Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

Short communication: differential immunoglobulin transfer during mastitis challenge by pathogen-specific components

Mastitis induced by Escherichia coli is often characterized by severe clinical signs, indicating a more powerful combat of the immune system against the pathogen compared with Staphylococcus aureus infections, which are often represented by chronic and subclinical diseases. The aim of this study was to test the major pathogenic component lipopolysaccharide (LPS) from E. coli and lipoteichoic acid (LTA) from Staph. aureus for their effects on blood-milk barrier integrity and the related transfer of immunoglobulins and lactate from blood into milk. A similar somatic cell count (SCC) increase was achieved by intramammary challenge of 1 quarter of 5 cows with 20 µg of LTA, and 8 cows with 0.2 µg of LPS (maximum log SCC/mL: 7). Milk IgG(1) concentrations increased in LPS- but not in LTA-challenged quarters. Milk IgG(2) concentrations were increased in treated quarters at 3h after LPS, and 6h after LTA challenge. Higher maximum levels of IgG(2) were reached in milk of LPS-treated quarters (173 ± 58 μg/mL) than of LTA-challenged quarters (62 ± 13 μg/mL). Immunoglobulin G(1) and IgG(2) levels did not change in control quarters. l-Lactate concentrations in milk increased 4h after LPS and 5h after LTA challenge and reached higher maximum levels in LPS- (221 ± 48 mg/L) than in LTA-treated quarters (77 ± 18 mg/L). In conclusion, a mammary inflammation on a quantitatively similar level based on SCC increase achieves a more efficient transfer of blood components such as IgG(2) via the blood-milk barrier if induced by LPS from E. coli than by LTA from Staph. aureus. This pathogen-specific difference may play an important role in the cure rate of the respective intramammary infection, which is usually lower in Staph. aureus- than in E. coli-induced mastitis.

Effect of intramammary administration of prednisolone on the blood-milk barrier during the immune response of the mammary gland to lipopolysaccharide

OBJECTIVE: To investigate effects of intramammary administration of prednisolone on the immune response of mammary glands in cows. ANIMALS: 5 lactating Red Holsteins. PROCEDURES: Cows received a different intramammary infusion in each mammary gland (10 mg of prednisolone, 100 μg of lipopolysaccharide [LPS], 100 μg of LPS and 10 mg of prednisolone, or saline [0.9% NaCl] solution). Milk samples were collected before (time 0) and 3, 6, 9, 12, 24, and 36 hours after treatment. Somatic cell count (SCC), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity, and concentrations of serum albumin (SA) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α in milk and mRNA expression of TNF-α, interleukin (IL)-8, and IL-1β in milk somatic cells were analyzed. RESULTS: Saline solution or prednisolone did not change SCC, LDH activity, and SA and TNF-α concentrations in milk and mRNA expression of TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-8 in milk somatic cells. The SCC and TNF-α concentration in milk increased similarly in glands infused with LPS, independent of prednisolone administration. However, the increase of LDH activity and SA concentration in milk after LPS infusion was diminished by prednisolone administration. The mRNA expression of TNF-α, IL-8, and IL-1β in milk somatic cells increased after LPS infusion and was unaffected by prednisolone. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Intramammary administration of prednisolone did not induce an immune response and did not change mRNA expression of TNF-α, IL-8, and L-1β during the response to intramammary administration of LPS. However, prednisolone reduced disruption of the blood-milk barrier. This could influence the severity and cure rate of mastitis.

Salivary cortisol, psychological stress and depressive symptoms among patients undergoing colon cancer screenings

As the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States, colon cancer has a high cure rate if detected early by a colonoscopy (U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group, 2007). However, more than 41 million at-risk Americans are not properly receiving colonoscopy screenings according to the recommendations of the Center for Disease Control. This study provides insight into the physiological and psychological benefits of the colonoscopy procedure over and above cancer detection and prevention. Thirty-six patients receiving colonoscopic screening at the University of Connecticut Health Center participated in this study. A questionnaire battery that assessed perceived stress, depressive symptoms, colon cancer related worry, and social support, and optional saliva sampling was completed 2 weeks prior to and post colonoscopy. It was hypothesized that salivary cortisol concentrations, perceived stress, and self-reported depressive symptoms would show significant decreases from pre to post colonoscopy, and that these variables would all be positively correlated with one another. Results showed significant, positive correlations between depressive symptoms and both salivary cortisol (r (34)= .348, p< .05) and perceived stress (r (34)= .635, p< .01). Morning salivary cortisol levels decreased significantly from pre to post colonoscopy to levels below the population mean (t (16)=-3.711, p<. 01). No such differences were observed in either perceived stress or depressive symptoms. These results indicate that by decreasing cortisol concentrations to levels below that of the population mean, the colonoscopy provided physiological health benefits to patients beyond cancer screening. From a health psychology standpoint, this may encourage some of the 41 million Americans not receiving proper colon cancer screenings to adopt this potentially life-saving health behavior.

Azithromycin efficacy in treatment of Chlamydia trachomatis

Adolescents 15 – 19 years of age have the highest prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis out of any age group, reaching 28.3% among detained youth [1]. The 2010 Center for Disease Control guidelines recommend one dose of azithromycin for the treatment of uncomplicated chlamydia infections based on 97% cure rate with azithromycin. Recent studies found an 8% or higher failure rate of azithromycin treatment in adolescents [2-5]. We conducted a prospective study beginning May, 2012 in the Harris County Juvenile Justice Center (HCJJC) medical department. Study subjects were detainees with positive urine NAAT tests for chlamydia on intake. We provided treatment with Azithromycin, completed questionnaires assessing risk factors and performed a test of cure for chlamydia three weeks after successful treatment. Those with treatment failure (positive TOC) received doxycycline for seven days. The preliminary results summarized herein are based on data collected from May 2012 to January 2013. Of the 97 youth enrolled in the study to date, 4 (4.1%) experienced treatment failure after administration of Azithromycin. Of these four patients, all were male, African-American and asymptomatic at the time of initial diagnosis and treatment. Of note, 37 (38%) patients in the cohort complained of abdominal pain with administration of Azithromycin. Results to date suggest that the efficacy of Azithromycin in our study is higher than the recent reported studies indicating a possible upper bound of Azithromycin. These results are preliminary and recruitment will continue until a sample size of 127 youth is reached.^

Variáveis associadas a não adesão à terapia medicamentosa em idosos hipertensos e com comorbidades de uma unidade pública de saúde de Ribeirão Preto-SP

A adesão ao tratamento ocorre quando o conselho médico ou de saúde coincide com o comportamento do indivíduo, ao uso de medicamentos, cumprimento da dieta e mudanças no estilo de vida, não sendo, portanto, um ato não passivo do paciente. Em pacientes com hipertensão arterial sistêmica a adesão ao tratamento pode ser definida como o grau de cumprimento das medidas terapêuticas indicadas, sejam elas medicamentosas ou não, com o objetivo de manter a pressão arterial em níveis pressóricos normais. A não adesão em pacientes com doenças crônicas em tratamento a longo prazo em países desenvolvidos é em média de 50%, revelando a importância de serem avaliados os motivos que levam a esse comportamento. O estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a não adesão em idosos hipertensos de uma unidade pública de saúde de Ribeirão Preto - SP. Trata-se de um estudo de corte transversal, desenvolvido com uma amostra de 196 pessoas. A coleta de dados ocorreu entre agosto de 2014 até junho de 2015, após aprovação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa. Para essa etapa foram utilizados os instrumentos Brief Medication Questionnaire, Medical Outcomes Studies 36-item Short Form Survey, Escore de Risco Global e Escore de Risco pelo Tempo de Vida. Após a coleta dos dados, as entrevistas foram codificadas, os dados foram tabulados e foi realizada a análise estatística descritiva e de correlação. Como resultado, constatou-se que houve predomínio de mulheres, com idade média de 69,4 anos, casados/união estável, não moravam sozinhos, com 1,85 pessoas na casa em média, de cor branca, com ensino fundamental incompleto, renda de até dois salários mínimos e aposentados/pensionistas, atendidos pelo SUS. Apresentaram hábitos de vida razoáveis, sem predomínio de consumo de bebidas alcoólicas, tabagismo, uso excessivo de sal e sedentarismo. A mais frequente comorbidade associada à HAS foi a dislipidemia. Foi observado elevado predomínio de fatores de risco cardiovasculares como obesidade abdominal, obesidade geral, comorbidades, razão de lipídeos e fatores agravantes como proteína c reativa ultrassensível, microalbuminúria e síndrome metabólica. A maioria da amostra foi classificada como sendo portador de risco cardiovascular alto após estratificação do risco. A percepção da qualidade de vida relacionada à saúde foi considerada baixa na maioria principalmente devido a limitações emocionais. A não adesão esteve presente em quase metade dos idosos, relacionada principalmente à complexidade da farmacoterapia e dificuldade em lembrar sobre o uso de seus medicamentos. Não foi observada correlação entre a não adesão e as variáveis estudadas. Conclui-se que o comportamento de não adesão observado não esteve relacionada às variáveis estudadas nessa amostra e que são necessárias intervenções urgentes para reduzir o risco cardiovascular e prevenir doenças cardiovasculares e mortalidade, bem como melhora da percepção da qualidade de vida relacionada à saúde.

