Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3 data

We develop a method to derive aerosol properties over land surfaces using combined spectral and angular information, such as available from ESA Sentinel-3 mission, to be launched in 2015. A method of estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3. The method aims to improve the estimation of AOD, and to explore the estimation of fine mode fraction (FMF) and single scattering albedo (SSA) over land surfaces by inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model. The surface model includes a general physical model of angular and spectral surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values to the physical model. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground-based sun photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.

Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model

O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

A COMPARATIVE-STUDY OF 4 DIFFERENT STAINING METHODS FOR ESTIMATION OF LIVE YEAST FORM CELLS OF PARACOCCIDIOIDES-BRASILIENSIS

A comparative study of four different staining methods for estimation of live yeast form cells of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis was carried out. The staining methods used were fluorescent staining, vital dye exclusion tests with erythrosin B and by Janus green and lactophenol cotton blue staining. Colony forming units (cfu) of the yeast form of eight P. brasiliensis isolates on brain heart infusion agar (BHIA) supplemented with 4% horse serum plus 5% P. brasiliensis cell extract (BHIA + HS + EXT) were examined for reliability of staining in determining the number of live fungal units in eight different isolates. Cfu on BHIA + HS + EXT plates showed an excellent plating efficiency over 96% in all isolates tested. The percentage of the live cells indicated by fluorescent staining (FL) or vital dye exclusion test with erythrosin B (EB) or Janus green (JG-1) was lower than that of cfu. By contrast, the percentage due to modified dye exclusion test with Janus green (JG-2) and that due to lactophenol cotton blue staining (LPCB) showed a close correration to that of cfu. Our results indicate that the modified dye exclusion test with Janus green and lactophenol cotton blue staining are useful for estimating cell viability of yeast form cells of P. brasiliensis.

Method for the evaluation of insecticidal activity over time in Atta sexdens rubropilosa workers (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

The active ingredients used in the formulation of toxic baits for leaf-cutting ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) should possess a delayed action defined as an insecticidal activity whereby worker mortality is ≤15% at 24 hours and ≥90% at 21 days. Serious shortcomings have occurred in the search for new active ingredients, such as the initial selection of fenoxycarb, copper oxychloride and diflubenzuron, compounds considered very promising but whose inefficiency was verified only later, indicating methodological problems. In view of this situation, we developed a classification method for insecticidal activity over time using workers of the leaf-cutting ant Atta sexdens rubropilosa Forel. The insecticides used were fipronil, sulfluramid GX071HB and sulfluramid GX439, vehicled in an attractive pasty formulation prepared based on citrus pulp. The results obtained were consistent from a toxicological viewpoint and agreed with the literature in terms of the control of colonies. Sulfluramids were found to possess a delayed action at a broad range of concentrations, in agreement with the fact that these substances are highly effective in the control of all leaf-cutting ant species. The smaller range of concentrations of fipronil with delayed action is probably related to its lower efficacy for species more difficult to control such as Atta capiguara (Forti et al. 2003). We discuss the importance of relating behavioral particularities to the specific feeding habits of leaf-cutting ants, with methodological adequacy of the assessment of insecticides aimed at toxic baits.

Reduction of infant mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean: uneven progress requiring a variety of responses

Infant mortality has unquestionably declined throughout Latin America over the last decade, even under conditions of low and unstable economic growth and a meagre overall reduction of poverty in the region. The declines in infant mortality vary from one country to another. The persistence of high infant mortality rates is related to low income, teenage pregnancy and lack of access to basic services, as well as to the lack of appropriate health care infrastructure. At the same time, both the rural population as a whole, and the indigenous and Afro-descendent population in particular, has fallen markedly behind, with overall infant mortality rates much higher than among the rest of the population. Moreover, the cause and incidence of death in this age group have been changing according with the changes in neonatal and post-neonatal deaths. Our editorial line-up has created space for opinions from adolescents and youth, as well as from policy experts on the problem, its causes, and approaches to dealing with infant mortality. We also offer succinct information on a broad range of programmes—utilizing various interventions—in different countries of the region regarding maternal and infant care, in an attempt to bring about a reduction in mortality.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Soil carbon balance in a tropical grassland: Estimation of soil respiration and its partitioning using a semi-empirical model

