358 resultados para Anticipation


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Humans, like other animals, alter their behavior depending on whether a threat is close or distant. We investigated spatial imminence of threat by developing an active avoidance paradigm in which volunteers were pursued through a maze by a virtual predator endowed with an ability to chase, capture, and inflict pain. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that as the virtual predator grew closer, brain activity shifted from the ventromedial prefrontal cortex to the periaqueductal gray. This shift showed maximal expression when a high degree of pain was anticipated. Moreover, imminence-driven periaqueductal gray activity correlated with increased subjective degree of dread and decreased confidence of escape. Our findings cast light on the neural dynamics of threat anticipation and have implications for the neurobiology of human anxiety-related disorders.

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Standard theories of decision-making involving delayed outcomes predict that people should defer a punishment, whilst advancing a reward. In some cases, such as pain, people seem to prefer to expedite punishment, implying that its anticipation carries a cost, often conceptualized as 'dread'. Despite empirical support for the existence of dread, whether and how it depends on prospective delay is unknown. Furthermore, it is unclear whether dread represents a stable component of value, or is modulated by biases such as framing effects. Here, we examine choices made between different numbers of painful shocks to be delivered faithfully at different time points up to 15 minutes in the future, as well as choices between hypothetical painful dental appointments at time points of up to approximately eight months in the future, to test alternative models for how future pain is disvalued. We show that future pain initially becomes increasingly aversive with increasing delay, but does so at a decreasing rate. This is consistent with a value model in which moment-by-moment dread increases up to the time of expected pain, such that dread becomes equivalent to the discounted expectation of pain. For a minority of individuals pain has maximum negative value at intermediate delay, suggesting that the dread function may itself be prospectively discounted in time. Framing an outcome as relief reduces the overall preference to expedite pain, which can be parameterized by reducing the rate of the dread-discounting function. Our data support an account of disvaluation for primary punishments such as pain, which differs fundamentally from existing models applied to financial punishments, in which dread exerts a powerful but time-dependent influence over choice.

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As a key issue in spatial cognitive developmental research, the coding of object location plays an important role in children's cognitive development. The development of location coding is a precondition for children's adaptation to their environments, and the development of corresponding ability could enhance children's adaptation ability and improve their synthetic diathesis. In this paper, under the improved paradigm of object searching, 7-, 9- and 11-year-olds of urban primary school students were involved in two studies including the total of four experiments. The children were examined upon the ability to encode target location in terms of the distance between two landmarks, three points on a line, the intersection of two lines, or the corresponding points on two parallel lines. The experiments were designed to explore the primary school children's cognitive developmental process upon spatial object location and the correlative restricting factors. From the studies, the following conclusions were drawn: 1)The ability of 7-year-olds to represent target location in terms of the relationships of points and lines is in the inceptive stage and appears unstable. Meanwhile, the same ability of 9-year-olds is in a state of fast developing. The 9-year-olds' performance depends on how difficult the task is. It is stable when task is easy while unstable when task becomes difficult. The ability of 11-year-olds reaches much-developed state and the group's performance is independent of the difficulty of tasks. 2) The correlate coefficient is significant between Raven Standard Inference ability levels and the performance of representing target location in terms of the relationships of points. Those children with good performance in Raven Standard Inference Test have good performance in target location coding. The case is true for all different age groups. As of the task in terms of the relationships of lines, the correlate coefficient between Raven Standard Inference ability levels and children's performance of representing target location is found significant only for the 7-year-olds' group. The case is not true for the groups of 9- and 11-year-olds. It is also found that the correlate coefficient is significant between the sum of performance and Raven Standard Inference ability levels, and that is true for all age groups. 3) Effects from task variable exist upon children's above-mentioned cognitive performance. The effects are different according to different difficulty levels of tasks. Also, they are different according to the different ages. 4) The subjects who failed in the 'no cues for encoding given' situation were able to improve their performances when the cues of encoding were given. Therefore it is possible to improve the primary school children's corresponding cognitive performance by providing the cues of encoding. 5) Two kinds of efficient strategies were used to solve the problem. They are trial-comparison strategy and anticipation-directed strategy.