Renal function and cardiovascular risk markers in a remote Australian Aboriginal community

Background. Australian Aborigines living in remote areas have exceedingly high rates of renal failure together with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. To examine the basis of this association, we studied markers of renal function and cardiovascular (CV) risk in a coastal Aboriginal community in a remote area of the Northern Territory of Australia. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence rates in that community are 15 times the national non-Aboriginal rate and CV mortality rates in the region are increased 5-fold. Methods. A cross-sectional community survey was conducted. Markers of early renal disease examined included urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), serum creatinine concentration and calculated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CV risk markers included blood pressure as well as measures of glycaemia, diabetes and serum lipids. Results. The study group included 237 people, 58% of the adult population of the community. The crude prevalence of microalbuminuria (urine ACR: 3.4-33.9 g/mol, 30-299 mg/g) was 31% and of overt albuminuria (urine ACR: greater than or equal to34 g/mol, greater than or equal to300 mg/g), 13%. The prevalence of overt albuminuria increased with age, but the prevalence of microalbuminuria was greatest in the 45-54 year age group. Microalbuminuria was associated with increasing body mass index, whereas overt albuminuria was associated with increasing glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and systolic blood pressure and a history of diabetes. The prevalence of elevated serum creatinine concentration (greater than or equal to120 mumol/l) was 10%. GFR (calculated using the MDRD equation) was <60 ml/min/1.73m(2) in 12% and 60-79 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in a further 36% of the study population. Although many people with albuminuria had well preserved GFRs, mean GFR was lower in people with higher levels of albuminuria. Conclusions. The high prevalence of markers of renal disease in this community was consistent with their high rates of ESRD. The distribution of microalbuminuria suggested a 'cohort effect', representing a group who will progress to overt albuminuria. The powerful association of renal disease markers with CV risk factors confirms a strong link between renal and CV disease in the early, asymptomatic stages of each. Thus, pathologic albuminuria, in part, might be a manifestation of the metabolic/haemodynamic syndrome and both conditions might arise out of a common menu of risk factors. Hence, a single agenda of primary and secondary intervention may benefit both.

Nonparametric Estimation in the Class of Bisexual Processes with Population-Size Dependent Mating

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 62M05

Frequência e significado clínico da expressão da glicoproteína P e da proteína relacionada a resistência a múltiplas drogas na leucemia mielóide aguda

Despite the advances in the cure rate for acute myeloid leukemia, a considerable number of patients die from their disease due to the occurrence of multidrug resistance (MDR). Overexpression of the transporter proteins P-glycoprotein (Pgp) and multidrug resistance-associated protein (MRP) confer resistance to the treatment these leukemias. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the expression of the Gpp and MRP1 in patients with AML by flow cytometry (FC) and to determine the correlation between expression and demographic and also clinical and laboratorial variables. METHODS: Bone marrow and peripheral blood samples from 346 patients with a diagnosis of AML were assessed for the expression of Pgp and MRP1 by FC. RESULTS: The expression of Pgp and MRP1 was found in 111 (32.1%) and 133 (38.4%) patients, respectively, with greater prevalence in older patients and lower in adolescents, observing also a high incidence in patients with refractory disease, recurrence and secondary in comparison with the cases of de novo AML. Regarding the laboratory findings, we observed a higher correlation statistically significant between the expression of Pgp and MRP1 in AML CD34+ and FAB AML M7, M5A and M2 and lower the M3 subtype, not observed statistically significant correlation between the phenotype MDR and other laboratory data such with hemoglobin, leukocyte count, platelet count, aberrant expression of lymphoid antigens (CD2, CD7 and CD19) and clinical signs related to the disease. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that the detection of MDR phenotype by flow cytometry can be a molecular marker for prognosis independent patients diagnosed with AML.

