Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

Modelling for the electricity distribution network

Global awareness for cleaner and renewable energy is transforming the electricity sector at many levels. New technologies are being increasingly integrated into the electricity grid at high, medium and low voltage levels, new taxes on carbon emissions are being introduced and individuals can now produce electricity, mainly through rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. While leading to improvements, these changes also introduce challenges, and a question that often rises is ‘how can we manage this constantly evolving grid?’ The Queensland Government and Ergon Energy, one of the two Queensland distribution companies, have partnered with some Australian and German universities on a project to answer this question in a holistic manner. The project investigates the impact the integration of renewables and other new technologies has on the physical structure of the grid, and how this evolving system can be managed in a sustainable and economical manner. To aid understanding of what the future might bring, a software platform has been developed that integrates two modelling techniques: agent-based modelling (ABM) to capture the characteristics of the different system units accurately and dynamically, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the most economical mix of network extension and integration of distributed generation over long periods of time. Using data from Ergon Energy, two types of networks (3 phase, and Single Wired Earth Return or SWER) have been modelled; three-phase networks are usually used in dense networks such as urban areas, while SWER networks are widely used in rural Queensland. Simulations can be performed on these networks to identify the required upgrades, following a three-step process: a) what is already in place and how it performs under current and future loads, b) what can be done to manage it and plan the future grid and c) how these upgrades/new installations will perform over time. The number of small-scale distributed generators, e.g. PV and battery, is now sufficient (and expected to increase) to impact the operation of the grid, which in turn needs to be considered by the distribution network manager when planning for upgrades and/or installations to stay within regulatory limits. Different scenarios can be simulated, with different levels of distributed generation, in-place as well as expected, so that a large number of options can be assessed (Step a). Once the location, sizing and timing of assets upgrade and/or installation are found using optimisation techniques (Step b), it is possible to assess the adequacy of their daily performance using agent-based modelling (Step c). One distinguishing feature of this software is that it is possible to analyse a whole area at once, while still having a tailored solution for each of the sub-areas. To illustrate this, using the impact of battery and PV can have on the two types of networks mentioned above, three design conditions can be identified (amongst others): · Urban conditions o Feeders that have a low take-up of solar generators, may benefit from adding solar panels o Feeders that need voltage support at specific times, may be assisted by installing batteries · Rural conditions - SWER network o Feeders that need voltage support as well as peak lopping may benefit from both battery and solar panel installations. This small example demonstrates that no single solution can be applied across all three areas, and there is a need to be selective in which one is applied to each branch of the network. This is currently the function of the engineer who can define various scenarios against a configuration, test them and iterate towards an appropriate solution. Future work will focus on increasing the level of automation in identifying areas where particular solutions are applicable.

Estimating benefits of energy storage for aggregate storage applications in electricity distribution networks in Queensland

Electric Energy Storage (EES) is considered as one of the promising options for reducing the need for costly upgrades in distribution networks in Queensland (QLD). However, It is expected, the full potential for storage for distribution upgrade deferral cannot be fully realized due to high cost of EES. On the other hand, EES used for distribution deferral application can support a variety of complementary storage applications such as energy price arbitrage, time of use (TOU) energy cost reduction, wholesale electricity market ancillary services, and transmission upgrade deferral. Aggregation of benefits of these complementary storage applications would have the potential for increasing the amount of EES that may be financially attractive to defer distribution network augmentation in QLD. In this context, this paper analyzes distribution upgrade deferral, energy price arbitrage, TOU energy cost reduction, and integrated solar PV-storage benefits of EES devices in QLD.

Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

Demand-side response model to avoid spike of electricity price

The aim of this work is to develop a demand-side-response model, which assists electricity consumers exposed to the market price to independently and proactively manage air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimize the energy cost caused by the air conditioning load considering to several cases e.g. normal price, spike price, and the probability of a price spike case. This model also investigated how air-conditioning applies a pre-cooling method when there is a substantial risk of a price spike. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve financial benefits for consumers and target the best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics regarding hot days from 2011 to 2012.

Defining expected cost for the air conditioning to avoid a price spike of electricity market under DSR model

This work presents a demand side response model (DSR) which assists small electricity consumers, through an aggregator, exposed to the market price to proactively mitigate price and peak impact on the electrical system. The proposed model allows consumers to manage air-conditioning when as a function of possible price spikes. The main contribution of this research is to demonstrate how consumers can minimise the total expected cost by optimising air-conditioning to account for occurrences of a price spike in the electricity market. This model investigates how pre-cooling method can be used to minimise energy costs when there is a substantial risk of an electricity price spike. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics during hot days on weekdays in the period 2011 to 2012.

‘Redstone is like electricity’: Children's performative representations in and around Minecraft

In this article, we investigate eight and nine year old girls’ school and home use of the popular game Minecraft and the ways in which the girls ‘bring themselves into being’ through talk and digital production in the social spaces of the classroom and within the game’s multiplayer online world. This work was conducted as part of a broader digital games in education project involving primary and secondary school-aged students in Australia and focuses specifically on data collected from an all-girls primary school in Brisbane. We investigate the processes of identity construction that occur as the girls undertake practices of curatorship (Potter, 2012) to display their knowledge of Minecraft through discussion of the game, both ‘in world’ and in face-to-face interactions, and as they assemble resources within and around the game to design, build and display their creations and share stories about their game play. The article begins with a consideration of recent scholarship focussing on children, learning and digital culture and literacy practices before explaining how Minecraft is, in many ways, an exemplary instance of a digital game that promotes and enables complex practices of digital participation. We then introduce the concepts of performativity and recognition (Butler 1990, 2004, 2005) which, we argue, provide productive ways to theorise identity work within affinity groups. The article then outlines some background to the research project and our methodology before providing analysis of the data in the second half of the article. We conclude by outlining the implications of our investigation for the conceptualisation of learning spaces as affinity groups and for considering digital participation as curatorship.

Moving from outsider to insider : peer status and partnerships between electricity utilities and residential consumers

An electricity demand reduction project based on comprehensive residential consumer engagement was established within an Australian community in 2008. By 2011, both the peak demand and grid supplied electricity consumption had decreased to below pre-intervention levels. This case study research explored the relationship developed between the utility, community and individual consumer from the residential customer perspective through qualitative research of 22 residential households. It is proposed that an energy utility can be highly successful at peak demand reduction by becoming a community member and a peer to residential consumers and developing the necessary trust, access, influence and partnership required to create the responsive environment to change. A peer-community approach could provide policymakers with a pathway for implementing pro-environmental behaviour for low carbon communities, as well as peak demand reduction, thereby addressing government emission targets while limiting the cost of living increases from infrastructure expenditure.

Crystalline Si nanoparticles below crystallization threshold : effects of collisional heating in non-thermal atmospheric-pressure microplasmas

Nucleation and growth of highly crystalline silicon nanoparticles in atmospheric-pressure low-temperature microplasmas at gas temperatures well below the Si crystallization threshold and within a short (100 μs) period of time are demonstrated and explained. The modeling reveals that collision-enhanced ion fluxes can effectively increase the heat flux on the nanoparticle surface and this heating is controlled by the ion density. It is shown that nanoparticles can be heated to temperatures above the crystallization threshold. These combined experimental and theoretical results confirm the effective heating and structure control of Si nanoparticles at atmospheric pressure and low gas temperatures.

Effect of atmospheric gas plasmas on cancer cell signaling

Cancer is one of the most life-threatening diseases with many forms still regarded as incurable. The conventional cancer treatments have unwanted side effects such as the death of normal cells. A therapy that can accurately target and effectively kill tumor cells could address the inadequacies of the available therapies. Atmospheric gas plasmas (AGP) that are able to specifically kill cancerous cells offer a promising alternative approach compared to conventional therapies. AGP have been shown to exploit tumor-specific genetic defects and a recent trial in mice has confirmed its antitumor effects. The mechanism by which the AGP act on tumor cells but not normal cells is not fully understood. A review of the current literature suggests that reactive oxygen species (ROS) generated by AGP induce death of cancer cells by impairing the function of intracellular regulatory factors. The majority of cancer cells are defective in tumor suppressors that interfere normal cell growth pathways. It appears that pro-oncogene or tumor suppressor-dependent regulation of antioxidant/or ROS signaling pathways may be involved in AGP-induced cancer cell death. The toxic effects of ROS are mitigated by normal cells by adjustment of their metabolic pathways. On the other hand, tumor cells are mostly defective in several regulatory signaling pathways which lead to the loss of metabolic balance within the cells and consequently, the regulation of cell growth. This review article evaluates the impact of AGP on the activation of cellular signaling and its importance for exploring mechanisms for safe and efficient anticancer therapies.

Atmospheric gas plasma–induced ROS production activates TNF-ASK1 pathway for the induction of melanoma cancer cell apoptosis

Atmospheric gas plasmas (AGPs) are able to selectively induce apoptosis in cancer cells, offering a promising alternative to conventional therapies that have unwanted side effects such as drug resistance and toxicity. However, the mechanism of AGP-induced cancer cell death is unknown. In this study, AGP is shown to up-regulate intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and induce apoptosis in melanoma but not normal melanocyte cells. By screening genes involved in apoptosis, we identify tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-family members as the most differentially expressed cellular genes upon AGP treatment of melanoma cells. TNF receptor 1 (TNFR1) antagonist-neutralizing antibody specifically inhibits AGP-induced apoptosis signal, regulating apoptosis signal-regulating kinase 1 (ASK1) activity and subsequent ASK1-dependent apoptosis. Treatment of cells with intracellular ROS scavenger N-acetyl-l-cysteine also inhibits AGP-induced activation of ASK1, as well as apoptosis. Moreover, depletion of intracellular ASK1 reduces the level of AGP-induced oxidative stress and apoptosis. The evidence for TNF-signaling dependence of ASK1-mediated apoptosis suggests possible mechanisms for AGP activation and regulation of apoptosis-signaling pathways in tumor cells.

Atmospheric pressure plasmas : infection control and bacterial responses

Cold atmospheric pressure plasma (APP) is a recent, cutting-edge antimicrobial treatment. It has the potential to be used as an alternative to traditional treatments such as antibiotics and as a promoter of wound healing, making it a promising tool in a range of biomedical applications with particular importance for combating infections. A number of studies show very promising results for APP-mediated killing of bacteria, including removal of biofilms of pathogenic bacteria such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa. However, the mode of action of APP and the resulting bacterial response are not fully understood. Use of a variety of different plasma-generating devices, different types of plasma gases and different treatment modes makes it challenging to show reproducibility and transferability of results. This review considers some important studies in which APP was used as an antibacterial agent, and specifically those that elucidate its mode of action, with the aim of identifying common bacterial responses to APP exposure. The review has a particular emphasis on mechanisms of interactions of bacterial biofilms with APP.

Atmospheric microplasma-functionalized 3D microfluidic strips within dense carbon nanotube arrays confine Au nanodots for SERS sensing

An atmospheric microplasma jet produces three-dimensional (3D) microfluidic channels on dense arrays of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes, which confines Au nanodot aqueous solution. The resulting hybrid 3D nanostructure is exploited as an effective microscopic area-selective sensing platform based on surface-enhanced Raman scattering.

Designing atmospheric-pressure plasma sources for surface engineering of nanomaterials

Atmospheric-pressure plasma processing techniques emerge as efficient and convenient tools to engineer a variety of nanomaterials for advanced applications in nanoscience and nanotechnology. This work presents different methods, including using a quasi-sinusoidal high-voltage generator, a radio-frequency power supply, and a uni-polar pulse generator, to generate atmospheric-pressure plasmas in the jet or dielectric barrier discharge configurations. The applicability of the atmospheric-pressure plasma is exemplified by the surface modification of nanoparticles for polymeric nanocomposites. Dielectric measurements reveal that representative nanocomposites with plasma modified nanoparticles exhibit notably higher dielectric breakdown strength and a significantly extended lifetime.