Lapin jääkauden jälkeisten ilmastonmuutosten rekonstruktiot

English abstract: Recontructing the postglacial climatic changes of Lapland

Phylogeography and Pleistocene refugia of the adder (Vipera berus) as inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequence data.

In order to contribute to the debate about southern glacial refugia used by temperate species and more northern refugia used by boreal or cold-temperate species, we examined the phylogeography of a widespread snake species (Vipera berus) inhabiting Europe up to the Arctic Circle. The analysis of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence variation in 1043 bp of the cytochrome b gene and in 918 bp of the noncoding control region was performed with phylogenetic approaches. Our results suggest that both the duplicated control region and cytochrome b evolve at a similar rate in this species. Phylogenetic analysis showed that V. berus is divided into three major mitochondrial lineages, probably resulting from an Italian, a Balkan and a Northern (from France to Russia) refugial area in Eastern Europe, near the Carpathian Mountains. In addition, the Northern clade presents an important substructure, suggesting two sequential colonization events in Europe. First, the continent was colonized from the three main refugial areas mentioned above during the Lower-Mid Pleistocene. Second, recolonization of most of Europe most likely originated from several refugia located outside of the Mediterranean peninsulas (Carpathian region, east of the Carpathians, France and possibly Hungary) during the Mid-Late Pleistocene, while populations within the Italian and Balkan Peninsulas fluctuated only slightly in distribution range, with larger lowland populations during glacial times and with refugial mountain populations during interglacials, as in the present time. The phylogeographical structure revealed in our study suggests complex recolonization dynamics of the European continent by V. berus, characterized by latitudinal as well as altitudinal range shifts, driven by both climatic changes and competition with related species.

Geographic variation of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula Hermann, 1780 Mammalia, Soricidae)

A multivariate morphometric study of the Greater white-toothed shrew (C. russula) throughout its Palearctic range was carried out to search for patterns of geographic variation within the species boundary. Burnaby's and multiple group principal component analysis allowed the adjustment of raw data with respect to within-sample allometric variation. Multivariate 'size-free' results show a stepped dine with the phenotypical trait reduction and shape change from the eastern to the western Maghreb. Pleistocene fossil mandibles proved to have low phenetic distances with eastern populations (Tunisia, east Algeria) and it is argued that their character set is the primitive condition. The ancestral Mid-Pleistocene shrews lived in a relatively more humid climate. Gee-climatic changes in the north African range during the Quaternary provoked phenetic variation of C. russula and, it can be argued, evolution of the modern western C.r. yebalensis. A historical process can thus be assumed as the main cause of this categorical variation, by segmentation of the species range due to gee-climatic events. Morphometric discontinuity within the C. russula Maghreb range is shown to be congruent with karyological and biochemical studies. Moroccan and Tunisian shrews differ, for example, in NFa chromosomes and electrophoretical traits. A stasipatric process should be invoked to explain categorical variation in the Maghreb range. Colonization and divergence of insular populations results in more or less differentiated geographic races. The populations of Ibiza and Pantelleria are close to the species threshold (Nei's D greater than or equal to 0.1). The process of speciation undergone by the Greater white-toothed shrew results in a complex pattern of geographic variation, including both allopatric and non-allopatric modes.

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts

Medio siglo de cambios paisajísticos en la montaña mediterránea. Percepción y valoración social del paisaje en la alta Garrotxa (Girona)

Rural depopulation and abandonment of farming activities have resulted in an intense transformation of the characteristic landscapes of Mediterranean mountains. A dynamic characterized by an intense process of expansion of forested cover in detriment to livestock and agricultural areas. This process, which produces effects such as biodiversity and cultural heritage loss and contributes to the spread of wildfires, can be mapped, quantified and described with high accuracy through the means of digital mapping, geographic information systems and landscape indexes. But what is the perception and valuation of these changes by the stakeholders involved in the management of these territories? This article attempts to answer this question in the protected area of Alta Garrotxa (Girona), where a strong correlation between landscape dynamics and their perception by the stakeholders is revealed. On the other hand, the valuation and future prospects produce diverse and often contradictory points of views that illustrate the existing difficulties to management

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Genes, environment and sex : perspectives from ectothermic vertebrates

