Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Leader - Follower Relations In An Intercultural Chinese Context - Personal, Interpersonal and Behavioural Influences and Impact on Work Contribution

The successful interaction between leaders and their followers is central to the overall functioning of a company. The increasingly multinational nature of modern business and the resulting multicultural and increasingly heterogeneous workforce imposes specific challenges to the development of high-quality work relationships. The Western multinational companies that have started operations in China are facing these challenges. This study examines the quality of leader-follower relationships between Western expatriate leaders and their Chinese followers as well as between Chinese leaders and their Chinese followers in Western-owned subsidiaries in China. The focus is on the influence of personal, interpersonal and behavioural factors (personality, values, cultural knowledge, perceived and actual similarity, interactional justice, and follower performance) and the work-related implications of these relationships (job attitudes and organisational citizenship behaviour). One interesting finding of this study is that Chinese followers have higher perceptions of their Western than their Chinese leaders. The results also indicate that Chinese and Western leaders’ perceptions of their followers are not influenced favourably by the same follower characteristics. In a similar vein, Chinese followers value different traits in Western versus Chinese leaders. These results, as well as the numerous more specific findings of the study, have practical implications for international human resource management and areas such as selection, placement and training. Due to the different effect of personal and interpersonal factors across groups, it is difficult to achieve the “perfect match” between leader and follower characteristics that simultaneously contribute to high-quality relationships for Chinese and Western leaders as well as for followers. However, the results indicate that the ability of organisations to enhance the quality of leader-follower relations by selecting and matching people with suitable characteristics may provide an effective means for organisations to increase positive job attitudes and hence influence work-related outcomes.

Managing in the “Golden Cage” An Ethnographic Study of Work, Management and Gender in Parliamentary Administration

Parliaments are political institutions, but they are also places where people work; the MPs and the people who are employed there work, albeit in rather different ways. In this research the focus is on those in a Parliament who work there as employees and managers, and thereby, in some senses, run the organisation. Accordingly, this involves seeing the Parliament as a working environment, for MPs and employees, for men and women. The institution of Parliament is thus here examined by looking at it from a different and new angle. Instead of the usual focus on politicians the focus is on the administration of this institution. The aim is, amongst other things, to increase knowledge and offer different perspectives on democracy and democratic institutions. Unpacking the nearly mythical institution into smaller, more digestible, graspable realities should at the very least help to remind the wider society that although nations, to a certain extent, do need national institutions they should not become mystified or seen as larger than life. Institutions should work on behalf of people and thus be accountable to these same people. The main contribution of this work is to explore and problematise how managing and working is done inside an institution that both largely fulfils the characteristics of a bureaucracy and yet also has added special features that seem to be rather far removed from clear bureaucratic structures. This research offers a new kind of information on working life inside this elite institution. The joys and the struggles of working and managing in this particular public sector organisation are illustrated here and offer a view, a glimpse, into the experiences of managing and working in this House.

Workplace Bullying among Business Professionals - Prevalence, Organisational Antecedents and Gender Differences (summary section only)

Workplace bullying can be defined as repeated and persistent negative acts that involve a power imbalance and create a hostile work environment. Partly because of the many negative consequences associated with the phenomenon, bullying has recently become the focus of many studies by contemporary organisational researchers. Drawing on a survey, this thesis provides information on the prevalence and forms of bullying among business professionals, a group of employees neglected in previous bullying research. The thesis follows a tradition among Nordic researchers that emphasises the role of the psychosocial work environment in bullying. In particular, it illustrates how high internal competition and a high degree of organisational politics in business life may lead employees to use bullying as a tactic to gain benefits over their colleagues. Furthermore, it explores the significance of gender in bullying in male-dominated work environments, with women tending to be subjected to more negative acts, tending to feel less capable to defend themselves in these situations, and tending to feel less reluctant to classify these experiences as bullying. In addition to the introductory essay, this thesis consists of a book chapter and four articles. These five papers address particular aspects of workplace bullying: the prevalence and forms of bullying, the significance of gender in bullying, and organisational antecedents of bullying.

