Modelo de gestión de la red de distribución tercerizada segmento tiendas región central, en productos de consumo masivo, mediante datos de panel y simulación de Monte Carlo.

El proyecto de investigación parte de la dinámica del modelo de distribución tercerizada para una compañía de consumo masivo en Colombia, especializada en lácteos, que para este estudio se ha denominado “Lactosa”. Mediante datos de panel con estudio de caso, se construyen dos modelos de demanda por categoría de producto y distribuidor y mediante simulación estocástica, se identifican las variables relevantes que inciden sus estructuras de costos. El problema se modela a partir del estado de resultados por cada uno de los cuatro distribuidores analizados en la región central del país. Se analiza la estructura de costos y el comportamiento de ventas dado un margen (%) de distribución logístico, en función de las variables independientes relevantes, y referidas al negocio, al mercado y al entorno macroeconómico, descritas en el objeto de estudio. Entre otros hallazgos, se destacan brechas notorias en los costos de distribución y costos en la fuerza de ventas, pese a la homogeneidad de segmentos. Identifica generadores de valor y costos de mayor dispersión individual y sugiere uniones estratégicas de algunos grupos de distribuidores. La modelación con datos de panel, identifica las variables relevantes de gestión que inciden sobre el volumen de ventas por categoría y distribuidor, que focaliza los esfuerzos de la dirección. Se recomienda disminuir brechas y promover desde el productor estrategias focalizadas a la estandarización de procesos internos de los distribuidores; promover y replicar los modelos de análisis, sin pretender remplazar conocimiento de expertos. La construcción de escenarios fortalece de manera conjunta y segura la posición competitiva de la compañía y sus distribuidores.

Caracterización de los pacientes con catéter venoso central en un hospital universitario de cuarto nivel en Bogotá 2011 - 2013

Introducción: La utilización de catéteres venosos centrales (CVC) en la unidad de cuidado intensivo tiene gran importancia y amplio uso, son fuente de apoyo para la realización de varia actividades, pero con un gran potencial de complicaciones, por lo cual es fundamental conocer todos los aspectos relacionados con su uso, para así poder controlarlas. Métodos: Realizamos un estudio descriptivo de corte transversal con el objetivo de caracterizar los pacientes que requirieron CVC en el Hospital Universitario Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá durante junio de 2011 y mayo de 2013, describimos sus complicaciones asociadas tanto mecánicas como infecciosas, determinamos la tasa de bacteriemia, gérmenes causales y sus patrones de resistencia. Resultados: Se colocaron 2.286 CVC, el 52,9% en hombres, la media de edad fue 58,9 años. El total de las complicaciones ascienden al 4,5%, infecciosas 4,0% y mecánicas 0,6%. Dentro de las mecánicas solo encontramos inmediatas, no tardías. Con respecto a las infecciosas encontramos infección del sitio de inserción y bacteriemia. Se documentó una tasa de bacteriemia de 3,4 por 1000-días catéter en 2013, en disminución con respecto a 2012 (3,9) y 2011 (4,4). El microorganismo mas frecuentemente aislado fue el Staphylococcus Coagulasa Negativo con patrón usual de resistencia. Conclusión: Las complicaciones asociadas al uso de CVC en el HUFSFB, se presentan en menor frecuencia a las descritas internacionalmente; la tasa de bacteriemia asociada al CVC ha disminuido año tras año, posiblemente asociado al cuidado mas estricto posterior a la implementación de protocolos de manejo.

Brasil: elementos básicos para entender a la superpotencia sudamericana (Tema Central)

El presente estudio apunta a proveerle al lector con elementos para responder a un conjunto de preguntas relevantes para el diseño de una política bilateral Ecuador-Brasil coherente, entre otras: ¿Qué explica el surgimiento de Brasil como una potencia económica global?, ¿Cómo ese exitoso desarrollo económico –y social– ha influido en la política internacional de esta nación?, ¿Cómo podría afectar a Ecuador la creciente influencia internacional de Brasil en algunos de los organismos centrales para la toma de decisiones económicas mundiales, tales como el Grupo de los 20 (G-20), la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)? A continuación mostraré que esas preguntas no solo se relacionan entre sí, sino que, de hecho, tienen una respuesta común: la economía política del desarrollo brasileño tanto histórico como de los últimos veinte años explica su emergencia económica, los notables cambios en su política exterior en los noventa y la presente década, y los límites y oportunidades de la proyección internacional brasileña en el presente y el futuro más o menos inmediato.

