The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Identification of a Highly Antigenic Linear B Cell Epitope within Plasmodium vivax Apical Membrane Antigen 1 (AMA-1)

Apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1) is considered to be a major candidate antigen for a malaria vaccine. Previous immunoepidemiological studies of naturally acquired immunity to Plasmodium vivax AMA-1 (PvAMA-1) have shown a higher prevalence of specific antibodies to domain II (DII) of AMA-1. In the present study, we confirmed that specific antibody responses from naturally infected individuals were highly reactive to both full-length AMA-1 and DII. Also, we demonstrated a strong association between AMA-1 and DII IgG and IgG subclass responses. We analyzed the primary sequence of PvAMA-1 for B cell linear epitopes co-occurring with intrinsically unstructured/ disordered regions (IURs). The B cell epitope comprising the amino acid sequence 290-307 of PvAMA-1 (SASDQPTQYEEEMTDYQK), with the highest prediction scores, was identified in domain II and further selected for chemical synthesis and immunological testing. The antigenicity of the synthetic peptide was identified by serological analysis using sera from P. vivax-infected individuals who were knowingly reactive to the PvAMA-1 ectodomain only, domain II only, or reactive to both antigens. Although the synthetic peptide was recognized by all serum samples specific to domain II, serum with reactivity only to the full-length protein presented 58.3% positivity. Moreover, IgG reactivity against PvAMA-1 and domain II after depletion of specific synthetic peptide antibodies was reduced by 18% and 33% (P = 0.0001 for both), respectively. These results suggest that the linear epitope SASDQPTQYEEEMTDYQK is highly antigenic during natural human infections and is an important antigenic region of the domain II of PvAMA-1, suggesting its possible future use in pre-clinical studies.

Identification of possible targets of the Aspergillus fumigatus CRZ1 homologue, CrzA

Background: Calcineurin, a serine/threonine-specific protein phosphatase, plays an important role in the control of cell morphology and virulence in fungi. Calcineurin regulates localization and activity of a transcription factor called CRZ1. Recently, we characterize Aspergillus fumigatus CRZ1 homologue, AfCrzA. Here, we investigate which pathways are influenced by A. fumigatus AfCrzA during a short pulse of calcium by comparatively determining the transcriptional profile of A. fumigatus wild type and.AfcrzA mutant strains. Results: We were able to observe 3,622 genes modulated in at least one timepoint in the mutant when compared to the wild type strain (3,211 and 411 at 10 and 30 minutes, respectively). Decreased mRNA abundance in the Delta crzA was seen for genes encoding calcium transporters, transcription factors and genes that could be directly or indirectly involved in calcium metabolism. Increased mRNA accumulation was observed for some genes encoding proteins involved in stress response. AfCrzA overexpression in A. fumigatus increases the expression of several of these genes. The deleted strain of one of these genes, AfRcnA, belonging to a class of endogenous calcineurin regulators, calcipressins, had more calcineurin activity after exposure to calcium and was less sensitive to menadione 30 mu M, hydrogen peroxide 2.5 mM, EGTA 25 mM, and MnCl(2) 25 mM. We constructed deletion, overexpression, and GFP fusion protein for the closely related A. nidulans AnRcnA. GFP

Allosteric Control of Gating Mechanisms Revisited: The Large Conductance Ca(2+)-Activated K(+) Channel

Large-conductance Ca(2+)-activated K(+) channels (BK) play a fundamental role in modulating membrane potential in many cell types. The gating of BK channels and its modulation by Ca(2+) and voltage has been the subject of intensive research over almost three decades, yielding several of the most complicated kinetic mechanisms ever proposed. A large number of open and closed states disposed, respectively, in two planes, named tiers, characterize these mechanisms. Transitions between states in the same plane are cooperative and modulated by Ca(2+). Transitions across planes are highly concerted and voltage-dependent. Here we reexamine the validity of the two-tiered hypothesis by restricting attention to the modulation by Ca(2+). Large single channel data sets at five Ca(2+) concentrations were simultaneously analyzed from a Bayesian perspective by using hidden Markov models and Markov-chain Monte Carlo stochastic integration techniques. Our results support a dramatic reduction in model complexity, favoring a simple mechanism derived from the Monod-Wyman-Changeux allosteric model for homotetramers, able to explain the Ca(2+) modulation of the gating process. This model differs from the standard Monod-Wyman-Changeux scheme in that one distinguishes when two Ca(2+) ions are bound to adjacent or diagonal subunits of the tetramer.

