Kuznetsov independence for interval-valued expectations and sets of probability distributions: Properties and algorithms

Kuznetsov independence of variables X and Y means that, for any pair of bounded functions f(X) and g(Y), E[f(X)g(Y)]=E[f(X)] *times* E[g(Y)], where E[.] denotes interval-valued expectation and *times* denotes interval multiplication. We present properties of Kuznetsov independence for several variables, and connect it with other concepts of independence in the literature; in particular we show that strong extensions are always included in sets of probability distributions whose lower and upper expectations satisfy Kuznetsov independence. We introduce an algorithm that computes lower expectations subject to judgments of Kuznetsov independence by mixing column generation techniques with nonlinear programming. Finally, we define a concept of conditional Kuznetsov independence, and study its graphoid properties.

Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments.

Probabilistic logic with independence

This paper investigates probabilistic logics endowed with independence relations. We review propositional probabilistic languages without and with independence. We then consider graph-theoretic representations for propositional probabilistic logic with independence; complexity is analyzed, algorithms are derived, and examples are discussed. Finally, we examine a restricted first-order probabilistic logic that generalizes relational Bayesian networks.

Computing lower and upper expectations under epistemic independence

This paper investigates the computation of lower/upper expectations that must cohere with a collection of probabilistic assessments and a collection of judgements of epistemic independence. New algorithms, based on multilinear programming, are presented, both for independence among events and among random variables. Separation properties of graphical models are also investigated.

"The Constitution in Northern Ireland - After the Scottish Independence Referendum"

This chronicle considers some of the possible developments in the Northern Ireland Peace Process that may be occasioned by the imperatives for wider constitutional change resulting from the Independence Referendum in Scotland in September 2014. After reviewing the devolution story in Scotland, and the developments leading to the referendum, some of the wider tensions that remain within the UK constitution are reviewed, and their impact on the Northern Ireland settlement are considered. Next, attention is given to the range of issues that are presently undermining the continuing success of the Northern Ireland settlement as a mechanism of government and the possibilities for adapting the constitutional architecture to overcome these difficulties.

State architecture: subsidiarity, devolution, federalism and independence

This chapter examines the current ‘architecture’ of the British state, in particular the way in which governmental power is distributed among the nations of the United Kingdom. The theme of this chapter will be to show how the continuing (and, as James Bryce argued, inevitable) tension between centripetal and centrifugal forces can be usefully applied to power relations between the various nations of the United Kingdom, and between these nations and Europe, providing a basis for analyzing how these nations are drawn or impelled by some forces towards a centralized unitary polity, whilst at the same time other forces tend towards dispersion of power. The resulting pattern might be analyzed along a spectrum from centralization to independence, with subsidiarity, devolution and federalism being seen as weigh stations along the way, but given how complex the variations in the distribution of power between these nations and the centre have become over time, the construction of any static architectural blueprint of the British state is bound to be misleading. Indeed, the architectural metaphor, with its implications of stability might usefully be rethought.

DNA mismatch repair and the transition to hormone independence in breast and prostate cancer

The molecular basis for the progression of breast and prostate cancer from hormone dependent to hormone independent disease remains a critical issue in the management of these two cancers. The DNA mismatch repair system is integral to the maintenance of genomic stability and suppression of tumorigenesis. No firm consensus exists regarding the implications of mismatch repair (MMR) deficiencies in the development of breast or prostate cancer. However, recent studies have reported an association between mismatch repair deficiency and loss of specific hormone receptors, inferring a potential role for mismatch repair deficiency in this transition. An updated review of the experimental data supporting or contradicting the involvement of MMR defects in the development and progression of breast and prostate cancer will be provided with particular emphasis on their implications in the transition to hormone independence.

Violence against women in the Irish War of Independence, 1919-1921

This chapter examines the nature and extent of violence experienced by women in Ireland during the Irish War of Independence (1919-1921) at the hands of both the Crown forces and the Irish Republican Army. It argues that targetted killings of women by either side was rare. The most common forms of such violence can be categorised as physical, gendered (cutting of hair) and psychological (intimidation and the killing of male relatives). It argues that there was a difference between gendered and sexual crime, the latter of which appears to have been very uncommon. A considerable part of the chapter uses theoretical literature on violence against women in conflict zones to explain why sexual violence was uncommon, arguing that neither side had much to gain from its employment, that the Crown forces were aware of the damage it could do to Britain's international reputation and that the terror tactics adopted by the Crown forces were sufficient to achieve their ends without resorting to rape. In regard to the IRA, the absence of any evidence of rape or sexual assault being perpetrated could be attributable to their Catholicism, reliance on support from the community, the efforts of the first Dáil to achieve foreign recognition of the Republic and the role of Cumann na mBan women in the guerrilla conflict. The historiography of women in the Irish revolution is also analysed.