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Wydział Filologii Polskiej i Klasycznej: Instytut Filologii Słowiańskiej

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BACKGROUND: In a 1994 Ninth Circuit decision on the remand of Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Judge Alex Kosinski wrote that science done for the purpose of litigation should be subject to more stringent standards of admissibility than other science. OBJECTIVES: We analyze this proposition by considering litigation-generated science as a subset of science involving conflict of interest. DISCUSSION: Judge Kosinski's formulation suggests there may be reasons to treat science involving conflict of interest differently but raises questions about whether litigation-generated science should be singled out. In particular we discuss the similar problems raised by strategically motivated science done in anticipation of possible future litigation or otherwise designed to benefit the sponsor and ask what special treatment, if any, should be given to science undertaken to support existing or potential future litigation. CONCLUSION: The problems with litigation-generated science are not special. On the contrary, they are very general and apply to much or most science that is relevant and reliable in the courtroom setting.

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Popular medieval English romances were composed and received within the social consciousness of a distinctly patriarchal culture. This study examines the way in which the dynamic of these texts is significantly influenced by the consequences of female endeavour, in the context of an autonomous feminine presence in both the real and imagined worlds of medieval England, and the authority with which this is presented in various narratives, with a particular focus on Sir Thomas Malory’s Morte Darthur. Chapter One of this study establishes the social and economic positioning of the female in fifteenth-century England, and her capacity for literary engagement; I will then apply this model of female autonomy and authority to a wider discussion of texts contemporary with Malory in Chapters Two and Three, in anticipation of a more detailed study of Le Morte Darthur in Chapters Four and Five. My research explores the female presence and influence in these texts according to certain types: namely the lover, the victim, the ruler, and the temptress. In the case of Malory, the crux of my observations centres on the paradox of the capacity for power in perceived vulnerability, incorporating the presentation of women in this patriarchal culture as being vulnerable and in need of protection, while simultaneously acting as a significant threat to chivalric society by manipulating this apparent fragility, to the detriment of the chivalric knight. In this sense, women can be perceived as being an architect of the romance world, while simultaneously acting as its saboteur. In essence, this study offers an innovative interpretation of female autonomy and authority in medieval romance, presenting an exploration of the physical, intellectual, and emotional placement of women in both the historical and literary worlds of fifteenth-century England, while examining the implications of female conduct on Malory’s Arthurian society.

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Many pieces of legislation have been implemented with the anticipation - or justification - that they will have a deterrent effect. Deterrence was clearly argued in the debate preceding the Swedish prostitution law prohibiting the purchase of sexual services, but less so regarding the Dangerous Dogs Act, which was a very rapid response to a particular moral panic. As it turned out, the Swedish law has had a deterrent effect on street prostitution in that 'respectable' buyers were deterred. It will be argued that it is this very 'respectability' that makes deterrence work in this case. Regarding the Dangerous Dogs Act, the owners of Pit Bulls and other banned breeds are not considered 'respectable' and the banning might have had the reversed effect - increasing the attraction of these dogs, rather than deterring the ownership. Apart from deterrence and its consequences, the rendering invisible of key actors - buyers and owners respectively - and the use of symbolic legislation to promote moral messages will also be considered. [From the Author]

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The Arctic Ocean is, on average, the shallowest of Earth’s oceans. Its vast continental shelf areas, which account for approximately half of the Arctic Ocean’s total area, are heavily influenced by the surrounding land masses through river run-off and coastal erosion. As a main area of deep water formation, the Arctic is one of the main «engines» of global ocean circulation, due to large freshwater inputs, it is also strongly stratified. The Arctic Ocean’s complex oceanographic configuration is tightly linked to the atmosphere, the land, and the cryosphere. The physical dynamics not only drive important climate and global circulation patterns, but also control biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem dynamics. Current changes in Arctic sea-ice thickness and distribution, air and water temperatures, and water column stability are resulting in measurable shifts in the properties and functioning of the ocean and its ecosystems. The Arctic Ocean is forecast to shift to a seasonally ice-free ocean resulting in changes to physical, chemical, and biological processes. These include the exchange of gases across the atmosphere-ocean interface, the wind-driven ciruclation and mixing regimes, light and nutrient availability for primary production, food web dynamics, and export of material to the deep ocean. In anticipation of these changes, extending our knowledge of the present Arctic oceanography and these complex changes has never been more urgent.