Identification of Neoplasias of Breast Tissues Using a Powder Diffractometer

An investigation was carried out to study the potential use of the angular distribution of scattered photons by human breast samples for a rapid identification of neoplasias of breast tissues. This technique has possible applications as diagnostic aid for breast cancer. In this work, a commercial powder diffractometer was used to obtain the scattering profiles from breast tissues histopathologically classified as normal breast tissues, fibroadenomas (benign breast diseases) and carcinomas (malignant breast diseases), in the interval 0.02 angstrom(-1) < x < 0.62 angstrom(-1). The experimental methods and data corrections are discussed in detail, and they included background subtraction, polarization, self-attenuation and geometric effects. The validation of the experimental procedure was achieved through an analysis of water sample. The results showed that the scattering profile is a unique impression of each type of tissue, being correlated with their microscopic morphological features. Multivariate analysis was applied to these profiles in order to verify if the information carried by these scattering profiles allow the differentiation between normal, benign and malignant breast tissues. The statistical analysis results showed that a correct identification of 75% of the analyzed samples is accomplished. The values of sensibility and specificity of this method in correctly differentiating between normal and neoplastic samples were 95.6% and 82.3%, respectively, while the values for differentiation between benign and malignant neoplasias were 78.6% and 62.5%. These initial results indicate the feasible use of commercial powder diffractometer to provide a rapid diagnostic with a high sensitivity.

Fluorescence and reflectance spectroscopy for identification of atherosclerosis in human carotid arteries using principal components analysis

Objectives: The aim of this work was to verify the differentiation between normal and pathological human carotid artery tissues by using fluorescence and reflectance spectroscopy in the 400- to 700-nm range and the spectral characterization by means of principal components analysis. Background Data: Atherosclerosis is the most common and serious pathology of the cardiovascular system. Principal components represent the main spectral characteristics that occur within the spectral data and could be used for tissue classification. Materials and Methods: Sixty postmortem carotid artery fragments (26 non-atherosclerotic and 34 atherosclerotic with non-calcified plaques) were studied. The excitation radiation consisted of a 488-nm argon laser. Two 600-mu m core optical fibers were used, one for excitation and one to collect the fluorescence radiation from the samples. The reflectance system was composed of a halogen lamp coupled to an excitation fiber positioned in one of the ports of an integrating sphere that delivered 5 mW to the sample. The photo-reflectance signal was coupled to a 1/4-m spectrograph via an optical fiber. Euclidean distance was then used to classify each principal component score into one of two classes, normal and atherosclerotic tissue, for both fluorescence and reflectance. Results: The principal components analysis allowed classification of the samples with 81% sensitivity and 88% specificity for fluorescence, and 81% sensitivity and 91% specificity for reflectance. Conclusions: Our results showed that principal components analysis could be applied to differentiate between normal and atherosclerotic tissue with high sensitivity and specificity.

Genome Survey Sequence Analysis and Identification of Homologs of Major Surface Protease (gp63) Genes in Trypanosoma rangeli

In this study, 222 genome survey sequences were generated for Trypanosoma rangeli strain P07 isolated from an opossum (Didelphis albiventris) in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. T. rangeli sequences were compared by BLASTX (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool X) analysis with the assembled contigs of Leishmania braziliensis, Leishmania infantum, Leishmania major, Trypanosoma brucei, and Trypanosoma cruzi. Results revealed that 82% (182/222) of the sequences were associated with predicted proteins described, whereas 18% (40/222) of the sequences did not show significant identity with sequences deposited in databases, suggesting that they may represent T. rangeli-specific sequences. Among the 182 predicted sequences, 179 (80.6%) had the highest similarity with T. cruzi, 2 (0.9%) with T. brucei, and 1 (0.5%) with L. braziliensis. Computer analysis permitted the identification of members of various gene families described for trypanosomatids in the genome of T. rangeli, such as trans-sialidases, mucin-associated surface proteins, and major surface proteases (MSP or gp63). This is the first report identifying sequences of the MSP family in T. rangeli. Multiple sequence alignments showed that the predicted MSP of T. rangeli presented the typical characteristics of metalloproteases, such as the presence of the HEXXH motif, which corresponds to a region previously associated with the catalytic site of the enzyme, and various cysteine and proline residues, which are conserved among MSPs of different trypanosomatid species. Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analysis revealed the presence of MSP transcripts in epimastigote forms of T. rangeli.

