965 resultados para Bayesian p-values


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The objective of this work was to evaluate an inventory method efficiency for ants. We used subsamples collected in 24 transects of 100 m, distributed in 6 plots of 600 ha each in primary forest, as part of a long-term project. Ten litter subsamples were extracted per transect using Winkler extractors. Ants were identified to genus level, and Crematogaster, Gnamptogenys and Pachycondyla genera to species/morphospecies level. To evaluate the consequences of reduced sampling on the retention of ecological information, we estimated the lowest number of subsamples needed to detect the effects of environmental variables. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) was used to generate dissimilarity matrices, and Mantel correlations between each reduced-sampling effort and maximum effort were used as an index of how much information was maintained and could still be used in multivariate analyses. Lower p-values was observed on the effect of soil pH in the community of genera, and on the effect of the litter volume for the community of Crematogaster. The trend was still detectable in the analysis based on reduced-sampling. The number of subsamples can be reduced, and the cost-efficiency of the protocol can be improved with little loss of information.

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Purpose: More than five hundred million direct dental restorations are placed each year worldwide. In about 55% of the cases, resin composites or compomers are used, and in 45% amalgam. The longevity of posterior resin restorations is well documented. However, data on resin composites that are placed without enamel/dentin conditioning and resin composites placed with self-etching adhesive systems are missing. Material and Methods: The database SCOPUS was searched for clinical trials on posterior resin composites without restricting the search to the year of publication. The inclusion criteria were: (1) prospective clinical trial with at least 2 years of observation; (2) minimum number of restorations at last recall = 20; (3) report on dropout rate; (4) report of operative technique and materials used; (5) utilization of Ryge or modified Ryge evaluation criteria. For amalgam, only those studies were included that directly compared composite resin restorations with amalgam. For the statistical analysis, a linear mixed model was used with random effects to account for the heterogeneity between the studies. P-values under 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Of the 373 clinical trials, 59 studies met the inclusion criteria. In 70% of the studies, Class II and Class I restorations had been placed. The overall success rate of composite resin restorations was about 90% after 10 years, which was not different from that of amalgam. Restorations with compomers had a significantly lower longevity. The main reason for replacement were bulk fractures and caries adjacent to restorations. Both of these incidents were infrequent in most studies and accounted only for about 6% of all replaced restorations after 10 years. Restorations with macrofilled composites and compomer suffered significantly more loss of anatomical form than restorations with other types of material. Restorations that were placed without enamel acid etching and a dentin bonding agent showed significantly more marginal staining and detectable margins compared to those restorations placed using the enamel-etch or etch-and-rinse technique; restorations with self-etching systems were between the other groups. Restorations with compomer suffered significantly more chippings (repairable fracture) than restorations with other materials, which did not statistically differ among each other. Restorations that were placed with a rubber-dam showed significantly fewer material fractures that needed replacement, and this also had a significant effect on the overall longevity. Conclusion: Restorations with hybrid and microfilled composites that were placed with the enamel-etching technique and rubber-dam showed the best overall performance; the longevity of these restorations was similar to amalgam restorations. Compomer restorations, restorations placed with macrofilled composites, and resin restorations with no-etching or self-etching adhesives demonstrated significant shortcomings and shorter longevity.

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Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are conducted with the promise to discover novel genetic variants associated with diverse traits. For most traits, associated markers individually explain just a modest fraction of the phenotypic variation, but their number can well be in the hundreds. We developed a maximum likelihood method that allows us to infer the distribution of associated variants even when many of them were missed by chance. Compared to previous approaches, the novelty of our method is that it (a) does not require having an independent (unbiased) estimate of the effect sizes; (b) makes use of the complete distribution of P-values while allowing for the false discovery rate; (c) takes into account allelic heterogeneity and the SNP pruning strategy. We applied our method to the latest GWAS meta-analysis results of the GIANT consortium. It revealed that while the explained variance of genome-wide (GW) significant SNPs is around 1% for waist-hip ratio (WHR), the observed P-values provide evidence for the existence of variants explaining 10% (CI=[8.5-11.5%]) of the phenotypic variance in total. Similarly, the total explained variance likely to exist for height is estimated to be 29% (CI=[28-30%]), three times higher than what the observed GW significant SNPs give rise to. This methodology also enables us to predict the benefit of future GWA studies that aim to reveal more associated genetic markers via increased sample size.

