A compendium of modelling techniques

This Integration Insight provides a brief overview of the most popular modelling techniques used to analyse complex real-world problems, as well as some less popular but highly relevant techniques. The modelling methods are divided into three categories, with each encompassing a number of methods, as follows: 1) Qualitative Aggregate Models (Soft Systems Methodology, Concept Maps and Mind Mapping, Scenario Planning, Causal (Loop) Diagrams), 2) Quantitative Aggregate Models (Function fitting and Regression, Bayesian Nets, System of differential equations / Dynamical systems, System Dynamics, Evolutionary Algorithms) and 3) Individual Oriented Models (Cellular Automata, Microsimulation, Agent Based Models, Discrete Event Simulation, Social Network
Analysis). Each technique is broadly described with example uses, key attributes and reference material.

Modélisation de répartition d’espèces aviaires et de feux en forêt boréale du Québec dans un contexte de changement climatique

Les changements climatiques prennent une importance grandissante dans l’étude des phénomènes spatiaux à grande échelle. Plusieurs experts affirment que les changements climatiques seront un des principaux moteurs de changement écologique dans les prochaines décennies et que leurs conséquences seront inévitables. Ces changements se manifesteront sur le milieu physique par la fonte des calottes glaciaires, le dégel du pergélisol, l’instabilité des versants montagneux en zone de pergélisol, l’augmentation de l’intensité, de la sévérité et de la fréquence des événements climatiques extrêmes tels les feux de forêt. Les changements climatiques se manifesteront aussi sur le milieu biologique, tel la modification de la durée de la saison végétative, l’augmentation des espèces exotiques invasives et les changements dans la distribution en espèces vivantes. Deux aspects sont couverts par cette étude : 1) les changements dans la répartition spatiale de 39 espèces d’oiseaux et 2) les modifications dans les patrons spatiaux des feux, en forêt boréale québécoise, tous deux dans l’horizon climatique de 2100. Une approche de modélisation statistique démontre que la répartition spatiale des oiseaux de la forêt boréale est fortement liée à des variables bioclimatiques (R2adj = 0.53). Ces résultats permettent d’effectuer des modélisations bioclimatiques pour le gros-bec errant et la mésange à tête noire quivoient une augmentation de la limite nordique de distribution de l’espèce suivant l’intensité du réchauffement climatique. Finalement, une modélisation spatialement explicite par automate cellulaire permet de démontrer comment les changements climatiques induiront une augmentation dans la fréquence de feux de forêt et dans la superficie brûlée en forêt boréale du Québec.

Programmable Self-Assembly: Constructing Global Shape using Biologically-inspire

In this thesis I present a language for instructing a sheet of identically-programmed, flexible, autonomous agents (``cells'') to assemble themselves into a predetermined global shape, using local interactions. The global shape is described as a folding construction on a continuous sheet, using a set of axioms from paper-folding (origami). I provide a means of automatically deriving the cell program, executed by all cells, from the global shape description. With this language, a wide variety of global shapes and patterns can be synthesized, using only local interactions between identically-programmed cells. Examples include flat layered shapes, all plane Euclidean constructions, and a variety of tessellation patterns. In contrast to approaches based on cellular automata or evolution, the cell program is directly derived from the global shape description and is composed from a small number of biologically-inspired primitives: gradients, neighborhood query, polarity inversion, cell-to-cell contact and flexible folding. The cell programs are robust, without relying on regular cell placement, global coordinates, or synchronous operation and can tolerate a small amount of random cell death. I show that an average cell neighborhood of 15 is sufficient to reliably self-assemble complex shapes and geometric patterns on randomly distributed cells. The language provides many insights into the relationship between local and global descriptions of behavior, such as the advantage of constructive languages, mechanisms for achieving global robustness, and mechanisms for achieving scale-independent shapes from a single cell program. The language suggests a mechanism by which many related shapes can be created by the same cell program, in the manner of D'Arcy Thompson's famous coordinate transformations. The thesis illuminates how complex morphology and pattern can emerge from local interactions, and how one can engineer robust self-assembly.

Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Critical behavior of a contact process with aperiodic transition rates

We performed Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the steady-state critical behavior of a one-dimensional contact process with an aperiodic distribution of rates of transition. As in the presence of randomness, spatial fluctuations can lead to changes of critical behavior. For sufficiently weak fluctuations, we give numerical evidence to show that there is no departure from the universal critical behavior of the underlying uniform model. For strong spatial fluctuations, the analysis of the data indicates a change of critical universality class.

FAST, PARALLEL AND SECURE CRYPTOGRAPHY ALGORITHM USING LORENZ`S ATTRACTOR

A novel cryptography method based on the Lorenz`s attractor chaotic system is presented. The proposed algorithm is secure and fast, making it practical for general use. We introduce the chaotic operation mode, which provides an interaction among the password, message and a chaotic system. It ensures that the algorithm yields a secure codification, even if the nature of the chaotic system is known. The algorithm has been implemented in two versions: one sequential and slow and the other, parallel and fast. Our algorithm assures the integrity of the ciphertext (we know if it has been altered, which is not assured by traditional algorithms) and consequently its authenticity. Numerical experiments are presented, discussed and show the behavior of the method in terms of security and performance. The fast version of the algorithm has a performance comparable to AES, a popular cryptography program used commercially nowadays, but it is more secure, which makes it immediately suitable for general purpose cryptography applications. An internet page has been set up, which enables the readers to test the algorithm and also to try to break into the cipher.

Multi-scale rheological model for discontinuous phenomena in materials under deformation conditions

A study of possibilities given by the developed Cellular Automata–Finite Element (CAFE) multi-scale model for prediction of the initiation and propagation of micro-shear bands and shear bands in metallic materials subjected to plastic deformation is described in the paper. Particular emphasis in defining the criterion for initiation of micro-shear and shear bands, as well as in defining the transition rules for the cellular automata, is put on accounting for the physical aspects of those phenomena occurring in two different scales in the material. The proposed approach led to the creation of the real multi-scale model of strain localization. This model predicts material behavior in various thermo-mechanical processes. Selected examples of applications of the developed model to simulations of metal forming processes, which involve strain localization, are presented in the paper. An approach based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic, which allows to overcome difficulties with remeshing in the traditional CAFE method, is presented in the paper as well. In this approach remeshing becomes possible and mesh distortion, which limits application of the CAFE method to simple deformation processes, is eliminated.

Possibilities to include in numerical simulation stochastic and discontinuous phenomena occurring in material

Simulation of materials processing has to face new difficulties regarding proper description of various discontinuous and stochastic phenomena occurring in materials. Commonly used rheological models based on differential equations treat material as continuum and are unable to describe properly several important phenomena. That is the reason for ongoing search for alternative models, which can account for non-continuous structure of the materials and for the fact, that various phenomena in the materials occur in different scales from nano to mezo. Accounting for the stochastic character of some phenomena is an additional challenge. One of the solutions may be the coupled Cellular Automata (CA) – Finite Element (FE) multi scale model. A detailed discussion about the advantages given by the developed multi scale CAFE model for strain localization phenomena in contrast to capabilities provided by the conventional FE approaches is a subject of this work. Results obtained from the CAFE model are supported by the experimental observations showing influence of many discontinuities existing in the real material on macroscopic response. An immense capabilities of the CAFE approach in comparison to limitations of the FE method for modeling of real material behavior is are shown this work as well.

Comparison of the strain distribution obtained from multi scale and conventional approaches to modelling extrusion

An investigation of the application of a multi scale CAFE model to prediction of the strain localization phenomena in industrial processes, such as extrusion, is presented in this work. Extrusion involves the formation of a strong strain localization zone, which influences the final product microstructure and may lead to a coarse grain layer close to the surface. Modelling of the shape of this zone and prediction of the strain magnitude will allow computer aided design of the extrusion process and optimisation of the technological parameters with respect to the microstructure and properties of the products. Thus, the particular objective of this work is comparison of the FE and CAFE predictions of strain localization in the shear zone area in extrusion. Advantages and disadvantages of the developed CAFE model are also discussed on the basis of the simulation results.

Numerical simulation of the static recrystalization at micro shear bands

The main aim of this work is application of the developed cellular automata (CA) model to investigate influence of the micro shear bands that are present in the heavily deformed material on the static recrystallization. This initial work is the results of recent experimental analyses indicating that the micro shear bands are preferred sites for nucleation of the recrystallization. The procedure of creation of the initial microstructure with features such as grains and micro shear bands as well as basis of the developed CA code for the static recrystallization are also presented in the paper. Finally, the simulation results obtained from different recrystallization temperatures for the microstructures with and without micro shear bands are compared with each other and differences are discussed.