Chaotic model and memory in single calcium-activated potassium channel kinetics

Ion channels are pores formed by proteins and responsible for carrying ion fluxes through cellular membranes. The ion channels can assume conformational states thereby controlling ion flow. Physically, the conformational transitions from one state to another are associated with energy barriers between them and are dependent on stimulus, such as, electrical field, ligands, second messengers, etc. Several models have been proposed to describe the kinetics of ion channels. The classical Markovian model assumes that a future transition is independent of the time that the ion channel stayed in a previous state. Others models as the fractal and the chaotic assume that the rate of transitions between the states depend on the time that the ionic channel stayed in a previous state. For the calcium activated potassium channels of Leydig cells the R/S Hurst analysis has indicated that the channels are long-term correlated with a Hurst coefficient H around 0.7, showing a persistent memory in this kinetic. Here, we applied the R/S analysis to the opening and closing dwell time series obtained from simulated data from a chaotic model proposed by L. Liebovitch and T. Toth [J. Theor. Biol. 148, 243 (1991)] and we show that this chaotic model or any model that treats the set of channel openings and closings as independent events is inadequate to describe the long-term correlation (memory) already described for the experimental data. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

In Vitro Identification of Novel Plasminogen-Binding Receptors of the Pathogen Leptospira interrogans

Background: Leptospirosis is a multisystem disease caused by pathogenic strains of the genus Leptospira. We have reported that Leptospira are able to bind plasminogen (PLG), to generate active plasmin in the presence of activator, and to degrade purified extracellular matrix fibronectin. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have now cloned, expressed and purified 14 leptospiral recombinant proteins. The proteins were confirmed to be surface exposed by immunofluorescence microscopy and were evaluated for their ability to bind plasminogen (PLG). We identified eight as PLG-binding proteins, including the major outer membrane protein LipL32, the previously published rLIC12730, rLIC10494, Lp29, Lp49, LipL40 and MPL36, and one novel leptospiral protein, rLIC12238. Bound PLG could be converted to plasmin by the addition of urokinase-type PLG activator (uPA), showing specific proteolytic activity, as assessed by its reaction with the chromogenic plasmin substrate, D-Val-Leu-Lys 4-nitroanilide dihydrochloride. The addition of the lysine analog 6-aminocaproic acid (ACA) inhibited the protein-PLG interaction, thus strongly suggesting the involvement of lysine residues in plasminogen binding. The binding of leptospiral surface proteins to PLG was specific, dose-dependent and saturable. PLG and collagen type IV competed with LipL32 protein for the same binding site, whereas separate binding sites were observed for plasma fibronectin. Conclusions/Significance: PLG-binding/activation through the proteins/receptors on the surface of Leptospira could help the bacteria to specifically overcome tissue barriers, facilitating its spread throughout the host.

Identification of three distinguishable phenotypes in golden retriever muscular dystrophy

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a human disease characterized by progressive and irreversible skeletal muscle degeneration caused by mutations in genes coding for important muscle proteins. Unfortunately, there is no efficient treatment for this disease; it causes progressive loss of motor and muscular ability until death. The canine model (golden retriever muscular dystrophy) is similar to DMD, showing similar clinical signs. Fifteen dogs were followed from birth and closely observed for clinical signs. Dogs had their disease status confirmed by polymerase chain reaction analysis and genotyping. Clinical observations of musculoskeletal, morphological, gastrointestinal, respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal features allowed us to identify three distinguishable phenotypes in dystrophic dogs: mild (grade I), moderate (grade II) and severe (grade III). These three groups showed no difference in dystrophic alterations of muscle morphology and creatine kinase levels. This information will be useful for therapeutic trials, because DMD also shows significant, inter- and intra-familiar clinical variability. Additionally, being aware of phenotypic differences in this animal model is essential for correct interpretation and understanding of results obtained in pre-clinical trials.