In savannah and tropical grasslands, which account for 60% of grasslands worldwide, a large share of ecosystem carbon is located below ground due to high root:shoot ratios. Temporal variations in soil CO2 efflux (R-S) were investigated in a grassland of coastal Congo over two years. The objectives were (1) to identify the main factors controlling seasonal variations in R-S and (2) to develop a semi-empirical model describing R-S and including a heterotrophic component (R-H) and an autotrophic component (R-A). Plant above-ground activity was found to exert strong control over soil respiration since 71% of seasonal R-S variability was explained by the quantity of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed (APAR) by the grass canopy. We tested an additive model including a parameter enabling R-S partitioning into R-A and R-H. Assumptions underlying this model were that R-A mainly depended on the amount of photosynthates allocated below ground and that microbial and root activity was mostly controlled by soil temperature and soil moisture. The model provided a reasonably good prediction of seasonal variations in R-S (R-2 = 0.85) which varied between 5.4 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) in the wet season and 0.9 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) at the end of the dry season. The model was subsequently used to obtain annual estimates of R-S, R-A and R-H. In accordance with results reported for other tropical grasslands, we estimated that R-H accounted for 44% of R-S, which represented a flux similar to the amount of carbon brought annually to the soil from below-ground litter production. Overall, this study opens up prospects for simulating the carbon budget of tropical grasslands on a large scale using remotely sensed data. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliable estimation of dense optical flow fields with large displacements

[EN] In this paper we show that a classic optical flow technique by Nagel and Enkelmann can be regarded as an early anisotropic diffusion method with a diffusion tensor. We introduce three improvements into the model formulation that avoid inconsistencies caused by centering the brightness term and the smoothness term in different images use a linear scale-space focusing strategy from coarse to fine scales for avoiding convergence to physically irrelevant local minima, and create an energy functional that is invariant under linear brightness changes.  Applying a gradient descent method to the resulting energy functional leads to a system of diffusion-reaction equations. We prove that this system has a unique solution under realistic assumptions on the initial data, and we present an efficient linear implicit numerical scheme in detail. Our method creates flow fields with 100% density over the entire image domain, it is robust under a large range of parameter variations, and it can recover displacement fields that are far beyond the typical one-pixel limits which are characteristic for many differential methods for determining optical flow. We show that it performs better than the classic optical flow methods with 100%  density that are evaluated by Barron et al. (1994). Our software is available from the Internet.

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress score does not predict immediate outcome after pancreatic surgery

The Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress score was designed to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in general surgery. Our study aims to evaluate its use and accuracy in estimating postoperative outcome after elective pancreatic surgery.

The Estimation of the Ecological Condition of the City Environment by Methods of Phytoindication (as Applied to the Vasileostrovsky District of St. Petersburg)