Application of the strain localization CAFE model to investigate extrusion with various die shapes

Multi scale CAFE model for the prediction of initiation and propagation of the micro shear bands and shear bands in metallic materials subjected to plastic deformation is presented. The CAFE approach is the combination of the Cellular Automata (CA) and the Finite Element (FE) methods. The application of the developed CAFE model to analyze material flow during extrusion is the objective of the present work. The proposed CAFE approach is applied in this work to simulation of the extrusion with flat face and convex dies and to investigate differences in the material flow. The initial FE meshes with the set of the CA point are generated for the numerical tests and the results of the metal flow predicted by the CAFE method are presented in the paper.

Development of the multi-scale analysis model to simulate strain localization occurring during material processing

Abstract A detailed description of possibilities given by the developed Cellular Automata—Finite Element (CAFE) multi scale model for prediction of the initiation and propagation of micro shear bands and shear bands in metallic materials subjected to plastic deformation is presented in the work. Particular emphasis in defining the criterion for initiation of micro shear and shear bands, as well as in defining the transition rules for the cellular automata, is put on accounting for the physical aspects of these phenomena occurring in two different scales in the material. The proposed approach led to the creation of the real multi scale model of strain localization phenomena. This model predicts material behavior in various thermo-mechanical processes. Selected examples of applications of the developed model to simulations of metal forming processes, which involve strain localization, are presented in the work. An approach based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic, which allows to overcome difficulties with remeshing in the traditional CAFE method, is a subject of this work as well. In the developed model remeshing becomes possible and difficulties limiting application of the CAFE method to simple deformation processes are solved. Obtained results of numerical simulaA detailed description of possibilities given by the developed Cellular Automata—Finite Element (CAFE) multi scale model for prediction of the initiation and propagation of micro shear bands and shear bands in metallic materials subjected to plastic deformation is presented in the work. Particular emphasis in defining the criterion for initiation of micro shear and shear bands, as well as in defining the transition rules for the cellular automata, is put on accounting for the physical aspects of these phenomena occurring in two different scales in the material. The proposed approach led to the creation of the real multi scale model of strain localization phenomena. This model predicts material behavior in various thermo-mechanical processes. Selected examples of applications of the developed model to simulations of metal forming processes, which involve strain localization, are presented in the work. An approach based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic, which allows to overcome difficulties with remeshing in the traditional CAFE method, is a subject of this work as well. In the developed model remeshing becomes possible and difficulties limiting application of the CAFE method to simple deformation processes are solved. Obtained results of numerical simulations are compared with the experimental results of cold rolling process to show good predicative capabilities of the developed model.tions are compared with the experimental results of cold rolling process to show good predicative capabilities of the developed model.

Smartphone malware and its propagation modeling : A survey

Smartphones are pervasively used in society, and have been both the target and victim of malware writers. Motivated by the significant threat that presents to legitimate users, we survey the current smartphone malware status and their propagation models. The content of this paper is presented in two parts. In the first part, we review the short history of mobile malware evolution since 2004, and then list the classes of mobile malware and their infection vectors. At the end of the first part, we enumerate the possible damage caused by smartphone malware. In the second part, we focus on smartphone malware propagation modeling. In order to understand the propagation behavior of smartphone malware, we recall generic epidemic models as a foundation for further exploration. We then extensively survey the smartphone malware propagation models. At the end of this paper, we highlight issues of the current smartphone malware propagation models and discuss possible future trends based on our understanding of this topic. © © 2014 IEEE.

Avaliação do crescimento de ocupação da bacia do rio Pitimbu com subsídios para estudos de possíveis impactos sobre os recursos hidricos

The Pitimbu River Watershed (PRW), belonging to Potiguar capital metropolitan area, State of Rio Grande do Norte, contributes, among other purposes, to human using and animal watering. This watershed is extremely important because, besides filling up with freshwater approximately 30% of the south part of Natal (South, East and West Zones), contributes to the river shore ecosystem equilibrium. Face to the current conjuncture, this study aims to evaluate the urban development dynamics in the PRW, applying Cellular Automata as a modeling instrument, and to simulate future urban scenarios, between 2014 and 2033, using the simulation program SLEUTH. In the calibration phase, urban spots for 1 984, 1992, 2004 and 2013 years were used, with resolution from 100 meters. After the simulation, it was found a predominance of organic growth, expanding the BHRP from existing urban centers. The spontaneous growth occurred through the fullest extent of the watershed, however the probability of effective growth should not exceed 21%. It was observed that, there was a 68% increase for the period between 2014 and 2033, corresponding to an expansion area of 1,778 ha. For 2033, the source of Pitimbu River area and the Jiqui Lake surroundings will increase more than 78%. Finally, it was seen an exogenous urban growth tendency in the watershed (outside-in). As a result of this growth, hydraulics resources will become scarcer