Increasing Knowledge Focus - a Means for Entrepreneurs to Remain on a Growth Path: Essays on the Role and Nature of Knowledge Management in Finnish SMEs (summary section only)

This study explores the role and nature of knowledge management (KM) in small and medium-sized companies (SMEs). Even though the role of knowledge as a competitive advantage is commonly recognized in the SME sector, almost no attention has been paid to the managing and developing of knowledge in SMEs. This thesis consists of three different sub-studies that were reported in four individual essays. The results of the questionnaire study indicate that nearly all companies that responded to the questionnaire (N = 108) found intangible assets, i.e. knowledge resources to be their main source of competitive advantage. However, only less than a third of the companies actively deal with knowledge management. The results also indicate a significant correlation between activity in knowledge management and sustainable organic growth of the company. The interview study (N = 10) explored the context and motives of the SMEs for managing their intangible assets, and the concrete practices of knowledge management. It turned out that KM facilitated change management, clarification of the vision and new strategy formulation. All the interviewed companies were aiming at improved innovation process, new ways of doing business and attaining an increased “knowledge focus” in their business. Nearly all also aspired to grow significantly. Thus, KM provides a strategy for these SMEs to guarantee their survival and sustainability in the turbulent markets. The action research was a process to assess and develop intangible resources in three companies. The experienced benefits were the clarification of future focus and strategy, creation of a common language to discuss strategic issues within the company, as well as improved balance of different categories of intangible assets. After the process all the case companies had developed in the chosen key areas. Thus, by systematic knowledge management the implementation of new strategic orientation (knowledge focusing) was facilitated. The findings can be summarized in two main points. First, knowledge management seems to serve the purpose of change, renewal and new strategic orientation in the SMEs. It also seems to be closely related to organic growth and innovation. All of these factors can be considered dimensions of entrepreneurship. Second, the conscious development of intangible assets can increase the balance of different categories of intangible assets and the overall knowledge focusing of business. In the case companies, this in turn facilitated the path to the improved overall performance.

Managing Project Business Development: an Inter-Organizational and Intra-Organizational Perspective (summary section only)

The driving force behind this study is the gap between the reality of the firms engaged in project business and the available studies covering project management and business process development. Previous studies show that project-based organizations were ‘immature’ in terms of the project-management ‘maturity model’, as few firms were found to be optimizing processes. Even within those, very little attention was paid to combine inter-organizational and intra-organizational perspectives. In this study an effort is made to elaborate some thoughts and views on project management, which interrelate firms’ external and internal activities. In line with the integration, the dissertation uses an approach to the management of project-business interdependencies in the networks of actors, activities and resources. Firstly, the study develops an understanding for inter-organizational perspectives by exploring the complementarities of process activities in the basic development of project business. It presents a framework that is elaborated on the basis of the reciprocal interactions of activities within and outside the organization—thus providing a coherent basis for continuous business-process improvement. In addition, the study presents new tools that can be used to develop project-business processes in each of its functional areas. The research demonstrates how project-business activities can be optimized using the right resources at the right time with the right actors and the right actions. The selected five articles included in this dissertation explain the basic framework for the development of project business. Each paper covers various aspects of inter-organizational and intra-organizational perspectives for project management. The study develops a valuable and procedural model for business-process improvement using the Delphi method that can be used not only in academia but also as a guide for practitioners that takes them through a series of well-defined steps when making informed, consistent and efficient changes to their business processes.

Offering Development in the Restaurant Sector. A Comparison Between Customer Perceptions and Management Beliefs

The present study concentrates on a small – but important – area of marketing: offering development within the service sector, more exactly the restaurant sector. The empirical part of the study has been carried out in the Helsinki metropolitan area using six successful restaurants. First, a conceptual offering development model is developed based on how the management perceives the offering development processes. Second, customer perceptions of offerings and management beliefs about how the customers perceive the offerings are analysed. Finally, an extended offering development model is created based on the management perceptions (the first model) as well as on observed gaps between customer perceptions of offerings and management beliefs about the customer perceptions. The study reveals that customer perceptions and management beliefs are rather similar but also that some differences exist. These differences are taken into account in the extended offering development model (the second model). The empirical data was collected through interviews and surveys. All together 393 customers and 14 managers participated in the study. The study suggests that successful offering development has to be closely connected with the general strategy of the company. A shared vision within the company in combination with a systematic strategic offering development process create a sound basis for the practical development work. The main contribution of the study is the extended offering development model forming a framework for further studies within the area.

Customer asset management in action: using customers portfolio for allocating resources across business-to-business relationships for improved shareholder value

Suvi Nenonen Customer asset management in action: using customer portfolios for allocating resources across business-to-business relationships for improved shareholder value Customers are crucial assets to all firms as customers are the ultimate source of all cash flows. Regardless this financial importance of customer relationships, for decades there has been a lack of suitable frameworks explaining how customer relationships contribute to the firm financial performance and how this contribution can be actively managed. In order to facilitate a better understanding of the customer asset, contemporary marketing has investigated the use of financial theories and asset management practices in the customer relationship context. Building on this, marketing academics have promoted the customer lifetime value concept as a solution for valuating and managing customer relationships for optimal financial outcomes. However, the empirical investigation of customer asset management lags behind the conceptual development steps taken. Additionally, the practitioners have not embraced the use of customer lifetime value in guiding managerial decisions - especially in the business-to-business context. The thesis points out that there are fundamental differences between customer relationships and investment instruments as investment targets, effectively eliminating the possibility to use financial theories in a customer relationships context or to optimize the customer base as a single investment portfolio. As an alternative, the thesis proposes the use of customer portfolio approach for allocating resources across the customer base for improved shareholder value. In the customer portfolio approach, the customer base of a firm is divided into multiple portfolios based on customer relationships’ potential to contribute to the shareholder value creation. After this, customer management concepts are tailored to each customer portfolio, designed to improve the shareholder value in their own respect. Therefore, effective customer asset management with the customer portfolio approach necessitates that firms are able to manage multiple parallel customer management concepts, or business models, simultaneously. The thesis is one of the first empirical studies on customer asset management, bringing empirical evidence from multiple business-to-business case studies on how customer portfolio models can be formed, how customer portfolios can be managed, and how customer asset management has contributed to the firm financial performance.

Adaptation in triadic business relationship settings: A study in corporate travel management

ANNE HOLMA ADAPTATION IN TRIADIC BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP SETTINGS – A STUDY IN CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT Business-to-business relationships form complicated networks that function in an increasingly dynamic business environment. This study addresses the complexity of business relationships, both when it comes to the core phenomenon under investigation, adaptation, and the structural context of the research, a triadic relationship setting. In business research, adaptation is generally regarded as a dyadic phenomenon, even though it is well recognised that dyads do not exist isolated from the wider network. The triadic approach to business relationships is especially relevant in cases where an intermediary is involved, and where all three actors are directly connected with each other. However, only a few business studies apply the triadic approach. In this study, the three dyadic relationships in triadic relationship settings are investigated in the context of the other two dyads to which each is connected. The focus is on the triads as such, and on the connections between its actors. Theoretically, the study takes its stand in relationship marketing. The study integrates theories and concepts from two approaches, the industrial network approach by the Industrial marketing and purchasing group, and the Service marketing and management approach by the Nordic School. Sociological theories are used to understand the triadic relationship setting. The empirical context of the study is corporate travel management. The study is a retrospective case study, where the data is collected by in-depth interviews with key informants from an industrial enterprise and its travel agency and service supplier partners. The main theoretical contribution of the study concerns opening a new research area in relationship marketing by investigating adaptation in business relationships with a new perspective, and in a new context. This study provides a comprehensive framework to analyse adaptation in triadic business relationship settings. The analysis framework was created with the help of a systematic combining approach, which is based on abductive logic and continuous iteration between the theory and the case study results. The framework describes how adaptations initiate, and how they progress. The framework also takes into account how adaptations spread in triadic relationship settings, i.e. how adaptations attain all three actors of the triad. Furthermore, the framework helps to investigate the outcomes of the adaptations for individual firms, for dyadic relationships, and for the triads. The study also provides concepts and classification that can be used when evaluating adaptation and relationship development in both dyadic and triadic relationships.