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OBJECTIVES: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS: For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION: Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

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Congenital heart defect (CHD) occurs in 40% of Down syndrome (DS) cases. While carrying three copies of chromosome 21 increases the risk for CHD, trisomy 21 itself is not sufficient to cause CHD. Thus, additional genetic variation and/or environmental factors could contribute to the CHD risk. Here we report genomic variations that in concert with trisomy 21, determine the risk for CHD in DS. This case-control GWAS includes 187 DS with CHD (AVSD = 69, ASD = 53, VSD = 65) as cases, and 151 DS without CHD as controls. Chromosome 21-specific association studies revealed rs2832616 and rs1943950 as CHD risk alleles (adjusted genotypic P-values <0.05). These signals were confirmed in a replication cohort of 92 DS-CHD cases and 80 DS-without CHD (nominal P-value 0.0022). Furthermore, CNV analyses using a customized chromosome 21 aCGH of 135K probes in 55 DS-AVSD and 53 DS-without CHD revealed three CNV regions associated with AVSD risk (FDR ≤ 0.05). Two of these regions that are located within the previously identified CHD region on chromosome 21 were further confirmed in a replication study of 49 DS-AVSD and 45 DS- without CHD (FDR ≤ 0.05). One of these CNVs maps near the RIPK4 gene, and the second includes the ZBTB21 (previously ZNF295) gene, highlighting the potential role of these genes in the pathogenesis of CHD in DS. We propose that the genetic architecture of the CHD risk of DS is complex and includes trisomy 21, and SNP and CNV variations in chromosome 21. In addition, a yet-unidentified genetic variation in the rest of the genome may contribute to this complex genetic architecture.

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Recent evidence suggests the human auditory system is organized,like the visual system, into a ventral 'what' pathway, devoted toidentifying objects and a dorsal 'where' pathway devoted to thelocalization of objects in space w1x. Several brain regions have beenidentified in these two different pathways, but until now little isknown about the temporal dynamics of these regions. We investigatedthis issue using 128-channel auditory evoked potentials(AEPs).Stimuli were stationary sounds created by varying interaural timedifferences and environmental real recorded sounds. Stimuli ofeach condition (localization, recognition) were presented throughearphones in a blocked design, while subjects determined theirposition or meaning, respectively.AEPs were analyzed in terms of their topographical scalp potentialdistributions (segmentation maps) and underlying neuronalgenerators (source estimation) w2x.Fourteen scalp potential distributions (maps) best explained theentire data set.Ten maps were nonspecific (associated with auditory stimulationin general), two were specific for sound localization and two werespecific for sound recognition (P-values ranging from 0.02 to0.045).Condition-specific maps appeared at two distinct time periods:;200 ms and ;375-550 ms post-stimulus.The brain sources associated with the maps specific for soundlocalization were mainly situated in the inferior frontal cortices,confirming previous findings w3x. The sources associated withsound recognition were predominantly located in the temporal cortices,with a weaker activation in the frontal cortex.The data show that sound localization and sound recognitionengage different brain networks that are apparent at two distincttime periods.References1. Maeder et al. Neuroimage 2001.2. Michel et al. Brain Research Review 2001.3. Ducommun et al. Neuroimage 2002.

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Objectives: Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) is an attractive method for assessing fracture risk because it is portable, inexpensive, without ionizing radiation, and available in areas of the world where DXA is not readily accessible or affordable. However, the diversity of QUS scanners and variability of fracture outcomes measured in different studies is an important obstacle to widespread utilisation of QUS for fracture risk assessment. We aimed in this review to assess the predictive power of heel QUS for fractures considering different characteristics of the association (QUS parameters and fracture outcomes measured, QUS devices, study populations, and independence from DXA-measured bone density).Materials/Methods : We conducted an inverse-variance randomeffects meta-analysis of prospective studies with heel QUS measures at baseline and fracture outcomes in their follow-up. Relative risks (RR) per standard deviation (SD) of different QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA], speed of sound &SOS;, stiffness index &SI;, and quantitative ultrasound index [QUI]) for various fracture outcomes (hip, vertebral, any clinical, any osteoporotic, and major osteoporotic fractures) were reported based on study questions.Results : 21 studies including 55,164 women and 13,742 men were included with a total follow-up of 279,124 person-years. All four QUS parameters were associated with risk of different fractures. For instance, RR of hip fracture for 1 SD decrease of BUA was 1.69 (95% CI 1.43-2.00), SOS was 1.96 (95% CI 1.64-2.34), SI was 2.26 (95%CI 1.71-2.99), and QUI was 1.99 (95% CI 1.49-2.67). Validated devices from different manufacturers predicted fracture risks with a similar performance (meta-regression p-values>0.05 for difference of devices). There was no sign of publication bias among the studies. QUS measures predicted fracture with a similar performance in men and women. Meta-analysis of studies with QUS measures adjusted for hip DXA showed a significant and independent association with fracture risk (RR/SD for BUA =1.34 [95%CI 1.22-1.49]).Conclusions : This study confirms that QUS of the heel using validated devices predicts risk of different fracture outcomes in elderly men and women. Further research and international collaborations are needed for standardisation of QUS parameters across various manufacturers and inclusion of QUS in fracture risk assessment tools. Disclosure of Interest : None declared.