A generalization of the Hoffman-Lovász upper bound on the independence number of a regular graph

A family of quadratic programming problems whose optimal values are upper bounds on the independence number of a graph is introduced. Among this family, the quadratic programming problem which gives the best upper bound is identified. Also the proof that the upper bound introduced by Hoffman and Lovász for regular graphs is a particular case of this family is given. In addition, some new results characterizing the class of graphs for which the independence number attains the optimal value of the above best upper bound are given. Finally a polynomial-time algorithm for approximating the size of the maximum independent set of an arbitrary graph is described and the computational experiments carried out on 36 DIMACS clique benchmark instances are reported.

'Anyone But England‘, Glasgow 2014 and the Independence Referendum: Exploring the Role of Narratives in the Sociological Study of Scottish Sport.

Drawing upon the findings of my MSc dissertation and the proposed methodology for my current PhD thesis, this paper will critically reflect upon the potential uses of narrative analysis within the sociological study of sport. The majority of this paper will consider the expression of anti-English sentiment by Scots in relation to both sporting and wider social contexts. Drawing upon the conceptual framework of ‘narrative identity’ proposed by Somers (1994), data was generated through semi-structured interviews focusing upon the ‘ontological’ and ‘public’ narratives of Scottish identity as expressed by Scots living in England. The relationship between Scotland and England is argued to be heavily influenced by the existence of an ‘underdog mentality’ grand ‘public narrative’ for Scots in relation to their English neighbours, based on perceived differences in economic and sporting resources. This ‘underdog mentality’ is argued to act as a legitimating force for the expression of anti-English sentiment within an individual’s ‘ontological narrative’ in both a sporting and wider social context. The paper concludes by reflecting upon the benefits of adopting a narrative analysis approach, and outlining the proposed use of similar methods within my PhD research on the 2014 Glasgow Commonwealth Games and the Scottish independence referendum.

The Glasgow 2014 XX Commonwealth Games and Scottish Independence: “Political Truce” or Political Truth(s)?

This paper explores the political reaction to Lord McConnell’s appeal for a political ‘truce’ in the form of a temporary halt to campaigning by all political parties and organisations involved in the debate regarding the Scottish independence referendum during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games (BBC, 2014; McConnell, 2014). Urging both sides of the debate to cease campaigning for the two-week period of the Glasgow 2014 games, the current Labour peer and past First Minister of the Scottish Parliament cited concerns that there are “genuine concerns that the Games, and the image of Scotland, could be damaged by attempts by either side – for and against – to use the Games to promote their cause, or to use the venues for campaigning” (McConnell, 2014). Drawing upon the principles of both a critical discourse and a narrative analysis methodological approach, this paper will scrutinise the nature of the political reactions to McConnell’s proposal from a variety of perspectives on both sides of the independence referendum debate. In particular, the emphasis in the responses from both sides of the debate regarding the apolitical nature of the 2014 Games will be critiqued, drawing upon the arguments of past analyses of sporting mega-events which highlight the potential for political exploitation of such events by the host nations (e.g. Horne, 2007; Grix, 2012; Houlihan and Giulianotti, 2012; Roche, 2006). Furthermore, the findings of academic research on the political implications of hosting the Commonwealth Games will be considered (e.g. Majumdar and Mehta, 2010; Van Der Westhuizen, 2004; Macintosh and Greenhorn, 1992; Majumdar, 2011; Lockstone and Baum, 2010; Macfarlane and Herd, 1986), highlighting a number of precedents which demonstrate the numerous challenges faced in any attempts to the keep the 2014 Games free from political influence.

Political Discourse Analysis, Sport and Scottish Independence: Provisional Reflections upon Fairclough and Fairclough's (2012) Analytical Framework.

