Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Multiple Dipole Source Models for Scalp-Recorded Event-Related Potentials: Example from Complex Visual Processing in the Human Brain

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P10, 92C20

Chebanov law and Vakar formula in mathematical models of complex systems

Ecological models written in a mathematical language L(M) or model language, with a given style or methodology can be considered as a text. It is possible to apply statistical linguistic laws and the experimental results demonstrate that the behaviour of a mathematical model is the same of any literary text of any natural language. A text has the following characteristics: (a) the variables, its transformed functions and parameters are the lexic units or LUN of ecological models; (b) the syllables are constituted by a LUN, or a chain of them, separated by operating or ordering LUNs; (c) the flow equations are words; and (d) the distribution of words (LUM and CLUN) according to their lengths is based on a Poisson distribution, the Chebanov's law. It is founded on Vakar's formula, that is calculated likewise the linguistic entropy for L(M). We will apply these ideas over practical examples using MARIOLA model. In this paper it will be studied the problem of the lengths of the simple lexic units composed lexic units and words of text models, expressing these lengths in number of the primitive symbols, and syllables. The use of these linguistic laws renders it possible to indicate the degree of information given by an ecological model.

Assessing the risk of the evolution of resistance to pesticides using spatially complex simulation models.

2008

Data surveillance for infectious diseases: models, complex networks and machine learning

In this thesis, we investigate the role of applied physics in epidemiological surveillance through the application of mathematical models, network science and machine learning. The spread of a communicable disease depends on many biological, social, and health factors. The large masses of data available make it possible, on the one hand, to monitor the evolution and spread of pathogenic organisms; on the other hand, to study the behavior of people, their opinions and habits. Presented here are three lines of research in which an attempt was made to solve real epidemiological problems through data analysis and the use of statistical and mathematical models. In Chapter 1, we applied language-inspired Deep Learning models to transform influenza protein sequences into vectors encoding their information content. We then attempted to reconstruct the antigenic properties of different viral strains using regression models and to identify the mutations responsible for vaccine escape. In Chapter 2, we constructed a compartmental model to describe the spread of a bacterium within a hospital ward. The model was informed and validated on time series of clinical measurements, and a sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different control measures. Finally (Chapter 3) we reconstructed the network of retweets among COVID-19 themed Twitter users in the early months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. By means of community detection algorithms and centrality measures, we characterized users’ attention shifts in the network, showing that scientific communities, initially the most retweeted, lost influence over time to national political communities. In the Conclusion, we highlighted the importance of the work done in light of the main contemporary challenges for epidemiological surveillance. In particular, we present reflections on the importance of nowcasting and forecasting, the relationship between data and scientific research, and the need to unite the different scales of epidemiological surveillance.

A New Platinum Complex With Tryptophan: Synthesis, Structural Characterization, Dft Studies And Biological Assays In Vitro Over Human Tumorigenic Cells.

A new platinum(II) complex with the amino acid L-tryptophan (trp), named Pt-trp, was synthesized and characterized. Elemental, thermogravimetric and ESI-QTOF mass spectrometric analyses led to the composition [Pt(C11H11N2O2)2]⋅6H2O. Infrared spectroscopic data indicate the coordination of trp to Pt(II) through the oxygen of the carboxylate group and also through the nitrogen atom of the amino group. The (13)C CP/MAS NMR spectroscopic data confirm coordination through the oxygen atom of the carboxylate group, while the (15)N CP/MAS NMR data confirm coordination of the nitrogen of the NH2 group to the metal. Density functional theory (DFT) studies were applied to evaluate the cis and trans coordination modes of trp to platinum(II). The trans isomer was shown to be energetically more stable than the cis one. The Pt-trp complex was evaluated as a cytotoxic agent against SK-Mel 103 (human melanoma) and Panc-1 (human pancreatic carcinoma) cell lines. The complex was shown to be cytotoxic over the considered cells.

Complex networks: the key to systems biology

Though introduced recently, complex networks research has grown steadily because of its potential to represent, characterize and model a wide range of intricate natural systems and phenomena. Because of the intrinsic complexity and systemic organization of life, complex networks provide a specially promising framework for systems biology investigation. The current article is an up-to-date review of the major developments related to the application of complex networks in biology, with special attention focused on the more recent literature. The main concepts and models of complex networks are presented and illustrated in an accessible fashion. Three main types of networks are covered: transcriptional regulatory networks, protein-protein interaction networks and metabolic networks. The key role of complex networks for systems biology is extensively illustrated by several of the papers reviewed.

Reactivity, photolability, and computational studies of the ruthenium nitrosyl complex with a substituted cyclam fac-[Ru(NO)Cl(2)(kappa(3)N(4),N(8),N(11)(1-carboxypropyl)cyclam)]Cl center dot H(2)O