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There is currently a considerable diversity of quantitative measures available for summarizing the results in single-case studies. Given that the interpretation of some of them is difficult due to the lack of established benchmarks, the current paper proposes an approach for obtaining further numerical evidence on the importance of the results, complementing the substantive criteria, visual analysis, and primary summary measures. This additional evidence consists of obtaining the statistical significance of the outcome when referred to the corresponding sampling distribution. This sampling distribution is formed by the values of the outcomes (expressed as data nonoverlap, R-squared, etc.) in case the intervention is ineffective. The approach proposed here is intended to offer the outcome"s probability of being as extreme when there is no treatment effect without the need for some assumptions that cannot be checked with guarantees. Following this approach, researchers would compare their outcomes to reference values rather than constructing the sampling distributions themselves. The integration of single-case studies is problematic, when different metrics are used across primary studies and not all raw data are available. Via the approach for assigning p values it is possible to combine the results of similar studies regardless of the primary effect size indicator. The alternatives for combining probabilities are discussed in the context of single-case studies pointing out two potentially useful methods one based on a weighted average and the other on the binomial test.

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OBJECTIVES: This is the first meta-analysis on the efficacy of composite resin restorations in anterior teeth. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to verify whether specific material classes, tooth conditioning methods and operational procedures influence the result for Class III and Class IV restorations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The database SCOPUS and PubMed were searched for clinical trials on anterior resin composites without restricting the search to the year of publication. The inclusion criteria were: (1) prospective clinical trial with at least 2 years of observation; (2) minimal number of restorations at last recall=20; (3) report on drop-out rate; (4) report of operative technique and materials used in the trial, and (5) utilization of Ryge or modified Ryge evaluation criteria. For the statistical analysis, a linear mixed model was used with random effects to account for the heterogeneity between the studies. p-Values smaller than 0.05 were considered to be significant. RESULTS: Of the 84 clinical trials, 21 studies met the inclusion criteria, 14 of them for Class III restorations, 6 for Class IV restorations and 1 for closure of diastemata; the latter was included in the Class IV group. Twelve of the 21 studies started before 1991 and 18 before 2001. The estimated median overall success rate (without replacement) after 10 years for Class III composite resin restorations was 95% and for Class IV restorations 90%. The main reason for the replacement of Class IV restorations was bulk fractures, which occurred significantly more frequently with microfilled composites than with hybrid and macrofilled composites. Caries adjacent to restorations was infrequent in most studies and accounted only for about 2.5% of all replaced restorations after 10 years irrespective of the cavity class. Class III restorations with glass ionomer derivates suffered significantly more loss of anatomical form than did fillings with other types of material. When the enamel was acid-etched and no bonding agent was applied, significantly more restorations showed marginal staining and detectable margins compared to enamel etching with enamel bonding or the total etch technique; fillings with self-etching systems were in between of these two outcome variables. Bevelling of the enamel was associated with a significantly reduced deterioration of the anatomical form compared to no bevelling but not with less marginal staining or less detectable margins. The type of isolation (absolute/relative) had a statistically significant influence on marginal caries which, however, might be a random finding.

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OBJECTIVE: Systolic blood pressure (BP) has been associated with urinary caffeine and its metabolites such as paraxanthine and theophylline. Caffeine and caffeine metabolites could influence arterial pulse pressure (PP) via sympathomimetic effects, smooth muscle relaxation, and phosphodiesterase inhibition. The purpose of this analysis was to explore the association of ambulatory PP with urinary caffeine and its related metabolites in a large population-based sample. DESIGN AND METHOD: Families were randomly selected from the general population of three Swiss cities (2009-2013). Ambulatory BP monitoring was conducted using validated Diasys Integra devices. PP was defined as the difference between the systolic and diastolic ambulatory BP. Urinary caffeine, paraxanthine, theophylline, and theobromine excretions were measured in 24 h urine using ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Urinary excretions were log-transformed to satisfy regression assumptions. We used linear mixed models to explore the associations of urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolite excretions with 24-hour, day- and night-time PP while adjusting for major confounders. RESULTS: The 836 participants (48.9% men) included in this analysis had mean (±SD) age of 47.8 (±17.5), and mean 24-hour systolic and diastolic BP of 120.1 mmHg (±13.9) and 78.0 (±8.6). Except theobromine, log transformed urinary caffeine and caffeine metabolite excretions were associated negatively with 24-hour, daytime and night-time ambulatory PP. 24-hour, daytime, and night-time ambulatory PP decreased by -0.804 mmHg (SE, 0.209), -0.749 (0.215), and -0.968 (0.243) (all P values <0.005), for each doubling excretion of caffeine. Strong negative associations with night-time ambulatory PP were observed for paraxanthine and theophylline.(Figure is included in full-text article.) CONCLUSIONS: : The negative associations of PP with caffeine, paraxanthine, and theophylline excretions suggest that caffeine and its metabolites do lower BP, possibly by modifying arterial stiffness.

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BACKGROUND: Switzerland had the highest life expectancy at 82.8 years among the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in 2011. Geographical variation of life expectancy and its relation to the socioeconomic position of neighbourhoods are, however, not well understood. METHODS: We analysed the Swiss National Cohort, which linked the 2000 census with mortality records 2000-2008 to estimate life expectancy across neighbourhoods. A neighbourhood index of socioeconomic position (SEP) based on the median rent, education and occupation of household heads and crowding was calculated for 1.3 million overlapping neighbourhoods of 50 households. We used skew-normal regression models, including the index and additionally marital status, education, nationality, religion and occupation to calculate crude and adjusted estimates of life expectancy at age 30 years. RESULTS: Based on over 4.5 million individuals and over 400,000 deaths, estimates of life expectancy at age 30 in neighbourhoods ranged from 46.9 to 54.2 years in men and from 53.5 to 57.2 years in women. The correlation between life expectancy and neighbourhood SEP was strong (r=0.95 in men and r=0.94 women, both p values <0.0001). In a comparison of the lowest with the highest percentile of neighbourhood SEP, the crude difference in life expectancy from skew-normal regression was 4.5 years in men and 2.5 years in women. The corresponding adjusted differences were 2.8 and 1.9 years, respectively (all p values <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Although life expectancy is high in Switzerland, there is substantial geographical variation and life expectancy is strongly associated with the social standing of neighbourhoods.

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The goal of this study was to assess the localization and types of thrombosed plaques in cases of sudden cardiac death attributed to coronary artery disease and to evaluate possible correlations with body mass index (BMI) and increased heart weight. This retrospective study was performed on forensic cases for which the cause of death was attributed to coronary artery disease. A complete autopsy and a multi-phase postmortem computed tomography (CT) angiography (MPMCTA) were performed in all cases. Eighty-five cases were selected (mean age, 55.18 ± 11.04 years; 72 men and 13 women). MPMCTA performed prior to autopsy enabled an evaluation of coronary artery perfusion before dissection of the body and helped therefore to guide sampling for histology. An acute coronary thrombosis was found in 57 cases, which included plaque erosion in 26 cases (mean age, 46.73 ± 8.33 years) and rupture or intra-plaque hemorrhage in 31 cases (mean age, 58.23 ± 10.62 years). Erosions were most frequently found in the left anterior descending artery (61.5 %), while only 35.48 % of ruptures were observed in this artery. Chronic coronary pathology was considered as the main cause of death in 28 cases (mean age, 59.64 ± 9.47 years). Sixty-two of the cases (72.94 %) had a BMI in the overweight category (BMI ≥25), with the highest mean BMI in patients with chronic coronary pathology without acute thrombosis found at autopsy. The heart weight was above the predicted reference values in 52 cases (61.18 %). Our results are in accordance with previously published studies on the spatial distribution of vulnerable plaques. We observed a higher percentage of eroded plaques than previously reported. Patients with coronary erosions were significantly younger than those with plaque rupture or those without an acute coronary thrombosis (p values <0.0001). BMI and heart weight were significantly higher for cases without thrombosis in comparison with those with plaque rupture (p values 0.028 and 0.003, respectively). Our results indicating that increased BMI and overweight hearts are associated with chronic ischemic heart disease are compatible with clinical studies. Performing more postmortem studies on forensic autopsies, including modern radiological examinations with MPMCTA, can enhance the detection of vulnerable plaques in living patients and prevent sudden cardiac death.

