Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Glaisdale Beck diversion scheme - channel change and suspended sediment response

This paper describes the implementation of a novel mitigation approach and subsequent adaptive management, designed to reduce the transfer of fine sediment in Glaisdale Beck; a small upland catchment in the UK. Hydro-meteorological and suspended sediment datasets are collected over a two year period spanning pre- and post-diversion periods in order to assess the impact of the channel reconfiguration scheme on the fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. Analysis of the river response demonstrates that the fluvial sediment system has become more restrictive with reduced fine sediment transfer. This is characterised by reductions in flow-weighted mean suspended sediment concentrations from 77.93 mg/l prior to mitigation, to 74.36 mg/l following the diversion. A Mann-Whitney U test found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001) between the pre- and post-monitoring median SSCs. Whilst application of one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) on the coefficients of sediment rating curves developed before and after the diversion found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001), with both Log a and b coefficients becoming smaller following the diversion. Non-parametric analysis indicates a reduction in residuals through time (p < 0.001), with the developed LOWESS model over-predicting sediment concentrations as the channel stabilises. However, the channel is continuing to adjust to the reconfigured morphology, with evidence of a headward propagating knickpoint which has migrated 120 m at an exponentially decreasing rate over the last 7 years since diversion. The study demonstrates that channel reconfiguration can be effective in mitigating fine sediment flux in upland streams but the full value of this may take many years to achieve whilst the fluvial system, slowly readjusts.

Comparison of prophylactic and therapeutic use of short-chain fatty acid enemas in diversion colitis: a study in Wistar rats

OBJECTIVES: To study the effect of short-chain fatty-acids on atrophy and inflammation of excluded colonic segments before and after the development of diversion colitis. INTRODUCTION: Diversion colitis is a chronic inflammatory process affecting the dysfunctional colon, possibly evolving with mucous and blood discharge. The most favored hypotheses to explain its development is short-chain fatty-acid deficiency in the colon lumen. METHODS: Wistar rats were submitted to colostomy with distal colon exclusion. Two control groups (A1 and B1) received rectally administered physiological saline, whereas two experimental groups (A2 and B2) received rectally administered short-chain fatty-acids. The A groups were prophylactically treated (5th to 40th days postoperatively), whereas the B groups were therapeutically treated (after post-operative day 40). The mucosal thickness of the excluded colon was measured histologically. The inflammatory reaction of the mucosal lamina propria and the lymphoid tissue response were quantified through established scores. RESULTS: There was a significant thickness recovery of the colonic mucosa in group B2 animals (p = 0.0001), which also exhibited a significant reduction in the number of eosinophilic polymorphonuclear cells in the lamina propria (p = 0.0126) and in the intestinal lumen (p = 0.0256). Group A2 showed no mucosal thickness recovery and significant increases in the numbers of lymphocytes (p = 0.0006) and eosinophilic polymorphonuclear cells in the lamina propria of the mucosa (p = 0.0022). CONCLUSION: Therapeutic use of short-chain fatty-acids significantly reduced eosinophilic polymorphonuclear cell numbers in the intestinal wall and in the colonic lumen; it also reversed the atrophy of the colonic mucosa. Prophylactic use did not impede the development of mucosal atrophy

Comparison of prophylactic and therapeutic use of short-chain fatty acid enemas in diversion colitis: a study in Wistar rats

OBJECTIVES: To study the effect of short-chain fatty-acids on atrophy and inflammation of excluded colonic segments before and after the development of diversion colitis. INTRODUCTION: Diversion colitis is a chronic inflammatory process affecting the dysfunctional colon, possibly evolving with mucous and blood discharge. The most favored hypotheses to explain its development is short-chain fatty-acid deficiency in the colon lumen. METHODS: Wistar rats were submitted to colostomy with distal colon exclusion. Two control groups (A1 and B1) received rectally administered physiological saline, whereas two experimental groups (A2 and B2) received rectally administered short-chain fatty-acids. The A groups were prophylactically treated (5th to 40th days postoperatively), whereas the B groups were therapeutically treated (after post-operative day 40). The mucosal thickness of the excluded colon was measured histologically. The inflammatory reaction of the mucosal lamina propria and the lymphoid tissue response were quantified through established scores. RESULTS: There was a significant thickness recovery of the colonic mucosa in group B2 animals (p = 0.0001), which also exhibited a significant reduction in the number of eosinophilic polymorphonuclear cells in the lamina propria (p = 0.0126) and in the intestinal lumen (p = 0.0256). Group A2 showed no mucosal thickness recovery and significant increases in the numbers of lymphocytes (p = 0.0006) and eosinophilic polymorphonuclear cells in the lamina propria of the mucosa (p = 0.0022). CONCLUSION: Therapeutic use of short-chain fatty-acids significantly reduced eosinophilic polymorphonuclear cell numbers in the intestinal wall and in the colonic lumen; it also reversed the atrophy of the colonic mucosa. Prophylactic use did not impede the development of mucosal atrophy

Firm-level trade creation and diversion of regional trade agreements in Thailand

Using highly detailed import data for Thailand, this paper examines firm-level trade creation and diversion of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Specifically, by focusing on firm-product pairs in which firms import a particular product from non-members but not from RTA members in the initial year of our sample, we empirically investigate the start of imports from RTA members under RTA schemes and the cessation of imports from non-members at the firm-level. We find that firms are more likely to stop importing products with low RTA tariff rates or high most-favored-nation tariff rates from non-members and to start importing such products from RTA member countries. However, from the quantitative point of view, there are very few firms that switch import sources from non-members to RTA members when facing the introduction of RTA schemes.

Resultados da cirurgia de reservatórios ileais em pacientes com doença de Crohn

BACKGROUND: Total rectocolectomy and ileal pouch-anal anastomosis is the choice surgical procedure for patients with ulcerative colitis. In cases of Crohn's disease post-operative diagnosis, it can be followed by pouch failure. AIM: To evaluate ileal pouch-anal anastomosis long-term outcome in patients with Crohn's disease. METHODS: Between February 1983 and March 2007, 151 patients were submitted to ileal pouch-anal anastomosis by Campinas State University Colorectal Unit, Campinas, SP, Brazil, 76 had pre-operative ulcerative colitis diagnosis and 11 had post-operative Crohn's disease diagnosis. Crohn's disease diagnosis was made by histopathological biopsies in nine cases, being one in surgical specimen, two cases in rectal stump, small bowel in two cases, ileal pouch in three and in perianal abscess in one of them. The median age was 30.6 years and eight (72.7%) were female. RESULTS: All patients had previous ulcerative colitis diagnosis and in five cases emergency colectomy was done by toxic megacolon. The mean time until of Crohn's disease diagnosis was 30.6 (6-80) months after ileal pouch-anal anastomosis. Ileostomy closure was possible in 10 cases except in one that had ileal pouch fistula, perianal disease and small bowel involvement. In the long-term follow-up, three patients had perineal fistulas and one had also a pouch-vaginal fistula. All of them were submitted to a new ileostomy and one had the pouch excised. Another patient presented pouch-vaginal fistula which was successfully treated by mucosal flap. Three patients had small bowel involvement and three others, pouch involvement. All improved with medical treatment. Presently, the mean follow-up is 76.5 months and all patients are in clinical remission, and four have fecal diversion. The remaining patients have good functional results with 6-10 bowel movements/day. CONCLUSION: Crohn's disease diagnosis after ileal pouch-anal anastomosis for ulcerative colitis may be usual and later complications such fistulas and stenosis are common. However, when left in situ ileal pouch is associated with good function.

Early morphological and histochemical alterations in rats subjected to ileocystoplasty

PURPOSE: To study morphologic and histochemical alterations arising at the ileocystoplasty site. METHODS: Sixteen Wistar female rats were subjected to ileocystoplasty and sacrificed after eight weeks. Material collected was divided into four groups for histological and histochemical studies: Group I (control) - isolated ileum segment removed during ileocystoplasty; Group II - ileoileal anastomosis; Group III - ileovesical anastomosis and Group IV - ileal segment from the neobladder. Histological and histochemical study assessed dysplasia, metaplasia, acute and chronic inflammation, fibrosis, atrophy, hypertrophy, total mucins, sialomucins and sulfomucins. The non-parametric Wilcoxon and Mann-Whitney tests were employed in statistical analysis. RESULTS: None of the groups presented dysplasia. Acute inflammation and atrophy occurred in Groups II, III and IV, not reaching statistical significance. Metaplasia was significant only in Group III (p=0.012). Chronic inflammation, fibrosis and hypertrophy were significant in Groups II, III and IV. There was a significant increase in total mucin content in Group IV (p=0.014) and a reduction in Group III (p=0.016). Increases in sialomucins were observed in samples for Groups III (p=0.003) and IV (p=0.002) along with reduced sulfomucins in samples from Groups III (p=0.013) and IV (p=0.008). CONCLUSION: Ileocystoplasty in female rats caused squamous metaplasia, chronic inflammatory infiltration, fibrosis, hypertrophy, increase in sialomucin content, reduction in sulfomucins, and alterations in total mucin content with statistical significance, as well acute inflammatory infiltration and muscular atrophy with less intensity.

Role of price and enforcement in water allocation: Insights from Game Theory

As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency`s economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of ""Law and Economics,`` with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.

