Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Statistical modeling of bowing control applied to violin sound synthesis

Excitation-continuous music instrument control patterns are often not explicitly represented in current sound synthesis techniques when applied to automatic performance. Both physical model-based and sample-based synthesis paradigmswould benefit from a flexible and accurate instrument control model, enabling the improvement of naturalness and realism. Wepresent a framework for modeling bowing control parameters inviolin performance. Nearly non-intrusive sensing techniques allow for accurate acquisition of relevant timbre-related bowing control parameter signals.We model the temporal contour of bow velocity, bow pressing force, and bow-bridge distance as sequences of short Bézier cubic curve segments. Considering different articulations, dynamics, and performance contexts, a number of note classes are defined. Contours of bowing parameters in a performance database are analyzed at note-level by following a predefined grammar that dictates characteristics of curve segment sequences for each of the classes in consideration. As a result, contour analysis of bowing parameters of each note yields an optimal representation vector that is sufficient for reconstructing original contours with significant fidelity. From the resulting representation vectors, we construct a statistical model based on Gaussian mixtures suitable for both the analysis and synthesis of bowing parameter contours. By using the estimated models, synthetic contours can be generated through a bow planning algorithm able to reproduce possible constraints caused by the finite length of the bow. Rendered contours are successfully used in two preliminary synthesis frameworks: digital waveguide-based bowed stringphysical modeling and sample-based spectral-domain synthesis.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa Volume III: Recommended Resistance Factors with Consideration of Construction Control and Setup, TR-584, 2012

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandated utilizing the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach for all new bridges initiated in the United States after October 1, 2007. As a result, there has been a progressive move among state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) toward an increased use of the LRFD in geotechnical design practices. For the above reasons, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) sponsored three research projects: TR-573, TR-583 and TR-584. The research information is summarized in the project web site (http://srg.cce.iastate.edu/lrfd/). Two reports of total four volumes have been published. Report volume I by Roling et al. (2010) described the development of a user-friendly and electronic database (PILOT). Report volume II by Ng et al. (2011) summarized the 10 full-scale field tests conducted throughout Iowa and data analyses. This report presents the development of regionally calibrated LRFD resistance factors for bridge pile foundations in Iowa based on reliability theory, focusing on the strength limit states and incorporating the construction control aspects and soil setup into the design process. The calibration framework was selected to follow the guidelines provided by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), taking into consideration the current local practices. The resistance factors were developed for general and in-house static analysis methods used for the design of pile foundations as well as for dynamic analysis methods and dynamic formulas used for construction control. The following notable benefits to the bridge foundation design were attained in this project: 1) comprehensive design tables and charts were developed to facilitate the implementation of the LRFD approach, ensuring uniform reliability and consistency in the design and construction processes of bridge pile foundations; 2) the results showed a substantial gain in the factored capacity compared to the 2008 AASHTO-LRFD recommendations; and 3) contribution to the existing knowledge, thereby advancing the foundation design and construction practices in Iowa and the nation.

Disseny i implementació d'un framework de persistència

Aquest projecte consisteix en la realització d'un framework de persistència per realitzar l'enllaç entre el model de dades relacional i el model de dades orientat a objectes. L'aplicació que implementarem per tal de provar el nostre framework consisteix en l'adaptació web d'un software financer que serveix per tenir un control de la tresoreria.

JXTA-Overlay P2P Platform and Its Application for Robot Control

The design of an efficient collaborative multirobot framework that ensures the autonomy and the individualrequirements of the involved robots is a very challenging task. This requires designing an efficient platform for inter-robot communication. P2P is a good approach to achieve this goal. P2P aims at making the communication ubiquitous thereby crossing the communication boundary and has many attractive features to use it as a platform for collaborative multi-robot environments. In this work, we present the JXTA Overlay P2P system and its application for robot control. Since JXTAOverlay is able to overcome Firewalls, Routers and NATs, it is possible to control end-devices in a WAN without changing the network security policy. We used JXTA-Overlay for the control of robot motors. We evaluated the proposed system by many experiments and have shown that the proposed system has a good performance and can be used successfully for the control of robot.