RESUMELes modèles classiques sur l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels supposent que des gènes sexe- antagonistes s'accumulent sur les chromosomes sexuels, entraînant ainsi l'apparition d'une région non- recombinante, qui se répand progressivement en favorisant l'accumulation de mutations délétères. En accord avec cette théorie, les chromosomes sexuels que l'on observe aujourd'hui chez les mammifères et les oiseaux sont considérablement différenciés. En revanche, chez la plupart des vertébrés ectothermes, les chromosomes sexuels sont indifférenciés et il existe une impressionnante diversité de mécanismes de détermination du sexe. Au cours de cette thèse, j'ai étudié l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels chez les vertébrés ectothermes, en outre pour mieux comprendre ce contraste avec les vertébrés endothermes. L'hypothèse « high-turnover » postule que les chromosomes sexuels sont remplacés régulièrement à partir d'autosomes afin d'éviter leur dégénérescence. L'hypothèse « fountain-of-youth » propose que la recombinaison entre le chromosome X et le chromosome Y au sein de femelles XY empêche la dégénérescence. Les résultats de ma thèse, basés sur des études théoriques et empiriques, suggèrent que les deux processus peuvent être entraînés par l'environnement et ainsi jouent un rôle important dans l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels chez les vertébrés ectothermes.SUMMARYClassical models of sex-chromosome evolution assume that sexually antagonistic genes accumulate on sex chromosomes leading to a non-recombining region, which progressively expands and favors the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Concordant with this theory, sex chromosomes in extant mammals and birds are considerably differentiated. In most ectothermic vertebrates, such as frogs, however, sex chromosomes are undifferentiated and a striking diversity of sex determination systems is observed. This thesis was aimed to investigate this apparent contrast of sex chromosome evolution between endothermic and ectothermic vertebrates. The "high-turnover" hypothesis holds that sex chromosomes arose regularly from autosomes preventing decay. The "fountain-of-youth" hypothesis posits that sex chromosomes undergo episodic X-Y recombination in sex-reversed XY females, thereby purging ("rejuvenating") the Y chromosome. We suggest that both processes likely played an important role in sex chromosome evolution of ectothermic vertebrates. The literature largely views sex determination as a dichotomous process: individual sex is assumed to be determined either by genetic (genotypic sex determination, GSD) or by environmental factors (environmental sex determination, ESD), most often temperature (temperature sex determination, TSD). We endorsed an alternative view, which sees GSD and TSD as the ends of a continuum. The conservatism of molecular processes among different systems of sex determination strongly supports the continuum view. We proposed to define sex as a threshold trait underlain by a liability factor, and reaction norms allowing modeling interactions between genotypic and temperature effects. We showed that temperature changes (due to e.g., climatic changes or range expansions) are expected to provoke turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms maintaining homomorphic sex chromosomes. The balanced lethal system of crested newts might be the result of such a sex determination turnover, originating from two variants of ancient Y-chromosomes. Observations from a group of tree frogs, on the other hand, supported the 'fountain of youth' hypothesis. We then showed that low rates of sex- reversals in species with GSD might actually be adaptive considering joint effects of deleterious mutation purging and sexually antagonistic selection. Ongoing climatic changes are expected to threaten species with TSD by biasing population sex ratios. In contrast, species with GSD are implicitly assumed immune against such changes, because genetic systems are thought to necessarily produce even sex ratios. We showed that this assumption may be wrong and that sex-ratio biases by climatic changes may represent a previously unrecognized extinction threat for some GSD species.

Climate and sea-level variations along the northwestern Tethyan margin during the Valanginian C-isotope excursion: Mineralogical evidence from the Vocontian Basin (SE France)