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Integrating single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) p-values from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) across genes and pathways is a strategy to improve statistical power and gain biological insight. Here, we present Pascal (Pathway scoring algorithm), a powerful tool for computing gene and pathway scores from SNP-phenotype association summary statistics. For gene score computation, we implemented analytic and efficient numerical solutions to calculate test statistics. We examined in particular the sum and the maximum of chi-squared statistics, which measure the strongest and the average association signals per gene, respectively. For pathway scoring, we use a modified Fisher method, which offers not only significant power improvement over more traditional enrichment strategies, but also eliminates the problem of arbitrary threshold selection inherent in any binary membership based pathway enrichment approach. We demonstrate the marked increase in power by analyzing summary statistics from dozens of large meta-studies for various traits. Our extensive testing indicates that our method not only excels in rigorous type I error control, but also results in more biologically meaningful discoveries.

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BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have linked CYP17A1 coding for the steroid hormone synthesizing enzyme 17α-hydroxylase (CYP17A1) to blood pressure (BP). We hypothesized that the genetic signal may translate into a correlation of ambulatory BP (ABP) with apparent CYP17A1 activity in a family-based population study and estimated the heritability of CYP17A1 activity. METHODS: In the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension, day and night urinary excretions of steroid hormone metabolites were measured in 518 participants (220 men, 298 women), randomly selected from the general population. CYP17A1 activity was assessed by 2 ratios of urinary steroid metabolites: one estimating the combined 17α-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase activity (ratio 1) and the other predominantly 17α-hydroxylase activity (ratio 2). A mixed linear model was used to investigate the association of ABP with log-transformed CYP17A1 activities exploring effect modification by urinary sodium excretion. RESULTS: Daytime ABP was positively associated with ratio 1 under conditions of high, but not low urinary sodium excretion (P interaction <0.05). Ratio 2 was not associated with ABP. Heritability estimates (SE) for day and night CYP17A1 activities were 0.39 (0.10) and 0.40 (0.09) for ratio 1, and 0.71 (0.09) and 0.55 (0.09) for ratio 2 (P values <0.001). CYP17A1 activities, assessed with ratio 1, were lower in older participants. CONCLUSIONS: Low apparent CYP17A1 activity (assessed with ratio 1) is associated with elevated daytime ABP when salt intake is high. CYP17A1 activity is heritable and diminished in the elderly. These observations highlight the modifying effect of salt intake on the association of CYP17A1 with BP.

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A recent publication reported an exciting polygenic effect of schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants, identified by a large genome-wide association study (GWAS), on total brain and white matter volumes in schizophrenic patients and, even more prominently, in healthy subjects. The aim of the present work was to replicate and then potentially extend these findings. According to the original publication, polygenic risk scores using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) information of SCZ GWAS (polygenic SCZ risk scores; PSS) were calculated in 122 healthy subjects, enrolled in a structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study. These scores were computed based on P-values and odds ratios available through the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium. In addition, polygenic white matter scores (PWM) were calculated, using the respective SNP subset in the original publication. None of the polygenic scores, either PSS or PWM, were found to be associated with total brain, white matter or gray matter volume in our replicate sample. Minor differences between the original and the present study that might have contributed to lack of reproducibility (but unlikely explain it fully), are number of subjects, ethnicity, age distribution, array technology, SNP imputation quality and MRI scanner type. In contrast to the original publication, our results do not reveal the slightest signal of association of the described sets of GWAS-identified SCZ risk variants with brain volumes in adults. Caution is indicated in interpreting studies building on polygenic risk scores without replication sample.