BEX Mejora continua framework

Memoria de la implementación de un software que permite la gestión y control de todo el framework que requiere gestionar el departamento de mejora continua (BEX Business Excelence).

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Implementing Role Based Access Control into the Enterprise Environment to Support Business and IT Functions

The thesis studies role based access control and its suitability in the enterprise environment. The aim is to research how extensively role based access control can be implemented in the case organization and how it support organization’s business and IT functions. This study points out the enterprise’s needs for access control, factors of access control in the enterprise environment and requirements for implementation and the benefits and challenges it brings along. To find the scope how extensively role based access control can be implemented into the case organization, firstly is examined the actual state of access control. Secondly is defined a rudimentary desired state (how things should be) and thirdly completed it by using the results of the implementation of role based access control application. The study results the role model for case organization unit, and the building blocks and the framework for the organization wide implementation. Ultimate value for organization is delivered by facilitating the normal operations of the organization whilst protecting its information assets.

Characterizing the vulnerability of frequent emergency department users by applying a conceptual framework: a controlled, cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Frequent emergency department (ED) users meet several of the criteria of vulnerability, but this needs to be further examined taking into consideration all vulnerability's different dimensions. This study aimed to characterize frequent ED users and to define risk factors of frequent ED use within a universal health care coverage system, applying a conceptual framework of vulnerability. METHODS: A controlled, cross-sectional study comparing frequent ED users to a control group of non-frequent users was conducted at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Frequent users were defined as patients with five or more visits to the ED in the previous 12 months. The two groups were compared using validated scales for each one of the five dimensions of an innovative conceptual framework: socio-demographic characteristics; somatic, mental, and risk-behavior indicators; and use of health care services. Independent t-tests, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, Pearson's Chi-squared test and Fisher's exact test were used for the comparison. To examine the -related to vulnerability- risk factors for being a frequent ED user, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: We compared 226 frequent users and 173 controls. Frequent users had more vulnerabilities in all five dimensions of the conceptual framework. They were younger, and more often immigrants from low/middle-income countries or unemployed, had more somatic and psychiatric comorbidities, were more often tobacco users, and had more primary care physician (PCP) visits. The most significant frequent ED use risk factors were a history of more than three hospital admissions in the previous 12 months (adj OR:23.2, 95%CI = 9.1-59.2), the absence of a PCP (adj OR:8.4, 95%CI = 2.1-32.7), living less than 5 km from an ED (adj OR:4.4, 95%CI = 2.1-9.0), and household income lower than USD 2,800/month (adj OR:4.3, 95%CI = 2.0-9.2). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent ED users within a universal health coverage system form a highly vulnerable population, when taking into account all five dimensions of a conceptual framework of vulnerability. The predictive factors identified could be useful in the early detection of future frequent users, in order to address their specific needs and decrease vulnerability, a key priority for health care policy makers. Application of the conceptual framework in future research is warranted.

Contextual factors multiplex to control multisensory processes.

This study analyzed high-density event-related potentials (ERPs) within an electrical neuroimaging framework to provide insights regarding the interaction between multisensory processes and stimulus probabilities. Specifically, we identified the spatiotemporal brain mechanisms by which the proportion of temporally congruent and task-irrelevant auditory information influences stimulus processing during a visual duration discrimination task. The spatial position (top/bottom) of the visual stimulus was indicative of how frequently the visual and auditory stimuli would be congruent in their duration (i.e., context of congruence). Stronger influences of irrelevant sound were observed when contexts associated with a high proportion of auditory-visual congruence repeated and also when contexts associated with a low proportion of congruence switched. Context of congruence and context transition resulted in weaker brain responses at 228 to 257 ms poststimulus to conditions giving rise to larger behavioral cross-modal interactions. Importantly, a control oddball task revealed that both congruent and incongruent audiovisual stimuli triggered equivalent non-linear multisensory interactions when congruence was not a relevant dimension. Collectively, these results are well explained by statistical learning, which links a particular context (here: a spatial location) with a certain level of top-down attentional control that further modulates cross-modal interactions based on whether a particular context repeated or changed. The current findings shed new light on the importance of context-based control over multisensory processing, whose influences multiplex across finer and broader time scales.