Customer asset management in action: using customers portfolio for allocating resources across business-to-business relationships for improved shareholder value

Suvi Nenonen Customer asset management in action: using customer portfolios for allocating resources across business-to-business relationships for improved shareholder value Customers are crucial assets to all firms as customers are the ultimate source of all cash flows. Regardless this financial importance of customer relationships, for decades there has been a lack of suitable frameworks explaining how customer relationships contribute to the firm financial performance and how this contribution can be actively managed. In order to facilitate a better understanding of the customer asset, contemporary marketing has investigated the use of financial theories and asset management practices in the customer relationship context. Building on this, marketing academics have promoted the customer lifetime value concept as a solution for valuating and managing customer relationships for optimal financial outcomes. However, the empirical investigation of customer asset management lags behind the conceptual development steps taken. Additionally, the practitioners have not embraced the use of customer lifetime value in guiding managerial decisions - especially in the business-to-business context. The thesis points out that there are fundamental differences between customer relationships and investment instruments as investment targets, effectively eliminating the possibility to use financial theories in a customer relationships context or to optimize the customer base as a single investment portfolio. As an alternative, the thesis proposes the use of customer portfolio approach for allocating resources across the customer base for improved shareholder value. In the customer portfolio approach, the customer base of a firm is divided into multiple portfolios based on customer relationships’ potential to contribute to the shareholder value creation. After this, customer management concepts are tailored to each customer portfolio, designed to improve the shareholder value in their own respect. Therefore, effective customer asset management with the customer portfolio approach necessitates that firms are able to manage multiple parallel customer management concepts, or business models, simultaneously. The thesis is one of the first empirical studies on customer asset management, bringing empirical evidence from multiple business-to-business case studies on how customer portfolio models can be formed, how customer portfolios can be managed, and how customer asset management has contributed to the firm financial performance.

The Nature and Change of Bonds in Industrial Business Relationships

A focus on cooperative industrial business relationships has become increasingly important in studies of industrial relationships. If the relationships between companies are strong it is usually a sign that companies will cooperate for a longer time and that may affect companies’ competitive and financial strength positively. As a result the bonds between companies become more important. This is due to the fact that bonds are building blocks of relationships and thus affect the stability in the cooperation between companies. Bond strength affect relationship strength. A framework regarding how bonds develop and change in an industrial business relationship has been developed in the study. Episodes affect the bonds in the relationship strengthening or weakening the bonds in the relationship or preserving status quo. Routine or critical episodes may lead to the strengthening or weakening of bonds as well as the preservation of status quo. The method used for analyzing bond strength trying to grasp the nature and change of bonds was invented by systematically following the elements of the definitions of bonds. A system with tables was drawn up in order to find out if the bond was weak, of medium strength or strong. Bonds are important regulators of industrial business relationships. By influencing the bonds one may have possibilities to strengthen or weaken the business relationship. Strengthen the business relationship in order to increase business and revenue and weaken the relationship in order to terminate business where the revenue is low or where there may be other problems in the relationship. By measuring the strength of different bonds it can be possible to strengthen weak bonds in order to strengthen the relationship. By using bond management it is possible to strategically strengthen or weaken the bonds between the cooperating companies in order to strengthen the cooperation and tie the customer or supplier to the company or weaken the cooperation in order to terminate the relationship. The instrument for the management of bonds is to use the created bond audit in order to know which bonds resources should be focused on in order to increase or decrease their strength.