glacial maximum, the landscape in semi-arid Northeast Brazil was dominated by a very dry type of caatinga vegetation, mainly composed of grasslands with some herbs and shrubs. After 18 ka, considerably more humid conditions are suggested by changes in the vegetation and by Corg and C/N data indicative of fluvial erosion. The caatinga became wetter and along lakes and rivers, sedges and gallery forest expanded. The most humid period was recorded between 16.5 and 15 ka, when humid gallery (and floodplain) forest and even small patches of mountainous Atlantic rain forest occurred together with dry forest, the latter being considered as a rather lush type of caatinga vegetation. During this humid phase erosion decreased as less lithogenic material and more organic terrestrial material were deposited on the continental slope of northern Brazil. After 15 ka arid conditions returned. During the humid second phase of the H1 stadial, a rich variety of landscapes existed in Northeast Brazil and during the drier periods small pockets of forest could probably survive in favorable spots, which would have increased the resilience of the forest to climate change.

Anomaly Detection Using Remote Sensing for the Archaeological Heritage Registration

The aim of this work is an approach using multisensor remote sensing techniques to recognize the potential remains and recreate the original landscape of three archaeological sites. We investigate the spectral characteristics of the reflectance parameter and emissivity in the pattern recognition of archaeological materials in several hyperspectral scenes of the prehispanic site in Palmar Sur (Costa Rica), the Jarama Valley site and the celtiberian city of Segeda in Spain. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of HyMAP, AHS, MASTER and ATM have been used. Several experiments on natural scenarios of Costa Rica and Spain of different complexity, have been designed. Spectral patterns and thermal anomalies have been calculated as evidences of buried remains and change detection. First results, land cover change analyses and their consequences in the digital heritage registration are discussed.

A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122 2005: 9-21.

Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local-level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr(-1) from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr(-1) of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well-defined 'local hotspots' of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.

Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple remote sensing based information system for monitoring sites of conservation importance

Monitoring is essential for conservation of sites, but capacity to undertake it in the field is often limited. Data collected by remote sensing has been identified as a partial solution to this problem, and is becoming a feasible option, since increasing quantities of satellite data in particular are becoming available to conservationists. When suitably classified, satellite imagery can be used to delineate land cover types such as forest, and to identify any changes over time. However, the conservation community lacks (a) a simple tool appropriate to the needs for monitoring change in all types of land cover (e.g. not just forest), and (b) an easily accessible information system which allows for simple land cover change analysis and data sharing to reduce duplication of effort. To meet these needs, we developed a web-based information system which allows users to assess land cover dynamics in and around protected areas (or other sites of conservation importance) from multi-temporal medium resolution satellite imagery. The system is based around an open access toolbox that pre-processes and classifies Landsat-type imagery, and then allows users to interactively verify the classification. These data are then open for others to utilize through the online information system. We first explain imagery processing and data accessibility features, and then demonstrate the toolbox and the value of user verification using a case study on Nakuru National Park, Kenya. Monitoring and detection of disturbances can support implementation of effective protection, assist the work of park managers and conservation scientists, and thus contribute to conservation planning, priority assessment and potentially to meeting monitoring needs for Aichi target 11.

Forecasting enrollment in differential assessment programs using cellular automata

Urban growth models have been used for decades to forecast urban development in metropolitan areas. Since the 1990s cellular automata, with simple computational rules and an explicitly spatial architecture, have been heavily utilized in this endeavor. One such cellular-automata-based model, SLEUTH, has been successfully applied around the world to better understand and forecast not only urban growth but also other forms of land-use and land-cover change, but like other models must be fed important information about which particular lands in the modeled area are available for development. Some of these lands are in categories for the purpose of excluding urban growth that are difficult to quantify since their function is dictated by policy. One such category includes voluntary differential assessment programs, whereby farmers agree not to develop their lands in exchange for significant tax breaks. Since they are voluntary, today’s excluded lands may be available for development at some point in the future. Mapping the shifting mosaic of parcels that are enrolled in such programs allows this information to be used in modeling and forecasting. In this study, we added information about California’s Williamson Act into SLEUTH’s excluded layer for Tulare County. Assumptions about the voluntary differential assessments were used to create a sophisticated excluded layer that was fed into SLEUTH’s urban growth forecasting routine. The results demonstrate not only a successful execution of this method but also yielded high goodness-of-fit metrics for both the calibration of enrollment termination as well as the urban growth modeling itself.

