Asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in highly dependable systems

Abstract We consider a wide class of models that includes the highly reliable Markovian systems (HRMS) often used to represent the evolution of multi-component systems in reliability settings. Repair times and component lifetimes are random variables that follow a general distribution, and the repair service adopts a priority repair rule based on system failure risk. Since crude simulation has proved to be inefficient for highly-dependable systems, the RESTART method is used for the estimation of steady-state unavailability and other reliability measures. In this method, a number of simulation retrials are performed when the process enters regions of the state space where the chance of occurrence of a rare event (e.g., a system failure) is higher. The main difficulty involved in applying this method is finding a suitable function, called the importance function, to define the regions. In this paper we introduce an importance function which, for unbalanced systems, represents a great improvement over the importance function used in previous papers. We also demonstrate the asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in these models. Several examples are presented to show the effectiveness of the new approach, and probabilities up to the order of 10-42 are accurately estimated with little computational effort.

The asymptotic distribution of canonical correlations and vectors in higher-order cointegrated models

The study of the large-sample distribution of the canonical correlations and variates in cointegrated models is extended from the first-order autoregression model to autoregression of any (finite) order. The cointegrated process considered here is nonstationary in some dimensions and stationary in some other directions, but the first difference (the “error-correction form”) is stationary. The asymptotic distribution of the canonical correlations between the first differences and the predictor variables as well as the corresponding canonical variables is obtained under the assumption that the process is Gaussian. The method of analysis is similar to that used for the first-order process.

Agreement between the city of New York through the Board of Estimate and Apportionment and the Brooklyn Public Library.

Mode of access: Internet.

Minutes of the Board of Estimate and Apportionment of the City of New York.

Description based on: Jan. 1 to Mar. 31, 1912.

Asymptotic estimation of errors and derivatives for the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations,

"Supported in part by contract US AEC AT(11-1)2383."

The industrial education survey of the city of New York ... Report of the committee authorized by the Board of estimate and apportionment.

C.R. Richards, chairman.

Preliminary report of a special committee consisting of the Chief Engineer of the Board of Estimate and Apportionment, the Commissioner of Docks, the Commissioner of Plant and Structures, and the Engineer of the Borough of Richmond, concerning the Brooklyn-Richmond freight and passenger tunnel.

At head of title: City of New York. Board of Estimate and Apportionment.

Asymptotic properties of stationary sequences.

Bibliography: p. 146.

Asymptotic theory of time varying networks with memory and heterogeneous activation pattern

In this thesis work we develop a new generative model of social networks belonging to the family of Time Varying Networks. The importance of correctly modelling the mechanisms shaping the growth of a network and the dynamics of the edges activation and inactivation are of central importance in network science. Indeed, by means of generative models that mimic the real-world dynamics of contacts in social networks it is possible to forecast the outcome of an epidemic process, optimize the immunization campaign or optimally spread an information among individuals. This task can now be tackled taking advantage of the recent availability of large-scale, high-quality and time-resolved datasets. This wealth of digital data has allowed to deepen our understanding of the structure and properties of many real-world networks. Moreover, the empirical evidence of a temporal dimension in networks prompted the switch of paradigm from a static representation of graphs to a time varying one. In this work we exploit the Activity-Driven paradigm (a modeling tool belonging to the family of Time-Varying-Networks) to develop a general dynamical model that encodes fundamental mechanism shaping the social networks' topology and its temporal structure: social capital allocation and burstiness. The former accounts for the fact that individuals does not randomly invest their time and social interactions but they rather allocate it toward already known nodes of the network. The latter accounts for the heavy-tailed distributions of the inter-event time in social networks. We then empirically measure the properties of these two mechanisms from seven real-world datasets and develop a data-driven model, analytically solving it. We then check the results against numerical simulations and test our predictions with real-world datasets, finding a good agreement between the two. Moreover, we find and characterize a non-trivial interplay between burstiness and social capital allocation in the parameters phase space. Finally, we present a novel approach to the development of a complete generative model of Time-Varying-Networks. This model is inspired by the Kaufman's adjacent possible theory and is based on a generalized version of the Polya's urn. Remarkably, most of the complex and heterogeneous feature of real-world social networks are naturally reproduced by this dynamical model, together with many high-order topological properties (clustering coefficient, community structure etc.).

Asymptotic theory of wall-attached convection in a horizontal fluid layer with a vertical magnetic field

A horizontal fluid layer heated from below in the presence of a vertical magnetic field is considered. A simple asymptotic analysis is presented which demonstrates that a convection mode attached to the side walls of the layer sets in at Rayleigh numbers much below those required for the onset of convection in the bulk of the layer. The analysis complements an earlier analysis by Houchens [J. Fluid Mech. 469, 189 (2002)] which derived expressions for the critical Rayleigh number for the onset of convection in a vertical cylinder with an axial magnetic field in the cases of two aspect ratios. © 2008 American Institute of Physics.

On the Asymptotic Behavior of the Ratio between the Numbers of Binary Primitive and Irreducible Polynomials

This work was presented in part at the 8th International Conference on Finite Fields and Applications Fq^8 , Melbourne, Australia, 9-13 July, 2007.

Asymptotic Behaviour of Colength of Varieties of Lie Algebras

This project was partially supported by RFBR, grants 99-01-00233, 98-01-01020 and 00-15-96128.

Asymptotic Property of Eigenvalues and Eigenfunctions of the Laplace Operator in Domain with a Perturbed Boundary

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 35J05, 35C15, 44P05

Existence and Asymptotic Stability of Solutions of a Perturbed Quadratic Fractional Integral Equation

Mathematics Subject Classification: 45G10, 45M99, 47H09