Floodplain environmental change during the Younger Dryas and Holocene in Northwest Europe: Insights from the lower Kennet Valley, south central England

Many lowland rivers across northwest Europe exhibit broadly similar behavioural responses to glacial-interglacial transitions and landscape development. Difficulties exist in assessing these, largely because the evidence from many rivers remains limited and fragmentary. Here we address this issue in the context of the river Kennet, a tributary of the Thames, since c. 13,000 cal BP. Some similarities with other rivers are present, suggesting that regional climatic shifts are important controls. The Kennet differs from the regional pattern in a number of ways. The rate of response to sudden climatic change, particularly at the start of the Holocene and also mid-Holocene forest clearance, appears very high. This may reflect abrupt shifts between two catchment scale hydrological states arising from contemporary climates, land use change and geology. Stadial hydrology is dominated by nival regimes, with limited winter infiltration and high spring and summer runoff. Under an interglacial climate, infiltration is more significant. The probable absence of permafrost in the catchment means that a lag between the two states due to its gradual decay is unlikely. Palaeoecology, supported by radiocarbon dates, suggests that, at the very start of the Holocene, a dramatic episode of fine sediment deposition across most of the valley floor occurred, lasting 500-1000 years. A phase of peat accumulation followed as mineral sediment supply declined. A further shift led to tufa deposition, initially in small pools, then across the whole floodplain area, with the river flowing through channels cut in tufa and experiencing repeated avulsion. Major floods, leaving large gravel bars that still form positive relief features on the floodplain, followed mid-Holocene floodplain stability. Prehistoric deforestation is likely to be the cause of this flooding, inducing a major environmental shift with significantly increased surface runoff. Since the Bronze Age, predominantly fine sediments were deposited along the valley with apparently stable channels and vertical floodplain accretion associated with soil erosion and less catastrophic flooding. The Kennet demonstrates that, while a general pattern of river behaviour over time, within a region, may be identifiable, individual rivers are likely to diverge from this. Consequently, it is essential to understand catchment controls, particularly the relative significance of surface and subsurface hydrology. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Illustration of micro-scale advection using grid-pattern mini-lysimeters

Twenty-five small soil-filled perspex boxes arranged in a square, with dwarf sunflowers growing in them, were used to study micro-scale advection. Hydrological heterogeneity was introduced by applying two different amounts of irrigation water (low-irrigation, L, versus high-irrigation, H). The nine central boxes (4 H, 4 L and I bare box) were precision weighing lysimeters, yielding diurnal measurements of evaporation. After the onset of soil water stress, a large difference in latent heat flux (up to 4-fold) was observed between the lysimeters of the H and L treatments, mainly caused by large differences between H and L stomatal conductance values. This resulted in micro-advection, causing H soil-sunflower systems to evaporate well above equilibrium latent heat flux. The occurrence of micro-advective enhancement was reflected in large values of the Priestley-Taylor constant (often larger than 2.0) and generally negative values of sensible heat flux for the H treatment. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Postglacial vegetation, fire and climate dynamics at Central Chilean Patagonia (Lake Shaman, 44ºS)

A 19 cal ka BP pollen and charcoal record from Lake Shaman (44°S; 71°W, Chile) was analyzed to establish vegetation, fire and climate dynamics of the forest-steppe ecotone in Central Chilean Patagonia. Lake Shaman record indicates that the upper Río Cisnes valley was free of ice at around 19 cal ka BP. From this date and until 14.8 cal ka BP, a grass steppe with high proportions of shrubs associated to colder and drier conditions than present developed in this area. A continuous increase of Nothofagus accompanied by a decline in the steppe shrubs and sudden dominance of paludal over aquatic plants from 11 cal ka BP was associated to effective moisture increase but still under modern values. The replacement of the cold-dry grass-shrub steppe by a similar-than-present forest-steppe ecotone suggests an increase in temperature indicating the onset of the Holocene. At the same time, moderate fire activity suggested by the charcoal record could be related to major fuel availability as consequence of Nothofagus forest expansion. Between 8 and 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates the easternmost position of the forest-steppe ecotone suggesting the highest effective moisture with the establishment of seasonality between 5 and 3 cal ka BP. From 3 cal ka BP, the record indicates a retraction of the forest-steppe ecotone accompanied by a high pollen record variability and an increased fire activity. These late changes suggest decreased effective moisture associated with a high climatic variability. At regional and extra-regional scale, climatic changes at Lake Shaman's record are mostly associated to changes (latitudinal shifts and/or strengthening/weakening) of past Southern Westerlies that were previously recorded along Patagonia from the Lateglacial to the mid-Holocene. During the Late Holocene, a regional pattern characterized by high record variability emerges throughout Central Chilean Patagonia. This variability would be related to (1) low magnitude Southern Westerlies changes probably associated to ENSO and/or SAM or (2) the complex relationships between vegetation, fire and human occupations during the last 3 cal ka.

Relationship of dayside auroral precipitations to the open-closed separatrix and the pattern of convective flow

The implications are discussed of acceleration of magnetospheric ions by reflection off two magnetopause Alfvén waves, launched by the reconnection site into the inflow regions on both sides of the boundary. The effects of these waves on the ion populations, predicted using the model described by Lockwood et al. [1996], offer a physical interpretation of all the various widely used classifications of precipitation into the dayside ionosphere, namely, central plasma sheet, dayside boundary plasma sheet (BPS), void, low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), cusp, mantle, and polar cap. The location of the open-closed boundary and the form of the convection flow pattern are discussed in relation to the regions in which these various precipitations are typically found. Specifically, the model predicts that both the LLBL and the dayside BPS precipitations are on newly opened field lines and places the convection reversal within the LLBL, as is often observed. It is shown that this offers solutions to a number of paradoxes and problems that arise if the LLBL and BPS precipitations are thought of as being on closed field lines. This model is also used to make quantitive predictions of the longitudinal extent and latitudinal width of the cusp, as a function of solar wind density.

Beyond description to pattern: The contribution of Batesonian epistemology to critical realist research

This paper proposes a limitation to epistemological claims to theory building prevalent in critical realist research. While accepting the basic ontological and epistemological positions of the perspective as developed by Roy Bhaskar, it is argued that application in social science has relied on sociological concepts to explain the underlying generative mechanisms, and that in many cases this has been subject to the effects of an anthropocentric constraint. A novel contribution to critical realist research comes from the work and ideas of Gregory Bateson. This is in service of two central goals of critical realism, namely an abductive route to theory building and a commitment to interdisciplinarity. Five aspects of Bateson’s epistemology are introduced: (1) difference, (2) logical levels of abstraction, (3) recursive causal loops, (4) the logic of metaphor, and (5) Bateson’s theory of mind. The comparison between Bateson and Bhaskar’s ideas is seen as a form of double description, illustrative of the point being raised. The paper concludes with an appeal to critical realists to start exploring the writing and outlook of Bateson himself.

Multilevel analysis of hepatitis A infection in children and adolescents: a household survey in the Northeast and Central-west regions of Brazil

Background The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis A among children and adolescents from the Northeast and Midwest regions and the Federal District of Brazil and to identify individual-, household- and area-levels factors associated with hepatitis A infection. Methods This population-based survey was conducted in 20042005 and covered individuals aged between 5 and 19 years. A stratified multistage cluster sampling technique with probability proportional to size was used to select 1937 individuals aged between 5 and 19 years living in the Federal capital and in the State capitals of 12 states in the study regions. The sample was stratified according to age (59 and 10- to 19-years-old) and capital within each region. Individual- and household-level data were collected by interview at the home of the individual. Variables related to the area were retrieved from census tract data. The outcome was total antibodies to hepatitis A virus detected using commercial EIA. The age distribution of the susceptible population was estimated using a simple catalytic model. The associations between HAV infection and independent variables were assessed using the odds ratio and corrected for the random design effect and sampling weight. Multilevel analysis was performed by GLLAMM using Stata 9.2. Results The prevalence of hepatitis A infection in the 59 and 1019 age-group was 41.5 and 57.4, respectively for the Northeast, 32.3 and 56.0, respectively for the Midwest and 33.8 and 65.1 for the Federal District. A trend for the prevalence of HAV infection to increase according to age was detected in all sites. By the age of 5, 31.5 of the children had already been infected with HAV in the Northeast region compared with 20.0 in the other sites. By the age of 19 years, seropositivity was 70 in all areas. The curves of susceptible populations differed from one area to another. Multilevel modeling showed that variables relating to different levels of education were associated with HAV infection in all sites. Conclusion The study sites were classified as areas with intermediate endemicity area for hepatitis A infection. Differences in age trends of infection were detected among settings. This multilevel model allowed for quantification of contextual predictors of hepatitis A infection in urban areas.

Frontonasal Dysplasia, Severe Neuropsychological Delay, and Midline Central Nervous System Anomalies: Report of 10 Brazilian Male Patients

Here we report on 10 male patients with frontonasal dysplasia, cleft lip/palate, mental retardation, lack of language acquisition, and severe central nervous system involvement. Imaging studies disclosed absence of the corpus callosum, midline cysts, and an abnormally modeled cerebellum. Neuronal heterotopias were present in five patients and parieto-occipital encephalocele in three patients. We suggest that this pattern found exclusively in males, most likely represents a newly recognized syndrome distilled from the group of disorders subsumed under frontonasal dysplasia. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

East-West cranial differentiation in pre-Columbian populations from Central and North America

In a recent study we found that crania from South Amerindian populations on each side of the Andes differ significantly in terms of craniofacial shape. Western populations formed one morphological group, distributed continuously over 14,000 km from the Fuegian archipelago (southern Chile) to the Zulia region (northwestern Venezuela). Easterners formed another group, distributed from the Atlantic Coast up to the eastern foothills of the Andes. This differentiation is further supported by several genetic studies, and indirectly by ecological and archaeological studies. Some authors suggest that this dual biological pattern is consistent with differential rates of gene flow and genetic drift operating on both sides of the Cordillera due to historical reasons. Here we show that such East-West patterning is also observable in North America. We suggest that the ""ecological zones model"" proposed by Dixon, explaining the spread of the early Americans along a Pacific dispersal corridor, combined with the evolution of different population dynamics in both regions, is the most parsimonious mechanism to explain the observed patterns of within- and between-group craniofacial variability. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relation of genetic phylogeny and geographical distance of tick-borne encephalitis virus in central Europe

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is the most important arboviral agent causing disease of the central nervous system in central Europe. In this study, 61 TBEV E gene sequences derived from 48 isolates from the Czech Republic, and four isolates and nine TBEV strains detected in ticks from Germany, covering more than half a century from 1954 to 2009, were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic and Bayesian phylodynamic analysis to determine the phylogeography of TBEV in central Europe. The general Eurasian continental east-to-west pattern of the spread of TBEV was confirmed at the regional level but is interlaced with spreading that arises because of local geography and anthropogenic influence. This spread is reflected by the disease pattern in the Czech Republic that has been observed since 1991. The overall evolutionary rate was estimated to be approximately 8x10(-4) substitutions per nucleotide per year. The analysis of the TBEV E genes of 11 strains isolated at one natural focus in Zd`ar Kaplice proved for the first time that TBEV is indeed subject to local evolution.

Spatiotemporal Pattern Formation in the Oscillatory Electro-Oxidation of Sulfide on a Platinum Disk

Spatiotemporal pattern formation in the electrocatalytic oxidation of sulfide on a platinum disk is investigated using electrochemical methods and a charge-coupled device (CCD) camera simultaneously. The system is characterized by different oscillatory regions spread over a wide potential range. An additional series resistor and a large electrode area facilitate observation of multiple regions of kinetic instabilities along the current/potential curve. Spatiotemporal patterns on the working electrode, such as fronts, pulses, spirals, twinkling eyes, labyrinthine stripes, and alternating synchronized deposition and dissolution, are observed at different operating conditions of series resistance and sweep rate.

Organização administrativa brasileira: quadro atual e propostas acerca da estruturação de entidades vocacionais ao desenvolvimento de políticas de estado, não subordinadas ao poder público central

o objeto da presente pesquisa é evidenciar o padrão de Estado Regulador brasileiro, sua complexidade e o modelo adotado, em parte, na década de 90, para a sua implementação, notadamente com a criação de algumas autarquias especiais dotadas de autonomia funcional diferenciada em relação ao Poder Público central. Examinando os motivos e a forma adotada para a estruturação dessas entidades reguladoras, no bojo de uma tentativa de reformar a organização administrativa, sob a forma gerencial, pretende-se analisar se esse caminho deve ser trilhado, ainda que em parte, para outros setores. A análise envolve a possível redefinição da divisão de tarefas e competências entre "entidades de Governo" e entes públicos cuja missão requer continuidade ("órgãos de Estado"), especialmente, nos casos de alternância do poder. Pretende-se contribuir para a estruturação de entidades vocacionadas para o desenvolvimento de políticas de Estado.