A New Index of Financial Conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the FCI to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Prevalence of chronic conditions – Stroke

IPH has estimated and forecast clinical diagnosis rates of stroke among adults for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. In the Republic of Ireland, the data are based on the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN) 2007. The data describe the number of adults who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed stroke in the previous 12 months. Data are available by age and sex for each Local Health Office of the Health Service Executive (HSE) in the Republic of Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the data are based on the Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06. The data describe the number of adults who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed stroke at any time in the past. Data are available by age and sex for each Local Government District in Northern Ireland. Clinical diagnosis rates in the Republic of Ireland relate to the previous 12 months and are not directly comparable with clinical diagnosis rates in Northern Ireland which relate to anytime in the past. The IPH estimated prevalence per cents may be marginally different to estimated prevalence per cents taken directly from the reference study. There are two reasons for this: 1) The IPH prevalence estimates relate to 2010 while the reference studies relate to earlier years (Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06, Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition 2007, Understanding Society 2009). Although we assume that the risk of the condition in the risk groups do not change over time, the distribution of the number of people in the risk groups in the population changes over time (eg the population ages).  This new distribution of the risk groups in the population means that the risk of the condition is weighted differently to the reference study and this results in a different overall prevalence estimate. 2) The IPH prevalence estimates are based on a statistical model of the reference study. The model includes a number of explanatory variables to predict the risk of the condition. Therefore the model does not include records from the reference study that are missing data on these explanatory variables. A prevalence estimate for a condition taken directly from the reference study would include these records.

Prevalence of chronic conditions – Diabetes

IPH has estimated and forecast clinical diagnosis rates of diabetes among adults for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. In the Republic of Ireland, the data are based on the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN) 2007. The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed diabetes in the previous 12 months (annual clinical diagnosis).  Data are available by age and sex for each Local Health Office of the Health Service Executive (HSE) in the Republic of Ireland. Note that an adjustment was made for diabetes medication use recorded in the SLÁN physical examination sub-group of 45+ year olds. In Northern Ireland, the data is based on the Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06 . The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed diabetes at any time in the past (lifetime clinical diagnosis). Data are available by age and sex for each Local Government District in Northern Ireland.Clinical diagnosis rates in the Republic of Ireland relate to the previous 12 months and are not directly comparable with clinical diagnosis rates in Northern Ireland which relate to anytime in the past. Differences between IPH estimates and reference study estimates: The IPH estimated prevalence per cents may be marginally different to estimated prevalence per cents taken directly from the reference study. There are two reasons for this: 1) The IPH prevalence estimates relate to 2010 while the reference studies relate to earlier years (Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06, Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition 2007, Understanding Society 2009). Although we assume that the risk of the condition in the risk groups do not change over time, the distribution of the number of people in the risk groups in the population changes over time (eg the population ages).  This new distribution of the risk groups in the population means that the risk of the condition is weighted differently to the reference study and this results in a different overall prevalence estimate. 2) The IPH prevalence estimates are based on a statistical model of the reference study. The model includes a number of explanatory variables to predict the risk of the condition. Therefore the model does not include records from the reference study that are missing data on these explanatory variables. A prevalence estimate for a condition taken directly from the reference study would include these records.  

Prevalence of chronic conditions – Hypertension

IPH has estimated and forecast clinical diagnosis rates of hypertension among adults for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. In the Republic of Ireland, the data are based on the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN) 2007. The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed hypertension in the previous 12 months (annual clinical diagnosis). Data are available by age and sex for each Local Health Office of the Health Service Executive (HSE) in the Republic of Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the data is based on the Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06. The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor/nurse-diagnosed hypertension at any time in the past (lifetime clinical diagnosis). Data are available by age and sex for each Local Government District in Northern Ireland. Clinical diagnosis rates in the Republic of Ireland relate to the previous 12 months and are not directly comparable with clinical diagnosis rates in Northern Ireland which relate to anytime in the past.   The IPH estimated prevalence per cents may be marginally different to estimated prevalence per cents taken directly from the reference study. There are two reasons for this: 1) The IPH prevalence estimates relate to 2010 while the reference studies relate to earlier years (Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06, Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition 2007, Understanding Society 2009). Although we assume that the risk of the condition in the risk groups do not change over time, the distribution of the number of people in the risk groups in the population changes over time (eg the population ages).  This new distribution of the risk groups in the population means that the risk of the condition is weighted differently to the reference study and this results in a different overall prevalence estimate. 2) The IPH prevalence estimates are based on a statistical model of the reference study. The model includes a number of explanatory variables to predict the risk of the condition. Therefore the model does not include records from the reference study that are missing data on these explanatory variables. A prevalence estimate for a condition taken directly from the reference study would include these records.

Prevalence of chronic conditions – Coronary Heart Disease

IPH has estimated and forecast clinical diagnosis rates of CHD (heart attack and/or angina) among adults for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. In the Republic of Ireland, the data are based on the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN) 2007 . The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed heart attack and/or angina in the previous 12 months (annual clinical diagnosis). Data is available by age and sex for each Local Health Office of the Health Service Executive (HSE) in the Republic of Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the data are based on the Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06 . The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed heart attack and/or angina at any time in the past (lifetime clinical diagnosis). Data are available by age and sex for each Local Government District in Northern Ireland. Clinical diagnosis rates in the Republic of Ireland relate to the previous 12 months and are not directly comparable with clinical diagnosis rates in Northern Ireland which relate to anytime in the past. The IPH estimated prevalence per cents may be marginally different to estimated prevalence per cents taken directly from the reference study. There are two reasons for this: 1) The IPH prevalence estimates relate to 2010 while the reference studies relate to earlier years (Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06, Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition 2007, Understanding Society 2009). Although we assume that the risk of the condition in the risk groups do not change over time, the distribution of the number of people in the risk groups in the population changes over time (eg the population ages).  This new distribution of the risk groups in the population means that the risk of the condition is weighted differently to the reference study and this results in a different overall prevalence estimate. 2) The IPH prevalence estimates are based on a statistical model of the reference study. The model includes a number of explanatory variables to predict the risk of the condition. Therefore the model does not include records from the reference study that are missing data on these explanatory variables. A prevalence estimate for a condition taken directly from the reference study would include these records.

Prevalence of chronic conditions – Chronic Airflow Obstruction

IPH has estimated and forecast clinical diagnosis rates of CAO among adults for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. In the Republic of Ireland, the data are based on the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN) 2007. The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed chronic bronchitis, chronic obstructive lung (pulmonary) disease, or emphysema in the previous 12 months (annual clinical diagnosis). Data is available by age and sex for each Local Health Office of the Health Service Executive (HSE) in the Republic of Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the data are based on the Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06. The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed COPD or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease eg chronic bronchitis / emphysema or both disorders at any time in the past (lifetime clinical diagnosis). Data are available by age and sex for each Local Government District in Northern Ireland. Clinical diagnosis rates in the Republic of Ireland relate to the previous 12 months and are not directly comparable with clinical diagnosis rates in Northern Ireland which relate to anytime in the past.   The IPH estimated prevalence per cents may be marginally different to estimated prevalence per cents taken directly from the reference study. There are two reasons for this: 1) The IPH prevalence estimates relate to 2010 while the reference studies relate to earlier years (Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06, Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition 2007, Understanding Society 2009). Although we assume that the risk of the condition in the risk groups do not change over time, the distribution of the number of people in the risk groups in the population changes over time (eg the population ages).  This new distribution of the risk groups in the population means that the risk of the condition is weighted differently to the reference study and this results in a different overall prevalence estimate. 2) The IPH prevalence estimates are based on a statistical model of the reference study. The model includes a number of explanatory variables to predict the risk of the condition. Therefore the model does not include records from the reference study that are missing data on these explanatory variables. A prevalence estimate for a condition taken directly from the reference study would include these records.

