The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

Distributed Load Control in Multiphase Radial Networks

The current power grid is on the cusp of modernization due to the emergence of distributed generation and controllable loads, as well as renewable energy. On one hand, distributed and renewable generation is volatile and difficult to dispatch. On the other hand, controllable loads provide significant potential for compensating for the uncertainties. In a future grid where there are thousands or millions of controllable loads and a large portion of the generation comes from volatile sources like wind and solar, distributed control that shifts or reduces the power consumption of electric loads in a reliable and economic way would be highly valuable.

Load control needs to be conducted with network awareness. Otherwise, voltage violations and overloading of circuit devices are likely. To model these effects, network power flows and voltages have to be considered explicitly. However, the physical laws that determine power flows and voltages are nonlinear. Furthermore, while distributed generation and controllable loads are mostly located in distribution networks that are multiphase and radial, most of the power flow studies focus on single-phase networks.

This thesis focuses on distributed load control in multiphase radial distribution networks. In particular, we first study distributed load control without considering network constraints, and then consider network-aware distributed load control.

Distributed implementation of load control is the main challenge if network constraints can be ignored. In this case, we first ignore the uncertainties in renewable generation and load arrivals, and propose a distributed load control algorithm, Algorithm 1, that optimally schedules the deferrable loads to shape the net electricity demand. Deferrable loads refer to loads whose total energy consumption is fixed, but energy usage can be shifted over time in response to network conditions. Algorithm 1 is a distributed gradient decent algorithm, and empirically converges to optimal deferrable load schedules within 15 iterations.

We then extend Algorithm 1 to a real-time setup where deferrable loads arrive over time, and only imprecise predictions about future renewable generation and load are available at the time of decision making. The real-time algorithm Algorithm 2 is based on model-predictive control: Algorithm 2 uses updated predictions on renewable generation as the true values, and computes a pseudo load to simulate future deferrable load. The pseudo load consumes 0 power at the current time step, and its total energy consumption equals the expectation of future deferrable load total energy request.

Network constraints, e.g., transformer loading constraints and voltage regulation constraints, bring significant challenge to the load control problem since power flows and voltages are governed by nonlinear physical laws. Remarkably, distribution networks are usually multiphase and radial. Two approaches are explored to overcome this challenge: one based on convex relaxation and the other that seeks a locally optimal load schedule.

To explore the convex relaxation approach, a novel but equivalent power flow model, the branch flow model, is developed, and a semidefinite programming relaxation, called BFM-SDP, is obtained using the branch flow model. BFM-SDP is mathematically equivalent to a standard convex relaxation proposed in the literature, but numerically is much more stable. Empirical studies show that BFM-SDP is numerically exact for the IEEE 13-, 34-, 37-, 123-bus networks and a real-world 2065-bus network, while the standard convex relaxation is numerically exact for only two of these networks.

Theoretical guarantees on the exactness of convex relaxations are provided for two types of networks: single-phase radial alternative-current (AC) networks, and single-phase mesh direct-current (DC) networks. In particular, for single-phase radial AC networks, we prove that a second-order cone program (SOCP) relaxation is exact if voltage upper bounds are not binding; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact. For single-phase mesh DC networks, we prove that an SOCP relaxation is exact if 1) voltage upper bounds are not binding, or 2) voltage upper bounds are uniform and power injection lower bounds are strictly negative; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact.

To seek a locally optimal load schedule, a distributed gradient-decent algorithm, Algorithm 9, is proposed. The suboptimality gap of the algorithm is rigorously characterized and close to 0 for practical networks. Furthermore, unlike the convex relaxation approach, Algorithm 9 ensures a feasible solution. The gradients used in Algorithm 9 are estimated based on a linear approximation of the power flow, which is derived with the following assumptions: 1) line losses are negligible; and 2) voltages are reasonably balanced. Both assumptions are satisfied in practical distribution networks. Empirical results show that Algorithm 9 obtains 70+ times speed up over the convex relaxation approach, at the cost of a suboptimality within numerical precision.

