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Améliorations et optimisation globale de la méthode des analogues pour la prévision statistique des précipitations. Développement d'un outil de prévision et application opérationnelle au bassin du Rhône à l'amont du Léman.

Le bassin du Rhône à l'amont du Léman peut être sujet à de fortes précipitations en mesure de provoquer des crues significatives. L'objectif du projet MINERVE dans lequel s'inscrit le présent travail consiste à fournir des outils pour la prévision et la gestion des crues par des actions préventives sur les aménagements hydroélectriques à accumulation. Pour satisfaire ce dernier, il est nécessaire de prévoir au mieux les cumuls de précipitations pour les jours suivants. Ceci est actuellement effectué par le modèle numérique de prévision de MétéoSuisse ; mais, en raison des grandes incertitudes liées à la quantification des événements extrêmes, il a été décidé qu'une approche parallèle de nature statistique pourrait compléter l'information disponible. Ainsi, nous avons adapté la méthode des analogues, qui est une technique de prévision statistique des précipitations, au contexte alpin du bassin d'étude. Pour ce faire, plusieurs paramétrisations de la méthode ont été documentées et calibrées. Afin de prendre en main la méthode, nous avons effectué de multiples analyses paramétriques sur les variables synoptiques, mais également sur la constitution de groupements pluviométriques. Une partie conséquente de cette étude a été consacrée à la programmation d'un logiciel de prévision automatique par la méthode des analogues, ainsi qu'à un outil de visualisation des résultats sous forme de cartes et graphiques. Ce logiciel, nommé Atmoswing, permet d'implémenter un grand nombre de méthodes différentes de prévision par analogie. L'outil est opérationnel depuis mi-2011 et nous a permis de confirmer l'intérêt de la prévision par analogie. La méthode étant ici appliquée à un nouveau contexte, un grand nombre de variables synoptiques ont été évaluées. Nous avons alors confirmé l'intérêt des deux niveaux d'analogie sur la circulation atmosphérique et sur le flux d'humidité, tout en apportant des améliorations à celles-ci. Il en résulte des paramétrisations présentant des scores de performance supérieurs aux méthodes de référence considérées. Nous avons également évalué d'autres améliorations, comme l'introduction d'une fenêtre temporelle glissante afin de rechercher de meilleures analogies synoptiques à d'autres heures de la journée, ce qui s'est avéré intéressant, tout comme une prévision infrajournalière à pas de temps de 6 h. Finalement, nous avons introduit une technique d'optimisation globale, les algorithmes génétiques, capable de calibrer la méthode des analogues en considérant tous les paramètres des différents niveaux d'analogie de manière conjointe. Avec cette technique, nous pouvons nous approcher objectivement d'une paramétrisation optimale. Le choix des niveaux atmosphériques et des fenêtres temporelles et spatiales étant automatisé, cette technique peut engendrer un gain de temps, même si elle est relativement exigeante en calculs. Nous avons ainsi pu améliorer la méthode des analogues, et y ajouter de nouveaux degrés de liberté, notamment des fenêtres spatiales et des pondérations différenciées selon les niveaux atmosphériques retenus.

Field optimisation of MosquiTRAP sampling for monitoring Aedes aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera: Culicidae)

A sticky trap designed to capture gravid Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti mosquitoes, MosquiTRAP, has been evaluated for monitoring this species in Brazil. However, the effects of trap densities on the capture rate of Ae. aegypti females and the sensitivity of vector detection are still unknown. After a preliminary study has identified areas of high and low female mosquito abundance, a set of experiments was conducted in four neighbourhoods of Belo Horizonte (state of Minas Gerais, Brazil) using densities of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 64 traps per block. Trap sensitivity (positive MosquiTRAP index) increased significantly when 1-8 MosquiTRAPs were installed per block in both high and low abundance areas. A strong fit was obtained for the total number of mosquitoes captured with increasing trap densities through a non-linear function (Box-Lucas) (r² = 0,994), which likely exhibits saturation towards an equilibrium level. The capacity of the Mean Female Aedes Index to distinguish between areas of high and low Ae. aegypti abundance was also investigated; the achieved differentiation was shown to be dependent on the MosquiTRAP density.