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Moving to a rhythm necessitates precise timing between the movement of the chosen limb and the timing imposed by the beats. However, the temporal information specifying the moment when a beat will sound (the moment onto which one must synchronise one's movement) is not continuously provided by the acoustic array. Because of this informational void, the actors need some form of prospective information that will allow them to act sufficiently ahead of time in order to get their hand in the right place at the right time. In this acoustic interception study, where participants were asked to move between two targets in such a way that they arrived and stopped in the target zone at the same time as a beat sounded, we tested a model derived from tau-coupling theory (Lee DN (1998) Ecol Psychol 10:221-250). This model attempts to explain the form of a potential timing guide that specifies the duration of the inter-beat intervals and also describes how this informational guide can be used in the timing and guidance of movements. The results of our first experiment show that, for inter-beat intervals of less than 3 s, a large proportion of the movement (over 70%) can be explained by the proposed model. However, a second experiment, which augments the time between beats so that it surpasses 3 s, shows a marked decline in the percentage of information/movement coupling. A close analysis of the movement kinematics indicates a lack of control and anticipation in the participants' movements. The implications of these findings, in light of other research studies, are discussed.

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A variety of short time delays inserted between pairs of subjects were found to affect their ability to synchronize a musical task. The subjects performed a clapping rhythm together from separate sound-isolated rooms via headphones and without visual contact. One-way time delays between pairs were manipulated electronically in the range of 3 to 78 ms. We are interested in quantifying the envelope of time delay within which two individuals produce synchronous per- formances. The results indicate that there are distinct regimes of mutually coupled behavior, and that `natural time delay'o¨delay within the narrow range associated with travel times across spatial arrangements of groups and ensembleso¨supports the most stable performance. Conditions outside of this envelope, with time delays both below and above it, create characteristic interaction dynamics in the mutually coupled actions of the duo. Trials at extremely short delays (corresponding to unnaturally close proximity) had a tendency to accelerate from anticipation. Synchronization lagged at longer delays (larger than usual physical distances) and produced an increasingly severe deceleration and then deterioration of performed rhythms. The study has implications for music collaboration over the Internet and suggests that stable rhythmic performance can be achieved by `wired ensembles' across distances of thousands of kilometers.

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Changes to software requirements not only pose a risk to the successful delivery of software applications but also provide opportunity for improved usability and value. Increased understanding of the causes and consequences of change can support requirements management and also make progress towards the goal of change anticipation. This paper presents the results of two case studies that address objectives arising from that ultimate goal. The first case study evaluated the potential of a change source taxonomy containing the elements ‘market’, ‘organisation’, ‘vision’, ‘specification’, and ‘solution’ to provide a meaningful basis for change classification and measurement. The second case study investigated whether the requirements attributes of novelty, complexity, and dependency correlated with requirements volatility. While insufficiency of data in the first case study precluded an investigation of changes arising due to the change source of ‘market’, for the remainder of the change sources, results indicate a significant difference in cost, value to the customer and management considerations. Findings show that higher cost and value changes arose more often from ‘organisation’ and ‘vision’ sources; these changes also generally involved the co-operation of more stakeholder groups and were considered to be less controllable than changes arising from the ‘specification’ or ‘solution’ sources. Results from the second case study indicate that only ‘requirements dependency’ is consistently correlated with volatility and that changes coming from each change source affect different groups of requirements. We conclude that the taxonomy can provide a meaningful means of change classification, but that a single requirement attribute is insufficient for change prediction. A theoretical causal account of requirements change is drawn from the implications of the combined results of the two case studies.