Motorcycle accident risk could be inflated by a time to arrival illusion

Purpose. Drivers adopt smaller safety margins when pulling out in front of motorcycles compared with cars. This could partly account for why the most common motorcycle/car accident involves a car violating a motorcyclist's right of way. One possible explanation is the size-arrival effect in which smaller objects are perceived to arrive later than larger objects. That is, drivers may estimate the time to arrival of motorcycles to be later than cars because motorcycles are smaller. Methods. We investigated arrival time judgments using a temporal occlusion paradigm. Drivers recruited from the student population (n = 28 and n = 33) saw video footage of oncoming vehicles and had to press a response button when they judged that vehicles would reach them. Results. In experiment 1, the time to arrival of motorcycles was estimated to be significantly later than larger vehicles (a car and a van) for different approach speeds and viewing times. In experiment 2, we investigated an alternative explanation to the size-arrival effect: that the smaller size of motorcycles places them below the threshold needed for observers to make an accurate time to arrival judgment using tau. We found that the motorcycle/car difference in arrival time estimates was maintained for very short occlusion durations when tau could be estimated for both motorcycles and cars. Conclusions. Results are consistent with the size-arrival effect and are inconsistent with the tau threshold explanation. Drivers estimate motorcycles will reach them later than cars across a range of conditions. This could have safety implications.

Perceiving time to collision activates the sensorimotor cortex

The survival of many animals hinges upon their ability to avoid collisions with other animals or objects or to precisely control the timing of collisions. Optical expansion provides a compelling impression of object approach and in principle can provide the basis for judgments of time to collision (TTC) [1]. It has been demonstrated that pigeons [2] and houseflies [3] have neural systems that can initiate rapid coordinated actions on the basis of optical expansion. In the case of humans, the linkage between judgments of TTC and coordinated action has not been established at a cortical level. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we identified superior-parietal and motor-cortex areas that are selectively active during perceptual TTC judgments, some of which are normally involved in producing reach-to-grasp responses. These activations could not be attributed to actual movement of participants. We demonstrate that networks involved in the computational problem of extracting TTC from expansion information have close correspondence with the sensorimotor systems that would be involved in preparing a timed motor response, such as catching a ball or avoiding collision.

Taking time to understand: articulating relationships between technologies and organizations

Dynamic relationships between technologies and organizations are investigated through research on digital visualization technologies and their use in the construction sector. Theoretical work highlights mutual adaptation between technologies and organizations but does not explain instances of sustained, sudden, or increasing maladaptation. By focusing on the technological field, I draw attention to hierarchical structuring around inter-dependent levels of technology; technological priorities of diverse groups; power asymmetries and disjunctures between contexts of development and use. For complex technologies, such as digital technologies, I argue these field-level features explain why organizations peripheral to the field may experience difficulty using emerging technology.

The decomposition of some RDX and HMX based materials in the one dimensional time to explosion apparatus. Part 2. Estimating the violence of the cook-off event

Various methods of assessment have been applied to the One Dimensional Time to Explosion (ODTX) apparatus and experiments with the aim of allowing an estimate of the comparative violence of the explosion event to be made. Non-mechanical methods used were a simple visual inspection, measuring the increase in the void volume of the anvils following an explosion and measuring the velocity of the sound produced by the explosion over 1 metre. Mechanical methods used included monitoring piezo-electric devices inserted in the frame of the machine and measuring the rotational velocity of a rotating bar placed on the top of the anvils after it had been displaced by the shock wave. This last method, which resembles original Hopkinson Bar experiments, seemed the easiest to apply and analyse, giving relative rankings of violence and the possibility of the calculation of a “detonation” pressure.

