Measuring intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain: a selection-bias-free approach

This paper analyses intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain correcting for different selection biases. We address the co-residence selection problem by combining information from two samples and using the two-sample two-stage least square estimator. We find a small decrease in elasticity when we move to younger cohorts. Furthermore, we find a higher correlation in the case of daughters than in the case of sons; however, when we consider the employment selection in the case of daughters, by adopting a Heckman-type correction method, the diference between sons and daughters disappears. By decomposing the sources of earnings elasticity across generations, we find that the correlation between child's and father's occupation is the most important component. Finally, quantile regressions estimates show that the influence of the father's earnings is greater when we move to the lower tail of the offspring's earnings distribution, especially in the case of daughters' earnings.

Chemical profiling of different hashish seizures by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and statistical methodology: a case report

Limited information is available regarding the methodology required to characterize hashish seizures for assessing the presence or the absence of a chemical link between two seizures. This casework report presents the methodology applied for assessing that two different police seizures were coming from the same block before this latter one was split. The chemical signature was extracted using GC-MS analysis and the implemented methodology consists in a study of intra- and inter-variability distributions based on the measurement of the chemical profiles similarity using a number of hashish seizures and the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Different statistical scenarios (i.e., a combination of data pretreatment techniques and selection of target compounds) were tested to find the most discriminating one. Seven compounds showing high discrimination capabilities were selected on which a specific statistical data pretreatment was applied. Based on the results, the statistical model built for comparing the hashish seizures leads to low error rates. Therefore, the implemented methodology is suitable for the chemical profiling of hashish seizures.

Are parties domocratizing themselves? the evolution of leardership selection in Spain (1977-2008)

The aim of this paper is to verify, for the Spanish case, whether between 1977 and 2008 has increased the internal democracy of the major political parties (PSOE, AP / PP, PCE / IU, PNV and CDC). To do this, we will focus on their leadership selection processes, one of the key elements associated with intra-party democracy. The paper is going to introduce data on four different dimensions of leadership selection: the certification process, the voting procedure, the inclusiveness of the selectorate and, finally, the degree of competitiveness. The results will show that have been few changes in the leadership selection processes of the Spanish political parties since 1977. However, the results of the Spanish case will also be used to suggest some preliminary links between the four dimensions.

On the maintenance of sex-chromosome polymorphism by sex-antagonistic selection

Complex sex-determination systems are a priori unstable and require specific selective forces for their maintenance. Analytical derivations have suggested that sex-antagonistic selection may play such a role, but this assumed absence of recombination between the sex-determining and sex-antagonistic genes. Using individual-based simulations, and focusing on the sex chromosome and coloration polymorphisms of platy fishes as a case study, we show that the conditions for polymorphism maintenance induce female-biases in primary sex ratios, so that sex-ratio selection makes the system collapse towards male- or female heterogamety as soon as recombinant genotypes appear. However, a polymorphism can still be maintained under scenarios comprising strong sexual selection against dull males, mild natural selection against bright females, and low recombination rates. Though such conditions are plausibly met in natural populations of fishes harbouring such polymorphisms, quantitative empirical evaluations are required to properly test whether sex-antagonistic selection is a causal agent, or if other selective processes are required (such as local mate competition favouring female biased sex ratios).

Machine learning algorithms for spatial data. Case studies: Environmental pollution, natural hazards, renewable resources

This paper presents general problems and approaches for the spatial data analysis using machine learning algorithms. Machine learning is a very powerful approach to adaptive data analysis, modelling and visualisation. The key feature of the machine learning algorithms is that they learn from empirical data and can be used in cases when the modelled environmental phenomena are hidden, nonlinear, noisy and highly variable in space and in time. Most of the machines learning algorithms are universal and adaptive modelling tools developed to solve basic problems of learning from data: classification/pattern recognition, regression/mapping and probability density modelling. In the present report some of the widely used machine learning algorithms, namely artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures and Support Vector Machines (SVM), are adapted to the problems of the analysis and modelling of geo-spatial data. Machine learning algorithms have an important advantage over traditional models of spatial statistics when problems are considered in a high dimensional geo-feature spaces, when the dimension of space exceeds 5. Such features are usually generated, for example, from digital elevation models, remote sensing images, etc. An important extension of models concerns considering of real space constrains like geomorphology, networks, and other natural structures. Recent developments in semi-supervised learning can improve modelling of environmental phenomena taking into account on geo-manifolds. An important part of the study deals with the analysis of relevant variables and models' inputs. This problem is approached by using different feature selection/feature extraction nonlinear tools. To demonstrate the application of machine learning algorithms several interesting case studies are considered: digital soil mapping using SVM, automatic mapping of soil and water system pollution using ANN; natural hazards risk analysis (avalanches, landslides), assessments of renewable resources (wind fields) with SVM and ANN models, etc. The dimensionality of spaces considered varies from 2 to more than 30. Figures 1, 2, 3 demonstrate some results of the studies and their outputs. Finally, the results of environmental mapping are discussed and compared with traditional models of geostatistics.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