This paper aims to reflect upon the potential analytical utility of the political discourse analysis framework proposed by Isabela Fairclough and Norman Fairclough (2012). This framework represents the most recent substantive development upon Norman Fairclough's past work situated within the wider school of Critical Discourse Analysis, building upon his influential position this methodological tradition. Central to this development is the additional emphasis placed upon the necessity to conceptualise all political discourse as 'argumentative' in nature, given that political actors are ultimately proposing or refuting particular courses of concrete future action. This paper will therefore apply Fairclough and Fairclough's model to provisional data derived from an ongoing doctoral thesis which considers the nature of political discourse relating to sport, the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and Scottish independence, with an ultimate aim of critically considering the benefits and limitations of applying this analytical framework as a methodological tool within this ongoing study.

The Working Group on Scottish Sport and the Scottish Independence Referendum: an Unrealised Political 'Imaginary'?

In September 2014, a historic referendum on the issue of Scottish independence was held, with the potential to dissolve the political union between Scotland and the other constituent nations of the United Kingdom which had survived intact since the 1707 Act of Union. On a significantly high electoral turnout of 84.6%, the Scottish electorate opted to reject the proposals of the governing party in the devolved Scottish Parliament, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), to create an independent Scottish state, with 55.3% of the electorate voting ‘No’ to Scottish independence against a 44.7% ‘Yes’ vote. In the grand scheme of the Scottish independence referendum campaigns, sports policy remained a somewhat peripheral issue within the arguments forwarded by the Yes Scotland and Better Together campaigns. Nonetheless, developments such as the formation of the 'Sport for Yes' campaign sub-group, the inclusion of sport within the Scottish Government’s White Paper on Scottish independence and the establishment of the Working Group on Scottish Sport demonstrated that the potential implications of independence were still deemed significant enough to merit a degree of policy planning by the Scottish Government (Lafferty, 2014; Scottish Government, 2013; Working Group on Scottish Sport, 2013, 2014). This paper will critically consider the implications of the 'No' vote in the Scottish independence referendum for the latter of these developments, the policy proposals of the Working Group for Scottish Sport. Drawing upon the principles of critical discourse analysis, specifically the analytical framework proposed by Fairclough and Fairclough (2012), the content of this group's proposal will be examined in order to critically explore the policy for Scottish sport it envisaged for an independent Scottish state. The paper will then conclude by reflecting upon the extent to which elements of this political 'imaginary' (Fairclough and Fairclough, 2012) of Scottish sport remain a possibility for future sports policy in Scotland following the eventual 'No' vote in the referendum.

‘Sport for Yes’? The Precarious Positioning of Scottish Athletes in the Scottish Independence Referendum Campaign.

This paper will critically consider the implications for Scottish athletes who have publicly stated their personal opinion on the Scottish independence referendum. Developments such as the inclusion of sport within the Scottish Government’s White Paper on Scottish independence, the establishment of the ‘Working Group on Scottish Sport’ and the establishment of the ‘Sport for Yes’ campaign group demonstrate the harnessing of sporting issues as an additional, if somewhat peripheral, debate point in the referendum campaigns (Lafferty, 2014; Scottish Government, 2013; Working Group on Scottish Sport, 2013, 2014). The latter of these developments, the establishment of the ‘Sport for Yes’ campaign group, is of particular interest, offering evidence of the explicit political mobilisation of past and present athletes in support of the ‘Yes Scotland’ pro-independence campaign. Whilst the pro-union ‘Better Together’ campaign does not possess a comparable group to the ‘Sport for Yes’ example, examples of athletes discussing the potential negative impact of Scottish independence on the funding and organisation of Scottish sport have been capitalised upon by pro-union campaigners, as exemplified in the comments of Sir Chris Hoy (BBC, 2013; Daily Record, 2013a). Given the negative reaction to Hoy’s comments from certain pro-independence campaigners (Daily Record, 2013b; Swanson, 2013), other Scottish athletes have understandably attempted to avoid controversy by refusing to align with either side of the referendum debate. This paper will therefore consider the potential pitfalls for athletes who publicly announce their political positions, whilst also scrutinising the extent to which such pronouncements are of political significance, drawing upon past academic analyses of the interrelationship between sport and politics (e.g. Coghlan, 1990; Houlihan, 1994; Jeffreys, 2012; Macfarlane, 1986; Whannel, 2008).

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