Life history of a native emydid turtle (Malaclemys terrapin centrata) on the remote oceanic islands of Bermuda

Diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) are native to the remote oceanic islands of Bermuda and presently inhabit only four small brackish water ponds on a private golf course. The life history of this species is poorly understood on Bermuda and so the aim of this study was to fill these knowledge gaps, to compare the results with what is known from other areas in the North American range, and to inform the development of a local management plan. The results of a mark-recapture census revealed that ca. 100 individuals ≥81 mm straight carapace length live on Bermuda, of which nearly half (48.5%) were considered sexually mature. The population is dominated by females (sex ratio 2.9:1) and annual recruitment over the three year period was found to be extremely low (approximately two terrapins). Female diamondback terrapins in Bermuda nest almost exclusively within a limited number of sand bunkers on the golf course. Nesting commenced in late March or early April and ended in late August. Peak oviposition was observed in May and June. Clutch size averaged 5.1 eggs (range 0-10; SD 2.4) and the incubation period averaged 61.8 days (range 49-83; SD 10.5). Delayed emergence was documented, with 43.8% of the hatchlings remaining in their natal nests over the winter months. The mean annual hatching success rate was determined to be 19% (range 17.6-21; SD 1.9). Radio-telemetry was used to investigate the movements and survivorship of postemergent hatchling diamondback terrapins. The results indicated that mangrove swamps and grass-dominated marshes adjacent to the ponds are important developmental habitats for hatchlings. Yellow-crowned night herons (Nyctanassa violacea) were found to be significant predators of small terrapins during spring emergence. Small aquatic gastropods comprised 66.7% of the faecal samples analysed from the Bermudian population. Scavenged fish and vertebrate animal remains, terrestrial arthropods, polychaete worms and bivalves were consumed in lesser amounts. Sediment from the pond environment was found in 74% of the faecal samples analysed and is believed to have been incidentally ingested while foraging for the small benthic gastropods. Eco-toxicological analyses of the pond sediment, prey and terrapin eggs showed that the Bermudian diamondback terrapins live and feed in wetland habitats characterised by chronic, multifactorial contamination; principally total petroleum hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and a variety of heavy metals. This study found that some of those contaminants are accumulating in the gastropod prey as well as being transferred to terrapin eggs. This may be reducing the incidence of successful embryonic development for this species in Bermuda and may likely contribute to the observed low hatching rates. These collective findings indicate that the Bermudian population is very vulnerable to local extirpation.

Movements of Diplodus sargus (Sparidae) within a Portuguese coastal Marine Protected Area: Are they really protected?

Mark-recapture tagging and acoustic telemetry were used to study the movements of Diplodus sargus within the Pessegueiro Island no-take Marine Protected Area (MPA), (Portugal) and assess its size adequacy for this species' protection against fishing activities. Therefore, 894 Diplodus sargus were captured and marked with conventional plastic t-bar tags. At the same time, 19 D. sargus were tagged with acoustic transmitters and monitored by 20 automatic acoustic receivers inside the no-take MPA for 60 days. Recapture rate of conventionally tagged specimens was 3.47%, most occurring during subsequent marking campaigns. One individual however was recaptured by recreational fishermen near Faro (ca. 250 km from the tagging location) 6 months after release. Furthermore, three specimens were recaptured in October 2013 near releasing site, one year after being tagged. Regarding acoustic telemetry, 18 specimens were detected by the receivers during most of the study period. To analyse no-take MPA use, the study site was divided into five areas reflecting habitat characteristics, three of which were frequently used by the tagged fish: Exterior, Interior Protected and Interior Exposed areas. Information on no-take protected area use was also analysed according to diel and tidal patterns. Preferred passageways and permanence areas were identified and high site fidelity was confirmed. The interaction between tide and time of day influenced space use patterns, with higher and more variable movements during daytime and neap tides. This no-take MPA proved to be an important refuge and feeding area for this species, encompassing most of the home ranges of tagged specimens. Therefore, it is likely that this no-take MPA is of adequate size to protect D. sargus against fishing activities, thus contributing to its sustainable management in the region.

Mosquito traps designed to capture Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) females: preliminary comparison of Adultrap, MosquiTRAP and backpack aspirator efficiency in a dengue-endemic area of Brazil

In this report, the efficiency of Adultrap under field conditions is compared to a CDC backpack aspirator and to MosquiTRAP. An urban dengue-endemic area of Rio de Janeiro was selected to evaluate the efficiency of mosquito traps in capturing Aedes aegypti females. Adultrap and aspirator captured similar numbers of Ae. aegypti females, with the former showing high specificity to gravid individuals (93.6%). A subsequent mark-release-recapture experiment was conducted to evaluate Adultrap and MosquiTRAP efficiency concomitantly. With a 6.34% recapture rate, MosquiTRAP captured a higher mean number of female Ae. aegypti per trap than Adultrap (Ç2 = 14.26; df = 1; p < 0,05). However, some MosquiTRAPs (28.12%) contained immature Ae. aegypti after 18 days of exposure in the field and could be pointed as an oviposition site for female mosquitoes. Both trapping methods, designed to collect gravid Ae. aegypti females, seem to be efficient, reliable and may aid routine Ae. aegypti surveillance.