Social Dynamics in Paper Wasps: The case of nest-drifting in Polistes canadensis

Le passage de la vie solitaire à la vie sociale représente une des principales transitions évolutives. La socialité a évolué au sein de plusieurs taxons du règne animal et notamment chez les insectes sociaux qui ont atteint son niveau le plus élevé : l'eusocialité. Les colonies d'insectes sociaux se composent d'une reine, qui monopolise la reproduction, et d'ouvrières, non-reproductrices ou parfois stériles, qui aident à élever la descendance de la reine. Selon la théorie de la sélection de parentèle, les ouvrières augmentent leur fitness (succès reproducteur) non pas à travers leur propre progéniture, mais en aidant des individus apparentés (leur reine) à produire davantage de descendants. Cette théorie prédit ainsi que les ouvrières ont un intérêt à rester fidèles à leur nid natal. Toutefois, chez la guêpe tropicale Polistes canadensis, de nombreuse ouvrières visitent d'autres nids que leur nid natal : un phénomène appelé « dérive des ouvrières ». Le but de ce doctorat est ainsi de mieux comprendre les mécanismes impliqués dans ce comportement particulier des ouvrières ainsi que ces implications pour la théorie de la sélection de parentèle. Nous avons examiné le comportement de dérive des ouvrières à travers une étude des dynamiques sociales chez la guêpe tropicale P. canadensis. Mes résultats montrent que les populations de P. canadensis se composent en différentes agrégations de nids. Malgré de précédentes suggestions, on n'observe qu'une faible viscosité génétique au sein des populations de P. canadensis étudiées. On retrouve toutefois un degré d'apparentement entre nids d'une même agrégation. Ceci suggère que les ouvrières dériveuses sont susceptibles de bénéficier de fitness indirect en aidant les nids proches géographiquement. De plus, ces échanges d'ouvrières ne semblent pas accidentels puisque l'on constate des variations de taux de dérive et puisque les déplacements observés entre nids persistent sur plusieurs périodes de temps. La charge de travail, qui correspond aux différences d'effort de fourragement entre nid visités et natals, est décrite dans notre étude comme potentiel facteur expliquant le comportement de dérive des ouvrières chez P. canadensis. Nos expériences de retrait d'ouvrières et de couvain ont révélées que les dériveuses ne semblent pas répondre aux changements de besoins en aide des nids visités. Les ouvrières dériveuses biaisent leur effort en aidant leur propre nid, par lequel elles bénéficient le plus en termes de fitness indirect, avant de se consacrer à tout autre nid. Dans l'ensemble, ces résultats sur la dérive des ouvrières chez P. canadensis sont cohérents et suggèrent que ce comportement est une importante stratégie de reproduction alternative chez cette espèce qui contribue à la fitness indirecte de ces ouvrières non-reproductrices. De plus, ce doctorat apporte des informations sur la structure génétique des populations de guêpes Polistes et décrit le rôle des ouvrières inactives. Celles-ci semblent servir de réserve en ouvrières apportant du support à la colonie dans l'éventualité d'une perte d'individus. Plus généralement, ce travail met l'accent sur l'organisation complexe et l'adaptabilité des individus dans les sociétés d'insectes. - One major transition in evolution is the shift from solitary to social life. Sociality has evolved in a few taxa of the animal kingdom, most notably in the social insects which have achieved the highest level of sociality: eusociality. Colonies of social insects are formed by a reproductive queen, and many non-reproductive or sterile workers who help raise their mother queen's offspring. Kin selection theory explains worker behaviour in terms of the indirect fitness they gain from raising non-offspring kin. It therefore predicts that workers should stay faithful to their natal nests, to which they are the more related. However, in the tropical paper wasps Polistes canadensis, high levels of nest-drifting, whereby workers spend time on other neighbouring nests, has been reported. This PhD aimed at understanding the mechanisms involved in this peculiar behaviour as well as its implications for kin selection theory. I examined nest-drifting through the study of the social dynamics of the tropical paper wasp P. canadensis. My results showed that populations of this species of paper wasps are composed of different aggregations of nests. The studied populations showed little limited dispersal (viscosity), despite previous suggestion, but nests within these aggregations were more related to each other than nests outside of aggregations. This suggested that drifters may benefit from indirect fitness when helping on neighbouring nests. Drifting was unlikely to be accidental since we found drifting patterns at various rates and consistently over several time periods during monitoring. Workload (differences in colony-level foraging effort) was also a potential factor explaining nest-drifting in P. canadensis. Worker and brood removal experiments revealed that drifters do not respond to any changes in the need for help in the non-natal nests they visit. Drifters thus bias their help in their natal nests, from which they may benefit the most in terms of indirect fitness, before investing in others. Altogether, these results on nest-drifting in P. canadensis are consistent and suggest that nest-drifting is an important alternative reproductive strategy, contributing to the indirect fitness benefits gained by non-reproductive wasps. Additionally, this PhD provides information on the genetic structure of paper wasps' populations and demonstrates the role of inactive or lazy wasps as a "reserve worker force", which provides resilience to the colony in the event of worker mortality. More generally, this work further highlights the complex organization and adaptability of individuals in insect societies.

Increased frequency of regulatory T cells and selection of highly potent CD62L+ cells during treatment of human lung transplant recipients with rapamycin.

The currently available immunosuppressive agents applied in human transplantation medicine are highly potent in the protection from acute allograft rejection. However, long-term allograft survival is still poor as these drugs fail to sufficiently prevent chronic allograft rejection. Naturally occurring regulatory T cells have been postulated as the key players to establish long-lasting transplantation tolerance. Thus, the development of immunosuppressive regimens which shift the pathological balance of cytopathic versus regulatory T cells of human allograft recipients towards a protective T-cell composition is a promising approach to overcome limitations of current transplantation medicine. Thirty-three patients that received rapamycin (RPM) or calcineurin inhibitor treatment following lung transplantation were included and their T-cell compartments analysed. Twelve healthy volunteers without history of lung disease served as controls. In this article, we show that treatment of human lung transplant recipients with RPM is associated with an increased frequency of regulatory T cells, as compared with treatment with calcineurin inhibitors or to healthy controls. Moreover, regulatory T cells during treatment with RPM were CD62Lhigh, a phenotype that displayed an enhanced immunosuppressive capacity ex vivo. Our data support the use of RPM in human lung transplant recipients and undertaking of further prospective studies evaluating its impact on allograft and patient survival.

Can we continue to neglect genomic variation in introgression rates when inferring the history of speciation? A case study in a Mytilus hybrid zone.

The use of molecular data to reconstruct the history of divergence and gene flow between populations of closely related taxa represents a challenging problem. It has been proposed that the long-standing debate about the geography of speciation can be resolved by comparing the likelihoods of a model of isolation with migration and a model of secondary contact. However, data are commonly only fit to a model of isolation with migration and rarely tested against the secondary contact alternative. Furthermore, most demographic inference methods have neglected variation in introgression rates and assume that the gene flow parameter (Nm) is similar among loci. Here, we show that neglecting this source of variation can give misleading results. We analysed DNA sequences sampled from populations of the marine mussels, Mytilus edulis and M. galloprovincialis, across a well-studied mosaic hybrid zone in Europe and evaluated various scenarios of speciation, with or without variation in introgression rates, using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach. Models with heterogeneous gene flow across loci always outperformed models assuming equal migration rates irrespective of the history of gene flow being considered. By incorporating this heterogeneity, the best-supported scenario was a long period of allopatric isolation during the first three-quarters of the time since divergence followed by secondary contact and introgression during the last quarter. By contrast, constraining migration to be homogeneous failed to discriminate among any of the different models of gene flow tested. Our simulations thus provide statistical support for the secondary contact scenario in the European Mytilus hybrid zone that the standard coalescent approach failed to confirm. Our results demonstrate that genomic variation in introgression rates can have profound impacts on the biological conclusions drawn from inference methods and needs to be incorporated in future studies.

Duplication and concerted evolution in a master sex determiner under balancing selection.

