THE APPLICATION OF CIRRHOSIS MORTALITY AND SUICIDE MORTALITY AS INDICATORS FOR ALCOHOLISM PLANNING

This study provides a review of the current alcoholism planning process of the Houston-Galveston planning process of the Houston-Galveston Area Council, an agency carrying out planning for a thirteen county region in surrounding Houston, Texas. The four central groups involved in this planning are identified, and the role that each plays and how it effects the planning outcomes is discussed.^ The most substantive outcome of the Houston-Galveston Area Council's alcoholism planning, the Regional Alcoholism/Alcohol Abuse Plan is examined. Many of the shortcomings in the data provided, and the lack of other data necessary for planning are offered.^ A problem oriented planning model is presented as an alternative to the Houston-Galveston Area Council's current service oriented approach to alcoholism planning. Five primary phases of the model, identification of the problem, statement of objectives, selection of alternative programs, implementation, and evaluation, are presented, and an overview of the tasks involved in the application of this model to alcoholism planning is offered.^ A specific aspect of the model, the use of problem status indicators is explored using cirrhosis and suicide mortality data. A review of the literature suggests that based on five criteria, availability, subgroup identification, validity, reliability, and sensitivity, both suicide and cirrhosis are suitable as indicators of the alcohol problem when combined with other indicators.^ Cirrhosis and suicide mortality data are examined for the thirteen county Houston-Galveston Region for the years 1969 through 1976. Data limitations preclude definite conclusions concerning the alcohol problem in the region. Three hypotheses about the nature of the regional alcohol problem are presented. First, there appears to be no linear trend in the number of alcoholics that are at risk of suicide and cirrhosis mortality. Second, the number of alcoholics in the metropolitan areas seems to be greater than the number of rural areas. Third, the number of male alcoholics at risk of cirrhosis and suicide mortality is greater than the number of female alcoholics.^

Increased carbon dioxide availability alters phytoplankton stoichiometry and affects carbon cycling and growth of a marine planktonic herbivore

Rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have led to increased CO2 concentrations in the oceans. This enhanced carbon availability to the marine primary producers has the potential to change their nutrient stoichiometry, and higher carbon to nutrient ratios are expected. As a result, the quality of the primary producers as food for herbivores may change. Here, we present experimental work showing the effect of feeding Rhodomonas salina grown under different pCO2 (200, 400 and 800 µatm) on the copepod Acartia tonsa. The rate of development of copepodites decreased with increasing CO2 availability to the algae. The surplus carbon in the algae was excreted by the copepods, with younger stages (copepodites) excreting most of their surplus carbon through respiration, and adult copepods excreting surplus carbon mostly as DOC. We consider the possible consequences of different excretory pathways for the ecosystem. A continued increase in the CO2 availability for primary production, together with changes in the nutrient loading of coastal ecosystems, may cause changes in the trophic links between primary producers and herbivores.

Availability of sequences of aquatic and terrestrial taxa in genetic databases (GenBank and BOLD - the Barcode of Life Database) in 2010, 2012 and 2016

Correct species identifications are of tremendous importance for invasion ecology, as mistakes could lead to misdirecting limited resources against harmless species or inaction against problematic ones. DNA barcoding is becoming a promising and reliable tool for species identifications, however the efficacy of such molecular taxonomy depends on gene region(s) that provide a unique sequence to differentiate among species and on availability of reference sequences in existing genetic databases. Here, we assembled a list of aquatic and terrestrial non-indigenous species (NIS) and checked two leading genetic databases for corresponding sequences of six genome regions used for DNA barcoding. The genetic databases were checked in 2010, 2012, and 2016. All four aquatic kingdoms (Animalia, Chromista, Plantae and Protozoa) were initially equally represented in the genetic databases, with 64, 65, 69, and 61% of NIS included, respectively. Sequences for terrestrial NIS were present at rates of 58 and 78% for Animalia and Plantae, respectively. Six years later, the number of sequences for aquatic NIS increased to 75, 75, 74, and 63% respectively, while those for terrestrial NIS increased to 74 and 88% respectively. Genetic databases are marginally better populated with sequences of terrestrial NIS of plants compared to aquatic NIS and terrestrial NIS of animals. The rate at which sequences are added to databases is not equal among taxa. Though some groups of NIS are not detectable at all based on available data - mostly aquatic ones - encouragingly, current availability of sequences of taxa with environmental and/or economic impact is relatively good and continues to increase with time.

