Multivariate modelling of variability in sheet metal forming

The inherent variability in incoming material and process conditions in sheet metal forming makes quality control and the maintenance of consistency extremely difficult. A single FEM simulation is successful at predicting the formability for a given system, however lacks the ability to capture the variability in an actual production process due to the numerical deterministic nature. This paper investigates a probabilistic analytical model where the variation of five input parameters and their relationship to the sensitivity of springback in a stamping process is examined. A range of sheet tensions are investigated, simulating different operating windows in an attempt to highlight robust regions where the distribution of springback is small. A series of FEM simulations were also performed, to compare with the findings from the analytical model using AutoForm Sigma v4.04 and to validate the analytical model assumptions.

Results show that an increase in sheet tension not only decreases springback, but more importantly reduces the sensitivity of the process to variation. A relative sensitivity analysis has been performed where the most influential parameters and the changes in sensitivity at various sheet tensions have been investigated. Variation in the material parameters, yield stress and n-value were the most influential causes of springback variation, when compared to process input parameters such as friction, which had a small effect. The probabilistic model presented allows manufacturers to develop a more comprehensive assessment of the success of their forming processes by capturing the effects of inherent variation.

Frequency, severity and effect of life of physical symptoms experienced during pregnancy

This study aimed to: 1) describe the number, frequency, severity of discomfort and effect of symptoms on life of 29 physical symptoms women experienced at 15 to 25 weeks of gestation; 2) explore whether experiencing this group of physical symptoms more frequently and intensely was associated with a higher score of depressive symptoms and lower self-esteem; (3) examine whether discomfort and effect ratings aided prediction of well being over and above symptom frequency; and (4) investigate which individual physical symptoms contributed most to predicting depressive symptoms and self-esteem. Pregnant women (n = 215) completed the Beck Depression Inventory, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, and a physical symptoms questionnaire. Frequency, discomfort, and the effect of physical symptoms all consistently correlated with higher scores for depressive symptoms, but less consistently with lower self-esteem. Discomfort and the effect of symptoms predicted variance in depressive symptoms after accounting for symptom frequency. Higher frequency, more discomfort, and the effect of fatigue and effect of flatulence were related to depressive symptoms. Relationships between pregnancy-related physical symptoms, depressive symptoms, and low self-esteem suggest that when women report any of these constellation of factors, further screening is indicated. A comprehensive assessment of physical symptoms includes frequency, discomfort, and effect on life.

Prediction intervals to account for uncertainties in travel time prediction

The accurate prediction of travel times is desirable but frequently prone to error. This is mainly attributable to both the underlying traffic processes and the data that are used to infer travel time. A more meaningful and pragmatic approach is to view travel time prediction as a probabilistic inference and to construct prediction intervals (PIs), which cover the range of probable travel times travelers may encounter. This paper introduces the delta and Bayesian techniques for the construction of PIs. Quantitative measures are developed and applied for a comprehensive assessment of the constructed PIs. These measures simultaneously address two important aspects of PIs: 1) coverage probability and 2) length. The Bayesian and delta methods are used to construct PIs for the neural network (NN) point forecasts of bus and freeway travel time data sets. The obtained results indicate that the delta technique outperforms the Bayesian technique in terms of narrowness of PIs with satisfactory coverage probability. In contrast, PIs constructed using the Bayesian technique are more robust against the NN structure and exhibit excellent coverage probability.

The burden of disease and injury in Australia

This report provides an overview of results from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study undertaken by the AIHW during 1998 and 1999. The Study uses the methods developed for the Global Burden of Disease Study, adapted to the Australian context and drawing extensively on Australian sources of population health data. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the amount of ill health and disability, the ‘burden of disease’ in Australia in 1996.

Mortality, disability, impairment, illness and injury arising from 176 diseases, injuries and risk factors are measured using a common metric, the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY. One DALY is a lost year of ‘healthy’ life and is calculated as a combination of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and equivalent ‘healthy’ years of life lost due to disability (YLD). This report provides estimates of the contribution of fatal and non-fatal health outcomes to the total burden of disease and injury measured in DALYs in Australia in 1996.

Characterization of nine polymorphic microsatellite loci in the dyeing poison frog Dendrobates tinctorius (Dendrobatidae), and their cross-species utility in two other dendrobatoid species

While field and laboratory based studies have provided significant insights into the parental care and courtship behaviour of dendrobatoid frogs, a comprehensive assessment of their genetic mating systems and population genetic parameters has been precluded because ofthe lack of highly variable DNA markers. Here we document the development of nine novel polymorphic microsatellite markers for the dyeing poison frog Dendrobates tinct or ius (Dendrobatidae ). We found between three and 16 alleles per locus in 60 individuals (30 males, 30 females) from the field site Saut Parare, French Guiana, with an average observed heterozygosity of 0. 75. None of the loci deviated significantly from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or showed linkage disequilibrium. We also report successful cross-species amplification of the nine markers in two other dendrobatoid species (Allobates femora/is and Oophaga pumilio). These markers have the potential to aid in determining the genetic structure of local populations, identifying small-scale phylogenies such as parent-offspring relationships and will allow for cross-species comparisons within dendrobatoid species. Therefore, these markers can be applied to a wide range of scientific fields, such as conservation, behavioural ecology and evolutionary biology.