Determination of Power System Response during Small Load Fluctuations

This paper proposes a calculation method to determine power system response during small load perturbations or minor disturbances. The method establishes the initial value of active power transient using traditional reduction technique on admittance matrix, which incorporates voltage variations in the determination. The method examines active power distribution among generators when several loads simultaneously change, and verifies that the superposition principle is applicable for this scenario. The theoretical derivation provided in the paper is validated by numerical simulations using a 3-generator 9-bus benchmark model. The results indicate that the inclusion of voltage variation renders an independent and precise measure of active power response during transient conditions.

Improving fuel economy application of the organic Rankine Cycle on a hybrid bus

Globally vehicle operators are experiencing rising fuel costs and increased
running expenses as governments around the world attempt to decrease carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel consumption, due to global warming and the drive to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. Recent advances in hybrid vehicle design have made great strides towards more efficient operation, with regenerative braking being widely used to capture otherwise lost energy. In this paper a hybrid series bus is developed a step further, by installing another method of energy capture on the vehicle. In this case, it is in the form of the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC). The waste heat expelled to the exhaust and coolant streams is recovered and converted to electrical energy which is then stored in the hybrid vehicles batteries. The electrical energy can then be used for the auxiliary power circuit or to assist in vehicle propulsion, thus reducing the load on the engine, thereby improving the overall fuel economy of the vehicle and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Voltage Analysis and Load Curtailment Minimization in Sub-transmission Networks with Distributed Generation

Most of distributed generation and smart grid research works are dedicated to network operation parameters studies, reliability, etc. However, many of these works normally uses traditional test systems, for instance, IEEE test systems. This paper proposes voltage magnitude and reliability studies in presence of fault conditions, considering realistic conditions found in countries like Brazil. The methodology considers a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models and a remedial action algorithm which is based on optimal power flow. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the paper includes a case study that considers a real 12-bus sub-transmission network.

Assessment of Energy Conservation in Indian Cement Industry and Forecasting of Co2 Emissions

Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries

Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

Uma fonte chaveada de 50kW com correção de fator de potência para alimentação de uma tocha de plasma Indutiva utilizando técnicas de controle digital

This work deals with the development of an experimental study on a power supply of high frequency that provides the toch plasmica to be implemented in PLASPETRO project, which consists of two static converters developed by using Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). The drivers used to control these keys are triggered by Digital Signal Processor (DSP) through optical fibers to reduce problems with electromagnetic interference (EMI). The first stage consists of a pre-regulator in the form of an AC to DC converter with three-phase boost power factor correction which is the main theme of this work, while the second is the source of high frequency itself. A series-resonant inverter consists of four (4) cell inverters operating in a frequency around 115 kHz each one in soft switching mode, alternating itself to supply the load (plasma torch) an alternating current with a frequency of 450 kHz. The first stage has the function of providing the series-resonant inverter a DC voltage, with the value controlled from the power supply provided by the electrical system of the utility, and correct the power factor of the system as a whole. This level of DC bus voltage at the output of the first stage will be used to control the power transferred by the inverter to the load, and it may vary from 550 VDC to a maximum of 800 VDC. To control the voltage level of DC bus driver used a proportional integral (PI) controller and to achieve the unity power factor it was used two other proportional integral currents controllers. Computational simulations were performed to assist in sizing and forecasting performance. All the control and communications needed to stage supervisory were implemented on a DSP

Artificial neural networks for load flow and external equivalents studies

In this paper an artificial neural network (ANN) based methodology is proposed for (a) solving the basic load flow, (b) solving the load flow considering the reactive power limits of generation (PV) buses, (c) determining a good quality load flow starting point for ill-conditioned systems, and (d) computing static external equivalent circuits. An analysis of the input data required as well as the ANN architecture is presented. A multilayer perceptron trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt second order method is used. The proposed methodology was tested with the IEEE 30- and 57-bus, and an ill-conditioned 11-bus system. Normal operating conditions (base case) and several contingency situations including different load and generation scenarios have been considered. Simulation results show the excellent performance of the ANN for solving problems (a)-(d). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influences of the load centre of gravity on heavy vehicle acceleration

