Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in experiences of European countries

The connection between road traffic safety and criminal behavior has recently become a topic of interest in the literature, although little emphasis placed on the relationship with road accidents. Evidence worldwide shows that people who commit other offences characteristic of antisocial attitudes, are more prone to suffer road traffic accidents and infringe traffic laws. Here we examine the records of the 28 current member states of the European Union over the period 1999 - 2010. Our aim is to test the hypothesis that crime rates (and specifically, motor vehicle-related crimes) may be considered as predictors of fatal road traffic accidents. If they may, this could justify, at least prima facie, the tendency in several countries to consider traffic offences as crimes in their penal codes and to toughen the punishment imposed on those who commit them. We also analyze the effect of the severity of the legal system applied to traffic offences. Our results reveal that road traffic fatality rates are higher in countries whose inhabitants have more aggressive behavior, while the rates are lower in countries with more severe penal systems.

Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in experiences of European countries

The connection between road traffic safety and criminal behavior has recently become a topic of interest in the literature, although little emphasis placed on the relationship with road accidents. Evidence worldwide shows that people who commit other offences characteristic of antisocial attitudes, are more prone to suffer road traffic accidents and infringe traffic laws. Here we examine the records of the 28 current member states of the European Union over the period 1999 - 2010. Our aim is to test the hypothesis that crime rates (and specifically, motor vehicle-related crimes) may be considered as predictors of fatal road traffic accidents. If they may, this could justify, at least prima facie, the tendency in several countries to consider traffic offences as crimes in their penal codes and to toughen the punishment imposed on those who commit them. We also analyze the effect of the severity of the legal system applied to traffic offences. Our results reveal that road traffic fatality rates are higher in countries whose inhabitants have more aggressive behavior, while the rates are lower in countries with more severe penal systems.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29 PER CENT, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90 PER CENT on Saturdays, 4.29 PER CENT on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45 PER CENT) than for women (0.64 PER CENT) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62 PER CENT, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84 PER CENT, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: A European case study

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of fatalities and the associated economic losses. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200,000 million euros, a considerable sum ¿ approximately 2% of GDP ¿ that easily justifies any public intervention. One measure taken by governments to address this issue is to enact stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the greatest concerns among public authorities in this field, several European countries have lowered their illegal Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study is the first evaluation of the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 with the differences-in-differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). The results reveal a positive impact on certain groups of road users and on the whole population when the policy is accompanied by enforcement interventions. Moreover, positive results appeared after a time lag of over two years. Finally, I state the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this type of policy.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: A European case study

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of fatalities and the associated economic losses. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200,000 million euros, a considerable sum ¿ approximately 2% of GDP ¿ that easily justifies any public intervention. One measure taken by governments to address this issue is to enact stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the greatest concerns among public authorities in this field, several European countries have lowered their illegal Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study is the first evaluation of the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 with the differences-in-differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). The results reveal a positive impact on certain groups of road users and on the whole population when the policy is accompanied by enforcement interventions. Moreover, positive results appeared after a time lag of over two years. Finally, I state the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this type of policy.

Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16.081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

Temporal Patterns of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Road Accidents in Young Swiss Men: Seasonal, Weekday and Public Holiday Effects.

AIMS: To assess seasonal, weekday, and public holiday effects on alcohol-related road accidents and drinking diaries among young Swiss men. METHODS: Federal road accident data (35,485 accidents) from Switzerland and drinking diary data from a large cohort of young Swiss men (11,930 subjects) were analysed for temporal effects by calendar week, weekday and public holiday (Christmas, New Years, National Day). Alcohol-related accidents were analysed using rate ratios for observed versus expected numbers of accidents and proportions of alcohol-related accidents relative to the total number. Drinking diaries were analysed for the proportion of drinkers, median number of drinks consumed, and the 90th percentile's number of drinks consumed. RESULTS: Several parallel peaks were identified in alcohol-related accidents and drinking diaries. These included increases on Fridays and Saturdays, with Saturday drinking extending until early Sunday morning, an increase during the summer on workdays but not weekends, an increase at the end of the year, and increases on public holidays and the evening before. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest specific time-windows that are associated with increases in drinking and alcohol-related harm. Established prevention measures should be enforced during these time-windows to reduce associated peaks.

