Social Policy in Canada – Looking Back, Looking Ahead (Working Paper 46)

This paper discusses recent policy trends, the changing role of the various actors in the system, international comparisons and a range of other social policy topics. The immediate purpose of the paper is to examine the reasons why social policy analysts need to look into the future, and to explore ways of managing the inevitably large risks associated with such future-looking exercises. The underlying purpose, however, is simply to introduce a range of important Canadian social policy topic to students and others who are interested in social policy, but without much previous background in the area.

Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

Palaeontological data about the climatic trends from Chattian to present along the Northeastern Atlantic frontage

Climatic changes that affected the Northeastern Atlantic frontage are analyzed on the basis of the evolution of faunas and floras from the late Oligocene onwards. The study deals with calcareous nannoplankton, marine micro- and macrofaunas, some terrestrial vertebrates and vegetal assemblages. The climate, first tropical, underwent a progressive cooling (North-South thermic gradient). Notable climatic deteriorations (withdrawal towards the South or disappearance of taxa indicative of warm climate and appearance of "cold" taxa) are evidenced mainly during the Middle Miocene and the late Pliocene. Faunas and floras of modern pattern have regained, after the Pleistocene glaciations, a new climatic ranging of a temperate type in the northern part.

Conceção e Análise de um Demonstrador para a Monitorização Estrutural

Os sistemas de monitorização de estruturas fornecem diversas vantagens, não só no que diz respeito à durabilidade da obra, ao aumento da segurança e do conhecimento relativamente ao comportamento das estruturas ao longo do tempo, à otimização do aspeto estrutural, bem como aos aspetos económicos do processo de construção e manutenção. A monitorização deve realizar-se durante a fase de construção e/ou de exploração da obra para permitir o registo integral do seu comportamento no meio externo. Deve efetuar-se de forma contínua e automática, executando intervenções de rotina para que se possa detetar precocemente sinais de alterações, respetivamente à segurança, integridade e desempenho funcional. Assim se poderá manter a estrutura dentro de parâmetros aceitáveis de segurança. Assim, na presente dissertação será concebido um demonstrador experimental, para ser estudado em laboratório, no qual será implementado um sistema de monitorização contínuo e automático. Sobre este demonstrador será feita uma análise de diferentes grandezas em medição, tais como: deslocamentos, extensões, temperatura, rotações e acelerações. Com carácter inovador, pretende-se ainda incluir neste modelo em sintonia de medição de coordenadas GNSS com o qual se torna possível medir deslocamentos absolutos. Os resultados experimentais alcançados serão analisados e comparados com modelos numéricos. Conferem-se os resultados experimentais de natureza estática e dinâmica, com os resultados numéricos de dois modelos de elementos finitos: um de barras e outro de casca. Realizaram-se diferentes abordagens tendo em conta as características identificadas por via experimental e calculadas nos modelos numéricos para melhor ajuste e calibração dos modelos numéricos Por fim, recorre-se a algoritmos de processamento e tratamento do respetivo sinal com aplicação de filtros, que revelam melhorar com rigor o sinal, de forma a potenciar as técnicas de fusão multisensor. Pretende-se integrar o sinal GNSS com os demais sensores presentes no sistema de monitorização. As técnicas de fusão multisensor visam melhor o desempenho deste potencial sistema de medição, demonstrando as suas valências no domínio da monitorização estrutural.

Climatic change in northeastern Brazil: paleoparasitological data

Trichuris eggs were observed in Kerodon rupestris coprolites dated 9,000 years before present, collected in archeological sites of São Raimundo Nonato, northeastern Brazil. However, present day local rodents seem not to be infected by the parasite, suggesting its disappearence due to climatic changes.

Dengue in Brazil - situation, transmission and control: a proposal for ecological control

This article discusses dengue in terms of its conceptual and historical aspects, epidemiological and clinical/pathological nature, and evolution up to the present situation in Brazil. The author discusses the ecological relationship in both the production of dengue and its control. Comparison is made between traditional dengue-control programs and a proposed socially-controlled program of an ecological nature without the use of insecticides. Stress is placed on interdisciplinary technical and scientific activity, broadbased participation by communities in discussing methodological aspects involving them, and prospective evaluation comparing the communities selected for intervention and control communities with regard to clinical and subclinical dengue cases and vector infestation rates in relation to climatic, socio-economic, and behavioural factors.

L'exploitation des eaux souterraines en Syrie centrale : construction de diagnostics et politiques d'intervention

Syrian dry areas have been for several millennia a place of interaction between human populations and the environment. If environmental constraints and heterogeneity condition the human occupation and exploitation of resources, socio-political, economic and historical elements play a fundamental role. Since the late 1980s, Syrian dry areas are viewed as suffering a serious water crisis, due to groundwater overdraft. The Syrian administration and international development agencies believe that groundwater overexploitation is also leading to a decline of agricultural activities and to poverty increase. Action is thus required to address these problems.However, the overexploitation diagnosis needs to be reviewed. The overexploitation discourse appears in the context of Syria's opening to international organizations and to the market economy. It echoes the international discourse of "global water crisis". The diagnosis is based on national indicators recycling old Soviet data that has not been updated. In the post-Soviet era, the Syrian national water policy seems to abandon large surface water irrigation projects in favor of a strategy of water use rationalization and groundwater conservation in crisis regions, especially in the district of Salamieh.This groundwater conservation policy has a number of inconsistencies. It is justified for the administration and also probably for international donors, since it responds to an indisputable environmental emergency. However, efforts to conserve water are anecdotal or even counterproductive. The water conservation policy appears a posteriori as an extension of the national policy of food self-sufficiency. The dominant interpretation of overexploitation, and more generally of the water crisis, prevents any controversary approach of the status of resources and of the agricultural system in general and thus destroys any attempt to discuss alternatives with respect to groundwater management, allocation, and their inclusion in development programs.A revisited diagnosis of the situation needs to take into account spatial and temporal dimensions of the groundwater exploitation and to analyze the co-evolution of hydrogeological and agricultural systems. It should highlight the adjustments adopted to cope with environmental and economic variability, changes of water availability and regulatory measures enforcements. These elements play an important role for water availability and for the spatial, temporal, sectoral allocation of water resource. The groundwater exploitation in the last century has obviously had an impact on the environment, but the changes are not necessarily catastrophic.The current groundwater use in central Syria increases the uncertainty by reducing the ability of aquifers to buffer climatic changes. However, the climatic factor is not the only source of uncertainty. The high volatility of commodity prices, fuel, land and water, depending on the market but also on the will (and capacity) of the Syrian State to preserve social peace is a strong source of uncertainty. The research should consider the whole range of possibilities and propose alternatives that take into consideration the risks they imply for the water users, the political will to support or not the local access to water - thus involving a redefinition of the economic and social objectives - and finally the ability of international organizations to reconsider pre-established diagnoses.

Proposta de pla d’ acció per la mitigació i l’ adaptació al canvi climàtic a la ciutat de Girona

La proposta general d’ aquest projecte és la presentació de les bases generals d’ un pla d’ acció per la mitigació i l’ adaptació al canvi climàtic a la ciutat de Girona, destinat a l’ administració local que permeti una millora de la situació actual en relació als possibles efectes i conseqüències del canvi climàtic.L’ estudi es basa en: l’ anàlisi dels efectes i conseqüències del canvi climàtic, un estudi de la situació actual de la ciutat de Girona i sobre les diferents percepcions i adaptacions de la població de Girona al canvi climàtic. Tot plegat destinat a l’ obtenció de les eines que ens permetin proposar possibles accions realitzar per part de l’ administració local

Beneficial effects of strontium ranelate compared to alendronate on bone micro-structure - a 2-year study