Perfis e práticas dos profissionais de saúde mental em dois hospitais psiquiátricos de grande porte

In the Brazilian network of psychosocial care, health professionals are important actors in the process of transformation of mental health public policies among various services. In the reality of psychiatric hospitals, one should understand the need to expand the debate about the current context of practices developed. This study aimed at analyzing the process of psychiatric reform and the mental health policy in the State of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) from the profiles and practices of higher-level professionals in two psychiatric hospitals. This is a cross-sectional and descriptive research, with quantitative and qualitative data, conducted in two psychiatric hospitals of RN. The universe of the target population was 95 professionals, taking into account the margin of error of 8%, non-response rate and the inclusion criteria: holding effective link with the institution by means of approval in public examination for, at least, six months, being state or municipal servant; having a minimum weekly workload of 20 hours in service; participating in care and/or activities with patients and families in a direct way. The final sample consisted of 60 professionals. The tool for data collection was a questionnaire with closed and semi-open questions about socioeconomic profile, and mental health policies, practices and training. Quantitative data were tabulated in the statistical software SPSS, and simple and bivariate statistics, chi-square type, was used for analysis by adopting the significance level with the value p<0,05. In order to analyze data, the content analysis of Bardin was used. The qualitative findings obtained with the semi-open questions in Analyse Lexicale par Context d'un Ensemble de Segments de Texte (ALCESTE) were grouped into four thematic axes: Professional action in mental health; Mental health training; Scenarios of psychiatric reform and psychiatric hospitals; Mental health policies and practices: challenges for professionals in hospitals. The profile of professionals has revealed the majority of women (89,7%), nurses (36,7%), aged 50-59 years (42,9%), weekly workload of 40 hours (52,4% ), time of completion of graduation from six to 15 years (57%), and 21,4% reported to have specialization in mental health. Regarding the practices developed in individual care, it was found an association between those who do not build or partially conducts the therapeutic project and those who conduct care related to observation and annotation. In family care, it was obtained care consultation during crisis; and, in group care, recreational activities. In the analysis of thematic axes, it was noted that, despite changes identified in the profiles and practices of higher-level professionals in care services for mental health, with the implementation of new public policies for this field, the findings indicate the confluence of asymmetries and divergences in the actions of the teams in psychiatric hospitals, difficulties in managing services, frequent readmissions, reduced quantitative of available services and equipment, high demand of users, disarticulation of the network of psychosocial care, and the very shortage of skilled human resources to compose these services. Accordingly, the evidenced scenarios partially outline the current political and ideological mismatch of the national process of psychiatric reform that denies the role of care actions conducted within hospitals, although it has not gone far enough with the creation of new services that justify the total extinction of this institution

(Table 2) Radiocarbon dates from lakes on Fildes Peninsula, King George Island

Precise relative sea level (RSL) data are important for inferring regional ice sheet histories, as well as helping to validate numerical models of ice sheet evolution and glacial isostatic adjustment. Here we develop a new RSL curve for Fildes Peninsula, South Shetland Islands (SSIs), a sub-Antarctic archipelago peripheral to the northern Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet, by integrating sedimentary evidence from isolation basins with geomorphological evidence from raised beaches. This combined approach yields not only a Holocene RSL curve, but also the spatial pattern of how RSL change varied across the archipelago. The curve shows a mid-Holocene RSL highstand on Fildes Peninsula at 15.5 m above mean sea level between 8000 and 7000 cal a BP. Subsequently RSL gradually fell as a consequence of isostatic uplift in response to regional deglaciation. We propose that isostatic uplift occurred at a non-steady rate, with a temporary pause in ice retreat ca. 7200 cal a BP, leading to a short-lived RSL rise of ~1 m and forming a second peak to the mid-Holocene highstand. Two independent approaches were taken to constrain the long-term tectonic uplift rate of the SSIs at 0.22-0.48 m/ka, placing the tectonic contribution to the reconstructed RSL highstand between 1.4 and 2.9 m. Finally, we make comparisons to predictions from three global sea level models.

