Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term in ation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on iflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover the relationship between in ation pass through and various explanatory variables. We relate our empirical results to theoretical models of anchored, contained and unmoored inflation expectations. For neither country do we find anchored or unmoored inflation expectations. For the US, contained inflation expectations are found. For the UK, our ndings are not consistent with the specifi =c model of contained inflation expectations presented here, but are consistent with a more broad view of expectations being constrained by the existence of an inflation target.

Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilibrium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have important implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.

Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations are not Rational?

This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. We show that Ricardian Equivalence continues to hold provided suitable additional conditions on learning dynamics are satisfied. However, new cases of failure can also emerge under learning. In particular, for Ricardian Equivalence to obtain, agents’ expectations must not depend on government’s financial variables under deficit financing.

The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion

We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a ‘convergence-trade’ model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in countryspecific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.

The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: fundamentals, expectations and contagion

In a research project conducted while visiting the DG-ECFIN in June 2010, we provided a detailed empirical investigation of the EMU sovereign-debt crisis up to February 2010.

Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation

‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.

Expectations Traps and Coordination Failures with Discretionary Policymaking

Discretionary policymakers cannot manage private-sector expectations and cannot coordinate the actions of future policymakers. As a consequence, expectations traps and coordination failures can occur and multiple equilibria can arise. To utilize the explanatory power of models with multiple equilibria it is first necessary to understand how an economy arrives to a particular equilibrium. In this paper we employ notions of learnability and self-enforceability to motivate and identify equilibria of particular interest. Central among these criteria are whether the equilibrium is learnable by private agents and jointly learnable by private agents and the policymaker. We use two New Keynesian policy models to identify the strategic interactions that give rise to multiple equilibria and to illustrate our methods for identifying equilibria of interest. Importantly, unless the Pareto-preferred equilibrium is learnable by private agents, we find little reason to expect coordination on that equilibrium.

Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scienti cally valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

Consumers’ sensory acceptability of pork from immunocastrated male pigs

Boar taint is the off-odour or off flavour of cooked pork. Currently, the most common method of controlling boar taint is surgical castration. However, immunocastration has been used in some parts of the world as an alternative to surgical castration. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensory acceptability of meat from immunocastrated pigs (IM) compared with meat from females (FE), surgically castrated (CM) and entire males (EM). Twenty animals of each type were evaluated by 201 consumers in 20 sessions. Longissimus thoracis muscle of the different animals was cooked in an oven at 180 °C for 10 min. Consumers scored the odour and the flavour of the meat in a 9-point category scale without an intermediate level. There were no significant differences in consumer’s evaluation of meat from IM, CM, and FE. In contrast, EM meat presented a higher percentage of dissatisfied scores and was significantly (P & 0.05) less accepted than meat from CM, IM and FE. Consumers’ acceptability of EM meat was always lower, independently of its androstenone levels. However meat with low levels of androstenone was more accepted that meat with medium or high levels of this substance. It can be concluded that immunocastration produced pork that was accepted by the consumers, and was indistinguishable from pork from CM or FE.

Dietary supplements utilization: an explanatory survey among Swiss consumers

Dietary supplement (DS) use increased rapidly over the last years. However evidence of benefits of many DS for healthy users are scarce and may not equate known risks of overdose, drug interaction and recently discovered negative long-term effects. Therefore this study aimed to investigate perceptions and motivations of DS users in Lausanne, Switzerland. Method A convenience sample was recruited at the entrance of local sales points. Data were collected in on-site semi-structured interviews to assess dietary supplementation habits. Results The 119 participants provided information on 147 users. Among 273 declared products, the majority were mixed products, containing minerals and vitamins (78), mineral products (69), and herbal products (28). 55% of DS users took more than one product simultaneously. Seventy five percent of participants indicated that DS use presents no risk or nearly no risk and about half (49%) of participants did not inform their physician about their consumption. Male participants reported to share this information with their physicians significantly less frequently than female participants (p = 0.008). About half of participants looked for information on potential risks of DS, men significantly more often than women (p=0.001). Discussion According to other studies in the US, our study shows that, in Lausanne (Switzerland), DS are commonly used as mixed products. Risk perception seems generally low among DS users. Implications Physicians should be trained to evaluate patientsʼ health behaviour and needs in order to provide good evidence based information or propose alternatives to DS use.

Phylogenetic Code in the Cloud - Can it Meet the Expectations?

Cloud computing has recently become very popular, and several bioinformatics applications exist already in that domain. The aim of this article is to analyse a current cloud system with respect to usability, benchmark its performance and compare its user friendliness with a conventional cluster job submission system. Given the current hype on the theme, user expectations are rather high, but current results show that neither the price/performance ratio nor the usage model is very satisfactory for large-scale embarrassingly parallel applications. However, for small to medium scale applications that require CPU time at certain peak times the cloud is a suitable alternative.

Use of neuroenhancement drugs: prevalence, frequency and use expectations in Switzerland

Objective: The present study investigates the use expectations, prevalence and frequency of neuroenhancement drug (ND) use among the Swiss male population, separating college students from others. Methods: Young Swiss men were invited to participate in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. A total of 5,967 participants responded to questions on six types of NDs (wakefulness medication, antidepressants, Alzheimer's disease medication, Parkinson's disease medication, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication, and beta-blockers). The frequency of use depending on five expectations (to enhance wakefulness, attention, memory, concentration and stress reduction) was analyzed for a twelve-month period. Results: (1) About 3% of the sample indicated use of at least one ND; (2) ADHD medication was the most prevalent; (3) The type of ND preferred differed depending on academic status (4). Quantitatively, over the year, college student users used ND much less frequently than other users. Conclusions: Prevalence of ND use is low in Switzerland relative to other countries such as the United States. Patterns of ND use differed depending on academic status, suggesting that while college student ND users tended to do so rarely (probably to enhance cognitive abilities for exams), non-college male users used other NDs more frequently (probably to "get high").

Decomposing the Tourist’s Satisfaction Gap: The Role of Expectations and Cognitions

In this paper we present an empirical methodology that allows the tourist’s satisfaction gap between two destinations to be decomposed into two components. One explains the role of differences in observed characteristics of the tourists and the stay (endowments). The other captures the share of the gap due to differences in the utility that tourists derive from those characteristics (cognitive). To illustrate the use of this method, we employ data coming from a sample of tourists visiting two touristic enclaves in Tarragona (Spain). Our results indicate that the cognitive component explains most of the satisfaction gap. Keywords: Satisfaction, expectations, cognition, touristic destination