OPTIMIZATION OF THE TREATMENT PROCESS FOR RESIDUAL WATER FROM A BEER INDUSTRY

The optimization of the treatment process for residual waters from a brewery operating under the modality of an anaerobic reactor and activated sludge combination was studied in two phases. In the first stage, lasting for six months, the characteristics and parameters of the plant operation were analyzed, wherein a diversion rate of more than 50% to aerobic treatment, the use of two aeration tanks and a high sludge production prevailed. The second stage comprised four months during which the system worked under the proposed operational model, with the aim of improving the treatment: reduction of the diversion rate to 30% and use of only one aeration tank At each stage, TSS, VSS and COD were measured at the entrance and exit of the anaerobic reactor mid the aeration tanks. The results were compared with the corresponding design specifications and the needed conditions were applied to reduce the diversion rate towards the aerobic process through monitoring the volume and concentration of the affluent, while applying the strategic changes in reactor parameters needed to increase its efficiency. A diversion reduction from 53 to 34% was achieved, reducing the sludge discharge generated in the aerobic system from 3670mg TSS/l. with two aeration tanks down to 2947mf TSS/l using one tank keeping the same relation VSS:TSS (0.55) and an efficiency of total removal of 98% in terms of COD.

A qualitative study of Australian GPs' attitudes and practices in the diagnosis and management of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)

Background. The importance of general practice involvement in the care of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is increasing due to the rising numbers of patients who present with the disorder. It has been suggested by consensus bodies that GPs should be identifying and referring patients at the severe end of the ADHD spectrum and managing those with less severe symptoms. However, GPs' views of their role in ADHD care are unknown. Objective. Our aim was to explore the attitudes and practices of Australian GPs towards the diagnosis and management of ADHD. Methods. We conducted a series of focus groups to explore GPs' beliefs regarding the causes of ADHD, their perceived role in ADHD diagnosis and management and their views on the role of behaviour therapies and pharmacotherapies in ADHD management. The subjects were 28 GPs in six focus groups. Results. GPs in this study did not want to be the primary providers of care for patients with ADHD. Participants indicated a preference to refer the patient to medical specialists for diagnosis and treatment of ADHD, and expressed low levels of interest in becoming highly involved in ADHD care. Concerns about overdiagnosis and misdiagnosis of the disorder, diagnostic complexity, time constraints, insufficient education and training about the disorder, and concerns regarding misuse and diversion of stimulant medications were the reasons cited for their lack of willingness. Conclusions. The Australian GPs in this study identify a role for themselves in ADHD care which is largely supportive in nature, and involves close liaison with specialist services.

Prospective randomized controlled trial comparing 2 versions of laparoscopic ileal interposition associated with sleeve gastrectomy for patients with type 2 diabetes with BMI 21-34 kg/m(2)

Background: The objective of the present study was to prospectively evaluate the results of 2 versions of laparoscopic ileal interposition (II) and sleeve gastrectomy (SG) for the treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and body mass index of 21-34 kg/m(2). Methods: The laparoscopic procedures were prospectively and randomly performed in 38 patients. Of the 38 patients, 18 underwent the first version (II-SG) and 20 underwent the second version in which a diversion of the second portion of the duodenum was applied (II-DSG) and a segment of ileum was interposed into the proximal duodenum. The groups were comparable regarding age (56 and 50 years); gender (13 men and 5 women and 14 men and 6 women); weight (78 and 86 kg); mean BMI (27 and 29 kg/m(2)); duration of type 2 diabetes mellitus (10.1 and 9.2 years); the presence of dyslipidemia (12 and 8 patients), micro- and macroalbuminuria (9 and 9 patients), hypertension (8 and 15 patients), and retinopathy (5 and 8 patients); and the use of antidiabetic medications and the hemoglobin A1c level (8.6% and 8.4%). All patients were followed up for >= 2 years. Results: The mean hospital stay was 3.4 days for the II-SG and 3.5 days for the II-DSG group. No patient required reoperation. All patients in both groups achieved lower levels of hemoglobin A1c. In the II-SG group. the mean hemoglobin A 1c level was 6.35% (range 4.9-8.1). In the II-DSG group, the mean hemoglobin A 1c level was 5.39% (range 4.2-6.5%). The mean BMI decreased in both groups to 22.2 kg/m(2) in the II-SG group and 22.7 kg/m(2) in the II-DSG group. Normal cholesterol levels (<200 mg/dL) were observed in 95% of the II-SG group and 100% of the II-DSG group. The triglycerides were lower than 150 mg/dL in 73% of the II-SG group and 90% of the II-DSG group after 24 months. Conclusion: Laparoscopic II-SG and II-DSG were safe and effective operations for controlling type 2 diabetes mellitus in a nonobese (BMI 21-34 kg/m(2)) population. (Surg Obes Relat Dis 2010;6:296-305.) (C) 2010 American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and correlates of the injection of methadone syrup in Sydney, Australia

A sample of 312 heroin users was interviewed on their injection of methadone syrup. Methadone injecting was widespread, with 52% of subjects having injected methadone syrup, 29% in the preceding six months. Males and females were equally likely to report methadone injecting. Forty per cent Of current methadone injectors reported weekly or more frequent methadone injecting over the preceding six months. A history of methadone injecting was;associated with abscesses and infections in injection sites, having been diagnosed with a venous thrombosis and a history of heroin overdose. Current methadone injectors were in poorer general health, had more injection-related symptoms, higher levels of psychological distress, were more likely to have recently passed on used injecting equipment and to have recently committed criminal acts. Implications for the reduction in the prevalence of methadone injecting and associated harm are discussed.