Integrative taxonomy of the Formica rufa group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

RESUME :Les fourmis du groupe Formica rufa, ou fourmis des bois, ainsi appelées en raison de leur préférence pour les écosystèmes forestiers, sont parmi les fourmis les plus fascinantes et les plus étudiées d'Europe. Ces fourmis jouent un rôle clé dans la plupart des forêts dans lesquelles elles vivent et sont considérées comme étant les meilleurs bioindicateurs de ces milieux. Pour ces raisons, les fourmis des bois sont protégées par la loi dans de nombreux pays européens, y compris en Suisse. Cependant, malgré leur protection, ces fourmis sont inscrites sur la liste rouge des espèces menacées dans plusieurs pays d'Europe et il est donc indispensable de bien les connaître afin de mieux les protéger.À l'heure actuelle, on considère que le groupe Formica rufa est composé de six espèces distinctes : F. rufa, F. polyctena, F. lugubris, F. paralugubris, F. aquilonia et F. pratensis. Toutefois, malgré la grande quantité d'études effectuées sur ces espèces, la systématique et l'identification des fourmis des bois sont toujours sujettes à discussion. Ceci est essentiellement dû au fait que ces espèces sont morphologiquement similaires et qu'elles sont parfois capables de s'hybrider ou de former des colonies mixtes.Une des conditions fondamentales pour toute étude en biologie de la conservation est l'identification correcte des espèces à protéger. Avec cette étude, nous désirons donc dénouer les problèmes liés à la systématique des fourmis des bois et analyser la diversité de ces espèces en adoptant une approche multidisciplinaire.Nous avons d'abord étudié la distribution des espèces jumelles F. lugubris et F. paralugubris dans les Álpes italiennes en re-analysant l'une des plus grandes collections de références sur ces espèces, déposée à l'Université de Pavie, Italie, et en récoltant de nouveaux échantillons sur le terrain. Nos analyses ont montré que F, paralugubris, décrite récemment et souvent «oubliée »par les chercheurs, est bien présente dans les Alpes et vit souvent en sympathie avec F. lugubris. Ensuite nous avons développé un outil moléculaire basé sur l'ADN mitochondrial pour une identification rapide et efficace de ces deux espèces. Au vu des bons résultats, nous avons étendu nos analyses génétiques (microsatellites) à toutes les espèces du groupe F. rufa, ce qui nous a permis de montrer que les outils moléculaires sont très efficaces pour identifier ces fourmis. En outre, nos analyses ont mis en évidence la présence d'une nouvelle espèce cryptique (appelée F. lugubris-X) au sein du Parc National Suisse. L'existence d'une nouvelle espèce peut avoir une grande influence sur les projets de conservation en faveur de ces espèces. Nous avons donc décidé de confirmer ce résultat avec des analyses comportementales et des analyses chimiques basées sur les phéromones sexuelles des différentes espèces, y compris F. lugubris-X. Les deux approches confirment nos données génétiques et indiquent que F. lugubris-X représente bel et bien une nouvelle espèce de fourmis des bois dans les Alpes Suisses.Les résultats de cette étude ont une grande importance du point de vue de la biodiversité. En plus, ils livrent aux futurs chercheurs des outils fiables pour l'identification des fourmis des bois et ouvrent de captivantes perspectives pour une meilleure protection de ces insectes et, par conséquent, de nos écosystèmes forestiers. .Abstract :Mound building red wood ants (species of the Formica rufa group) belong to one of the most studied groups of ants in Europe and have fundamental roles and positive effects in forested habitats of the northern hemisphere. In addition, they are considered among the most promising bioindicators of forest ecosystems. Because of their importance, these ants are protected by law in many European countries, including Switzerland. However, despite this protection, they are included on the red list of threatened species edited by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and on the red list of some particular countries like Switzerland. Because of their similar morphology and a high intraspecific variability, the morphological identification of these species can be quite complicated. In addition, they are sometimes able to hybridize or to form mixed colonies. Consequently, the taxonomy of this group of ants has been much debated during the past decades. Based on a phylogenetic study, today the group is considered to count six species in Europe: F. rufa, F. po/yctena, F. lugubris, F. paralugubris, F. aquilonia and F. pratensis. Nevertheless, the taxonomy of the group is often neglected mainly due to the lack of reliable and easy to use identification methods.Considering the importance of correct species assessment in conservation biology, in this study we want to disentangle the taxonomical difficulties within the Formica rufa group and to clarify the diversity of these protected ants, by using an integrative approach.We first analyzed the distribution of .the sibling species F. lugubris and F. paralugubris in the Italian Alps by collecting new samples on the field and by examining one of the major red wood ant collections, which is deposited at the University of Pavia, Italy. After that, we developed a molecular tool based on mitochondria) DNA, which provides a reliable and easy-to-use technique for the identification of F. lugubris and F. paralugubris. Afterwards, we extended the use of molecular markers for species identification to the whole F. rufa group and made a microsatellite analysis. Results confirm that molecular markers are consistent tools for species identification and that the six known species represent six different genetic pools. In addition, genetic data highlighted the existence of a new cryptic species in the Swiss Alps, called Formica lugubris-X.The presence of a new species can have a great influence on future conservation plans in favour of these protected ants and consequently for forested habitats. We therefore completed molecular data by behavioural (pupae recognition) and chemical analyses based on six pheromones of the entire F. rufa group. Both approaches are in accordance to genetic results and confirm that F. lugubris-X really represents a new cryptic species of red wood ant within the Swiss National Park (Eastern Swiss Alps).Results obtained in this study have a great importance in terms of biodiversity. Moreover, they provide important taxonomical information, reliable tools for species identifications and future perspectives for a consequent conservation of red wood ant species.

Perspective: from molecular endocrinology of mouse to genomic endocrinology of animals.

This short perspective explores some ways in which new genomic methodologies impact the study of endocrine signaling. Emphasis is put on the impact of studying species which are not molecular biology models. This opens the door to using knowledge molecular endocrinology in areas of biology as distant as conservation biology, as well as enriching endocrinology with information from biodiversity and natural variation.

Opportunity for sexual selection and effective population size in the lek-breeding European treefrog (Hyla arborea).

Sexual selection in lek-breeding species might drastically lower male effective population size, with potentially important consequences for evolutionary and conservation biology. Using field-monitoring and parental-assignment methods, we analyzed sex-specific variances in breeding success in a population of European treefrogs, to (1) help understanding the dynamics of genetic variance at sex-specific loci, and (2) better quantify the risk posed by genetic drift in this species locally endangered by habitat fragmentation. The variance in male mating success turned out to be markedly lower than values obtained from other amphibian species with polygamous mating systems. The ratio of effective breeding size to census breeding size was only slightly lower in males (0.44) than in females (0.57), in line with the patterns of genetic diversity previously reported from H. arborea sex chromosomes. Combining our results with data on age at maturity and adult survival, we show that the negative effect of the mating system is furthermore compensated by the effect of delayed maturity, so that the estimated instantaneous effective size broadly corresponded to census breeding size. We conclude that the lek-breeding system of treefrogs impacts only weakly the patterns of genetic diversity on sex-linked genes and the ability of natural populations to resist genetic drift.

Effects of cognitive abilities on metapopulation connectivity

Connectivity among demes in a metapopulation depends on both the landscape's and the focal organism's properties (including its mobility and cognitive abilities). Using individual-based simulations, we contrast the consequences of three different cognitive strategies on several measures of metapopulation connectivity. Model animals search suitable habitat patches while dispersing through a model landscape made of cells varying in size, shape, attractiveness and friction. In the blind strategy, the next cell is chosen randomly among the adjacent ones. In the near-sighted strategy, the choice depends on the relative attractiveness of these adjacent cells. In the far-sighted strategy, animals may additionally target suitable patches that appear within their perceptual range. Simulations show that the blind strategy provides the best overall connectivity, and results in balanced dispersal. The near-sighted strategy traps animals into corridors that reduce the number of potential targets, thereby fragmenting metapopulations in several local clusters of demes, and inducing sink-source dynamics. This sort of local trapping is somewhat prevented in the far-sighted strategy. The colonization success of strategies depends highly on initial energy reserves: blind does best when energy is high, near-sighted wins at intermediate levels, and far-sighted outcompetes its rivals at low energy reserves. We also expect strong effects in terms of metapopulation genetics: the blind strategy generates a migrant-pool mode of dispersal that should erase local structures. By contrast, near- and far-sighted strategies generate a propagule-pool mode of dispersal and source-sink behavior that should boost structures (high genetic variance among- and low variance within local clusters of demes), particularly if metapopulation dynamics is also affected by extinction-colonization processes. Our results thus point to important effects of the cognitive ability of dispersers on the connectivity, dynamics and genetics of metapopulations.