Prevalence of chronic conditions – Musculoskeletal Conditions

IPH has estimated and forecast the number of adults with MSCs for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. In the Republic of Ireland, the data are based on the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN) 2007 . The data describe the number of people who report that they have experienced doctor-diagnosed MSC in the previous 12 months:     Lower back pain or any other chronic back condition     Rheumatoid arthritis (inflammation of the joints)     Osteoarthritis (arthrosis, joint degradation) Data are  available by age and sex for each Local Health Office of the Health Service Executive (HSE) in the Republic of Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the data are based on the Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06 and Understanding Society 2009. The data describe the number of adults who:     Have ever consulted a doctor about back pain     Are currently receiving treatment for musculoskeletal problems (such as arthritis, rheumatism)     Have ever been told by a doctor or other health professional that they had have arthritis? Data are available by age and sex for each Local Government District in Northern Ireland. There are significant differences between the definitions used in RoI and NI and North-South comparisons are not valid. The RoI measures relate to specific MSCs in the previous 12 months that had been diagnosed by a doctor. The NI measures relate to doctor-consultations at any time in the past, doctor-diagnosis at any time in the past and current treatment. The IPH estimated prevalence per cents may be marginally different to estimated prevalence per cents taken directly from the reference study. There are two reasons for this: 1) The IPH prevalence estimates relate to 2010 while the reference studies relate to earlier years (Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06, Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition 2007, Understanding Society 2009). Although we assume that the risk of the condition in the risk groups do not change over time, the distribution of the number of people in the risk groups in the population changes over time (eg the population ages).  This new distribution of the risk groups in the population means that the risk of the condition is weighted differently to the reference study and this results in a different overall prevalence estimate. 2) The IPH prevalence estimates are based on a statistical model of the reference study. The model includes a number of explanatory variables to predict the risk of the condition. Therefore the model does not include records from the reference study that are missing data on these explanatory variables. A prevalence estimate for a condition taken directly from the reference study would include these records.

Speech by Mr Micheál Martin TD at Launch of Pre-Registration Nursing Degree Programme