Reliability and validity of the transport and physical activity questionnaire (TPAQ) for assessing physical activity behaviour

No current validated survey instrument allows a comprehensive assessment of both physical activity and travel behaviours for use in interdisciplinary research on walking and cycling. This study reports on the test-retest reliability and validity of physical activity measures in the transport and physical activity questionnaire (TPAQ).

A molecular and morphological investigation of species boundaries and phylogenetic relationships in Australian free-tailed bats Mormopterus (Chiroptera:Molossidae)

The taxonomic uncertainty surrounding several prominent genera of Australian microbat has been a long-standing impediment to research and conservation efforts on these groups. The free-tail bat genus Mormopterus is perhaps the most significant example, with a long history of acknowledged species-level confusion. This study uses a combined molecular and morphological approach to conduct a comprehensive assessment of species and subgeneric boundaries, between-species phylogenetic affinities and within-species phylogeographic structure in Australian members of Mormopterus. Phylogenetic analyses based on 759 base pairs of the NADH Dehydrogenase subunit 2 mitochondrial gene were concordant with species boundaries delineated using an expanded allozyme dataset and by phallic morphology, and also revealed strong phylogeographic structure within two species. The levels of divergence evident in the molecular and morphological analyses led us to recognise three subgenera within Australia: Micronomus, Setirostris subgen. nov. and Ozimops subgen. nov. Within Ozimops we recognise seven Australian species, three of which are new, and none are conspecific with Indo-Papuan species. The family Molossidae now comprises eleven species across three subgenera in Australia, making it the continent's second most speciose family of bats. © CSIRO 2014.

Impact of cannabis use on long-term remission in bipolar I and schizoaffective disorder

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of regular cannabis use on long-term remission of mood symptoms in bipolar spectrum disorders. METHODS: The 24-month prospective observational study included patients (n=239) with bipolar I disorder and schizoaffective disorder, bipolar type. Participants were classified as regular cannabis users (three times or more per week) or non-users. The primary outcome measure was the achievement of remission on the evaluations during the 24 months. RESULTS: Of the 234 participants for whom data was available, 25 (10.7%) were regular cannabis users, and the group comprised significantly more males than females. In the total population, cannabis use was significantly associated with decreased likelihood of remission during the 24-month follow-up period. Subgroup analyses showed that cannabis use was significantly associated with lower remission rates on the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale in females (n=139) and patients prescribed mood stabilizers alone (n=151), whereas in males (n=95) and patients prescribed olanzapine and/or a mood stabilizer (n=83), cannabis use was significantly associated with lower remission rates on the Young Mania Rating Scale. Remission rates were lowest in the concurrent cannabis and tobacco smoking group (n=22) followed by the tobacco smoking only group (n=97), and the non-smoker group (n=116). The post-hoc analysis revealed that all remission rates were significantly lower in the concurrent cannabis and the tobacco smoking group compared to the non-smoker group. CONCLUSION: Cannabis use negatively affects the long-term clinical outcome in patients with bipolar spectrum disorders. A comprehensive assessment and integrated management of cannabis use are required to achieve better treatment outcomes for bipolar spectrum disorders.

Does growth attract FDI?

FDI is seen widely as a vital source of investment, technology transfer, and growth. The factors that attract FDI have been a longstanding source of debate. The authors present a comprehensive assessment of the accumulated evidence on one factor, the success of economic growth in attracting FDI. Meta-regression analysis is applied to 946 estimates from 140 empirical studies. The results confirm that, on average, economic growth is an important determinant of FDI. Overall, there is a positive correlation between growth and FDI and this is much larger among single country case studies than with cross-country analysis.

