An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

Valoração econômica das perdas de nutrientes por erosão em cana-de-açúcar

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Aplicação de redes neurais em análise de viabilidade econômica de co-geração de energia elétrica

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Pesos de abate e uréia protegida na dieta de terminação em confinamento de bovinos Nelore não castrados

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise econômica do milho em sucessão a diferentes adubos verdes, manejos do solo e doses de nitrogênio

Technologies that increase crop yields are possible when providing profitability to the producer. The objective of this study was to evaluate production costs and profitability of maize in production systems in Cerrado. The study was conducted in Selviria (Mato Grosso do Sul State), Brazil, in the years 2009/10 and 2010/11. The experiment was arranged in randomized blocks with four replications in factorial and mixed with tracks. We established 36 treatments, three green manures (Pennisetum glaucum, Crotalaria juncea and intercropping Pennisetum glaucum + Crotalaria juncea), three soil management practices (no-tillage system, "heavy disking" + "levelling disking" and "chisel plow" + "levelling disking") and four doses of N (0, 60, 90 and 120 kg ha(-1)). For economic analysis were estimated operational cost, the gross revenue obtained by the product of the productivity of the treatments and the value of corn (R$ 0,417 kg or R$ 25,00 sc(-1)) and the ratio revenue / cost of treatment. Whereas higher values (revenue/cost > 1) and lower (revenue/cost ratio < 1) as a parameter in the analysis of profitability, it can be concluded that corn under no-tillage had the highest profitability in succession to Pennisetum glaucum growing profitability with increasing N rates, in succession to Crotalaria juncea and in the absence of nitrogen application on the coverage achieved higher profitability compared to other treatments and in succession to the consortium Pennisetum glaucum + Crotalaria juncea doses of N was between 50 and 55 kg ha(-1) offer greater profitability to the cultivation of corn.

Balanço econômico da operação de semeadura da cultura da soja em diferentes arranjos espaciais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Eficiência operacional, econômica e agronômica da inoculação de soja via sulco de semeadura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Aircraft selection with DEA's triple index: an approach for sustainability

The objective of this paper is to present a benefit-cost ranking of 127 civil transport aircraft; this ranking was determined considering a new data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, called triple index, which combines three assessment methods: 1) standard frontier, 2) inverted index; 3) cross-multiplicative index. The analysis used the following inputs: a) market price; b) direct operating costs; and as outputs: a) payload, b) cruise speed; c) maximum rate of climb with a single engine. To ensure the homogeneity of the units, the aircrafts were divided according to the propulsion system (jet and turboprop) and size (regional, narrow-body and wide-body); they were also evaluated according to different ranges in order to identify the aircraft with the best cost-benefit relationship for each option.

A METHODOLOGY TO EVALUATE OBSOLETE INVENTORY IN HEALTH CARE

Many organizations are currently facing inventory management problems such as distributing inventory on-time and maintain the correct inventory levels to satisfy the customer or end users. Organizations understand the need for maintaining the accurate inventory levels but sometimes fall short leading a wide performance gap in maintaining inventory accurately. The inventory inaccuracy can consume much of the investment on purchasing inventory and many times leads to excessive inventory. The research objective of thesis is to provide a decision making criteria to the management for closing or maintaining the warehouse based on basic purchasing and holding cost information. The specific objectives provide information regarding the impact of inventory carrying cost, obsolete inventory, inventory turns. The methodology section explains about the carrying cost ratio that would help inventory managers to adopt best practices to avoid obsolete inventory and also reduce excessive inventory levels. The research model was helpful in providing a decision making criteria based on the performance metric developed. This research model and performance metric had been validated by analysis of warehouse data and results indicated a shift from two-echelon inventory supply chain to a one-echelon or Just In Time (JIT) based inventory supply chain. The recommendations from the case study were used by a health care organization to reorganize the supply chain resulting in the reduction of excessive inventory.