Connectivity of fragmented amphibian populations in a neotropical landscape

A high proportion of amphibian species are threatened with extinction globally, and habitat loss and degradation are the most frequently implicated causes. Rapid deforestation for the establishment of agricultural production is a primary driver of habitat loss in tropical zones where amphibian diversity is highest. Land-cover change affects native assemblages, in part, through the reduction of habitat area and the reduction of movement among remnant populations. Decreased gene flow contributes to loss of genetic diversity, which limits the ability of local populations to respond to further environmental changes. The focus of this dissertation is on the degree to which common land uses in Sarapiquí, Costa Rica impede the movement of two common amphibian species. First, I used field experiments, including displacement trials, and a behavioral landscape ecology framework to investigate the resistance of pastures to movement of Oophaga pumilio. Results from experiments demonstrate that pastures do impede movement of O. pumilio relative to forest. Microclimatic effects on movement performance as well as limited perceptual ranges likely contribute to reduced return rates through pastures. Next, I linked local processes to landscape scale estimates of resistance. I conducted experiments to measure habitat-specific costs to movement for O. pumilio and Craugastor bransfodrii, and then used experimental results to parameterize connectivity models. Model validation indicated highest support for resistance estimates generated from responses to land-use specific microclimates for both species and to predator encounters for O. pumilio. Finally, I used abundance and experiment-derived resistance estimates to analyze the effects of prevalent land uses on population genetic structure of the two focal species. While O. pumilio did not exhibit a strong response to landscape heterogeneity and was primarily structured by distances among sites, C. bransfordii genetic variation was explained by resistance estimates from abundance and experiment data. Collectivity, this work demonstrates that common land uses can offer different levels of resistance to amphibian movements in Sarapiquí and illustrates the value of investigating local scales processes to inform interpretation of landscape-scale patterns.^

Impact of protected forests on rural household fuel tree planting and deforestation: Chiro District, Ethiopia

This study aims at exploring the potential impact of forest protection intervention on rural households’ private fuel tree planting in Chiro district of eastern Ethiopia. The study results revealed a robust and significant positive impact of the intervention on farmers’ decisions to produce private household energy by growing fuel trees on their farm. As participation in private fuel tree planting is not random, the study confronts a methodological issue in investigating the causal effect of forest protection intervention on rural farm households’ private fuel tree planting through non-parametric propensity score matching (PSM) method. The protection intervention on average has increased fuel tree planting by 503 (580.6%) compared to open access areas and indirectly contributed to slowing down the loss of biodiversity in the area. Land cover/use is a dynamic phenomenon that changes with time and space due to anthropogenic pressure and development. Forest cover and land use changes in Chiro District, Ethiopia over a period of 40 years was studied using remotely sensed data. Multi temporal satellite data of Landsat was used to map and monitor forest cover and land use changes occurred during three point of time of 1972,1986 and 2012. A pixel base supervised image classification was used to map land use land cover classes for maps of both time set. The result of change detection analysis revealed that the area has shown a remarkable land cover/land use changes in general and forest cover change in particular. Specifically, the dense forest cover land declined from 235 ha in 1972 to 51 ha in 1986. However, government interventions in forest protection in 1989 have slowed down the drastic change of dense forest cover loss around the protected area through reclaiming 1,300 hectares of deforested land through reforestation program up to 2012.

Connectivity of fragmented amphibian populations in a Neotropical landscape

A high proportion of amphibian species are threatened with extinction globally, and habitat loss and degradation are the most frequently implicated causes. Rapid deforestation for the establishment of agricultural production is a primary driver of habitat loss in tropical zones where amphibian diversity is highest. Land-cover change affects native assemblages, in part, through the reduction of habitat area and the reduction of movement among remnant populations. Decreased gene flow contributes to loss of genetic diversity, which limits the ability of local populations to respond to further environmental changes. The focus of this dissertation is on the degree to which common land uses in Sarapiquí, Costa Rica impede the movement of two common amphibian species. First, I used field experiments, including displacement trials, and a behavioral landscape ecology framework to investigate the resistance of pastures to movement of Oophaga pumilio. Results from experiments demonstrate that pastures do impede movement of O. pumilio relative to forest. Microclimatic effects on movement performance as well as limited perceptual ranges likely contribute to reduced return rates through pastures. Next, I linked local processes to landscape scale estimates of resistance. I conducted experiments to measure habitat-specific costs to movement for O. pumilio and Craugastor bransfodrii, and then used experimental results to parameterize connectivity models. Model validation indicated highest support for resistance estimates generated from responses to land-use specific microclimates for both species and to predator encounters for O. pumilio. Finally, I used abundance and experiment-derived resistance estimates to analyze the effects of prevalent land uses on population genetic structure of the two focal species. While O. pumilio did not exhibit a strong response to landscape heterogeneity and was primarily structured by distances among sites, C. bransfordii genetic variation was explained by resistance estimates from abundance and experiment data. Collectivity, this work demonstrates that common land uses can offer different levels of resistance to amphibian movements in Sarapiquí and illustrates the value of investigating local scales processes to inform interpretation of landscape-scale patterns.