Care arrangements for people with dementia in developing countries

Background: Rapid demographic ageing will soon lead to large increases in the numbers of persons with dementia in developing countries. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of care arrangements for people with dementia in those regions. Methods: A descriptive and comparative study of dementia care; caregiver characteristics, the nature of care provided, and the practical, psychological (Zarit Burden Interview, General Health Questionnaire) and economic impact upon the caregiver in 24 centres in India, China and South East Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa. Results: We interviewed 706 persons with dementia, and their caregivers. Most caregivers were women, living with the person with dementia in extended family households. One-quarter to one-half of households included a child. Larger households were associated with lower caregiver strain, where the caregiver was co-resident. However, despite the traditional apparatus of family care, levels of caregiver strain were at least as high as in the developed world. Many had cutback on work to care and faced the additional expense of paid carers and health services. Families from the poorest countries were particularly likely to have used expensive private medical services, and to be spending more than 10% of the per capita GNP on health care. Conclusions: Older people in developing countries are indivisible from their younger family members. The high levels of family strain identified in this study feed into the cycle of disadvantage and should thus be a concern for policymakers in the developing world. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Avaliação de sintomas neuropsiquiátricos na demência: Para melhorar a precisão

The issue of this article concerned the discussion about tools frequently used tools for assessing neuropsychiatric symptoms of patients with dementia, particularly Alzheimer's disease. The aims were to discuss the main tools for evaluating behavioral disturbances, and particularly the accuracy of the Neuropsychiatric Inventory - Clinician Rating Scale (NPI-C). The clinical approach to and diagnosis of neuropsychiatric syndromes in dementia require suitable accuracy. Advances in the recognition and early accurate diagnosis of psychopathological symptoms help guide appropriate pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions. In addition, recommended standardized and validated measurements contribute to both scientific research and clinical practice. Emotional distress, caregiver burden, and cognitive impairment often experienced by elderly caregivers, may affect the quality of caregiver reports. The clinician rating approach helps attenuate these misinterpretations. In this scenario, the NPI-C is a promising and versatile tool for assessing neuropsychiatric syndromes in dementia, offering good accuracy and high reliability, mainly based on the diagnostic impression of the clinician. This tool can provide both strategies: a comprehensive assessment of neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia or the investigation of specific psychopathological syndromes such as agitation, depression, anxiety, apathy, sleep disorders, and aberrant motor disorders, among others.

Machine vision to identify broiler breeder behavior

Animal behavioral parameters can be used to assess welfare status in commercial broiler breeders. Behavioral parameters can be monitored with a variety of sensing devices, for instance, the use of video cameras allows comprehensive assessment of animal behavioral expressions. Nevertheless, the development of efficient methods and algorithms to continuously identify and differentiate animal behavior patterns is needed. The objective this study was to provide a methodology to identify hen white broiler breeder behavior using combined techniques of image processing and computer vision. These techniques were applied to differentiate body shapes from a sequence of frames as the birds expressed their behaviors. The method was comprised of four stages: (1) identification of body positions and their relationship with typical behaviors. For this stage, the number of frames required to identify each behavior was determined; (2) collection of image samples, with the isolation of the birds that expressed a behavior of interest; (3) image processing and analysis using a filter developed to separate white birds from the dark background; and finally (4) construction and validation of a behavioral classification tree, using the software tool Weka (model 148). The constructed tree was structured in 8 levels and 27 leaves, and it was validated using two modes: the set training mode with an overall rate of success of 96.7%, and the cross validation mode with an overall rate of success of 70.3%. The results presented here confirmed the feasibility of the method developed to identify white broiler breeder behavior for a particular group of study. Nevertheless, more improvements in the method can be made in order to increase the validation overall rate of success. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro conservation of Dendrobium germplasm

Dendrobium is a large genus in the family Orchidaceae that exhibits vast diversity in floral characteristics, which is of considerable importance to orchid breeders, biotechnologists and collectors. Native species have high value as a result of their medicinal properties, while their hybrids are important as ornamental commodities, either as cut flowers or potted plants and are thus veritable industrial crops. Thus, preservation of Dendrobium germplasm is valuable for species conservation, breeding programs and the floriculture industry. Cryopreservation represents the only safe, efficient and cost-effective long-term storage option to facilitate the conservation of genetic resources of plant species. This review highlights 16 years of literature related to the preservation of Dendrobium germplasm and comprises the most comprehensive assessment of thorough studies performed to date, which shows reliable and reproducible results. Air-drying, encapsulation-dehydration, encapsulation-vitrification, vitrification and droplet-vitrification are the current cryopreservation methodologies that have been used to cryopreserve Dendrobium germplasm. Mature seeds, pollen, protoplasts, shoot primordia, protocorms and somatic embryos or protocorm-like bodies (PLBs) have been cryopreserved with different levels of success. Encapsulation-vitrification and encapsulation-dehydration are the most used protocol, while PLBs represent the main explant explored.

Presupuestos participativos (PPs) e instituciones participativas (IPs) en Brasil: criterios (y marco) para la evaluación de experiencias y casos

This paper identifies relevant criteria for evaluation of participatory budgeting and participatory institutions that are currently adopted by governments of both Brazil and elsewhere, highlighting the importance of a comprehensive assessment that integrates all these criteria. Finally, it is recommended to pay special attention to assessing the desirability of these institutions, which are not always positively for theories on democracy

Gestión integral en la Playa de Montaña Arena: Análisis y Diagnóstico preliminar

Máster Universitario en Gestión Costera