A Bayesian model predicts the response of axons to molecular gradients

Axon guidance by molecular gradients plays a crucial role in wiring up the nervous system. However, the mechanisms axons use to detect gradients are largely unknown. We first develop a Bayesian “ideal observer” analysis of gradient detection by axons, based on the hypothesis that a principal constraint on gradient detection is intrinsic receptor binding noise. Second, from this model, we derive an equation predicting how the degree of response of an axon to a gradient should vary with gradient steepness and absolute concentration. Third, we confirm this prediction quantitatively by performing the first systematic experimental analysis of how axonal response varies with both these quantities. These experiments demonstrate a degree of sensitivity much higher than previously reported for any chemotacting system. Together, these results reveal both the quantitative constraints that must be satisfied for effective axonal guidance and the computational principles that may be used by the underlying signal transduction pathways, and allow predictions for the degree of response of axons to gradients in a wide variety of in vivo and in vitro settings.

The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

Robust speaker verification via fusion of speech and lip modalities

This paper investigates the use of lip information, in conjunction with speech information, for robust speaker verification in the presence of background noise. It has been previously shown in our own work, and in the work of others, that features extracted from a speaker's moving lips hold speaker dependencies which are complementary with speech features. We demonstrate that the fusion of lip and speech information allows for a highly robust speaker verification system which outperforms the performance of either sub-system. We present a new technique for determining the weighting to be applied to each modality so as to optimize the performance of the fused system. Given a correct weighting, lip information is shown to be highly effective for reducing the false acceptance and false rejection error rates in the presence of background noise

New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

The Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect : fast-forward 30 years

This study investigated the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect (KFE) first described by Craske and Kenny in 1981. The current study did not replicate these findings following a change in the reporting method used by participants. Participants did not perceive any reduction in the sagittal separation of a button pressed by the index finger of one arm and a probe touching the other, following repeated exposure to the tactile stimuli present on both unseen arms. This study’s failure to replicate the widely-cited KFE as described by Craske et al. (1984) suggests that it may be contingent on several aspects of visual information, especially the availability of a specific visual reference, the role of instructions regarding gaze direction, and the potential use of a line of sight strategy when referring felt positions to an interposed surface. In addition, a foreshortening effect was found; this may result from a line-of-sight judgment and represent a feature of the reporting method used. Finally, this research will benefit future studies that require participants to report the perceived locations of the unseen limbs.

Elaborating a tactile-proprioceptive illusion : the kinaesthetic fusion effect

This study investigated the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect (KFE) first described by Craske and Kenny in 1981. In Experiment 1 the study did not replicate these findings following a change in the reporting method used by participants. Participants did not perceive any reduction in the sagittal separation of a button pressed by the index finger of one arm and a probe touching the other, following repeated exposure to the tactile stimuli present on both unseen arms. This study’s failure to replicate the widely-cited KFE as described by Craske et al. (1984) suggests that it may be contingent on several aspects of visual information, especially the availability of a specific visual reference, the role of instructions regarding gaze direction, and the potential use of a line of sight strategy when referring felt positions to an interposed surface. In addition, a foreshortening effect was found; this may result from a line-of-sight judgment and represent a feature of the reporting method used. Finally, this research will benefit future studies that require participants to report the perceived locations of the unseen limbs. Experiment 2 investigated the KFE when the visual reference was removed and participants made reports of touched position, blindfolded. A number of interesting outcomes arose from this change and may provide clarification to the phenomena.

Post-operative CT assessment of interbody fusion two years after thoracoscopic scoliosis surgery

The relationship between radiologic union and clinical outcome in thoracoscopic scoliosis surgery is not clear, as apparent non-union of a spinal fusion does not always correspond to a poor clinical result. The aim of this study was to evaluate CT fusion rates 24 months after thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis surgery, and to explore the relationship between fusion scores and; (i) rod diameter, (ii) graft type, (iii) fusion level, (iv) occurrence of post-operative implant failure, and (v) lateral position of the fusion mass in the intervertebral disc space. We propose that moderate fusion scores on the Sucato scale secure successful clinical outcomes in thoracoscopic scoliosis surgery.