Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

The Response of a Small Stream in the Lesni Potok Forested Catchment, Central Czech Republic, to a Short-Term In-Stream Acidification

Lesni Potok stream drains a forested headwater catchment in the central Czech Republic. It was artificially acidified with hydrochloric acid (HCl) for four hours to assess the role of stream substrate in acid-neutralisation and recovery. The pH was lowered from 4.7 to 3.2. Desorption of Ca and MP and desorption or solution of Al dominated acid-neutralisation; Al mobilisation was more important later. The stream substrate released 4.542 meq Ca, 1, 184 meq Mg, and 2,329 meq Al over a 45 in long and I in wide stream segment, smaller amounts of Be. Cd, Fe, and Mn were released. Adsorption of SO42- and desorption of F- occurred during the acidification phase of the experiment. The exchange reactions were rapidly reversible for Ca, Mg and SO42- but not symmetric as the substrate resorbed 1083, 790 and 0 meq Ca, Mg, and Al. respectively, in a 4-hour recovery period. Desorption of SO42- occurred during the resorption of Ca and Mg. These exchange and dissolution reactions delay acidification, diminish the pH depression and retard recovery from episodic acidification. The behaviour of the stream substrate-water interaction resembles that for soil-soil water interactions. A mathematical dynamic mass-balance based model, MASS (Modelling Acidification of Stream Sediments), was developed which simulates the adsorption and desorption of base cations during the experiment and was successfully calibrated to the experimental data.

Long-Term and Seasonal Variations in CO2: Linkages to Catchment Alkalinity Generation

As atmospheric emissions of S have declined in the Northern Hemisphere, there has been an expectation of increased pH and alkalinity in streams believed to have been acidified by excess S and N. Many streams and lakes have not recovered. Evidence from East Bear Brook in Maine, USA and modelling with the groundwater acid-base model MAGIC (Cosby et al. 1985a,b) indicate that seasonal and yearly variations in soil PCO2 are adequate to enhance or even reverse acid-base (alkalinity) changes anticipated from modest decreases of SO4 in surface waters. Alkalinity is generated in the soil by exchange of H+ from dissociation of H2CO3, which in turn is derived from the dissolving of soil CO2. The variation in soil PCO2 produces an alkalinity variation of up to 15 mu eq L-1 in stream water. Detecting and relating increases in alkalinity to decreases in stream SO4 are significantly more difficult in the short term because of this effect. For example, modelled alkalinity recovery at Bear Brook due to a decline of 20 mu eq SO4 L-1 in soil solution is compensated by a decline from 0.4 to 0.2% for soil air PCO2. This compensation ability decays over time as base saturation declines. Variable PCO2 has less effect in more acidic soils. Short-term decreases of PCO2 below the long-term average value produce short-term decreases in alkalinity, whereas short-term increases in PCO2 produce shortterm alkalization. Trend analysis for detecting recovery of streams and lakes from acidification after reduced atmospheric emissions will require a longer monitoring period for statistical significance than previously appreciated.

Terrestrial Radar Interferometric Measurement of Hillslope Deformation and Atmospheric Disturbances in the Illgraben Debris-Flow Catchment, Switzerland

We describe a method for rapid identification and precise quantification of slope deformation using a portable radar interferometer. A rockslide with creep-like behavior was identified in the rugged and inaccessible headwaters of the Illgraben debris-flow catchment, located in the Central Swiss Alps. The estimated volume of the moving rock mass was approximately 0.5 x 10(6) m(3) with a maximum daily (3-D) displacement rate of 3 mm. Fast scene acquisition in the order of 6 s/scene led to uniquely precise mapping of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric phase delay. Observations led to a simple qualitative model for prediction of atmospheric disturbances using a simple model for solar radiation, which can be used for advanced campaign planning for short observation periods (hours to days).

Transient sediment supply in a high-altitude Alpine environment evidenced through a 10Be budget of the Etages catchment (French Western Alps)

Although beryllium-10 (10Be) concentrations in stream sediments provide useful synoptic views of catchment-wide erosion rates, little is known on the relative contributions of different sediment supply mechanisms to the acquisition of their initial signature in the headwaters. Here we address this issue by conducting a 10Be-budget of detrital materials that characterize the morphogenetic domains representative of high-altitude environments of the European Alps. We focus on the Etages catchment, located in the Ecrins-Pelvoux massif (southeast France), and illustrate how in situ 10Be concentrations can be used for tracing the origin of the sand fraction from the bedload in the trunk stream. The landscape of the Etages catchment is characterized by a geomorphic transient state, high topographic gradients, and a large variety of modern geomorphic domains ranging from glacial environments to scarcely vegetated alluvial plains. Beryllium-10 concentrations measured in the Etages catchment vary from similar to 1 x 104 to 4.5 x 105 atoms per gram quartz, while displaying consistent 10Be signatures within each representative morphogenetic unit. We show that the basic requirements for inferring catchment-wide denudation from 10Be concentration measurements are not satisfied in this small, dynamic catchment. However, the distinct 10Be signature observed for the geomorphic domains can be used as a tracer. We suggest that a terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) budget approach provides a valuable tool for the tracing of material origin in basins where the let nature do the averaging' principles may be violated.