The project aimed to use results of contamination of city vegetation with heavy metals and sulphur compounds as the basis for analysing the integral response of trees and shrubs to contamination, through a complex method of phytoindication. The results were used to draw up recommendations on pollution reduction in the city and to develop the method of phytoindication as a means of monitoring environmental pollution in St. Petersburg and other large cities. Field investigations were carried out in August 1996, and 66 descriptions of green areas were made in order to estimate the functional state of plants in the Vasileostrovsky district. Investigations of the spectrum reflecting properties of plants showed considerable variation of albedo meanings of leaves under the influence of various internal and external factors. The results indicated that lime trees most closely reflect the condition of the environment. Practically all the green areas studied were in poor condition, the only exceptions being areas of ash trees, which are more resistant to environmental pollution, and one lime-tree alley in a comparatively unpolluted street. The study identified those types of trees which are more or less resistant to complex environmental pollution and Ms. Terekhina recommends that the species in the present green areas be changed to include a higher number of the more resistant species. The turbidimetric analysis of tree barks for sulphates gave an indication of the level and spatial distribution of each pollutant, and the results also confirmed other findings that electric conductivity is a significant feature in determining the extent of sulphate pollution. In testing for various metals, the lime tree showed the highest contents for all elements except magnesium, copper, zinc, cadmium and strontium, again confirming the species' vulnerability to pollution. Medium rates of concentration in the city and environs showed that city plants concentrate 3 times as many different elements and 10 times more chromium, copper and lead than do those in the suburbs. The second stage of the study was based on the concept of phytoindication, which presupposes that changes in the relation of chemical elements in regional biological circulation under the influence of technogenesis provide a criterion for predicting displacements in people's health. There are certain basic factors in this concept. The first is that all living beings are related ecologically as well as by their evolutionary origin, and that the lower an organism is on the evolutionary scale, the less adaptational reserve it has. The second is that smaller concentrations of chemical elements are needed for toxicological influence on plants than on people and so the former's reactions to geochemical factors are easier to characterise. Visual indicational features of urban plants are well defined and can form the basis of a complex "environment - public health" analysis. Specific plant reactions reflecting atmospheric pollution and other components of urbogeosystems make it possible to determine indication criteria for predicting possible disturbances in the general state of health of the population. Thirdly the results of phytoindication investigations must be taken together with information about public health in the area. It only proved possibly to analyse general indexes of public health based on statistical data from the late 1980s and early 1990s as the data of later years were greatly influenced by social factors. These data show that the rates of illness in St. Petersburg (especially for children) are higher than in Russia as a whole, for most classes of diseases, indicating that the population there is more sensitive to the ecological state of the urban environment. The Vasileostrovsky district had the second highest sick rate for adullts, while the rate of infant mortality in the first year of life was highest there. Ms. Terekhina recommends further studies to more precisely assess the effectiveness of the methods she tested, but has drawn up a proposed map of environmental hazard for the population, taking into account prevailing wind directions.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

Estimation of scots pine defoliation by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.) using multi-temporal radar data

In 1998-2001 Finland suffered the most severe insect outbreak ever recorded, over 500,000 hectares. The outbreak was caused by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.). The outbreak has continued in the study area, Palokangas, ever since. To find a good method to monitor this type of outbreaks, the purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of multi-temporal ERS-2 and ENVISAT SAR imagery for estimating Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) defoliation. Three methods were tested: unsupervised k-means clustering, supervised linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression. In addition, I assessed if harvested areas could be differentiated from the defoliated forest using the same methods. Two different speckle filters were used to determine the effect of filtering on the SAR imagery and subsequent results. The logistic regression performed best, producing a classification accuracy of 81.6% (kappa 0.62) with two classes (no defoliation, >20% defoliation). LDA accuracy was with two classes at best 77.7% (kappa 0.54) and k-means 72.8 (0.46). In general, the largest speckle filter, 5 x 5 image window, performed best. When additional classes were added the accuracy was usually degraded on a step-by-step basis. The results were good, but because of the restrictions in the study they should be confirmed with independent data, before full conclusions can be made that results are reliable. The restrictions include the small size field data and, thus, the problems with accuracy assessment (no separate testing data) as well as the lack of meteorological data from the imaging dates.

Theoretical estimation of optical absorption and photoluminescence in nanostructured silicon; an approach to improve efficiency in nanostructured solar cells

