From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

The death and resurrection of 'economics with psychology': remarks from a methodological standpoint

One of the merits of contemporary economic analysis is its capacity to offer accounts of choice behavior that dispense with details of the complex decision machinery. The starting point of this paper is the concern with the important methodological debate about whether economics might offer accurate predictions and explanations of actual behavior without any reference to psychological presuppositions. Inspired by an exercise of rational reconstruction of ideas, I aim to offer an interpretation of the process of freeing economic analysis from psychology at the end of the 19th century and the contemporary resurrection of behavioral approaches in the late 1980s.

Partnership for arts integration : exploring the experiences of teachers and artists working with integrated arts programs

This research acknowledges the difficulties experienced by teachers presenting integrated arts curricula. Instructional support is offered by arts organizations that provide arts partnerships with local schools boards. The study focuses on the experiences of 8 teachers from a Catholic school board in southern Ontario who participated in integrated arts programs offered by The Royal Conservatory of Music's Learning Through the Arts™ (LTTATM) program and a local art gallery's Art Based Integrated Learning (ABIL) program and examines their responses to the programs and their perception of personal and professional development through this association. Additionally, questions were posed to the . "aftisfs"from-tneSe]Jfograrrrs;-and"they liiscus·sed·how"participating in-collaboration with teachers in the development of in-school programs enabled them to experience personal and professional development as well. Seven themes emerged from the data. These themes included: teachers' feelings of a lack of preparedness to teach the arts; the value of the arts and arts partnerships in schools; the role of the artists in the education of teachers; professional development for both teachers and artists; the development of collegiality; perceptions of student engagement; and the benefits and obstacles of integrating the arts into the curriculum. This document highlights the benefits to both teachers and artists of arts partnerships between schools and outside arts organizations.

Creativity and the schizophrenia spectrum unveiled : the similarities and the differences

This study examined the commonalities and the differences between creativity and the schizophrenia spectrum. The variables measured as potential commonalities and differences were creativity, schizotypy, cognitive inhibition, spatial ability, balancing skills, positive and negative presence, absorption, mystical experiences, childhood abuse, and neuroticism. Three community groups were recruited, consisting of 31 artists, 10 people with schizophrenia, and 31 comparisons matched for gender and age with the artists. A larger student group consisting of 102 students was also recruited in order to examine the correlations among the same variables within a larger, more normative, group. The largest commonality between the artist and the schizophrenic groups, who represented the extreme end of the schizophrenia spectrum, was the propensity to mystical experiences. The greatest differences between the artist and the schizophrenic groups were that the artists were higher in creativity, performed better on spatial abilities, had better balance, had more positive states of presence, and were lower in neuroticism than the schizophrenic group. In the student group, creativity was correlated with spatial ability, positive presence, absorption, and mystical experiences. In addition, creativity was significantly related to two facets of schizotypy, unusual experiences and impulsive nonconformity. In other words, students high in certain facets of schizotypy, who may share certain characteristics with those who have schizophrenia, are higher in creativity, but people who are on the extreme end of the schizophrenia spectrum, who have been diagnosed with schizophrenia, are not. The differences between the artist and schizophrenic groups on spatial ability, balance, sense of presence, and neuroticism may help to determine whether mystical experiences help to integrate creative work or destabilize and disorganize the sense of self. It may be that mystical experiences can be used more positively by the creative individuals than people with schizophrenia, in that artists and people high in creativity were higher in positive traits such as positive presence and lower on negative variables such as neuroticism, and introvertive anhedonia.

Artists Rendering of Isobel Price

Artist’s rendering in colour of Isobel Price in an oval frame with a hook at the top and a section at the back which contains a lock of hair. This painting was done by Gerald Sinclair Hayward who was a renowned artist whose work was displayed at an exhibition in New York in 1899. He painted Theodore Roosevelt, William K. Vanderbilt and members of the ruling families of Britain, Germany and Russia. The frame is enclosed in a folding case lined with velvet and silk. The silk is quite worn. The outside of the case appears to be leather and has a stand for setting it upright. It closes with a metal latch. This is accompanied by a note by R. Band.