Developing a conceptual framework to analyse professionalisation in sport federations

Existing research on sport organisations is imprecise in the use of the concept 'professionalisation'. Furthermore, we do not know if analytical concepts of professionalisation correspond with the understanding in practice. This study explores the perceptions of practitioners and proposes a framework to analyse professionalisation in national sport federations. Expert interviews were conducted with six key people from Swiss national sport federations and then analysed these for characteristics of professionalisation using a hermeneutic approach. The characteristics were divided into three areas: (1) changed management philosophy, (2) functional differentiation and specialisation, and (3) application of management tools. However, professionalisation is primarily perceived to be a matter of 'professional' attitude that transforms into federation culture. The practitioners disclose an ambivalent view of professionalisation, e.g. business-like culture vs. voluntarism, for-profit vs. non-profit orientation, autonomy vs. control. A framework is developed that synthesises analytical concepts and practitioners' perceptions to support future comprehensive research into causes, forms and consequences of professionalisation in national sport federations.

The Design of a Software Lifecycle Management Framework to a Configuration Management System

Keeping track of software assets and managing software installations in IT environments can be a hard endeavor, especially when the size and diversity of the environment grows. How to install and uninstall software efficiently and cost effectively? Are there too few or too many software licenses purchased? If installed, is the software actually in use? Software Asset Management (SAM) is a process that involves managing and optimizing the purchase, deployment, maintenance, utilization, and disposal of software applications within an organization. This master’s thesis describes a special Software Lifecycle Management Framework to provide solutions to the multitude of challenges within SAM. The main objectives when designing the framework was to provide a set of tools to control the software assets during their entire lifecycle while trying to minimize the costs related to owning and managing them.

Analyzing Carbon Trade Permits in Optimization Framework

The threats caused by global warming motivate different stake holders to deal with and control them. This Master's thesis focuses on analyzing carbon trade permits in optimization framework. The studied model determines optimal emission and uncertainty levels which minimize the total cost. Research questions are formulated and answered by using different optimization tools. The model is developed and calibrated by using available consistent data in the area of carbon emission technology and control. Data and some basic modeling assumptions were extracted from reports and existing literatures. The data collected from the countries in the Kyoto treaty are used to estimate the cost functions. Theory and methods of constrained optimization are briefly presented. A two-level optimization problem (individual and between the parties) is analyzed by using several optimization methods. The combined cost optimization between the parties leads into multivariate model and calls for advanced techniques. Lagrangian, Sequential Quadratic Programming and Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm are referred to. The role of inherent measurement uncertainty in the monitoring of emissions is discussed. We briefly investigate an approach where emission uncertainty would be described in stochastic framework. MATLAB software has been used to provide visualizations including the relationship between decision variables and objective function values. Interpretations in the context of carbon trading were briefly presented. Suggestions for future work are given in stochastic modeling, emission trading and coupled analysis of energy prices and carbon permits.

Cost estimation framework for modular product

Cost estimation is an important, but challenging process when designing a new product or a feature of it, verifying the product prices given by suppliers or planning a cost saving actions of existing products. It is even more challenging when the product is highly modular, not a bulk product. In general, cost estimation techniques can be divided into two main groups - qualitative and quantitative techniques - which can further be classified into more detailed methods. Generally, qualitative techniques are preferable when comparing alternatives and quantitative techniques when cost relationships can be found. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a method on how to estimate costs of internally manufactured and commercial elevator landing doors. Because of the challenging product structure, the proposed cost estimation framework is developed under three different levels based on past cost information available. The framework consists of features from both qualitative and quantitative cost estimation techniques. The starting point for the whole cost estimation process is an unambiguous, hierarchical product structure so that the product can be classified into controllable parts and is then easier to handle. Those controllable parts can then be compared to existing past cost knowledge of similar parts and create as accurate cost estimates as possible by that way.