Immunotherapy for the treatment of poor prognosis cancers

Cancer is amongst the leading causes of death worldwide and the number one cause in the developed world. Every year there are close to 10 million cancer related deaths and this corresponds to hundreds of millions of euro in health care costs and lost productivity, placing a substantial drain on the economy. The efficacy of traditional treatment modalities for cancer therapy, such as surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy has plateaued, and while they are undoubtedly effective at prolonging patient lifespan, there is a high rate of adverse side effects and fatal reoccurrence. Currently, there is a huge amount of interest in the areas of cancer immunosurveillance and cancer immuno-editing, which explain some of the complex interactions between the host immune system and cancer. If left unchecked, cancerous malignancies have the ability to generate an immunosuppressive microenvironment, effectively shielding themselves from elimination and promoting tumour growth and progression. To overcome this, the potential of the immune system must be harnessed and the work undertaken in this thesis sought to contribute to this goal. Focus was placed on using novel therapies, combining tumour ablation with immune-modulating antibodies to maximise tumour elimination in an immune dependent manner, to overcome immunosuppression and promote immune activation. Chapter 2 focuses on the use of ECT as a method of tumour ablation and its effects on the immune system. ECT proved to be effective at inhibiting the tumour growth both in vitro and in vivo, and conferred significant survival advantages in both small and large animal models. More importantly, ECT proved to cause tumour death in an immune dependent manner, displaying the hallmarks of Immunogenic Cell Death, increases in immune cell infiltration and generating tumour-specific immune responses. Chapter 3 focuses on combining ECT with immune checkpoint blockade inhibitors; anti- CTLA-4 and anti-PD-1. Both combinations proved to be effective at inhibiting both primary and distal tumour growth, indicating the generation of tumour specific immune responses and prolonged animal survival. In addition, the treatments caused increases in the levels of certain intra-tumoural immune cell subsets and modulated the cytokine profile of treated animals in a way that was favourable overall. Chapter 4 focuses on the combining ECT with an anti-iCOS agonist antibody, capable of causing immune co-stimulation. This novel combinational therapy proved to be the most effective by far, with a high cure rate achieved across a number of different in vivo tumour models. Total regression was seen in both primary and distal tumours, as well as spontaneous metastases, with the tumour specific immune response generated conferring total protection to animals on tumour rechallenge. Overall the data presented here adds further insight into the area of cancer immunotherapy with some of the novel combinational therapies demonstrating substantial clinic potential.

Prevalence of asthma among school children in Gaborone, Botswana.

Background: Asthma prevalence is high (>10%) in developed countries and although data is still missing for most of Africa, rates are increasing in developing regions as they become more westernized. We investigated the prevalence of asthma in school children in Gaborone, Botswana. Methods: This was a cross sectional descriptive study. ISAAC methodology was used. A representative proportionate size random sample of two age groups of children (13-14 year olds and 6-7 year olds) was consecutively enrolled from 10 schools. The schools were selected using a table of random numbers. A minimum sample size of 924 individuals (462 from each group) was adequate to achieve a precision of 3 % around our estimated prevalence of asthma of 10% with 95% confidence assuming a non-response rate of 20%. Data was collected using the validated International study of Asthma and Allergies in children (ISAAC) questionnaire. In accordance with the ISAAC criteria, Asthma was defined as wheezing in the previous 12 months. Data was captured in microsoft excel and analysed using SPSS version 23. Results: The prevalence of asthma (wheezing in the previous 12 months) was 16.5% (194/1175). Among the 6-7 year olds, the prevalence of asthma (wheezing in the previous 12 months) was 15.9%, while among the 13-14 years olds it was 16.8 %. The prevalence school type was 22.3 % in private schools versus 14.5 % in public schools. More severe asthma was associated with older children, 13 -14 years. The older children reported more limited speech due to wheezing (OR= 2.0, 95% CI =1.034, 3.9, p-value=0.043), ever had asthma (OR= 1.5, 95% CI=1.031, 2.3, p-value=0.034) and wheezing during exercise (OR=3.4, 95% CI= 2.5, 4.9, p-value= <0.001) compared to the younger children 6-7 years. Children from private schools had more wheezing symptoms. They were more likely to have ever wheezed (OR=2.2, .95% CI=1.7,2.9, p-value < 0.0001), wheezed in the previous twelve months (have asthma) (OR=1.7,95%CI=1.2,2.4, p-value = 0.001), ever had asthma (OR=2.4, 95% CI=1.7,3.5, pvalue< 0.0001), and wheezed during exercise (OR=1.8, 95% CI=1.4,2.4, p-value < 0.0001). Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma amongst school children in Gaborone, Botswana is high with older children experiencing more severe symptoms of asthma.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

Non- parametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the estimation and testing of conditional duration models by looking at the density and baseline hazard rate functions. More precisely, we foeus on the distance between the parametric density (or hazard rate) function implied by the duration process and its non-parametric estimate. Asymptotic justification is derived using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, whereas finite sample properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures by carrying out an empirical assessment of whether autoregressive conditional duration models are appropriate to oIs for modelling price durations of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange.