Technical Appendix-3-Regime asymmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncer- tainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. The present is a technical Appendix to Cerrato et al. (2009) and presents detailed simulations of the proposed methodology and additional empirical results.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Asymmetric standing facilities: an unexploited monetary policy tool

This paper analyzes the role of standing facilities in the determination of the demand for reserves in the overnight money market. In particular, we study how the asymmetric nature of the deposit and lending facilities could be used as a powerful policy tool for the simultaneous control of prices and quantities in the market for daily funds.

Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Egalitarian equivalence under asymmetric information

We propose a definition of egalitarian equivalence that extends Pazner and Schmeidler's (1978) concept to environments with incomplete information. If every feasible allocation rule can be implemented by an incentive compatible mechanism (as, for instance, in the case of non-exclusive information), then interim egalitarian equivalence and interim incentive efficiency remain compatible, as they were under complete information. When incentive constraints are more restrictive, on the other hand, the two criteria may become incompatible.

Is monetary policy in new members states asymmetric?

Estimated Taylor rules became popular as a description of monetary policy conduct. There are numerous reasons why real monetary policy can be asymmetric and estimated Taylor rule nonlinear. This paper tests whether monetary policy can be described as asymmetric in three new European Union (EU) members (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), which apply an inflation targeting regime. Two different empirical frameworks are

DIP-STR: A new marker for resolving unbalanced DNA mixtures

The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvementis imperative. Most cases of aggression, homicide and sexual assault produce biological traces withrelatively large amount of the victim's DNA and small amount of the aggressor's DNA. If this ratio issmaller than 1:10 it is currently not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minorcontributor, with potential loss of crucial DNA evidence. Y-STR analysis represents a solution for somecases but has several limitations. We propose here a method based on a new compound genetic markerformed by a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP) linked to a Short Tandem Repeat polymorphism(STR), that we name DIP-STR. By means of allele-specific amplifications of DIP-STR haplotypes, we canproduce a high resolution autosomal DNA profile of a donor that contributes less than 0.1% to a DNAmixture. Based on these features DIP-STR markers may outperform conventional Y-STR markers inmixed stain analysis.

DIP-STR: Highly Sensitive Markers for the Analysis of Unbalanced Genomic Mixtures.

Samples containing highly unbalanced DNA mixtures from two individuals commonly occur both in forensic mixed stains and in peripheral blood DNA microchimerism induced by pregnancy or following organ transplant. Because of PCR amplification bias, the genetic identification of a DNA that contributes trace amounts to a mixed sample represents a tremendous challenge. This means that standard genetic markers, namely microsatellites, also referred as short tandem repeats (STR), and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) have limited power in addressing common questions of forensic and medical genetics. To address this issue, we developed a molecular marker, named DIP-STR that relies on pairing deletion-insertion polymorphisms (DIP) with STR. This novel analytical approach allows for the unambiguous genotyping of a minor component in the presence of a major component, where DIP-STR genotypes of the minor were successfully procured at ratios up to 1:1,000. The compound nature of this marker generates a high level of polymorphism that is suitable for identity testing. Here, we demonstrate the power of the DIP-STR approach on an initial set of nine markers surveyed in a Swiss population. Finally, we discuss the limitations and potential applications of our new system including preliminary tests on clinical samples and estimates of their performance on simulated DNA mixtures.

Identifying pesticide use patterns among flower growers to assess occupational exposure to mixtures

Objectives Exposure assessment to a single pesticide does not capture the complexity of the occupational exposure. Recently, pesticide use patterns analysis has emerged as an alternative to study these exposures. The aim of this study is to identify the pesticide use pattern among flower growers in Mexico participating in the study on the endocrine and reproductive effects associated with pesticide exposure. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out to gather retrospective information on pesticide use applying a questionnaire to the person in charge of the participating flower growing farms. Information about seasonal frequency of pesticide use (rainy and dry) for the years 2004 and 2005 was obtained. Principal components analysis was performed. Results Complete information was obtained for 88 farms and 23 pesticides were included in the analysis. Six principal components were selected, which explained more than 70% of the data variability. The identified pesticide use patterns during both years were: 1. fungicides benomyl, carbendazim, thiophanate and metalaxyl (both seasons), including triadimephon during the rainy season, chlorotalonyl and insecticide permethrin during the dry season; 2. insecticides oxamyl, biphenthrin and fungicide iprodione (both seasons), including insecticide methomyl during the dry season; 3. fungicide mancozeb and herbicide glyphosate (only during the rainy season); 4. insecticides metamidophos and parathion (both seasons); 5. insecticides omethoate and methomyl (only rainy season); and 6. insecticides abamectin and carbofuran (only dry season). Some pesticides do not show a clear pattern of seasonal use during the studied years. Conclusions The principal component analysis is useful to summarise a large set of exposure variables into smaller groups of exposure patterns, identifying the mixtures of pesticides in the occupational environment that may have an interactive effect on a particular health effect.