The decomposition of some RDX and HMX based materials in the one-dimensional time to explosion apparatus. Part 1. Time to explosion and apparent activation energy

A One-Dimensional Time to Explosion (ODTX) apparatus has been used to study the times to explosion of a number of compositions based on RDX and HMX over a range of contact temperatures. The times to explosion at any given temperature tend to increase from RDX to HMX and with the proportion of HMX in the composition. Thermal ignition theory has been applied to time to explosion data to calculate kinetic parameters. The apparent activation energy for all of the compositions lay between 127 kJ mol−1 and 146 kJ mol−1. There were big differences in the pre-exponential factor and this controlled the time to explosion rather than the activation energy for the process.

Time to decide? Simplicity and congruity in comparative judgment

What is the relationship between magnitude judgments relying on directly available characteristics versus probabilistic cues? Question frame was manipulated in a comparative judgment task previously assumed to involve inference across a probabilistic mental model (e.g., “which city is largest” – the “larger” question – versus “which city is smallest” – the “smaller” question). Participants identified either the largest or smallest city (Experiments 1a, 2) or the richest or poorest person (Experiment 1b) in a three-alternative forced choice (3-AFC) task (Experiment 1) or 2-AFC task (Experiment 2). Response times revealed an interaction between question frame and the number of options recognized. When asked the smaller question, response times were shorter when none of the options were recognized. The opposite pattern was found when asked the larger question: response time was shorter when all options were recognized. These task-stimuli congruity results in judgment under uncertainty are consistent with, and predicted by, theories of magnitude comparison which make use of deductive inferences from declarative knowledge.

Time to act: the UK in NATO

Since 1989, NATO has expanded its strategic concept and geopolitical scope to the detriment of an efficient and well-defined military capability in Europe. The Ukrainian crisis has brought the attention back to Europe and to NATO’s deterrent value. As one of the Alliance’s leading members, Britain must act as a catalyst to ensure that NATO has the necessary military strength and political will to respond to the new security challenges.

Estimated lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden using time-to-event analysis

Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads’ lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time to event analysis. The model used includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size and climate zone, where the model is stratified according to traffic load. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime, 32 percent longer than asphalt concrete. Among road types, ordinary roads with cable barriers had 30 percent shorter lifetime than ordinary roads. Increased speed lowered the lifetime, while increased stone size (up to 20 mm) and increased road width lengthened the lifetime. The results are of importance for life cycle cost analysis and road management.

Redução do time-to-market : estudo de caso na indústria de terminais celulares

O desenvolvimento da sociedade pós-industrial, voltada para a valorização da informação, exige das empresas um alto nível de adaptação às necessidades do consumidor, com o escopo de assegurar posição competitiva no mercado. A exposição do consumidor a novas tecnologias e a ciclos de vida útil, associados aos produtos progressivamente mais exíguos, exige das empresas a obrigatoriedade de introdução de velocidade nos processos de concepção e desenvolvimento de produtos. O presente trabalho propõe o estudo de caso de uma empresa da indústria de terminais celulares, mediante sua análise diante de um modelo descritivo de melhores práticas de geração de valor significativo, a partir da política de redução do time-to-market nas atividades de manufatura das empresas, embasada em profunda revisão bibliográfica sobre o tema. Assevera-se como a velocidade representa atributo constitutivo de vantagem competitiva e quais os recursos, atributos e ativos, a empresa deve constituir para assegurar o apropriado embasamento de uma política voltada para a redução dos ciclos de produção. A integração dos diversos elos da cadeia de valor apresenta essencialidade para a persecução do time-to-market, razão pela qual, outros dois aspectos são estudados com relativa profundidade. A terceirização autoriza a possibilidade da empresa se focar nas atividades consideradas primárias, delegando aos fornecedores o desempenho das atividades não-essenciais. Igualmente, destacam-se as principais conseqüências associadas a este processo. Não obstante, um segundo determinante da integração é alvo de avaliação, pela sua crescente representatividade no âmbito empresarial: a utilização da tecnologia de informação como estratégia para alavancagem dos negócios corporativos e integração dos parceiros diretamente envolvidos na fabricação dos produtos. O estudo pauta-se, fundamentalmente, na propositura de um modelo que pode ser adotado em qualquer empresa, com o escopo de se alcançar a vantagem competitiva sustentável.