Famous artists

UANL

The psychology of exclusivity

L’amitié et l’amour romantique sont, de par leur nature, des relations exclusives. Cet article suggère que l’on peut mieux comprendre la nature de l’exclusivité dont il est question en comprenant l’erreur au coeur de la vision du raisonnement pratique que je nomme « le point de vue englobant » . Selon le PVE, pour que le raisonnement pratique soit rationnel, il doit s’agir d’un processus ayant pour but de choisir la meilleure alternative possible à partir d’une perspective qui est aussi détachée et objective que possible. Quoique cette vision cherche à être neutre à l’égard des porteurs de valeurs, elle incorpore en fait un biais contre les porteurs de valeurs qui ne peuvent être appréciés qu’à partir d’une perspective qui n’est pas détachée - qui ne peuvent être appréciés, par exemple, que par les agents qui sont engagés à long terme envers les valeurs en question. Dans le contexte des relations personnelles, de tels engagements tendent à donner naissance à la sorte d’exclusivité qui caractérise l’amitié et l’amour romantique ; ils empêchent l’agent d’être impartial entre les besoins, les intérêts, etc. de la personne qui lui est chère, d’une part, et ceux des autres, d’autre part. Je suggère que dans de tels contextes les besoins et les revendications des autres personnes peuvent être réduites au silence, de la même manière que, comme le suggère John McDowell, les tentations de l’immoralité sont, pour l’agent vertueux, réduites au silence.

Verbal proficiency as fitness indicator: Experimental and comparative research on the evolutionary psychology of language and verbal displays

Summary: Recent research on the evolution of language and verbal displays (e.g., Miller, 1999, 2000a, 2000b, 2002) indicated that language is not only the result of natural selection but serves as a sexually-selected fitness indicator that is an adaptation showing an individual’s suitability as a reproductive mate. Thus, language could be placed within the framework of concepts such as the handicap principle (Zahavi, 1975). There are several reasons for this position: Many linguistic traits are highly heritable (Stromswold, 2001, 2005), while naturally-selected traits are only marginally heritable (Miller, 2000a); men are more prone to verbal displays than women, who in turn judge the displays (Dunbar, 1996; Locke & Bogin, 2006; Lange, in press; Miller, 2000a; Rosenberg & Tunney, 2008); verbal proficiency universally raises especially male status (Brown, 1991); many linguistic features are handicaps (Miller, 2000a) in the Zahavian sense; most literature is produced by men at reproduction-relevant age (Miller, 1999). However, neither an experimental study investigating the causal relation between verbal proficiency and attractiveness, nor a study showing a correlation between markers of literary and mating success existed. In the current studies, it was aimed to fill these gaps. In the first one, I conducted a laboratory experiment. Videos in which an actor and an actress performed verbal self-presentations were the stimuli for counter-sex participants. Content was always alike, but the videos differed on three levels of verbal proficiency. Predictions were, among others, that (1) verbal proficiency increases mate value, but that (2) this applies more to male than to female mate value due to assumed past sex-different selection pressures causing women to be very demanding in mate choice (Trivers, 1972). After running a two-factorial analysis of variance with the variables sex and verbal proficiency as factors, the first hypothesis was supported with high effect size. For the second hypothesis, there was only a trend going in the predicted direction. Furthermore, it became evident that verbal proficiency affects long-term more than short-term mate value. In the second study, verbal proficiency as a menstrual cycle-dependent mate choice criterion was investigated. Basically the same materials as in the former study were used with only marginal changes in the used questionnaire. The hypothesis was that fertile women rate high verbal proficiency in men higher than non-fertile women because of verbal proficiency being a potential indicator of “good genes”. However, no significant result could be obtained in support of the hypothesis in the current study. In the third study, the hypotheses were: (1) most literature is produced by men at reproduction-relevant age. (2) The more works of high literary quality a male writer produces, the more mates and children he has. (3) Lyricists have higher mating success than non-lyric writers because of poetic language being a larger handicap than other forms of language. (4) Writing literature increases a man’s status insofar that his offspring shows a significantly higher male-to-female sex ratio than in the general population, as the Trivers-Willard hypothesis (Trivers & Willard, 1973) applied to literature predicts. In order to test these hypotheses, two famous literary canons were chosen. Extensive biographical research was conducted on the writers’ mating successes. The first hypothesis was confirmed; the second one, controlling for life age, only for number of mates but not entirely regarding number of children. The latter finding was discussed with respect to, among others, the availability of effective contraception especially in the 20th century. The third hypothesis was not satisfactorily supported. The fourth hypothesis was partially supported. For the 20th century part of the German list, the secondary sex ratio differed with high statistical significance from the ratio assumed to be valid for a general population.

Evolutionary psychology and evolutionary developmental psychology : Understanding the evolution of human behavior and development

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