The aim of this paper is to analyse the influence of the load centre of gravity on heavy vehicle acceleration. This analysis is done through a method in which a vehicle centre of gravity map is used. A model for the driving force is presented for bus, truck and tractor-semi trailer combinations. The proposed model takes into consideration the resistance forces (drag, rolling resistance, translation and rotation acceleration, climbing resistance) and the 4 X 2 traction system. The positions of the vehicle centre of gravity as a function of the position of the load centre of gravity are determined. The vehicle acceleration is calculated based on the position of the load centre of gravity. This study analyses the acceleration of one of the Mercedes-Benz do Brasil tractor-semitrailer vehicle. A comparison of the acceleration for different maximum adhesion coefficients and ramps are presented, showing new results. An example showing the variations of the load centre of gravity position with the acceleration time and distance is provided. The load centre of gravity position is important for vehicle safety and the efficiency and economy in the transportation of the load.

Previsão de Preço (LMP) por Redes GRNN

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

3-Phase Rectifier System with very demanding dynamic load: Architecture analysis and control strategy

A distributed power architecture for aerospace application with very restrictive specifications is analyzed. Parameters as volume, weight and losses are analyzed for the considered power architectures. In order to protect the 3 phase generator against high load steps, an intermediate bus (based in a high capacitance) to provide energy to the loads during the high load steps is included. Prototypes of the selected architecture for the rectifier and EMI filter are built and the energy control is validated.

Improving photovoltaics grid integration through short time forecasting and self-consumption

The uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation is a major drawback for the widespread introduction of this technology into electricity grids. This uncertainty is a challenge in the design and operation of electrical systems that include photovoltaic generation. Demand-Side Management (DSM) techniques are widely used to modify energy consumption. If local photovoltaic generation is available, DSM techniques can use generation forecast to schedule the local consumption. On the other hand, local storage systems can be used to separate electricity availability from instantaneous generation; therefore, the effects of forecast error in the electrical system are reduced. The effects of uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation in a residential electrical system equipped with DSM techniques and a local storage system are analyzed in this paper. The study has been performed in a solar house that is able to displace a residential user?s load pattern, manage local storage and estimate forecasts of electricity generation. A series of real experiments and simulations have carried out on the house. The results of this experiments show that the use of Demand Side Management (DSM) and local storage reduces to 2% the uncertainty on the energy exchanged with the grid. In the case that the photovoltaic system would operate as a pure electricity generator feeding all generated electricity into grid, the uncertainty would raise to around 40%.

A model for setting services on auxiliary bus lines under congestion

In this paper, a mathematical programming model and a heuristically derived solution is described to assist with the efficient planning of services for a set of auxiliary bus lines (a bus-bridging system) during disruptions of metro and rapid transit lines. The model can be considered static and takes into account the average flows of passengers over a given period of time (i.e., the peak morning traffic hour) Auxiliary bus services must accommodate very high demand levels, and the model presented is able to take into account the operation of a bus-bridging system under congested conditions. A general analysis of the congestion in public transportation lines is presented, and the results are applied to the design of a bus-bridging system. A nonlinear integer mathematical programming model and a suitable approximation of this model are then formulated. This approximated model can be solved by a heuristic procedure that has been shown to be computationally viable. The output of the model is as follows: (a) the number of bus units to assign to each of the candidate lines of the bus-bridging system; (b) the routes to be followed by users passengers of each of the origin–destination pairs; (c) the operational conditions of the components of the bus-bridging system, including the passenger load of each of the line segments, the degree of saturation of the bus stops relative to their bus input flows, the bus service times at bus stops and the passenger waiting times at bus stops. The model is able to take into account bounds with regard to the maximum number of passengers waiting at bus stops and the space available at bus stops for the queueing of bus units. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the model with two realistic test cases: a railway corridor in Madrid and a metro line in Barcelona Planificación de los servicios de lineas auxiliares de autobuses durante las incidencias de las redes de metro y cercanías. El modelo estudia el problema bajo condiciones de alta demanda y condiciones de congestión. El modelo no lineal resultante es resuelto mediante heurísticas que demuestran su utilidad. Se demuestran los resultados en dos corredores de las ciudades de Barcelona y Madrid.