Soil water availability modulation over estimated relative yield losses in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) due to ozone exposure

The approach developed by Fuhrer in 1995 to estimate wheat yield losses induced by ozone and modulated by the soil water content (SWC) was applied to the data on Catalonian wheat yields. The aim of our work was to apply this approach and adjust it to Mediterranean environmental conditions by means of the necessary corrections. The main objective pursued was to prove the importance of soil water availability in the estimation of relative wheat yield losses as a factor that modifies the effects of tropospheric ozone on wheat, and to develop the algorithms required for the estimation of relative yield losses, adapted to the Mediterranean environmental conditions. The results show that this is an easy way to estimate relative yield losses just using meteorological data, without using ozone fluxes, which are much more difficult to calculate. Soil water availability is very important as a modulating factor of the effects of ozone on wheat; when soil water availability decreases, almost twice the amount of accumulated exposure to ozone is required to induce the same percentage of yield loss as in years when soil water availability is high.

Residual effect of synthetic Zn chelates on the availability of this metal in different soils under waterlogged conditions.

Adding Zn improves crop growth, increases seed yield and also positively affects nutritional quality. After Zn fertilization, there is normally a period of several years in which residual effects provide an adequate supply of Zn to successive crops. Immediately after the application of Zn sources water-soluble Zn slowly but continually decreases. Various factors, including time and moisture conditions, affect the aging process and modify the solubility of the metal in soil and therefore its availability. In previous experiments, we studied the residual effect of synthetic chelates, obtained that the amounts of potentially available Zn decreased in the second cropping year due to aging processes. The present study was undertaken to verify variations in the residual effects of applying four different synthetic Zn sources

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

Diffuse illuminance availability on horizontal and vertical surfaces at Madrid, Spain

The overall objective of this work is to provide diffuse illuminance availability at Madrid (Spain) through a statistical analysis of illuminance values corresponding to a long-term data series. The illuminance values are obtained from irradiance measurements by means of different empirical models for luminous efficacy. The values of diffuse illuminance on a horizontal and on vertical surfaces facing the four cardinal points are estimated and the different aspects related to daylight availability in an area with specific climatic conditions are analyzed. The experimental data consist of global and diffuse irradiance measurements on a horizontal surface provided by the National Meteorological Agency in Spain (AEMET) for Madrid. These data consist of hourly values measured in the period of 1980–2005. The statistical results derived correspond to a daylight typical year for the five surfaces considered. This information will be useful to building experts to estimate natural illumination availability when daylighting techniques are applied in building design with the main aim of electric energy savings.

Brown trout redd superimposition in relation to spawning habitat availability

The relationship between redd superimposition and spawning habitat availability was investigated in the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population inhabiting the river Castril (Granada, Spain). Redd surveys were conducted in 24 river sections to estimate the rate of redd superimposition. Used and available microhabitat was evaluated to compute the suitable spawning habitat (SSH) for brown trout. After analysing the microhabitat characteristics positively selected by females, SSH was defined as an area that met all the following five requirements: water depth between 10 and 50 cm, mean water velocity between 30 and 60 cm s)1, bottom water velocity between 15 and 60 cm s)1, substrate size between 4 and 30 mm and no embeddedness. Simple regression analyses showed that redd superimposition was not correlated with redd numbers, SSH or redd density. A simulation-based analysis was performed to estimate the superimposition rate if redds were randomly placed inside the SSH. This analysis revealed that the observed superimposition rate was higher than expected in 23 of 24 instances, this difference being significant (P menor que 0.05) in eight instances and right at the limit of statistical significance (P = 0.05) in another eight instances. Redd superimposition was high in sections with high redd density. High superimposition however was not exclusive to sections with high redd density and was found in moderate- and low-redd-density sections. This suggests that factors other than habitat availability are also responsible for redd superimposition. We argue that female preference for spawning over previously excavated redds may be the most likely explanation for high superimposition at lower densities.

Improving availability of mobile networks using a cluster routing protocol with redundant cluster head

We show a cluster based routing protocol in order to improve the convergence of the clusters and of the network it is proposed to use a backup cluster head. The use of a event discrete simulator is used for the implementation and the simulation of a hierarchical routing protocol called the Backup Cluster Head Protocol (BCHP). Finally it is shown that the BCHP protocol improves the convergence and availability of the network through a comparative analysis with the Ad Hoc On Demand Distance Vector (AODV)[1] routing protocol and Cluster Based Routing Protocol (CBRP)[2]

A scalable SIEM correlation engine and its application to the Olympic Games IT infrastructure

The security event correlation scalability has become a major concern for security analysts and IT administrators when considering complex IT infrastructures that need to handle gargantuan amounts of events or wide correlation window spans. The current correlation capabilities of Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), based on a single node in centralized servers, have proved to be insufficient to process large event streams. This paper introduces a step forward in the current state of the art to address the aforementioned problems. The proposed model takes into account the two main aspects of this ?eld: distributed correlation and query parallelization. We present a case study of a multiple-step attack on the Olympic Games IT infrastructure to illustrate the applicability of our approach.

Probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture and associated crop net margins.

Rising water demands are difficult to meet in many regions of the world. In consequence, under meteorological adverse conditions, big economic losses in agriculture can take place. This paper aims to analyze the variability of water shortage in an irrigation district and the effect on farmer?s income. A probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture in the irrigation district is performed, through a supply-system simulation approach, considering stochastically generated series of stream-flows. Net margins associated to crop production are as well estimated depending on final water allocations. Net margins are calculated considering either single-crop farming, either a polyculture system. In a polyculture system, crop distribution and water redistribution are calculated through an optimization approach using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for several scenarios of irrigation water availability. Expected net margins are obtained by crop and for the optimal crop and water distribution. The maximum expected margins are obtained for the optimal crop combination, followed by the alfalfa monoculture, maize, rice, wheat and finally barley. Water is distributed as follows, from biggest to smallest allocation: rice, alfalfa, maize, wheat and barley.

Managing drought economic effects through insurance schemes based on local water availability.

In many arid or semi-arid Mediterranean regions, agriculture is dependent on irrigation. When hydrological drought phenomena occur, farmers suffer from water shortages, incurring important economic losses. Yet, there is not agricultural insurance available for lack of irrigation water. This work attempts to evaluate hydrological drought risk and its economic impact on crop production in order to provide the basis for the design of drought insurance for irrigated arable crops. With this objective a model that relates water availability with expected yields is developed. Crop water requirements are calculated from evapotranspiration, effective rainfall and soil water balance. FAO?s methodology and AquaCrop software have been used to establish the relationship between water allocations and crop yields. The analysis is applied to the irrigation zone ?Riegos de Bardenas?, which is located in the Ebro river basin, northeast Spain, to the main arable crops in the area. Results show the fair premiums of different hydrological drought insurance products. Whole-farm insurance or irrigation district insurance should be preferable to crop specific insurance due to the drought management strategies used by farmers.

Water option contracts for reducing water supply risks: an application to the Tagus-Segura Transfer