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I am very pleased that you were all able to accept my invitation to join me here today on this landmark occasion for nursing education. It is fitting that all of the key stakeholders from the health and education sectors should be so well represented at the launch of an historic new development. Rapid and unpredictable change throughout society has been the hallmark of the twenty-first century, and healthcare is no exception. Regardless of what change occurs, no one doubts that nursing is intrinsic to the health of this nation. However, significant changes in nurse education are now needed if the profession is to deliver on its social mandate to promote people´s health by providing excellent and sensitive care. As science, technology and the demands of the public for sophisticated and responsive health care become increasingly complex, it is essential that the foundation of nursing education is redesigned. Pre-registration nursing education has already undergone radical change over the past eight years, during which time it has moved from an apprenticeship model of education and training to a diploma based programme firmly rooted in higher education. The Secretary General of my Department, Michael Kelly, played a leading role in bringing about this transformation, which has greatly enhanced the way students are prepared for entry to the nursing profession. The benefits of the revised model of education are clearly evident from the quality of the nurses graduating from the diploma programme. The Commission on Nursing examined the whole area of nursing education, and set out a very convincing case for educating nursing students to degree level. It argued that nurses of the future would be required to possess increased flexibility and the ability to work autonomously. A degree programme would provide nurses with a theoretical underpinning that would enable them to develop their clinical skills to a greater extent and to respond to future challenges in health care, for the benefit of patients and clients of the health services. The Commission has provided a solid framework for the professional development of nurses and midwives, including a process that is already underway for the creation of clinical nurse specialist and advanced nurse practitioner posts. This process will facilitate the transfer of skills across divisions of nursing. In this scenario, it is clearly desirable that the future benchmark qualification for registration as a nurse should be a degree in nursing studies. A Nursing Education Forum was established in early 1999 to prepare a strategic framework for the implementation of a nursing degree programme. When launching the Forum´s report last January, I indicated that the Government had agreed in principle to the introduction of the proposed degree programme next year. At the time two substantial outstanding issues had yet to be resolved, namely the basis on which nurse teachers would transfer from the health sector to the education sector and the amount of capital and revenue funding required to operate the degree programme. My Department has brokered agreements between the Nursing Alliance and the Higher Education Institutions for the assimilation of nurse teachers as lecturers into their affiliated institutions. The terms of these agreements have been accepted by all four nursing unions following a ballot of their nurse teacher members. I would like to pay particular tribute to all nurse teachers who have contributed to shaping the position, relevance and visibility of nursing through leadership, which embodies scholarship and excellence in the profession of nursing itself. In response to a recommendation of the Nursing Education Forum, I established an Inter-Departmental Steering Committee, chaired by Bernard Carey of my Department, to consider all the funding and policy issues. This Steering Committee includes representatives of the Department of Finance and the Department of Education and Science as well as the Higher Education Authority. The Steering Committee has been engaged in intensive negotiations with representatives of the Conference of Heads of Irish Universities and the Institutes of Technology in relation to their capital and revenue funding requirements. These negotiations were successfully concluded within the past few weeks. The satisfactory resolution of the industrial relations and funding issues cleared the way for me to go to the Government with concrete proposals for the implementation of degree level education for nursing students. I am delighted to announce here today that the Government has approved all of my proposals, and that a four-year undergraduate pre-registration nursing degree programme will be implemented on a nation-wide basis at the start of the next academic year, 2002/2003. The Government has approved the provision of capital funding totalling £176 million pounds for a major building and equipment programme to facilitate the full integration of nursing students into the higher education sector. This programme is due to be completed by September 2004, and will ensure that nursing students are accommodated in purpose built schools of nursing studies with state of the art clinical skills and human science laboratories at thirteen higher education sites throughout the country. The Government has also agreed to make available the substantial additional revenue funding required to support the nursing degree programme. By 2006, the full year cost of operating the programme will rise to some £43 million pounds. The scale of this investment in pre-registration nursing education is enormous by any yardstick. It demonstrates the firm commitment of myself and my Government colleagues to the full implementation of the recommendations of the Commission on Nursing, of which the introduction of pre-registration degree level education is arguably the most important. This historic decision, and it is truly historic, will finally put the education of nurses on a par with the education of other health care professionals. The nursing profession has long been striving for parity, and my own involvement in the achievement of it is a matter of deep personal satisfaction to me. I am also pleased to announce that the Government has approved my plans for increasing the number of nursing training places to coincide with the implementation of the degree programme next year. Ninety-three additional places in mental handicap and psychiatric nursing will be created at Athlone, Letterkenny, Tralee and Waterford Institutes of Technology. This will yield 392 extra places over the four years of the degree programme. A total of 1,640 places annually on the new degree programme will thus be available. This is an all-time record, and maintaining the annual student intake at this level for the foreseeable future is a key element of my overall strategy for ensuring that we produce sufficient “home-grown” nurses for our health services. I am aware that the Nursing Alliance were anxious that some funding would be provided for the further academic career development of nurse teachers who transfer to one of the six Universities that will be involved in the delivery of the degree programme. I am happy to confirm that up to £300,000 in total per year will be available for this purpose over the first four years of the degree programme. In line with a recommendation of the Commission on Nursing, my Department will have responsibility for the administration of the nursing degree budget until the programme has been bedded down in the higher education sector. A primary concern will be to ensure that the substantial capital and revenue funding involved is ring-fenced for nursing studies. It is intended that responsibility for the budget will be transferred to the Department of Education and Science after the first cohort of nursing degree students have graduated in 2006. In the context of today´s launch, it is relevant to refer to a special initiative that I introduced last year to assist registered nurses wishing to undertake part-time nursing degree courses. Under this initiative, nurses are entitled to have their course fees paid by their employers in return for a commitment to continue working in the public health service for a period following completion of the course. This initiative has proved extremely popular with large numbers of nurses availing of it. I want to confirm here today that the free fees initiative will continue in operation until 2005, at a total cost of at least £15 million pounds. I am giving this commitment in order to assure this year´s intake of nursing students to the final diploma programmes that fee support for a part-time nursing degree course will be available to them when they graduate in three years time. The focus of today´s celebration is rightly on the landmark Government decision to implement the nursing degree programme next year. As Minister for Health and Children, and as a former Minister for Education, I also have a particular interest in the educational opportunities available to other health service workers to upgrade their skills. I am pleased to announce that the Government has approved my proposals for the introduction of a sponsorship scheme for suitable, experienced health care assistants who wish to become nurses. This new scheme will commence next year and will be administered by the health boards. Successful applicants will be allowed to retain their existing salaries throughout the four years of the degree programme in return for a commitment to work as nurses for their health service employer for a period of five years following registration. Up to forty sponsorships will be available annually. The new scheme will enable suitable applicants to undertake nursing education and training without suffering financial hardship. The greatest advantage of the scheme will be the retention by the public health service of staff who are supported under it, since they will have had practical experience of working in the service and their own personal commitment to upgrading their skills will be informed by that experience. I am confident that the sponsorship scheme will be warmly welcomed by health service unions representing care assistants as providing an exciting new career development path for their members. Education and health are now the two pillars upon which the profession of nursing rests. We must continue to build bridges, even tunnels where needed to strengthen this partnership. We must all understand partnerships donâ?Tt just happen they are designed and must be worked at. The changes outlined here today are powerful incentives for those in healthcare agencies, academic institutions and regulatory bodies to design revolutionary programmes capable of shaping a critical mass of excellent practitioners. You have an opportunity, greater perhaps than has been granted to any other generation in history to make certain those changes are for the good. Ultimately changes that will make the country a healthier and more equitable place to live. The challenge relates to building a seamless preparatory programme which equally respects both education and practise as an indivisible duo whilst ensuring that high tech does not replace the human touch. This is a special day in the history of the development of the Irish nursing profession, and I would like to thank everybody for their contribution. I want to express my particular appreciation of two people who by this stage are well known to all of you – Bernard Carey of my Department and Siobhán O´Halloran of the National Implementation Committee. Bernard and Siobhán have devoted considerable time and energy to the project on my behalf over the past fourteen months or so. That we are here today celebrating the launch of degree level education is due in no small part to their successful execution of the mandate that I gave them. We live in a rapidly changing world, one in which nursing can no longer rely on systems of the past to guide it through the new millennium. In terms of contemporary healthcare, nursing is no longer just a reciprocal kindness but rather a highly complex set of professional behaviours, which require serious educational investment. Pre-registration nurse education will always need development and redesign to ensure our health care system meets the demands of modern society. Nothing is finite. Today more than ever the health system is dependent on the resourcefulness of nursing. I have no doubt that the new educational landscape painted will ensure that nurses of the future will be increasingly innovative, independent and in demand. The unmistakable message from my Department is that nursing really matters. Thank you.