Chemical reactivity, photolability, and computational studies of the ruthenium nitrosyl complex with a substituted cyclam, fac-[Ru(NO)Cl(2)(kappa(3)N(4),N(8),N(11)(1-carboxypropyl)cyclam)]Cl center dot H(2)O ((1-carboxypropyl) cyclam = 3-(1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecan-1-yl) propionic acid)), (I) are described. Chloride ligands do not undergo aquation reactions (at 25 degrees C, pH 3). The rate of nitric oxide (NO) dissociation (k(obs-NO)) upon reduction of I is 2.8 s(-1) at 25 +/- 1 degrees C (in 0.5 mol L(-1) HCl), which is close to the highest value found for related complexes. The uncoordinated carboxyl of I has a pK(a) of similar to 3.3, which is close to that of the carboxyl of the non coordinated (1-carboxypropyl) cyclam (pK(a) = 3.4). Two additional pK(a) values were found for I at similar to 8.0 and similar to 11.5. Upon electrochemical reduction or under irradiation with light (lambda(irr) = 350 or 520 nm; pH 7.4), I releases NO in aqueous solution. The cyclam ring N bound to the carboxypropyl group is not coordinated, resulting in a fac configuration that affects the properties and chemical reactivities of I, especially as NO donor, compared with analogous trans complexes. Among the computational models tested, the B3LYP/ECP28MDF, cc-pVDZ resulted in smaller errors for the geometry of I. The computational data helped clarify the experimental acid-base equilibria and indicated the most favourable site for the second deprotonation, which follows that of the carboxyl group. Furthermore, it showed that by changing the pH it is possible to modulate the electron density of I with deprotonation. The calculated NO bond length and the Ru/NO charge ratio indicated that the predominant canonical structure is [Ru(III)NO], but the Ru-NO bond angles and bond index (b.i.) values were less clear; the angles suggested that [Ru(II)NO(+)] could contribute to the electronic structure of I and b.i. values indicated a contribution from [Ru(IV)NO(-)]. Considering that some experimental data are consistent with a [Ru(II)NO(+)] description, while others are in agreement with [Ru(III)NO], the best description for I would be a linear combination of the three canonical forms, with a higher weight for [Ru(II)NO(+)] and [Ru(III)NO].

Characterization of subgraph relationships and distribution in complex networks

A network can be analyzed at different topological scales, ranging from single nodes to motifs, communities, up to the complete structure. We propose a novel approach which extends from single nodes to the whole network level by considering non-overlapping subgraphs (i.e. connected components) and their interrelationships and distribution through the network. Though such subgraphs can be completely general, our methodology focuses on the cases in which the nodes of these subgraphs share some special feature, such as being critical for the proper operation of the network. The methodology of subgraph characterization involves two main aspects: (i) the generation of histograms of subgraph sizes and distances between subgraphs and (ii) a merging algorithm, developed to assess the relevance of nodes outside subgraphs by progressively merging subgraphs until the whole network is covered. The latter procedure complements the histograms by taking into account the nodes lying between subgraphs, as well as the relevance of these nodes to the overall subgraph interconnectivity. Experiments were carried out using four types of network models and five instances of real-world networks, in order to illustrate how subgraph characterization can help complementing complex network-based studies.

Generalized connectivity between any two nodes in a complex network

This article focuses on the identification of the number of paths with different lengths between pairs of nodes in complex networks and how these paths can be used for characterization of topological properties of theoretical and real-world complex networks. This analysis revealed that the number of paths can provide a better discrimination of network models than traditional network measurements. In addition, the analysis of real-world networks suggests that the long-range connectivity tends to be limited in these networks and may be strongly related to network growth and organization.

Anisotropic singularities in modified gravity models

We show that the common singularities present in generic modified gravity models governed by actions of the type S = integral d(4)x root-gf(R, phi, X). with X = -1/2 g(ab)partial derivative(a)phi partial derivative(b)phi, are essentially the same anisotropic instabilities associated to the hypersurface F(phi) = 0 in the case of a nonminimal coupling of the type F(phi)R, enlightening the physical origin of such singularities that typically arise in rather complex and cumbersome inhomogeneous perturbation analyses. We show, moreover, that such anisotropic instabilities typically give rise to dynamically unavoidable singularities, precluding completely the possibility of having physically viable models for which the hypersurface partial derivative f/partial derivative R = 0 is attained. Some examples are explicitly discussed.

Gene Expression Complex Networks: Synthesis, Identification, and Analysis

Thanks to recent advances in molecular biology, allied to an ever increasing amount of experimental data, the functional state of thousands of genes can now be extracted simultaneously by using methods such as cDNA microarrays and RNA-Seq. Particularly important related investigations are the modeling and identification of gene regulatory networks from expression data sets. Such a knowledge is fundamental for many applications, such as disease treatment, therapeutic intervention strategies and drugs design, as well as for planning high-throughput new experiments. Methods have been developed for gene networks modeling and identification from expression profiles. However, an important open problem regards how to validate such approaches and its results. This work presents an objective approach for validation of gene network modeling and identification which comprises the following three main aspects: (1) Artificial Gene Networks (AGNs) model generation through theoretical models of complex networks, which is used to simulate temporal expression data; (2) a computational method for gene network identification from the simulated data, which is founded on a feature selection approach where a target gene is fixed and the expression profile is observed for all other genes in order to identify a relevant subset of predictors; and (3) validation of the identified AGN-based network through comparison with the original network. The proposed framework allows several types of AGNs to be generated and used in order to simulate temporal expression data. The results of the network identification method can then be compared to the original network in order to estimate its properties and accuracy. Some of the most important theoretical models of complex networks have been assessed: the uniformly-random Erdos-Renyi (ER), the small-world Watts-Strogatz (WS), the scale-free Barabasi-Albert (BA), and geographical networks (GG). The experimental results indicate that the inference method was sensitive to average degree k variation, decreasing its network recovery rate with the increase of k. The signal size was important for the inference method to get better accuracy in the network identification rate, presenting very good results with small expression profiles. However, the adopted inference method was not sensible to recognize distinct structures of interaction among genes, presenting a similar behavior when applied to different network topologies. In summary, the proposed framework, though simple, was adequate for the validation of the inferred networks by identifying some properties of the evaluated method, which can be extended to other inference methods.