El agua es un recurso cada vez más escaso y valioso. Por ello, los recursos hídricos disponibles deben asignarse de una forma eficiente entre los diferentes usos. El cambio climático aumentará la frecuencia y severidad de los eventos extremos, y podría incrementar la demanda de agua de los cultivos. El empleo de mecanismos flexibles de asignación de agua puede ser imprescindible para hacer frente a este aumento en la variabilidad del balance hídrico y para asegurar que los riesgos de suministro, y no solo los recursos, son compartidos de manera eficiente entre los usuarios. Los mercados de agua permiten la reasignación de los recursos hídricos, favoreciendo su transferencia desde los usos de menor a los de mayor valor. Diferentes tipos de mercados de agua se han establecido en diferentes partes del mundo, ayudando a los participantes a afrontar los problemas de escasez de agua en esas zonas. En España, los intercambios de agua están permitidos desde 1999, aunque la participación de los usuarios en el mercado ha sido limitada. Hay varios aspectos de los mercados de agua en España que deben mejorarse. Esta tesis, además de proponer una serie de cambios en el marco regulatorio, propone la introducción de contratos de opción de agua como una posible mejora. La principal ventaja de este tipo de contratos es la estabilidad legal e institucional que éstos proporcionan tanto a compradores como vendedores. Para apoyar esta propuesta, se han llevado a cabo diferentes análisis que muestran el potencial de los contratos de opción como herramienta de reducción del riesgo asociado a una oferta de agua inestable. La Cuenca del Segura (Sureste de España), la Cuenca del Tajo y el Acueducto Tajo- Segura han sido seleccionados como casos de estudio. Tres análisis distintos aplicados a dicha región se presentan en esta tesis: a) una evaluación de los contratos de opción como mecanismo para reducir los riesgos de disponibilidad de agua sufridos por los regantes en la Cuenca del Segura; b) un marco teórico para analizar las preferencias de los regantes por diferentes mecanismos de gestión del riesgo de disponibilidad de agua, su disposición a pagar por ellos y los precios aproximados de estos instrumentos (seguro de sequía y contratos de opción de agua); y c) una evaluación del papel de los contratos de opción en las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua de una comunidad de regantes ante una oferta de agua incierta. Los resultados muestran el potencial de reducción del riesgo de los contratos de opción para regantes en España, pero pueden ser extrapolados a otros sectores o regiones. Las principales conclusiones de esta tesis son: a) la agricultura será uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. Si los precios del agua aumentan, la rentabilidad de los cultivos puede caer hasta niveles negativos, lo que podría dar lugar al abandono de cultivos de regadío en algunas zonas de España. Las políticas de cambio climático y de agua deben estar estrechamente coordinadas para asegurar un uso de agua eficiente y la rentabilidad de la agricultura; b) aunque los mercados de agua han ayudado a algunos usuarios a afrontar problemas de disponibilidad del recurso en momentos de escasez, hay varios aspectos que deben mejorarse; c) es necesario desarrollar mercados de agua más flexibles y estables para garantizar una asignación eficiente de los recursos entre los usuarios de agua; d) los resultados muestran los beneficios derivados del establecimiento de un contrato de opción entre usuarios de agua del Tajo y del Segura para reducir el riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la cuenca receptora; e) la disposición a pagar de los regantes por un contrato de opción de agua o un seguro de sequía hidrológica, que representa el valor que tienen estos mecanismos para aquellos usuarios de agua que se enfrentan a riesgos relacionados con la disponibilidad del recurso, es consistente con los resultados obtenidos en estudios previos y superior al precio de mercado de estos instrumentos, lo que favorece la viabilidad de estos mecanismos de gestión del riesgo ; y f) los contratos de opción podrían ayudar a optimizar las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua bajo incertidumbre, proporcionando más estabilidad y flexibilidad que los mercados temporales de agua. ABSTRACT Water is becoming increasingly scarce and valuable. Thus, existing water resources need to be efficiently allocated among users. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events, and it may also increase irrigated crops' water demand. The implementation of flexible allocation mechanisms could be essential to cope with this increased variability of the water balance and ensure that supply risks, and not only water resources, are also efficiently shared and managed. Water markets allow for the reallocation of water resources from low to high value uses. Different water trading mechanisms have been created in different parts of the world and have helped users to alleviate water scarcity problems in those areas. In Spain, water trading is allowed since 1999, although market activity has been limited. There are several issues in the Spanish water market that should be improved. This thesis, besides proposing several changes in the legislative framework, proposes the introduction of water option contracts as a potential improvement. The main advantage for both buyer and seller derived from an option contract is the institutional and legal stability it provides. To support this proposal, different analyses have been carried out that show the potential of option contracts as a risk reduction tool to manage water supply instability. The Segura Basin (Southeast Spain), the Tagus Basin and the Tagus-Segura inter-basin Transfer have been selected as the case study. Three different analyses applied to this region are presented in this thesis: a) an evaluation of option contracts as a mechanisms to reduce water supply availability risks in the Segura Basin; b) a theoretical framework for analyzing farmer’s preferences for different water supply risk management tools and farmers’ willingness to pay for them, together with the assessment of the prices of these mechanisms (drought insurance and water option contracts); and c) an evaluation of the role of option contracts in water procurement decisions under uncertainty. Results show the risk-reduction potential of option contracts for the agricultural sector in Spain, but these results can be extrapolated to other sectors or regions. The main conclusions of the thesis are: a) agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by climate change. With higher water tariffs, crop’s profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. Climate change and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops’ profitability; b) although Spanish water markets have alleviated water availability problems for some users during water scarcity periods, there are several issues that should be improved; c) more flexible and stable water market mechanisms are needed to allocate water resources and water supply risks among competing users; d) results show the benefits derived from the establishment of an inter-basin option contract between water users in the Tagus and the Segura basins for reducing water supply availability risks in the recipient area; e) irrigators’ willingness to pay for option contracts or drought insurance, that represent the value that this kind of trading mechanisms has for water users facing water supply reliability problems, are consistent with results obtained in previous works and higher than the prices of this risk management tools, which shows the feasibility of these mechanisms; and f) option contracts would help to optimize water procurement decisions under uncertainty, providing more flexibility and stability than the spot market.