Renewable energy is growing in demand, and thus the the manufacture of solar cells and photovoltaic arrays has advanced dramatically in recent years. This is proved by the fact that the photovoltaic production has doubled every 2 years, increasing by an average of 48% each year since 2002. Covering the general overview of solar cell working, and its model, this thesis will start with the three generations of photovoltaic solar cell technology, and move to the motivation of dedicating research to nanostructured solar cell. For the current generation solar cells, among several factors, like photon capture, photon reflection, carrier generation by photons, carrier transport and collection, the efficiency also depends on the absorption of photons. The absorption coefficient,α, and its dependence on the wavelength, λ, is of major concern to improve the efficiency. Nano-silicon structures (quantum wells and quantum dots) have a unique advantage compared to bulk and thin film crystalline silicon that multiple direct and indirect band gaps can be realized by appropriate size control of the quantum wells. This enables multiple wavelength photons of the solar spectrum to be absorbed efficiently. There is limited research on the calculation of absorption coefficient in nano structures of silicon. We present a theoretical approach to calculate the absorption coefficient using quantum mechanical calculations on the interaction of photons with the electrons of the valence band. One model is that the oscillator strength of the direct optical transitions is enhanced by the quantumconfinement effect in Si nanocrystallites. These kinds of quantum wells can be realized in practice in porous silicon. The absorption coefficient shows a peak of 64638.2 cm-1 at = 343 nm at photon energy of ξ = 3.49 eV ( = 355.532 nm). I have shown that a large value of absorption coefficient α comparable to that of bulk silicon is possible in silicon QDs because of carrier confinement. Our results have shown that we can enhance the absorption coefficient by an order of 10, and at the same time a nearly constant absorption coefficient curve over the visible spectrum. The validity of plots is verified by the correlation with experimental photoluminescence plots. A very generic comparison for the efficiency of p-i-n junction solar cell is given for a cell incorporating QDs and sans QDs. The design and fabrication technique is discussed in brief. I have shown that by using QDs in the intrinsic region of a cell, we can improve the efficiency by a factor of 1.865 times. Thus for a solar cell of efficiency of 26% for first generation solar cell, we can improve the efficiency to nearly 48.5% on using QDs.

Estimation of vertical groundwater fluxes into a streambed through continuous temperature profile monitoring and the relationship of groundwater fluxes to coaster brook trout spawning habitat

We hypothesized that the spatial distribution of groundwater inflows through river bottom sediments is a critical factor associated with the selection of coaster brook trout (a life history variant of Salvelinus fontinalis,) spawning sites. An 80-m reach of the Salmon Trout River, in the Huron Mountains of the upper peninsula of Michigan, was selected to test the hypothesis based on long-term documentation of coaster brook trout spawning at this site. Throughout this site, the river is relatively similar along its length with regard to stream channel and substrate features. A monitoring well system consisting of an array of 27 wells was installed to measure subsurface temperatures underneath the riverbed over a 13-month period. The monitoring well locations were separated into areas where spawning has and has not been observed. Over 200,000 total temperature measurements were collected from 5 depths within each of the 27 monitoring wells. Temperatures within the substrate at the spawning area were generally cooler and less variable than river temperatures. Substrate temperatures in the non-spawning area were generally warmer, more variable, and closely tracked temporal variations in river temperatures. Temperature data were inverted to obtain subsurface groundwater velocities using a numerical approximation of the heat transfer equation. Approximately 45,000 estimates of groundwater velocities were obtained. Estimated velocities in the spawning and non-spawning areas confirmed that groundwater velocities in the spawning area were primarily in the upward direction, and were generally greater in magnitude than velocities in the non-spawning area. In the non-spawning area there was a greater occurrence of velocities in the downward direction, and velocity estimates were generally lesser in magnitude than in the spawning area. Both the temperature and velocity results confirm the hypothesis that spawning sites correspond to areas of significant groundwater influx to the river bed.

Validation of the estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) score in liver surgery

BACKGROUND: The estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) has been used to produce a numerical estimate of expected mortality and morbidity after elective gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was to validate E-PASS in a selected cohort of patients requiring liver resections (LR). METHODS: In this retrospective study, E-PASS predictor equations for morbidity and mortality were applied to the prospective data from 243 patients requiring LR. The observed rates were compared with predicted rates using Fisher's exact test. The discriminative capability of E-PASS was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The observed and predicted overall mortality rates were both 3.3% and the morbidity rates were 31.3 and 26.9%, respectively. There was a significant difference in the comprehensive risk scores for deceased and surviving patients (p = 0.043). However, the scores for patients with or without complications were not significantly different (p = 0.120). Subsequent ROC curve analysis revealed a poor predictive accuracy for morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The E-PASS score seems to effectively predict mortality in this specific group of patients but is a poor predictor of complications. A new modified logistic regression might be required for LR in order to better predict the postoperative outcome.