Economic analysis for oregano under irrigation considering economic risk factors

The oregano is a plant, rich in essential oil and very used as spice in the preparation of foods. The objective of this paper was to analyze the viability of irrigation for oregano in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo state, Brazil, including economic risk factors, their effect on irrigation total cost, as well as the different pumping kinds. The Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to study the economic factors: fixed cost, labor, maintenance, pumping and water. The use of irrigation for the oregano in the region of Presidente Prudente is indicated because of its economic feasibility and the reduced risks. The average values of the benefit/cost for all water depths tested were higher than 1, indicating viability. The use of irrigation promoted lower risks compared to the non irrigated crop. The micro irrigation system presented greater sensitivity to changes of prices of the equipment associated to the variation of the useful life of the system. The oregano selling price was the most important factor involved in annual net profit. The water cost was the factor of lesser influence on the total cost. Due to the characteristic of high drip irrigation frequency there was no difference between the tariffs based in use hour of electric energy classified as green and blue, which are characterized by applying different rates on the energy consumption and demand according to the hours of day and times of the year. For the studied region it was recommended drip irrigation water management of oregano with the daily application of 100% of pan evaporation Class A using electric motor with tariffs blue or green.

Explaining the Growth in Municipal Recycling Programs: The Role of Market and Non-Market Factors

The implementation of thousands of municipal recycling programs in the United States has increased recycling’s portion of solid waste from 10% to 30% over the past decade. But the lack of accurate data has spurred a debate over whether the growth in recycling can be attributed to market or nonmarket factors. To address this issue, this article conducts a benefit-cost analysis of a municipal recycling program. Results suggest recycling is costly. So why, then, does it remain popular? This article suggests that local governments could be responding to households that perceive a benefit from recycling services. These benefits are estimated with a contingent valuation survey.

HCV-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis: randomized controlled trial of pegylated interferon alpha-2a and ribavirin

In patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, 30% of sustained HCV clearance has been reported with pegylated interferon alpha-2a (PEG-IFN) alone, but the efficacy and tolerability of the PEG-IFN/ribavirin (RBV) combination remain poorly defined. A total of 124 treatment-naïve patients with biopsy proved HCV-related advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis (Ishak score F4-F6, Child-Pugh score < or =7) were randomized to 48 weeks of PEG-IFN (180 microg sc weekly) and standard dose of RBV (1000/1200 mg po daily, STD) or PEG-IFN (180 microg sc weekly) and low-dose of RBV (600/800 mg po daily, LOW). Sustained virologic response (SVR) rates with PEG-IFN/STD RBV (52%) were higher--albeit not significantly--than that with PEG-IFN/LOW RBV (38%, P = 0.153). In multivariate analysis, genotype 2/3 and a baseline platelet count > or =150 x 10(9)/L were independently associated with SVR. The likelihood of SVR was < 7% if viraemia had not declined by > or =2 log or to undetectable levels after 12 weeks. Nine adverse events in the STD RBV and 15 in the LOW RBV group were classified as severe (including two deaths); dose reductions for intolerance were required in 78% and 57% (P = 0.013), and treatment was terminated early in 23% and 27% of patients (P = n.s.). The benefit/risk ratio of treating compensated HCV-cirrhotics with STD PEG-IFN/RBV is favourable.

Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were "testing and culling of seropositive female cattle", "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows", "chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring" and "vaccination of all female cattle". Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years. The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be euro 9.7 million euros. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit-cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): "Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows" (BCR=1.29, NPV=25 million euros ) and "chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring" (BCR=2.95, NPV=59 million euros). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows".

Current management of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: New treatment modalities have become increasingly popular for the treatment of acute thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura. Widespread availability of ADAMTS13 assays resulted in the increased recognition of patients with hereditary thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura and specific issues related to acquired ADAMTS13 deficiency. These new aspects with implications on management of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura patients are reviewed here. RECENT FINDINGS: Today, plasma exchange with the replacement of fresh frozen plasma is still the treatment of choice in acute thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura. The finding of circulating anti-ADAMTS13 autoantibodies in the majority of patients constitutes the rationale for the concomitant administration of immunosuppressive drugs. Rituximab seems to have a favorable benefit-risk ratio in plasma-refractory and relapsing thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura; however, long-term follow-up data are not yet available. Constitutively lacking ADAMTS13 in hereditary thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura can be supplemented by simple plasma infusions. Severe acquired ADAMTS13 deficiency either at presentation or in remission identifies patients at a particularly high risk of relapse. SUMMARY: Despite progress in understanding the pathophysiology of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, acute bouts as well as relapses still represent serious health threats to patients and rapid initiation of plasma exchange is mandatory. Large randomized clinical trials, however, need to determine whether new treatment modalities are superior to standard plasma exchange.