Accidents vasculaires cérébraux caméléons dans un centre hospitalier universitsaire : facteurs de risque, circonstances et devenir

Objectif : Identifier les facteurs de risques, circonstances et devenir des patients avec un accident vasculaire cérébral ischémique (AVC) manqué (AVC caméléon) dans le département des urgences d'un hôpital universitaire. Méthode : Nous avons rétrospectivement revu tous les patients avec un AVC ischémique d'un registre construit prospectivement (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne, ASTRAL) sur une durée de 8.25 années. Les AVC caméléons ont été définis comme un échec de suspicion d'AVC ou comme une exclusion erronée de diagnostic d'AVC. Ils ont été comparés aux AVC correctement suspectés à l'admission. Résultats : Quarante sept sur 2'200 AVC ont été manqués (2.1%). Ces AVC caméléons étaient soit peu sévères soit très sévères. L'analyse multivariée a montré chez les patients avec un AVC caméléon un plus jeune âge (odds ratio (OR) par année 0.98 p<0.01), moins de traitement hypolipémiant (OR 0.29, p=0.04), pression artérielle diastolique à l'admission plus basse (OR 0.98 p=0.04). Ils ont montré moins de déviation du regard (OR 0.21, p=0.04), et d'avantage d'AVC à localisation cérébelleuse (OR 3.78, p>0.01). Les AVC caméléons ont initialement été faussement diagnostiqués en tant qu'une autre pathologie neurologique (46.2% des cas) ou non neurologique (17%), en tant qu'une baisse de l'état de vigilance inexpliquée (21.3%), et en tant que maladie concomitante (19.1%). A 12 mois, les patients avec un AVC caméléon ont un devenir moins bon (OR ajusté 0.21, p<0.01) et une mortalité augmentée (OR ajusté 4 37 p<0.01). Conclusions : Le diagnostic d'AVC est manqué chez les patients jeunes avec un risque cérébrovasculaire peu élévé et peut être masqué par d'autres pathologies aiguës. Les AVC caméléons se présentent cliniquement soit avec un AVC peu sévère ou par une diminution de l'état de vigilance, avec moins de signes neurologiques focaux et sont plus fréquemment de localisation cérébelleuse. Le devenir est quant à lui moins bon avec également une mortalité augmentée à 12 mois. De telles trouvailles devraient rendre plus attentif le clinicien aux urgences du profil des AVC caméléons.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

ClientBS : Aplicació Android per a l'ajuda en les preses de medicaments

L'objectiu principal d'aquest treball és desenvolupar una aplicació Android destinada a aquells pacients en tractament mèdic que estiguin donats d'alta en alguna de les farmàcies vinculades a un servei professional paral·lel dedicat a l'ajut en l'emplenat de SPDs (sistema personalitzat de dosificació). Aquesta aplicació pretén proporcionar-li una ajuda directa al pacient en diversos aspectes: obtenint la seva posologia mèdica acordada amb la farmàcia, configurant els horaris de les preses dels medicaments i rebent notificacions o alertes relatives a aquestes preses directament al seu dispositiu.

Determinants of the decision to appeal against motor bodily injury settlements awarded by Spanish trial courts

Automobile bodily injury disputes represent one of the main causes of litigation faced by Spanish Courts. In this paper a multinomial model is implemented to analyse which factors determine the decision to appeal against the verdicts of trial courts. Use of a dataset of motor insurance claims revealed differences between the determinants of a claimant’s decision to appeal and those of insurers. Among other results it is shown that discrepancies regarding the permanent disability sustained affect the insurer’s decision to appeal. In contrast, the claimant pays more attention to differences in the stated temporary disability. Conclusions are drawn regarding which factors could reduce the percentage of appealed cases.