Long time behaviour of diffusing particles in constrained geometries; application to chromatin motion

Inspired by experiments that use single-particle tracking to measure the regions of confinement of selected chromosomal regions within cell nuclei, we have developed an analytical approach that takes into account various possible positions and shapes of the confinement regions. We show, in particular, that confinement of a particle into a subregion that is entirely enclosed within a spherical volume can lead to a higher limit of the mean radial square displacement value than the one associated with a particle that can explore the entire spherical volume. Finally, we apply the theory to analyse the motion of extrachromosomal chromatin rings within nuclei of living yeast.

Optimisation of an asymmetric polymerase chain reaction assay for the amplification of single-stranded DNA from Wuchereria bancrofti for electrochemical detection

Single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) is a prerequisite for electrochemical sensor-based detection of parasite DNA and other diagnostic applications. To achieve this detection, an asymmetric polymerase chain reaction method was optimised. This method facilitates amplification of ssDNA from the human lymphatic filarial parasite Wuchereria bancrofti. This procedure produced ssDNA fragments of 188 bp in a single step when primer pairs (forward and reverse) were used at a 100:1 molar ratio in the presence of double-stranded template DNA. The ssDNA thus produced was suitable for immobilisation as probe onto the surface of an Indium tin oxide electrode and hybridisation in a system for sequence-specific electrochemical detection of W. bancrofti. The hybridisation of the ssDNA probe and target ssDNA led to considerable decreases in both the anodic and the cathodic currents of the system's redox couple compared with the unhybridised DNA and could be detected via cyclic voltammetry. This method is reproducible and avoids many of the difficulties encountered by conventional methods of filarial parasite DNA detection; thus, it has potential in xenomonitoring.

An axiomatic characterization of the strong constrained egalitarian solution

In this paper we axiomatize the strong constrained egalitarian solution (Dutta and Ray, 1991) over the class of weak superadditive games using constrained egalitarianism, order-consistency, and converse order-consistency. JEL classification: C71, C78. Keywords: Cooperative TU-game, strong constrained egalitarian solution, axiomatization.

Optimisation of a quantitative polymerase chain reaction-based strategy for the detection and quantification of human herpesvirus 6 DNA in patients undergoing allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) may cause severe complications after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Monitoring this virus and providing precise, rapid and early diagnosis of related clinical diseases, constitute essential measures to improve outcomes. A prospective survey on the incidence and clinical features of HHV-6 infections after HSCT has not yet been conducted in Brazilian patients and the impact of this infection on HSCT outcome remains unclear. A rapid test based on real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has been optimised to screen and quantify clinical samples for HHV-6. The detection step was based on reaction with TaqMan® hydrolysis probes. A set of previously described primers and probes have been tested to evaluate efficiency, sensitivity and reproducibility. The target efficiency range was 91.4% with linearity ranging from 10-106 copies/reaction and a limit of detection of five copies/reaction or 250 copies/mL of plasma. The qPCR assay developed in the present study was simple, rapid and sensitive, allowing the detection of a wide range of HHV-6 loads. In conclusion, this test may be useful as a practical tool to help elucidate the clinical relevance of HHV-6 infection and reactivation in different scenarios and to determine the need for surveillance.

Optimisation of the formation and distribution of protoporphyrin IX in the urothelium: an in vitro approach.

PURPOSE: To optimize conditions for photodynamic detection (PDD) and photodynamic therapy (PDT) of bladder carcinoma, urothelial accumulation of protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) and conditions leading to cell photodestruction were studied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Porcine and human bladder mucosae were superfused with derivatives of 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA). PpIX accumulation and distribution across the mucosa was studied by microspectrofluorometry. Cell viability and structural integrity were assessed by using vital dyes and microscopy. RESULTS: ALA esters, especially hexyl-ALA, accelerated and regularized urothelial PpIX accumulation and allowed for necrosis upon illumination. CONCLUSIONS: hexyl-ALA used at micromolar concentrations is the most efficient PpIX precursor for PDD and PDT.

Buscando uma chance para o filho vir a ser: a experiência do pai na UTI

O presente estudo objetiva desvelar a experiência do pai cujo filho encontra-se em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Pediátrica, utilizando a pesquisa qualitativa, sob a perspectiva fenomenológica de Martin Heidegger, para analisar os discursos obtidos por entrevistas. Esta análise permitiu identificar três temas que configuraram aquela vivência em: Transformando seu medo em esperança, Percebendo-se como tomador de decisões e Agindo em benefício do filho. Estes temas desocultaram o fenômeno BUSCANDO UMA CHANCE PARA O FILHO VIR A SER, revelando que, para isso, o pai expõe o filho aos riscos e tratamentos que forem necessários, indicando que suas ações e a constante superação de seus sentimentos objetivam oferecer ao filhouma oportunidade para viver com plenitude.