Five Years Of Denosumab Treatment In Women With Postmenopausal Osteoporosis: Preliminary Results From The Freedom Extension Study

Aims: The pivotal FREEDOM study evaluated the effi cacy and safety of 3 years' denosumab treatment in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO).1 Since osteoporosis is a chronic condition requiring long-term therapy, FREEDOM was extended to further elucidate the safety and effi cacy of long-term denosumab administration. We present data from the fi rst 2 years of this extension, representing up to 5 years' continuous exposure to denosumab.Methods: Patients who completed FREEDOM were eligible for the extension. Women continued to receive (long-term group), or started after 3 years' placebo (cross-over group), denosumab 60 mg sc every 6 months and daily calcium and vitamin D. These data refl ect 5 years' (long-term) or 2 years' (cross-over) continuous denosumab treatment. Effi cacy measures include changes in BMD from extension study baseline and bone turnover markers (BTM). P-values are descriptive.Results: Of the 83.0% of subjects who completed FREEDOM, 70.2% (N = 4550) agreed to participate in the extension (long-term: 2343; cross-over: 2207). In the long-term group, there were further signifi cant gains (P < 0.0001) in BMD in years 4 and 5: 1.9% and 1.7% at the lumbar spine to a total of 13.7% from FREEDOM baseline and 0.7% and 0.6% at the total hip to a total of 7.0%. During their fi rst 2 years' denosumab treatment, women in the cross-over group had signifi cant improvements in lumbar spine (7.9%) and total hip BMD (4.1%) (P < 0.0001). Serum C-telopeptide (CTX) was rapidly reduced following denosumab dosing in both groups, with the characteristic attenuation of CTX reduction observed at the end of the dosing interval. A low incidence of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures was reported for both groups. The denosumab safety profi le did not change over time.Conclusions: Denosumab treatment for up to 5 years in women with PMO remains well tolerated, maintains reduction of BTMs and continues to significantly increase BMD.Reference1. Cummings. NEJM 2009;361:756.

Efficiency of flexible derotator in walking cerebral palsy children

Introduction The flexible derotator is one of the therapeutic resources used to combat primary and secondary abnormalities in walking cerebral palsy children. It was developed to reduce abnormal femoral and tibial torsions and lessen the latter's negative functional impact. Objective To determine the effect of wearing a flexible derotator on anatomic and functional parameters in walking cerebral palsy children. Methods We performed a retrospective study of walking cerebral palsy children by gathering data on bone-related parameters (femoral and tibial torsion) and functional parameters (distance and speed gait, and the energy expenditure index (EEI)). Fifteen walking cerebral palsy children were treated with the flexible derotator for one year and 15 untreated walking cerebral palsy children were included as controls. The two groups were compared in terms of the various parameters' change over time between the initial examination (the last examination prior to the start of the study or prior to use of the flexible derotator) and the final examination (after one year of follow-up). Results Right femoral anteversion and right and left external tibial torsion improved. There was a significant increase in distance and speed gait and a decrease in the EEI in walking cerebral palsy children. Conclusion Our retrospective study revealed a significant improvement in functional parameters in children with cerebral palsy, as a result of wearing the flexible derotator for at least 6 hours a day for a year. Bone parameters only improved slightly. Use of the flexible derotator could improve these children's quality of life.