Using niche-based models to improve the sampling of rare species

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

Extreme population differentiation in vulnerable slavemaking ant with fragmented distribution

Understanding levels of population differentiation and inbreeding are important issues in conservation biology, especially for social Hymenoptera with fragmented and small population sizes. Isolated populations are more vulnerable to genetic loss and extinction than those with extended continuous distributions. However, small populations are not always a consequence of a recent reduction of their habitat. Thus, determining the history of population isolation and current patterns of genetic variation of a species is crucial for its conservation. Rossomyrmex minuchae is a slave-making ant with patchy distribution in South Eastern Spain and is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN. In contrast, the other three known species of the genus are presumed to show more uniform distributions. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of R. minuchae and compare it with that found in two other species of the genus: R. anatolicus and R. quandratinodum. We conclude that although genetic diversity of R. minuchae is low, there is no evidence of a recent bottleneck, suggesting a gradual and natural fragmentation process. We also show extreme population differentiation at nuclear and mitochondrial markers, and isolation by distance at a local scale. Despite some evidence for inbreeding and low genetic variation within populations, we found almost no diploid males, a finding which contrasts with that expected in inbred Hymenoptera with single locus complementary sex determination. This could mean that sex is determined by another mechanism. We argue that continued low population size means that detrimental effects of inbreeding and low genetic variation are likely in the future. We suggest that a policy of artificial gene flow aimed at increasing within population variation is considered as a management option.

Crònica (il·lustrada) d’un viatge al paradís: expedició a les Illes Salvatges

Entre l’11 i el 27 de març va tenir lloc l’expedició “Savage Islands Botanical Expedition 2013 – Expedição Botânica Ilhas Selvagens 2013”, que va constituir un dels moments més àlgids i alhora emocionants del projecte “Conservation of the critically endangered endemic flora of the Selvagens Islands, Atlantic Ocean”, finançat per The Mohammed bin Zayed Species Conservation Fund (http://www.speciesconservation.org/). Aquest projecte se centra en l’estudi de tres endemismes exclusius de l’arxipèlag de les Salvatges greument amenaçats, amb l’objectiu final d’implementar mesures efectives per a la seva conservació (vegeu http://www.speciesconservation.org/case‐studies‐projects//1651 per a més informació). Aquests tres endemismes (Euphorbia anachoreta, Asparagus nesiotes subsp. nesiotes i Argyranthemum thalassophilum) compten amb molts pocs efectius (abans de l’expedició s’estimava una mida poblacional inferior a la cinquantena per als dos primers, i de menys de 250 per al darrer) i tenen un gran interès des del punt de vista biogeogràfic atesos l’aïllament de l’arxipèlag (el territori terrestre més proper són les Illes Canàries, situades a uns 165 quilòmetres al sud) i la seva antiguitat geològica (prop de 30 milions d’anys, essent l’arxipèlag més antic de tota la Macaronèsia; Geldmacher et al., 2001).

Genetic bottlenecks driven by population disconnection.

Connectivity among populations plays a crucial role in maintaining genetic variation at a local scale, especially in small populations affected strongly by genetic drift. The negative consequences of population disconnection on allelic richness and gene diversity (heterozygosity) are well recognized and empirically established. It is not well recognized, however, that a sudden drop in local effective population size induced by such disconnection produces a temporary disequilibrium in allelic frequency distributions that is akin to the genetic signature of a demographic bottleneck. To document this effect, we used individual-based simulations and empirical data on allelic richness and gene diversity in six pairs of isolated versus well-connected (core) populations of European tree frogs. In our simulations, population disconnection depressed allelic richness more than heterozygosity and thus resulted in a temporary excess in gene diversity relative to mutation drift equilibrium (i.e., signature of a genetic bottleneck). We observed a similar excess in gene diversity in isolated populations of tree frogs. Our results show that population disconnection can create a genetic bottleneck in the absence of demographic collapse.

Within- and among-population impact of genetic erosion on adult fitness-related traits in the European tree frog Hyla arborea.

Assessing in wild populations how fitness is impacted by inbreeding and genetic drift is a major goal for conservation biology. An approach to measure the detrimental effects of inbreeding on fitness is to estimate correlations between molecular variation and phenotypic performances within and among populations. Our study investigated the effect of individual multilocus heterozygosity on body size, body condition and reproductive investment of males (that is, chorus attendance) and females (that is, clutch mass and egg size) in both small fragmented and large non-fragmented populations of European tree frog (Hyla arborea). Because adult size and/or condition and reproductive investment are usually related, genetic erosion may have detrimental effects directly on reproductive investment, and also on individual body size and condition that in turn may affect reproductive investment. We confirmed that the reproductive investment was highly size-dependent for both sexes. Larger females invested more in offspring production, and larger males attended the chorus in the pond more often. Our results did not provide evidence for a decline in body size, condition and reproductive effort with decreased multilocus heterozygosity both within and among populations. We showed that the lack of heterozygosity-fitness correlations within populations probably resulted from low inbreeding levels (inferior to ca. 20% full-sib mating rate), even in the small fragmented populations. The detrimental effects of fixation load were either low in adults or hidden by environmental variation among populations. These findings will be useful to design specific management actions to improve population persistence.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

A melting pot world of species : reply to Speziale et al.

Native plants and animals are a natural heritage threatened by one of the six greatest extinction events in Earth's history. Humans, through habitat transformation, exploitation, and species introductions, are driving this extinction event. To turn this tide, Speziale et al. (2014) suggest reducing human dependence on non-native species by increasing the use, harvest, planting, and raising of native species, thereby increasing their cultural and economic value. The search for new or under-appreciated uses of native species is laudable, especially if it helps protect them and contributes to local cultural diversity. Such efforts are arguably an inherent trait of human curiosity and entrepreneurship and are a central platform of popular movements such as slow foods and native gardening. However, Speziale et al.'s hypothesis - that using native species can protect them - is less simple than they suggest. We refute the idea of nativism that underpins Speziale et al.'s proposal and makes it poorly defensible and considered the unaddressed consequences of the proposal for people and for conservation.

Effect of biogeographic history on population vulnerability in European amphibians.

The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental-scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta-analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post-glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post-glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists.

Does phylogeographic structure relate to climatic niche divergence? A test using maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.)

Aim To disentangle the effects of environmental and geographical processes driving phylogenetic distances among clades of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster). To assess the implications for conservation management of combining molecular information with species distribution models (SDMs; which predict species distribution based on known occurrence records and on environmental variables). Location Western Mediterranean Basin and European Atlantic coast. Methods We undertook two cluster analyses for eight genetically defined pine clades based on climatic niche and genetic similarities. We assessed niche similarity by means of a principal component analysis and Schoener's D metric. To calculate genetic similarity, we used the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean based on Nei's distance using 266 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We then assessed the contribution of environmental and geographical distances to phylogenetic distance by means of Mantel regression with variance partitioning. Finally, we compared the projection obtained from SDMs fitted from the species level (SDMsp) and composed from the eight clade-level models (SDMcm). Results Genetically and environmentally defined clusters were identical. Environmental and geographical distances explained 12.6% of the phylogenetic distance variation and, overall, geographical and environmental overlap among clades was low. Large differences were detected between SDMsp and SDMcm (57.75% of disagreement in the areas predicted as suitable). Main conclusions The genetic structure within the maritime pine subspecies complex is primarily a consequence of its demographic history, as seen by the high proportion of unexplained variation in phylogenetic distances. Nevertheless, our results highlight the contribution of local environmental adaptation in shaping the lower-order, phylogeographical distribution patterns and spatial genetic structure of maritime pine: (1) genetically and environmentally defined clusters are consistent, and (2) environment, rather than geography, explained a higher proportion of variation in phylogenetic distance. SDMs, key tools in conservation management, better characterize the fundamental niche of the species when they include molecular information.

Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.