Aims: In a head-to-head study, we compared the effects of strontium ranelate (SrRan) and alendronate (ALN), anti-osteoporotic agents with antifracture efficacy, on bone microstructure, a component of bone quality, hence of bone strength. Methods: In a randomised, double-dummy, double-blind controlled trial, 88 postmenopausal osteoporotic women were randomised to SrRan 2g/day or ALN 70mg/week for 2 years. Microstructure of the distal radius and distal tibia were assessed by HR-pQCT after 3,6,12,18 and 24 months of treatment. Primary endpoint was HR-pQCT variables relative changes from baseline. An ITT analysis was applied. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar in both groups (mean ±SD): age: 63.6±7.5 vs. 63.7±7.6 yrs; L1-L4T Score: -2.7±0.8 vs. -2.8±0.8g/cm², Cortical Thickness (CTh), trabecular bone fraction (BV/TV) and cortical density=721±242 vs. 753±263μm, 9.5±2.5 vs. 9.3±2.7%, and 750±87 vs. 745±78mg/cm3 respectively. Over 2 yrs, distal radius values changes were within 1 to 2% without significant differences except cortical density. In contrast distal tibia CTh, BV/TV, trabecular and cortical densities increased significantly more in the SrRan group than in the ALN group (Table). No significant between-group differences were observed for the remaining measured parameter (trabecular number, trabecular spacing, and trabecular thickness). After 2 years, L1- L4 and hip aBMD increases were similar to results from pivotal trials (L1-L4:+6.5% and +5.6%;total hip:+4.1% and +2.9%, in Sr- Ran and ALN groups, respectively). In the SrRan group, bALP increased by a median of 18% (p<0.001) and sCTX decreased by a median of -16% (p=0.005) while in the ALN group, bALP and CTX decreased by median of -31% (p<0.001) and -59% (p<0.001) respectively. Relative changes from baseline to last observation (%) SrRan ALN Estimated between group difference p value CTh (μm) 6.29±9.53 0.93±6.23 5.411±1.836 0.004 BV/TV (%) 2.48±5.13 0.84±3.81 1.783±0.852 0.040 Trabecular density (mgHA/cm3) 2.47±5.07 0.88±4.00 1.729±0.859 0.048 Cortical density (mgHA/cm3) 1.43±2.77 0.36±2.14 1.137±0.530 0.045 The two treatments were well tolerated. Conclusions: Within the constraints related to HRpQCT technology, it appears that strontium ranelate has greater effects than alendronate on distal tibia cortical thickness, trabecular and cortical bone densities in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis after two years of treatment. A concomitant significant increase in bone formation marker is observed in the SrRan group.

Propuesta de un sistema de indicadores ambientales y socio económicos en la zona marino costera de Pisco - Paracas

Se presenta un breve diagnóstico de los aspectos ambientales, sociales y económicos del área marino costera de Pisco Paracas, cuya bahía forma parte de la zona de amortiguamiento de la Reserva Nacional de Paracas. A pesar de la importancia y fragilidad del ecosistema, y su proximidad en la zona de amortiguamiento de la Reserva, se ha permitido el asentamiento y desarrollo de diversas actividades extractivas, productivas con el consiguiente incremento en el tráfico marítimo. Diversos programas de vigilancia y seguimiento de entidades públicas o multisectoriales se han realizado en la zona, pero sin un enfoque más integral sobre las interacciones que se dan en un medio tan sui géneris como el medio marino Pisco-Paracas . Se realiza un análisis de la data histórica de los parámetros físico químicos de calidad acuática del período 2000-2010, obtenido principalmente de los programas de seguimiento o evaluación que realiza IMARPE y la empresa PLUS PETROL, contrastándolo con los valores ECA – Categoría 4 (DS 02-2008 – MINAM) a fin de determinar si ellos constituyen indicadores apropiados para determinar el estado real del ecosistema marino costero de Pisco – Paracas. La actual legislación de los recursos hídricos, no es muy clara ni precisa sobre la aplicabilidad para el control de los ECA‟ s en el ámbito marino; esta falta de precisión no contribuye a una vigilancia más eficiente. Con relación a ello, se alcanza una propuesta del sistema de indicadores que incluye parámetro biológico, como la determinación de las floraciones algales nocivas (FAN), episodios recurrentes en Pisco – Paracas; así mismo se introduce el tema de indicadores que midan el cambio en el ecosistema marino, con un enfoque más integral en la zona de Pisco – Paracas tan sujeta a cambios de origen climático

