ACE research vignette 017: The new venture mortality myth

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of internatinal Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Dr Jonathan Levie of the University of Strathclyde notes wide and persistent gaps between perceptions and measures of new business mortality, and discusses possible implications.

The impact of temperature on years of life lost in Brisbane, Australia

Temperature is an important determinant of health. A better knowledge of how temperature affects population health is important not only to the scientific community, but also to the decision-makers who develop and implement early warning systems and intervention strategies to mitigate the health effects of extreme temperatures. The temperature–health relationship is also of growing interest as climate change is projected to shift the overall temperature distribution higher. Previous studies have examined the relative risks of temperature-related mortality, but the absolute measure of years of life lost is also useful as it combines the number of deaths with life expectancy. Here we use years of life lost to provide a novel measure of the impact of temperature on mortality in Brisbane, Australia. We also project the future temperature-related years of life lost attributable to climate change. We show that the association between temperature and years of life lost is U-shaped, with increased years of life lost for cold and hot temperatures. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 �C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. This study highlights that public health adaptation to climate change is necessary.

High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year : important information for heat-warning systems

We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age ≥ 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a “main effect” due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an “added effect” due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.

Malnutrition and poor food intake are associated with prolonged hospital stay, frequent readmissions, and greater in-hospital mortality: Results from the Nutrition Care Day Survey 2010

Background & aims The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) ascertained if malnutrition and poor food intake are independent risk factors for health-related outcomes in Australian and New Zealand hospital patients. Methods Phase 1 recorded nutritional status (Subjective Global Assessment) and 24-h food intake (0, 25, 50, 75, 100% intake). Outcomes data (Phase 2) were collected 90-days post-Phase 1 and included length of hospital stay (LOS), readmissions and in-hospital mortality. Results Of 3122 participants (47% females, 65 ± 18 years) from 56 hospitals, 32% were malnourished and 23% consumed ≤ 25% of the offered food. Malnourished patients had greater median LOS (15 days vs. 10 days, p < 0.0001) and readmissions rates (36% vs. 30%, p = 0.001). Median LOS for patients consuming ≤ 25% of the food was higher than those consuming ≤ 50% (13 vs. 11 days, p < 0.0001). The odds of 90-day in-hospital mortality were twice greater for malnourished patients (CI: 1.09–3.34, p = 0.023) and those consuming ≤ 25% of the offered food (CI: 1.13–3.51, p = 0.017), respectively. Conclusion The ANCDS establishes that malnutrition and poor food intake are independently associated with in-hospital mortality in the Australian and New Zealand acute care setting.

The impact of malnutrition and decreased food intake on length of stay, readmission, and mortality in acute care patients

Rationale: The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) evaluated if malnutrition and decreased food intake are independent risk factors for negative outcomes in hospitalised patients. Methods: A multicentre (56 hospitals) cross-sectional survey was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 evaluated nutritional status (defined by Subjective Global Assessment) and 24-hour food intake recorded as 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% intake. Phase 2 data, which included length of stay (LOS), readmissions and mortality, were collected 90 days post-Phase 1. Logistic regression was used to control for confounders: age, gender, disease type and severity (using Patient Clinical Complexity Level scores). Results: Of 3122 participants (53% males, mean age: 65±18 years) 32% were malnourished and 23% consumed�25% of the offered food. Median LOS for malnourished (MN) patients was higher than well-nourished (WN) patients (15 vs. 10 days, p<0.0001). Median LOS for patients consuming �25% of the food was higher than those consuming �50% (13 vs. 11 days, p<0.0001). MN patients had higher readmission rates (36% vs. 30%, p = 0.001). The odds ratios of 90-day in-hospital mortality were 1.8 times greater for MN patients (CI: 1.03 3.22, p = 0.04) and 2.7 times greater for those consuming �25% of the offered food (CI: 1.54 4.68, p = 0.001). Conclusion: The ANCDS demonstrates that malnutrition and/or decreased food intake are associated with longer LOS and readmissions. The survey also establishes that malnutrition and decreased food intake are independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in acute care patients; and highlights the need for appropriate nutritional screening and support during hospitalisation. Disclosure of Interest: None Declared.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality and the role of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors : a prospective cohort study with 17-years of follow up

Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood.