Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

Temporal Patterns of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Road Accidents in Young Swiss Men: Seasonal, Weekday and Public Holiday Effects.

AIMS: To assess seasonal, weekday, and public holiday effects on alcohol-related road accidents and drinking diaries among young Swiss men. METHODS: Federal road accident data (35,485 accidents) from Switzerland and drinking diary data from a large cohort of young Swiss men (11,930 subjects) were analysed for temporal effects by calendar week, weekday and public holiday (Christmas, New Years, National Day). Alcohol-related accidents were analysed using rate ratios for observed versus expected numbers of accidents and proportions of alcohol-related accidents relative to the total number. Drinking diaries were analysed for the proportion of drinkers, median number of drinks consumed, and the 90th percentile's number of drinks consumed. RESULTS: Several parallel peaks were identified in alcohol-related accidents and drinking diaries. These included increases on Fridays and Saturdays, with Saturday drinking extending until early Sunday morning, an increase during the summer on workdays but not weekends, an increase at the end of the year, and increases on public holidays and the evening before. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest specific time-windows that are associated with increases in drinking and alcohol-related harm. Established prevention measures should be enforced during these time-windows to reduce associated peaks.

Accidents vasculaires cérébraux caméléons dans un centre hospitalier universitsaire : facteurs de risque, circonstances et devenir

Objectif : Identifier les facteurs de risques, circonstances et devenir des patients avec un accident vasculaire cérébral ischémique (AVC) manqué (AVC caméléon) dans le département des urgences d'un hôpital universitaire. Méthode : Nous avons rétrospectivement revu tous les patients avec un AVC ischémique d'un registre construit prospectivement (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne, ASTRAL) sur une durée de 8.25 années. Les AVC caméléons ont été définis comme un échec de suspicion d'AVC ou comme une exclusion erronée de diagnostic d'AVC. Ils ont été comparés aux AVC correctement suspectés à l'admission. Résultats : Quarante sept sur 2'200 AVC ont été manqués (2.1%). Ces AVC caméléons étaient soit peu sévères soit très sévères. L'analyse multivariée a montré chez les patients avec un AVC caméléon un plus jeune âge (odds ratio (OR) par année 0.98 p<0.01), moins de traitement hypolipémiant (OR 0.29, p=0.04), pression artérielle diastolique à l'admission plus basse (OR 0.98 p=0.04). Ils ont montré moins de déviation du regard (OR 0.21, p=0.04), et d'avantage d'AVC à localisation cérébelleuse (OR 3.78, p>0.01). Les AVC caméléons ont initialement été faussement diagnostiqués en tant qu'une autre pathologie neurologique (46.2% des cas) ou non neurologique (17%), en tant qu'une baisse de l'état de vigilance inexpliquée (21.3%), et en tant que maladie concomitante (19.1%). A 12 mois, les patients avec un AVC caméléon ont un devenir moins bon (OR ajusté 0.21, p<0.01) et une mortalité augmentée (OR ajusté 4 37 p<0.01). Conclusions : Le diagnostic d'AVC est manqué chez les patients jeunes avec un risque cérébrovasculaire peu élévé et peut être masqué par d'autres pathologies aiguës. Les AVC caméléons se présentent cliniquement soit avec un AVC peu sévère ou par une diminution de l'état de vigilance, avec moins de signes neurologiques focaux et sont plus fréquemment de localisation cérébelleuse. Le devenir est quant à lui moins bon avec également une mortalité augmentée à 12 mois. De telles trouvailles devraient rendre plus attentif le clinicien aux urgences du profil des AVC caméléons.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Determinants of the decision to appeal against motor bodily injury settlements awarded by Spanish trial courts

Automobile bodily injury disputes represent one of the main causes of litigation faced by Spanish Courts. In this paper a multinomial model is implemented to analyse which factors determine the decision to appeal against the verdicts of trial courts. Use of a dataset of motor insurance claims revealed differences between the determinants of a claimant’s decision to appeal and those of insurers. Among other results it is shown that discrepancies regarding the permanent disability sustained affect the insurer’s decision to appeal. In contrast, the claimant pays more attention to differences in the stated temporary disability. Conclusions are drawn regarding which factors could reduce the percentage of appealed cases.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Determining risk potential through accidents and near-accidents: an empirical study in a steel factory

Fatal and permanently disabling accidents form only one per I cent of all occupational accidents but in many branches of industry they account for more than half the accident costs. Furthermore the human suffering of the victim and his family is greater in severe accidents than in slight ones. For both human and economic reasons the severe accident risks should be identified befor injuries occur. It is for this purpose that different safety analysis methods have been developed . This study shows two new possible approaches to the problem.. The first is the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate the potential severity of accidents independent of the actual severity. The second is the hypothesis that when workers are also asked to report near accidents, they are particularly prone to report potentially severe near accidents on the basis of their own subjective risk assessment. A field study was carried out in a steel factory. The results supported both the hypotheses. The reliability and the validity of post incident estimates of an accident's potential severity were reasonable. About 10 % of accidents were estimated to be potentially critical; they could have led to death or very severe permanent disability. Reported near accidents were significantly more severe, about 60 $ of them were estimated to be critical. Furthermore the validity of workers subjective risk assessment, manifested in the near accident reports, proved to be reasonable. The studied new methods require further development and testing. They could be used both in routine usage in work places and in research for identifying and setting the priorities of accident risks.

Induced maritime accidents

Humanity system of life is highly supported by maritime transport when circa 8 thousand million people require about 8.800 million tons of merchandises by sea, going in some 105.000 merchant ships of over 100 GT, sailing every thinkable dangerous waters 365 days year 24 hours day. All that Enormous activity plus others different factors produce accidents, as is shown in an ascendant 1.7 rate related to ships lost with big number in life, cargoes losses, and pollution. That is why this study pretend to detect causes factors of maritime accidents, to try to reduce them, and with that targetin mind it was tested the new theory of Induced Maritime Accidents, crossing itsproposals with relevant sinister of different times and circumstances, as Andrea Doria, Torrey Canyon, Costa Concordia, among others. Those cases were re evaluated to establish the key points of such theory, as they are the Production Pressure, the Risk Homeostasis, technological advances and the rupture of safety margin. Cases studies gave as result the existence of referred key points, in a manner combined that the chain of events derived to the fatality, and more than that highlights the possibility that been suppressed to acceptable limits the production pressure or the risk homeostasis, a permissible safety margin were been maintained, avoiding catastrophe.

Efectos del alcohol y conducción de vehículos: creencias y conductas de los jóvenes

Traffic accidents are one of the causes of death for people between 1 and 45 years old. Many studies verify that the road accidents are related with the consumption of alcohol. This problem, is especially important in the young people and it is increased during dawns of the weekends. Some studies underline the lack of information and knowledge of many young people concerning law on alcohol consummation when driving and the effects of this drug on consumers. Another problem is the amount of mistaken beliefs on what to do neutralize the alcohol’s effect before drive. The objective of our study is to evaluate, in university students, the knowledge of the rules of driving behavior included in the circulation code and the personal beliefs about the effects of the alcohol in driving, and to find the frequency and the circumstances in which young people drive after alcohol consummation. The results suggest many actions that may be considered in the design of preventive campaigns that promotes safety road behavior in order to increase their effectivity