Periodic Solutions in Low-Dimensional Climatic Models

Classic climatic models use constitutive laws without any response time. A more realistic approach to the natural processes governing climate dynamics must introduce response time for heat and radiation fluxes. Extended irreversible thermodynamics (EIT) is a good thermodynamical framework for introducing nonclassical constitutive laws. In the present study EIT has been used to analyze a Budyko–Sellers one-dimensional energybalance model developed by G. R. North. The results present self-sustained periodic oscillations when the response time is greater than a critical value. The high-frequency (few kiloyears) damped and nondamped oscillations obtained can be related to abrupt climatic changes without any variation in the external forcing of the system

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) as a new complementary approach for osteoporosis evaluation in clinical practice.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a recently-developed analytical tool that performs novel grey-level texture measurements on lumbar spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images, and thereby captures information relating to trabecular microarchitecture. In order for TBS to usefully add to bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factors in osteoporosis risk stratification, it must be independently associated with fracture risk, readily obtainable, and ideally, present a risk which is amenable to osteoporosis treatment. This paper summarizes a review of the scientific literature performed by a Working Group of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis. Low TBS is consistently associated with an increase in both prevalent and incident fractures that is partly independent of both clinical risk factors and areal BMD (aBMD) at the lumbar spine and proximal femur. More recently, TBS has been shown to have predictive value for fracture independent of fracture probabilities using the FRAX® algorithm. Although TBS changes with osteoporosis treatment, the magnitude is less than that of aBMD of the spine, and it is not clear how change in TBS relates to fracture risk reduction. TBS may also have a role in the assessment of fracture risk in some causes of secondary osteoporosis (e.g., diabetes, hyperparathyroidism and glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis). In conclusion, there is a role for TBS in fracture risk assessment in combination with both aBMD and FRAX.

Las entidades sub-nacionales en Norteamérica y la lucha contra el cambio climático: desarrollo normativo y vinculación de sistemas de comercio de derechos de emisión

[spa] Mientras que en Europa la interdependencia y la dimensión transfronteriza de las cuestiones ligadas al cambio climático ha facilitado una cierta"continentalización" de la gestión de este fenómeno, favorecida por el carácter intergubernamental de las medidas que se adoptan en el marco de la Unión Europea, al otro lado del Atlántico la transversalidad de este mismo fenómeno explica la necesidad de que, ante las limitaciones del marco regional, se pongan en marcha mecanismos que faciliten la intervención no sólo estatal sino también de las entidades sub-nacionales. En este sentido, la ausencia de la acción federal tanto en Estados Unidos como en Canadá ha comportado un mayor desarrollo de la acción de las entidades sub-nacionales, que han tomado el liderazgo en la lucha contra el cambio climático. Son estas medidas las que se han visualizado en el escenario internacional. Ello ha favorecido el establecimiento de mecanismos de coordinación de la acción de estas entidades sub-nacionales en el seno de redes transnacionales, que han ido adquiriendo una mayor relevancia en la implementación del Convenio Marco sobre el Cambio Climático y del Protocolo de Kyoto, particularmente en relación a uno de sus instrumentos, el comercio de los derechos de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero. En este contexto, la futura vinculación de los sistemas de comercio de derechos de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero en Norteamérica con el sistema de la Unión Europea presenta diversos retos de carácter material y formal.