Full label space reduction in MPLS networks: asymmetric merged tunneling

Traffic Engineering objective is to optimize network resource utilization. Although several works have been published about minimizing network resource utilization in MPLS networks, few of them have been focused in LSR label space reduction. This letter studies Asymmetric Merged Tunneling (AMT) as a new method for reducing the label space in MPLS network. The proposed method may be regarded as a combination of label merging (proposed in the MPLS architecture) and asymmetric tunneling (proposed recently in our previous works). Finally, simulation results are performed by comparing AMT with both ancestors. They show a great improvement in the label space reduction factor

A RT-PCR method for selective amplification and phenotypic characterization of all three serotypes of Sabin-related polioviruses from viral mixtures

Outbreaks caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses are challenging the final eradication of paralytic poliomyelitis. Therefore, the surveillance of the acute flaccid paralysis cases based on poliovirus isolation and characterization remains an essential activity. Due to the use of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), mixtures containing more than one serotype of Sabin-related polioviruses are frequently isolated from clinical samples. Because each poliovirus isolate needs to be individually analyzed, we designed polymerase chain reaction primers that can selectively distinguish and amplify a genomic segment of the three Sabin-related poliovirus serotypes present in mixtures, thus, optimizing the diagnosis and providing prompt information to support epidemiologic actions.

Optimisation of an asymmetric polymerase chain reaction assay for the amplification of single-stranded DNA from Wuchereria bancrofti for electrochemical detection

Single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) is a prerequisite for electrochemical sensor-based detection of parasite DNA and other diagnostic applications. To achieve this detection, an asymmetric polymerase chain reaction method was optimised. This method facilitates amplification of ssDNA from the human lymphatic filarial parasite Wuchereria bancrofti. This procedure produced ssDNA fragments of 188 bp in a single step when primer pairs (forward and reverse) were used at a 100:1 molar ratio in the presence of double-stranded template DNA. The ssDNA thus produced was suitable for immobilisation as probe onto the surface of an Indium tin oxide electrode and hybridisation in a system for sequence-specific electrochemical detection of W. bancrofti. The hybridisation of the ssDNA probe and target ssDNA led to considerable decreases in both the anodic and the cathodic currents of the system's redox couple compared with the unhybridised DNA and could be detected via cyclic voltammetry. This method is reproducible and avoids many of the difficulties encountered by conventional methods of filarial parasite DNA detection; thus, it has potential in xenomonitoring.

Object-oriented Bayesian networks for evaluating DIP-STR profiling results from unbalanced DNA mixtures.

The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvement is imperative. In fact, with current methods for DNA analysis (Polymerase Chain Reaction with the SGM Plus™ multiplex kit), it is generally not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minor contributor if the ratio between the two contributors in a mixture is smaller than 1:10. This is a consequence of the fact that the major contributor's profile 'masks' that of the minor contributor. Besides known remedies to this problem, such as Y-STR analysis, a new compound genetic marker that consists of a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP), linked to a Short Tandem Repeat (STR) polymorphism, has recently been developed and proposed elsewhere in literature [1]. The present paper reports on the derivation of an approach for the probabilistic evaluation of DIP-STR profiling results obtained from unbalanced DNA mixtures. The procedure is based on object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) and uses the likelihood ratio as an expression of the probative value. OOBNs are retained in this paper because they allow one to provide a clear description of the genotypic configuration observed for the mixed stain as well as for the various potential contributors (e.g., victim and suspect). These models also allow one to depict the assumed relevance relationships and perform the necessary probabilistic computations.