The transformer (tra) gene is a key regulator in the signalling hierarchy controlling all aspects of somatic sexual differentiation in Drosophila and other insects. Here, we show that six of the seven sequenced ants have two copies of tra. Surprisingly, the two paralogues are always more similar within species than among species. Comparative sequence analyses indicate that this pattern is owing to the ongoing concerted evolution after an ancestral duplication rather than independent duplications in each of the six species. In particular, there was strong support for inter-locus recombination between the paralogues of the ant Atta cephalotes. In the five species where the location of paralogues is known, they are adjacent to each other in four cases and separated by only few genes in the fifth case. Because there have been extensive genomic rearrangements in these lineages, this suggests selection acting to conserve their synteny. In three species, we also find a signature of positive selection in one of the paralogues. In three bee species where information is available, the tra gene is also duplicated, the copies are adjacent and in at least one species there was recombination between paralogues. These results suggest that concerted evolution plays an adaptive role in the evolution of this gene family.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

Evaluation of an online, case-based interactive approach to teaching pathophysiology

Rapport de synthèse : L'article qui fait l'objet de ma thèse évalue une nouvelle approche pédagogique pour l'apprentissage de certains chapitres de physiopathologie. Le dispositif pédagogique se base sur l'alternance d'apprentissage ex-cathedra et de l'utilisation d'un site web comprenant des vignettes cliniques. Lors de la consultation de ces-dernières, l'étudiant est invité à demander des examens de laboratoire dont il pourrait justifier la pertinence selon le cas clinique étudié. La nouveauté du procédé réside dans le fait que, préalablement à son cours ex-cathedra, l'enseignant peut consulter les statistiques de demandes de laboratoire et ainsi orienter son cours selon les éléments mal compris par les étudiants. A la suite du cours ex-cathedra, les étudiants peuvent consulter sur internet la vignette clinique complète avec des explications. A l'issue de tout le cours, une évaluation auprès des étudiants a été conduite. Le procédé a été mis en place durant deux années consécutives et l'article en discute notamment les résultats. Nous avons pu conclure que cette méthode innovatrice d'enseignement amène les étudiants à mieux se préparer pour les cours ex-cathedra tout en permettant à l'enseignant d'identifier plus précisément quelles thématiques étaient difficiles pour les étudiants et donc d'ajuster au mieux son cours. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à créer ce dispositif d'apprentissage, à créer l'application web des vignettes cliniques et à l'implanter durant deux années consécutives. J'ai ensuite analysé les données des évaluations et écrit l'article que j'ai présenté à la revue 'Medical Teacher'. Après quelques corrections et précisions demandées par le comité de lecture, l'article a été accepté et publié. Ce travail a débouché sur une seconde version de l'application web qui est actuellement utilisée lors du module 3.1 de 3è année à l'Ecole de Médecine à Lausanne. Summary : Since the early days of sexual selection, our understanding of the selective forces acting on males and females during reproduction has increased remarkably. However, despite a long tradition of experimental and theoretical work in this field and relentless effort, numerous questions remain unanswered and many results are conflicting. Moreover, the interface between sexual selection and conservation biology has to date received little attention, despite existing evidence for its importance. In the present thesis, I first used an empirical approach to test various sexual selection hypotheses in a population of whitefish of central Switzerland. This precise population is characterized by a high prevalence of gonadal alterations in males. In particular, I challenged the hypothesis that whitefish males displaying peculiar gonadal features are of lower genetic quality than other seemingly normal males. Additionally, I also worked on identifying important determinant of sperm behavior. During a second theoretical part of my work, which is part of a larger project on the evolution of female mate preferences in harvested fish populations, I developed an individual-based simulation model to estimate how different mate discrimination costs affect the demographical behavior of fish populations and the evolutionary trajectories of female mate preferences. This latter work provided me with some insight on a recently published article addressing the importance of sexual selection for harvesting-induced evolution. I built upon this insight in a short perspective paper. In parallel, I let some methodological questions drive my thoughts, and wrote an essay about possible synergies between the biological, the philosophical and the statistical approach to biological questions.

Selection, shape and relaxation of fronts: A numerical study of the effects of inertia.

We study the problem of front propagation in the presence of inertia. We extend the analytical approach for the overdamped problem to this case, and present numerical results to support our theoretical predictions. Specifically, we conclude that the velocity and shape selection problem can still be described in terms of the metastable, nonlinear, and linear overdamped regimes. We study the characteristic relaxation dynamics of these three regimes, and the existence of degenerate (¿quenched¿) solutions.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.