A high resolution mineralogical study (bulk-rock and clay-fraction) was carried out upon the hemipelagic strata of the Angles section (Vocontian Basin, SE France) in which the Valanginian positive C-isotope excursion occurs. To investigate sea-level fluctuations and climate change respectively, a Detrital Index (DI: (phyllosilicates and quartz)/calcite) and a Weathering Index (WI: kaolinite/(illite + chlorite)) were established and compared to second-order sea-level fluctuations. In addition, the mineralogical data were compared with the High Nutrient Index (HNI, based on calcareous nannofossil taxa) data obtained by Duchamp-Alphonse et al. (2007), in order to assess the link between the hydrolysis conditions recorded on the surrounding continents and the trophic conditions inferred for the Vocontian Basin. It appears that the mineralogical distribution along the northwestern Tethyan margin is mainly influenced by sea-level changes during the Early Valanginian (Pertransiens to Stephanophorus ammonite Zones) and by climate variations from the late Early Valanginian to the base of the Hauterivian (top of the Stephanophorus to the Radiatus ammonite Zones). The sea-level fall observed in the Pertransiens ammonite Zone (Early Valanginian) is well expressed by an increase in detrital inputs (an increase in the DI) associated with a more proximal source and a shallower marine environment, whereas the sea-level rise recorded in the Stephanophorus ammonite Zone corresponds to a decrease in detrital influx (a decrease in the DI) as the source becomes more distal and the environment deeper. Interpretation of both DI and WI, indicates that the positive C-isotope excursion (top of the Stephanophorus to the Verrucosum ammonite Zones) is associated with an increase of detrital inputs under a stable, warm and humid climate, probably related to greenhouse conditions, the strongest hydrolysis conditions being reached at the maximum of the positive C-isotope excursion. From the Verrucosum ammonite Zone to the base of the Hauterivian (Radiatus ammonite Zone) climatic conditions evolved from weak hydrolysis conditions and, most likely, a cooler climate (resulting in a decrease in detrital inputs) to a seasonal climate in which more humid seasons alternated with more arid ones. The comparison of the WI to the HNI shows that the nutrification recorded al: the Angles section from the top of the Stephanophorus to the Radiatus ammonite Zones (including the positive C-isotope shift), is associated with climatic changes in the source areas. At that time, increased nutrient inputs were generally triggered by increased weathering processes in the source areas due to acceleration in the hydrological cycle under greenhouse conditions This scenario accords with the widely questioned palaeoenvironmental model proposed by Lini et al., (1992) and suggests that increasing greenhouse conditions are the main factor that drove the palaeoenvironmental changes observed in the hemipelagic realm of the Vocontian Basin, during the Valanginian positive C-isotope shift. This high-resolution mineralogical study highlights short-term climatic changes during the Valanginian, probably associated to rapid changes in the C-cycle. Coeval Massive Parana-Etendeka flood basalt eruptions may explain such rapid perturbations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

El canvi climàtic podria incremetar la biodiversitat del planeta

L"escalfament de la Terra i la invasió d"espècies té cara i creu. Al mateix temps que alteren l"equilibri dels ecosistemes, poden augmentar-ne la riquesa

Evaluación económica de los impactos del cambio climático sobre la salud

El Informe Stern, realizado a instancias del Gobierno Británico, se ha convertido en el documento paradigmático de la economía del cambio climático. No solo proporciona una estimación de los costes del cambio climático, sino que resulta ser una aportación fundamental a la evaluación de los datos existentes y al fomento de un mayor conocimiento de los aspectos económicos del cambio climático. El informe tiene una perspectiva internacional, por cuanto el cambio climático es un problema mundial, tanto en sus causas como en sus consecuencias. La adopción de medidas colectivas a nivel internacional es crucial para conseguir una respuesta eficaz, eficiente y equitativa. Así, se insta a la comunidad internacional a actuar con fuerza y de forma inmediata en la toma de decisiones que permitan reducir las emisiones (de CO2) para que los efectos del cambio climático no comiencen a ser irremediables. De hecho, la principal conclusión del informe es que los beneficios de la adopción de medidas prontas y firmes sobre el cambio climático superarán con creces los costes

Emission Trading and Tradable Green Certificates Impacts on the Business Activity of Vattenfall Oy

Ihmisen toiminnan vaikutus ilmakehään johtaa todennäköisesti ilmastonmuutoksiin. Eräs näistä muutoksista on maapallon keskilämpötilan nousu, joka aiheutuu kasvihuonekaasujen lisääntyneestä pitoisuudesta ilmakehässä. Vaikutusten vähentämiseksi on hiilidioksidipäästöjä vähennettävä. Kioton pöytäkirja asettaa allekirjoittaneille maille päästövelvoitteet. Euroopan unionin tulee vähentää kasvihuonekaasupäästöjään 8%:lla. Eräs vähennysmekanismeista on päästökauppa. Päästökauppa on sekä keino suojella ympäristöä että ympäristöpoliittinen instrumentti kasvihuonekaasupäästövähennysten kustannusten keventämiseksi. Päästökauppa ei suoranaisesti vähennä kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä, vaan tasaa niitä maiden ja laitosten välillä. Uusiutuvan energian käytön edistäminen sekä kansainvälisesti että kansallisesti johtaa suoriin kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähenemiseen. Euroopan unionin jäsenvaltiot ovat asettaneet kansalliset viitearvot uusituvan sähkön kulutukselle. Saavuttaakseen nämä viitearvot maiden tulee tukea uusiutuvia energialähteitä eri menetelmin kuten vihreillä sertifikaateilla. Päästökauppa ja kaupattavat vihreät sertifikaatit tulevat vaikuttamaan energiantuottajien liiketoimintaan. Työssä on tutkittu päästökaupan ja vihreiden sertifikaattien vaikutuksia Vattenfall Kaukolämpö Oy:n, Vattenfall Sähköntuotanto Oy:n ja Vamy Oy:n liiketoimintaan.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.