Ionotropic and metabotropic mechanisms in chemoreception: 'chance or design'?

Chemosensory receptors convert an enormous diversity of chemical signals from the external world into a common language of electrical activity in the brain. Mammals and insects use several families of transmembrane receptor proteins to recognize distinct classes of volatile and non-volatile chemicals that are produced by conspecifics or other environmental sources. A comparison of the signalling mechanisms of mammalian and insect receptors has revealed an unexpected functional distinction: mammals rely almost exclusively on metabotropic ligand-binding receptors, which use second messenger signalling cascades to indirectly activate ion channels, whereas insects use ionotropic receptors, which are gated directly by chemical stimuli, thereby leading to neuronal depolarization. In this review, we consider possible reasons for this dichotomy, taking into account biophysical, cell biological, ecological and evolutionary influences on how information is extracted from chemosensory cues by these animal classes.

Tree-based message diffusion for managing replicated data in unreliable and resource-constrained peer-to-peer environment

Abstract This thesis proposes a set of adaptive broadcast solutions and an adaptive data replication solution to support the deployment of P2P applications. P2P applications are an emerging type of distributed applications that are running on top of P2P networks. Typical P2P applications are video streaming, file sharing, etc. While interesting because they are fully distributed, P2P applications suffer from several deployment problems, due to the nature of the environment on which they perform. Indeed, defining an application on top of a P2P network often means defining an application where peers contribute resources in exchange for their ability to use the P2P application. For example, in P2P file sharing application, while the user is downloading some file, the P2P application is in parallel serving that file to other users. Such peers could have limited hardware resources, e.g., CPU, bandwidth and memory or the end-user could decide to limit the resources it dedicates to the P2P application a priori. In addition, a P2P network is typically emerged into an unreliable environment, where communication links and processes are subject to message losses and crashes, respectively. To support P2P applications, this thesis proposes a set of services that address some underlying constraints related to the nature of P2P networks. The proposed services include a set of adaptive broadcast solutions and an adaptive data replication solution that can be used as the basis of several P2P applications. Our data replication solution permits to increase availability and to reduce the communication overhead. The broadcast solutions aim, at providing a communication substrate encapsulating one of the key communication paradigms used by P2P applications: broadcast. Our broadcast solutions typically aim at offering reliability and scalability to some upper layer, be it an end-to-end P2P application or another system-level layer, such as a data replication layer. Our contributions are organized in a protocol stack made of three layers. In each layer, we propose a set of adaptive protocols that address specific constraints imposed by the environment. Each protocol is evaluated through a set of simulations. The adaptiveness aspect of our solutions relies on the fact that they take into account the constraints of the underlying system in a proactive manner. To model these constraints, we define an environment approximation algorithm allowing us to obtain an approximated view about the system or part of it. This approximated view includes the topology and the components reliability expressed in probabilistic terms. To adapt to the underlying system constraints, the proposed broadcast solutions route messages through tree overlays permitting to maximize the broadcast reliability. Here, the broadcast reliability is expressed as a function of the selected paths reliability and of the use of available resources. These resources are modeled in terms of quotas of messages translating the receiving and sending capacities at each node. To allow a deployment in a large-scale system, we take into account the available memory at processes by limiting the view they have to maintain about the system. Using this partial view, we propose three scalable broadcast algorithms, which are based on a propagation overlay that tends to the global tree overlay and adapts to some constraints of the underlying system. At a higher level, this thesis also proposes a data replication solution that is adaptive both in terms of replica placement and in terms of request routing. At the routing level, this solution takes the unreliability of the environment into account, in order to maximize reliable delivery of requests. At the replica placement level, the dynamically changing origin and frequency of read/write requests are analyzed, in order to define a set of replica that minimizes communication cost.

Optimisation des doses en tomographie computérisée pédiatrique [Patient dose optimization in pediatric computerized tomography]

The development of CT applications might become a public health problem if no effort is made on the justification and the optimisation of the examinations. This paper presents some hints to assure that the risk-benefit compromise remains in favour of the patient, especially when one deals with the examinations of young patients. In this context a particular attention has to be made on the justification of the examination. When performing the acquisition one needs to optimise the extension of the volume investigated together with the number of acquisition sequences used. Finally, the use of automatic exposure systems, now available on all the units, and the use of the Diagnostic Reference Levels (DRL) should allow help radiologists to control the exposure of their patients.