A Lagrangian Identification of the Main Sources of Moisture Affecting Northeastern Brazil during Its Pre-Rainy and Rainy Seasons

This work examines the sources of moisture affecting the semi-arid Brazilian Northeast (NEB) during its pre-rainy and rainy season (JFMAM) through a Lagrangian diagnosis method. The FLEXPART model identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region through the continuous computation of changes in the specific humidity along back or forward trajectories up to 10 days period. The numerical experiments were done for the period that spans between 2000 and 2004 and results were aggregated on a monthly basis. Results show that besides a minor local recycling component, the vast majority of moisture reaching NEB area is originated in the south Atlantic basin and that the nearby wet Amazon basin bears almost no impact. Moreover, although the maximum precipitation in the ""Poligono das Secas'' region (PS) occurs in March and the maximum precipitation associated with air parcels emanating from the South Atlantic towards PS is observed along January to March, the highest moisture contribution from this oceanic region occurs slightly later (April). A dynamical analysis suggests that the maximum precipitation observed in the PS sector does not coincide with the maximum moisture supply probably due to the combined effect of the Walker and Hadley cells in inhibiting the rising motions over the region in the months following April.

Optical identification of the transient supersoft X-ray source RX J0527.8-6954, in the LMC

Context. Close binary supersoft X-ray sources (CBSS) are binary systems that contain a white dwarf with stable nuclear burning on its surface. These sources, first discovered in the Magellanic Clouds, have high accretion rates and near-Eddington luminosities (10(37)-10(38) erg s(-1)) with high temperatures (T = 2-7 x 10(5) K). Aims. The total number of known objects in the MC is still small and, in our galaxy, even smaller. We observed the field of the unidentified transient supersoft X-ray source RX J0527.8-6954 in order to identify its optical counterpart. Methods. The observation was made with the IFU-GMOS on the Gemini South telescope with the purpose of identifying stars with possible He II or Balmer emission or else of observing nebular extended jets or ionization cones, features that may be expected in CBSS. Results. The X-ray source is identified with a B5e V star that is associated with subarcsecond extended H alpha emission, possibly bipolar. Conclusions. If the primary star is a white dwarf, as suggested by the supersoft X-ray spectrum, the expected orbital period exceeds 21 h; therefore, we believe that the 9.4 h period found so far is not associated to this system.

PFLEIDERER 2: IDENTIFICATION OF A NEW GLOBULAR CLUSTER IN THE GALAXY

We provide evidence that indicates the star cluster Pfleiderer 2, which is projected in a rich field, as a newly identified Galactic globular cluster. Since it is located in a crowded field, core extraction and decontamination tools were applied to reveal the cluster sequences in B, V, and I color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs). The main CMD features of Pfleiderer 2 are a tilted red giant branch and a red horizontal branch, indicating a high metallicity around solar. The reddening is E(B - V) = 1.01. The globular cluster is located at a distance of d(circle dot) = 16 +/- 2 kpc from the Sun. The cluster is located 2.7 kpc above the Galactic plane and at a distance of R(GC) = 9.7 kpc from the Galactic center, which is unusual for a metal-rich globular cluster.

Expression of an activating mutation in the gene encoding the K(ATP) channel subunit Kir6.2 in mouse pancreatic beta cells recapitulates neonatal diabetes

Neonatal diabetes is a rare monogenic form of diabetes that usually presents within the first six months of life. It is commonly caused by gain-of-function mutations in the genes encoding the Kir6.2 and SUR1 subunits of the plasmalemmal ATP-sensitive K(+) (K(ATP)) channel. To better understand this disease, we generated a mouse expressing a Kir6.2 mutation (V59M) that causes neonatal diabetes in humans and we used Cre-lox technology to express the mutation specifically in pancreatic beta cells. These beta-V59M mice developed severe diabetes soon after birth, and by 5 weeks of age, blood glucose levels were markedly increased and insulin was undetectable. Islets isolated from beta-V59M mice secreted substantially less insulin and showed a smaller increase in intracellular calcium in response to glucose. This was due to a reduced sensitivity of K(ATP) channels in pancreatic beta cells to inhibition by ATP or glucose. In contrast, the sulfonylurea tolbutamide, a specific blocker of K(ATP) channels, closed K(ATP) channels, elevated intracellular calcium levels, and stimulated insulin release in beta-V59M beta cells, indicating that events downstream of K(ATP) channel closure remained intact. Expression of the V59M Kir6.2 mutation in pancreatic beta cells alone is thus sufficient to recapitulate the neonatal diabetes observed in humans. beta-V59M islets also displayed a reduced percentage of beta cells, abnormal morphology, lower insulin content, and decreased expression of Kir6.2, SUR1, and insulin mRNA. All these changes are expected to contribute to the diabetes of beta-V59M mice. Their cause requires further investigation.