A history of the mathematical theory of probability from the time of Pascal to that of Laplace.

Mode of access: Internet.

Charitable giving: A test of a revised Theory of Planned Behaviour model

Recent world events aside, downward trends in donating behaviour in Australia have increased the need for research into the factors that inhibit and encourage charitable giving. A revised Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) model was used to determine the influence of attitudes, norms (injunctive, descriptive, and moral norms), perceived behavioural control (PBC), and past behaviour (PB) on intentions to donate money to charities and community service organisations. Respondents (N=186) completed a questionnaire assessing the constructs of the revised TPB model. Four weeks later, self-reported donating behaviour was assessed (n=65). Results showed support for the revised TPB model. Attitudes, PBC, injunctive norms, moral norms, and PB all predicted donating intentions. Descriptive norms did not predict intentions. Intention was the only significant predictor of selfreported behaviour four weeks later, with neither PBC nor PB having a direct effect on behaviour. Theoretical and applied implications of the results are discussed.

An application of strategic group theory to the UK pharmaceuticals industry

Conducts a strategic group mapping exercise by analysing R&D investment, sales/marketing cost and leadership information pertaining to the pharmaceuticals industry. Explains that strategic group mapping assists companies in identifying their principal competitors, and hence supports strategic decision-making, and shows that, in the pharmaceutical industry, R&D spending, the cost of sales and marketing, i.e. detailing, and technological leadership are mobility barriers to companies moving between sectors. Illustrates, in bubble-chart format, strategic groups in the pharmaceutical industry, plotting detailing-costs against the scale of activity in therapeutic areas. Places companies into 12 groups, and profiles the strategy and market-position similarities of the companies in each group. Concludes with three questions for companies to ask when evaluating their own, and their competitors, strategies and returns, and suggests that strategy mapping can be carried out in other industries, provided mobility barriers are identified.

Employment and Income of Workers on Indonesian Oil Palm Plantations: Food Crisis at the Micro Level

The importance of oil palm sector for Indonesia is inevitable as the country currently serves as the world’s largest producer of crude palm oil. This paper focuses on the situation of workers on Indonesian oil palm plantations. It attempts to investigate whether the remarkable development of the sector is followed by employment opportunities and income generation for workers. This question is posed within the theoretical framework on the link between trade liberalisation and labour rights, particularly in a labour-intensive and low-skilled sector. Based on extensive field research in Riau, this paper confirms that despite the rapid development of the oil palm plantation sector in Indonesia, the situations of workers in the sector remain deplorable, particularly their employment status and income. This also attests that trade liberalisation in the sector adversely affects labour rights. The poor working conditions also have ramifications for food security at the micro level.

A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

The Effects of Living in Segregated vs. Mixed Areas in Northern Ireland: A Simultaneous Analysis of Contact and Threat Effects in the Context of Micro-Level Neighbourhoods

This study examines the consequences of living in segregated and mixed neighbourhoods on ingroup bias and offensive action tendencies, taking into consideration the role of intergroup experiences and perceived threat. Using adult data from a cross-sectional survey in Belfast, Northern Ireland, we tested a model that examined the relationship between living in segregated (N = 396) and mixed (N = 562) neighbourhoods and positive contact, exposure to violence, perceived threat and outgroup orientations. Our results show that living in mixed neighbourhoods was associated with lower ingroup bias and reduced offensive action tendencies. These effects were partially mediated by positive contact. However, our analysis also shows that respondents living in mixed neighbourhoods report higher exposure to political violence and higher perceived threat to physical safety. These findings demonstrate the importance of examining both social experience and threat perceptions when testing the relationship between social environment and prejudice.

An examination of the relationship between maternal and neighborhood-level characteristics and intrauterine growth retardation in Harris County, Texas, 1999--2001

The persistence of low birth weight and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) in the United States has puzzled researchers for decades. Much of the work that has been conducted on adverse birth outcomes has focused on low birth weight in general and not on IUGR. Studies that have examined IUGR specifically thus far have focused primarily on individual-level maternal risk factors. These risk factors have only been able to explain a small portion of the variance in IUGR. Therefore, recent work has begun to focus on community-level risk factors in addition to the individual-level maternal characteristics. This study uses Social Ecology to examine the relationship of individual and community-level risk factors and IUGR. Logistic regression was used to establish an individual-level model based on 155, 856 births recorded in Harris County, TX during 1999-2001. IUGR was characterized using a fetal growth ratio method with race/ethnic and sex specific mean birth weights calculated from national vital records. The spatial distributions of 114,460 birth records spatially located within the City of Houston were examined using choropleth, probability and density maps. Census tracts with higher than expected rates of IUGR and high levels of neighborhood disadvantage were highlighted. Neighborhood disadvantage was constructed using socioeconomic variables from the 2000 U.S. Census. Factor analysis was used to create a unified single measure. Lastly, a random coefficients model was used to examine the relationship between varying levels of community disadvantage, given the set of individual-level risk factors for 152,997 birth records spatially located within Harris County, TX. Neighborhood disadvantage was measured using three different indices adapted from previous work. The findings show that pregnancy-induced hypertension, previous preterm infant, tobacco use and insufficient weight gain have the highest association with IUGR. Neighborhood disadvantage only slightly further increases the risk of IUGR (OR 1.12 to 1.23). Although community level disadvantage only helped to explain a small proportion of the variance of IUGR, it did have a significant impact. This finding suggests that community level risk factors should be included in future work with IUGR and that more work needs to be conducted. ^

Tri-level study: modification. Task 5: an examination of driver characteristics and collision producing errors of accident and traffic violation repeaters. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Antecedents and consequences of percieved effective managerial coaching:an individual, team-level and cross-level examination

The major contribution of the study is the identification of a positive link between perceived effective managerial coaching (PEMC) and team task performance and also, the examination of PEMC adopting a multilevel research design and incorporating dual-source data. Specifically, drawing on social psychology, the thesis aims at developing and testing a comprehensive conceptual framework of the antecedents and consequences of PEMC for knowledge workers. The model takes into consideration intrapersonal, interpersonal and team-level characteristics, which relate to PEMC and, subsequently associate with important work outcomes. In this regard, the thesis identifies PEMC as a practice of dual nature in that it may be experienced not only as a one-on-one workplace developmental interaction, but also as a managerial practice that is experienced by each member of a team for co-ordination purposes. Adopting a cross-sectional survey research design, the hypotheses are tested in three organisations in Greece and the UK. In particular, hierarchical linear modelling of 191 employees nested in 60 teams yields that employees’ learning goal orientation (LGO) and high-quality exchanges between an employee and a manager (LMX) are positively related to effective MC, while a manager’s LGO moderates the relationship between employees’ LGO and PEMC. In turn, PEMC, as a one-on-one practice, is related to cognitive outcomes, such as information sharing, while as a shared team practice is related also to behavioural outcomes, including individual and team performance. Overall, the study contributes to a growing body of coaching and management literature that acknowledges PEMC as a core managerial practice.

Privatization and competition in the delivery of local services: An empirical examination of the dual market hypothesis

This paper empirically analyses the hypothesis of the existence of a dual market for contracts in local services. Large firms that operate on a national basis control the contracts for delivery in the most populated and/or urban municipalities, whereas small firms that operate at a local level have the contracts in the least populated and/or rural municipalities. The dual market implies the high concentration and dominance of major firms in large municipalities, and local monopolies in the smaller ones. This market structure is harmful to competition for the market as the effective number of competitors is low across all municipalities. Thus, it damages the likelihood of obtaining cost savings from privatization.

The effects of agglomeration on wages: evidence from the micro-level

This paper estimates individual wage equations in order to test two rival non-nested theories of economic agglomeration, namely New Economic Geography (NEG), as represented by the NEG wage equation and urban economic (UE) theory , in which wages relate to employment density. The paper makes an original contribution by evidently being the first empirical paper to examine the issue of agglomeration processes associated with contemporary theory working with micro-level data, highlighting the role of gender and other individual-level characteristics. For male respondents, there is no significant evidence that wage levels are an outcome of the mechanisms suggested by NEG or UE theory, but this is not the case for female respondents. We speculate on the reasons for the gender difference.