Aridity modulates N availability in arid and semiarid Mediterranean grasslands

While much is known about the factors that control each component of the terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycle, it is less clear how these factors affect total N availability, the sum of organic and inorganic forms potentially available to microorganisms and plants. This is particularly true for N-poor ecosystems such as drylands, which are highly sensitive to climate change and desertification processes that can lead to the loss of soil nutrients such as N. We evaluated how different climatic, abiotic, plant and nutrient related factors correlate with N availability in semiarid Stipa tenacissima grasslands along a broad aridity gradient from Spain to Tunisia. Aridity had the strongest relationship with N availability, suggesting the importance of abiotic controls on the N cycle in drylands. Aridity appeared to modulate the effects of pH, plant cover and organic C (OC) on N availability. Our results suggest that N transformation rates, which are largely driven by variations in soil moisture, are not the direct drivers of N availability in the studied grasslands. Rather, the strong relationship between aridity and N availability could be driven by indirect effects that operate over long time scales (decades to millennia), including both biotic (e.g. plant cover) and abiotic (e.g. soil OC and pH). If these factors are in fact more important than short-term effects of precipitation on N transformation rates, then we might expect to observe a lagged decrease in N availability in response to increasing aridity. Nevertheless, our results suggest that the increase in aridity predicted with ongoing climate change will reduce N availability in the Mediterranean basin, impacting plant nutrient uptake and net primary production in semiarid grasslands throughout this region.

Availability and uptake of trace elements in a forage rotation under conservation and plough tillage

After 14 years under conventional plough tillage (CT) or conservation minimum tillage (MT), the soil available Al, Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn (0-5, 5-15 and 15-30 cm layers) and their plant uptake were evaluated during two years in a ryegrass-maize forage rotation in NW Spain (t emperate-humid region). The three-way ANOVA showed that trace element concentrations in soil were mainly influenced by sampling date, followed by soil depth and tillage system (35-73 %, 7-58 % and 3- 11 % of variance explained, respectively). Excepting for Fe (CT) and Al (CT and MT), the elemental concentrations decreased with depth, the stratification being stronger under MT. For soil available Al, Fe, Mn and Cu, the concentrations were higher in CT than in MT (5-15 and 15-30 cm layers) or were not affected by tillage system (0-5 cm). In contrast, the available Zn contents were higher in MT than CT at the soil surface and did not differ in deeper layers. The concentration of Al, Fe and Cu in crops were not influenced by tillage system, which explain 22 % of Mn variance in maize (CT > MT in the more humid year) and 18 % of Zn variance in ryegrass (MT > CT in both years). However, in the summer crop (maize) the concentrations of Fe, Mn and Zn tended to be higher in MT than in CT under drought conditions, while the opposite was true in the year without water limitation. Therefore, under the studied conditions of climate, soil, tillage and crop rotation, little influence of tillage system on crop nutritive value would be expected. To minimize the potential deficiency of Zn (maize) and Cu (maize and ryegrass) on crop yields the inclusion of these micro-nutrients in fertilization schedule is reco mmended, as well as liming to alleviate Al toxicity on maize crops.