Mixture models for capture-recapture count data

The contribution investigates the problem of estimating the size of a population, also known as the missing cases problem. Suppose a registration system is targeting to identify all cases having a certain characteristic such as a specific disease (cancer, heart disease, ...), disease related condition (HIV, heroin use, ...) or a specific behavior (driving a car without license). Every case in such a registration system has a certain notification history in that it might have been identified several times (at least once) which can be understood as a particular capture-recapture situation. Typically, cases are left out which have never been listed at any occasion, and it is this frequency one wants to estimate. In this paper modelling is concentrating on the counting distribution, e.g. the distribution of the variable that counts how often a given case has been identified by the registration system. Besides very simple models like the binomial or Poisson distribution, finite (nonparametric) mixtures of these are considered providing rather flexible modelling tools. Estimation is done using maximum likelihood by means of the EM algorithm. A case study on heroin users in Bangkok in the year 2001 is completing the contribution.

Estimators in capture-recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture-recapture methods to human populations. Capture-recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao's lower bound estimator, the Zelterman's estimator, McKendrick's moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao's estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao's and Chapman's estimator. Results indicate that Chao's estimator is less biased than Chapman's estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao's estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

CAMCR: Computer assisted mixture model analysis for capture-recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Application of one-list capture-recapture models to scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain

In this paper, we apply one-list capture-recapture models to estimate the number of scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain. We applied this technique to the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme dataset where cases from all the surveillance sources monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain, the abattoir survey, the fallen stock survey and the statutory reporting of clinical cases, are gathered. Consequently, the estimates of prevalence obtained from this scheme should be comprehensive and cover all the different presentations of the disease captured individually by the surveillance sources. Two estimators were applied under the one-list approach: the Zelterman estimator and Chao's lower bound estimator. Our results could only inform with confidence the scrapie-affected holding population with clinical disease; this moved around the figure of 350 holdings in Great Britain for the period under study, April 2005-April 2006. Our models allowed the stratification by surveillance source and the input of covariate information, holding size and country of origin. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

Estimates of Foraging Population and Territory of Heterotermes tenuis Colonies using Mark-Release-Recapture (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae)

Heterotermes tenuis is an important economic pest in São Paulo state. Foraging populations of three field colonies of H. tenuis located on a University campus (UNESP, Rio Claro, SP, Brazil) were characterized. Foraging populations of H. tenuis colonies were calculated using four cycles of a mark-release-recapture program with a weighted mean method. The foraging population sizes of three colonies: A, B and C were 389,313±14,907; 265,589 ±12,635; and 641,600∓12,127; respectively. Foraging biomasses were 0.77 kg in the colony A, 0.51 kg in the colony B and 1.17 kg in colony C. Mean worker biomass was approximately 1.9 mg. Foraging territories occupied an area ranging from 70 m2 to 131 m2 per colony. The maximum linear foraging distance traveled by H. tenuis was 28m.

Estimating the number of whales entering trade using DNA profiling and capture-recapture analysis of market products

Surveys of commercial markets combined with molecular taxonomy (i.e. molecular monitoring) provide a means to detect products from illegal, unregulated and/or unreported (IUU) exploitation, including the sale of fisheries bycatch and wild meat (bushmeat). Capture-recapture analyses of market products using DNA profiling have the potential to estimate the total number of individuals entering the market. However, these analyses are not directly analogous to those of living individuals because a ‘market individual’ does not die suddenly but, instead, remains available for a time in decreasing quantities, rather like the exponential decay of a radioactive isotope. Here we use mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and microsatellite genotypes to individually identify products from North Pacific minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata ssp.) purchased in 12 surveys of markets in the Republic of (South) Korea from 1999 to 2003. By applying a novel capture-recapture model with a decay rate parameter to the 205 unique DNA profiles found among 289 products, we estimated that the total number of whales entering trade across the five-year survey period was 827 (SE, 164; CV, 0.20) and that the average ‘half-life’ of products from an individual whale on the market was 1.82 months (SE, 0.24; CV, 0.13). Our estimate of whales in trade (reflecting the true numbers killed) was significantly greater than the officially reported bycatch of 458 whales for this period. This unregulated exploitation has serious implications for the survival of this genetically distinct coastal population. Although our capture-recapture model was developed for specific application to the Korean whale-meat markets, the exponential decay function could be modified to improve the estimates of trade in other wildmeat or fisheries markets or abundance of living populations by noninvasive genotyping.