Fecundity of ant queens in relation to their age and the mode of colony founding

The change over time in the fecundity and weight of queens was investigated in three monogynous, independent colony founding species,Lasius niger, Camponotus ligniperda andC. herculaneus, and two polygynous dependent colony founding species,Plagiolepis pygmaea andIridomyrmex humilis. Queens of the three species founding independently exhibited a similar pattern with a significant loss of weight between mating and the emergence of the first workers. In contrast, weights of queens of the species employing dependent colony founding remained more stable. Fecundity of queens founding independently increased slowly with time whereas fecundity of queens founding dependently reached the maximum level some weeks after the beginning of the first reproductive season. These results are discussed in relation to some differences in the life history (e.g., life-span) between queens utilizing independent and dependent colony founding.

Admissions of patients with alcohol intoxication in the Emergency Department: a growing phenomenon.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: To investigate the change over time in the number of ED admissions with positive blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and to evaluate predictors of BAC level. METHODS: We conducted a single site retrospective study at the ED of a tertiary referral hospital (western part of Switzerland) and obtained all the BAC performed from 2002 to 2011. We determined the proportion of ED admissions with positive BAC (number of positive BAC/number of admissions). Regression models assessed trends in the proportion of admissions with positive BAC and the predictors of BAC level among patients with positive BAC. RESULTS: A total of 319,489 admissions were recorded and 20,021 BAC tests were performed, of which 14,359 were positive, divided 34.5% female and 65.5% male. The mean (SD) age was 41.7(16.8), and the mean BAC was 2.12(1.04) permille (g of ethanol/liter of blood). An increase in the number of positive BAC was observed, from 756 in 2002 to 1,819 in 2011. The total number of admissions also increased but less: 1.2 versus 2.4 times more admissions with positive BAC. Being male was independently associated with a higher (+0.19 permille) BAC, as was each passing year (+0.03). A significant quadratic association with age indicated a maximum BAC at age 53. CONCLUSION: We observed an increase in the percentage of admissions with positive BAC that was not limited to younger individuals. Given the potential consequences of alcohol intoxication, and the large burden imposed on ED teams, communities should be encouraged to take measures aimed at reducing alcohol intoxication.

Ecological Footprint Inequality: A methodological review and some results

Scarcities of environmental services are no longer merely a remote hypothesis. Consequently, analysis of their inequalities between nations becomes of paramount importance for the achievement of sustainability in terms either of international policy, or of Universalist ethical principles of equity. This paper aims, on the one hand, at revising methodological aspects of the inequality measurement of certain environmental data and, on the other, at extending the scarce empirical evidence relating to the international distribution of Ecological Footprint (EF), by using a longer EF time series. Most of the techniques currently important in the literature are revised and then tested on EF data with interesting results. We look in depth at Lorenz dominance analyses and consider the underlying properties of different inequality indices. Those indices which fit best with environmental inequality measurements are CV2 and GE(2) because of their neutrality property, however a trade-off may occur when subgroup decompositions are performed. A weighting factor decomposition method is proposed in order to isolate weighting factor changes in inequality growth rates. Finally, the only non-ambiguous way of decomposing inequality by source is the natural decomposition of CV2, which additionally allows the interpretation of marginal term contributions. Empirically, this paper contributes to the environmental inequality measurement of EF: this inequality has been quite stable and its change over time is due to per capita vector changes rather than population changes. Almost the entirety of the EF inequality is explainable by differences in the means between the countries of the World Bank group. This finding suggests that international environmental agreements should be attempted on a regional basis in an attempt to achieve greater consensus between the parties involved. Additionally, source decomposition warns of the dangers of confining CO2 emissions reduction to crop-based energies because of the implications for basic needs satisfaction.