Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with Kernel functions

The seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed using a nonparametric methodology based on statistical kernel functions; the activity rate is derived from the catalogue data, both its spatial dependence (without a seismogenic zonation) and its magnitude dependence (without using Gutenberg–Richter's relationship). The catalogue is that of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, supplemented with other catalogues around the periphery; the quantification of events has been homogenised and spatially or temporally interrelated events have been suppressed to assume a Poisson process. The activity rate is determined by the kernel function, the bandwidth and the effective periods. The resulting rate is compared with that produced using Gutenberg–Richter statistics and a zoned approach. Three attenuation relationships have been employed, one for deep sources and two for shallower events, depending on whether their magnitude was above or below 5. The results are presented as seismic hazard maps for different spectral frequencies and for return periods of 475 and 2475 yr, which allows constructing uniform hazard spectra

ARF Is Required for Maintenance of Yeast Golgi and Endosome Structure and Function

ADP ribosylation factor (ARF) is thought to play a critical role in recruiting coatomer (COPI) to Golgi membranes to drive transport vesicle budding. Yeast strains harboring mutant COPI proteins exhibit defects in retrograde Golgi to endoplasmic reticulum protein transport and striking cargo-selective defects in anterograde endoplasmic reticulum to Golgi protein transport. To determine whether arf mutants exhibit similar phenotypes, the anterograde transport kinetics of multiple cargo proteins were examined in arf mutant cells, and, surprisingly, both COPI-dependent and COPI-independent cargo proteins exhibited comparable defects. Retrograde dilysine-mediated transport also appeared to be inefficient in the arf mutants, and coatomer mutants with no detectable anterograde transport defect exhibited a synthetic growth defect when combined with arf1Δ, supporting a role for ARF in retrograde transport. Remarkably, we found that early and medial Golgi glycosyltransferases localized to abnormally large ring-shaped structures. The endocytic marker FM4–64 also stained similar, but generally larger ring-shaped structures en route from the plasma membrane to the vacuole in arf mutants. Brefeldin A similarly perturbed endosome morphology and also inhibited transport of FM4–64 from endosomal structures to the vacuole. Electron microscopy of arf mutant cells revealed the presence of what appear to be hollow spheres of interconnected membrane tubules which likely correspond to the fluorescent ring structures. Together, these observations indicate that organelle morphology is significantly more affected than transport in the arf mutants, suggesting a fundamental role for ARF in regulating membrane dynamics. Possible mechanisms for producing this dramatic morphological change in intracellular organelles and its relation to the function of ARF in coat assembly are discussed.

Capital market equilibrium with moral hazard and flexible technology

(Magill, M., Quinzii, M., 2002. Capital market equilibrium with moral hazard. Journal of Mathematical Economics 38, 149-190) showed that, in a stockmarket economy with private information, the moral hazard problem may be resolved provided that a spanning overlap condition is satisfed. This result depends on the assumption that the technology is given by a stochastic production function with a single scalar input. The object of the present paper is to extend the analysis of Magill and Quinzii to the case of multiple inputs. We show that their main result extends to this general case if and only if, for each firm, the number of linearly independent combinations of securities having payoffs correlated with, but not dependent on, the firms output is equal to the number of degrees of freedom in the firm's production technology.

Bending and orientational characteristics of long period gratings written in D-shaped optical fiber

Long period gratings (LPGs) were written into a D-shaped single-mode fiber. These LPGs were subjected to a range of curvatures, and it was found that as curvature increased, there was increasingly strong coupling to certain higher order cladding modes without the usual splitting of the LPGs stopbands. A bend-induced stopband yielded a spectral sensitivity of 12.55 nm·m for curvature and 2.2×10-2 nm°C-1 for temperature. It was also found that the wavelength separation between adjacent bend-induced stopbands varied linearly as a function of curvature. Blue and red wavelength shifts of the stopbands were observed as the sensor was rotated around a fixed axis for a given curvature; thus, in principle, this sensor could be used to obtain bending and orientational information. The behavior of the stopbands was successfully modeled using a finite element approach.

Bending and orientational characteristics of long period gratings written in D-shaped optical fiber

Long period gratings (LPGs) were written into a D-shaped single-mode fiber. These LPGs were subjected to a range of curvatures, and it was found that as curvature increased, there was increasingly strong coupling to certain higher order cladding modes without the usual splitting of the LPGs stopbands. A bend-induced stopband yielded a spectral sensitivity of 12.55 nm · m for curvature and 2.2 × 10-2 nm°C-1 for temperature. It was also found that the wavelength separation between adjacent bend-induced stopbands varied linearly as a function of curvature. Blue and red wavelength shifts of the stopbands were observed as the sensor was rotated around a fixed axis for a given curvature; thus, in principle, this sensor could be used to obtain bending and orientational information. The behavior of the stopbands was successfully modeled using a finite element approach.

Ovarian suppression using luteinizing hormonereleasing hormone agonists during chemotherapy to preserve ovarian function and fertility of breast cancer patients: A meta-analysis of randomized studies

Background: The role of temporary ovarian suppression with luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonists (LHRHa) in the prevention of chemotherapy-induced premature ovarian failure (POF) is still controversial. Our meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) investigates whether the use of LHRHa during chemotherapy in premenopausal breast cancer patients reduces treatment-related POF rate, increases pregnancy rate, and impacts disease-free survival (DFS). Methods: A literature search using PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library, and the proceedings of major conferences, was conducted up to 30 April 2015. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for POF (i.e. POF by study definition, and POF defined as amenorrhea 1 year after chemotherapy completion) and for patients with pregnancy, as well hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for DFS, were calculated for each trial. Pooled analysis was carried out using the fixed- and random-effects models. Results: A total of 12 RCTs were eligible including 1231 breast cancer patients. The use of LHRHa was associated with a significant reduced risk of POF (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.23-0.57; P < 0.001), yet with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 47.1%, Pheterogeneity = 0.026). In eight studies reporting amenorrhea rates 1 year after chemotherapy completion, the addition of LHRHa reduced the risk of POF (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73, P < 0.001) without heterogeneity (I2 = 0.0%, Pheterogeneity = 0.936). In five studies reporting pregnancies, more patients treated with LHRHa achieved pregnancy (33 versus 19 women; OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.02-3.28, P = 0.041; I2 = 0.0%, Pheterogeneity = 0.629). In three studies reporting DFS, no difference was observed (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.49-2.04, P = 0.939; I2 = 68.0%, Pheterogeneity = 0.044). Conclusion: Temporary ovarian suppression with LHRHa in young breast cancer patients is associated with a reduced risk of chemotherapy-induced POF and seems to increase the pregnancy rate, without an apparent negative consequence on prognosis.

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

An approximate method for the solution of an influence function foil rolling model

Fleck and Johnson (Int. J. Mech. Sci. 29 (1987) 507) and Fleck et al. (Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. 206 (1992) 119) have developed foil rolling models which allow for large deformations in the roll profile, including the possibility that the rolls flatten completely. However, these models require computationally expensive iterative solution techniques. A new approach to the approximate solution of the Fleck et al. (1992) Influence Function Model has been developed using both analytic and approximation techniques. The numerical difficulties arising from solving an integral equation in the flattened region have been reduced by applying an Inverse Hilbert Transform to get an analytic expression for the pressure. The method described in this paper is applicable to cases where there is or there is not a flat region.