Russia's best ally: The situation of the Russian oil sector and forecast for its future. OSW Study 39/2012

Oil is a strategic raw material for Russia and one of fundamental significance for the functioning of the state and its future. Taxes on oil production and exports are the most important source of state budget revenues which guarantee Russia maintains its political and economic stability. Russia is building its international position on the basis of its vast raw material and energy potential. While a great number of various publications have been devoted to Russian gas and Gazprom, surprisingly little research has been done into the present condition and possible future developments of the Russian oil sector, despite the fact that oil has and will have a much greater impact than gas on the functioning and the future of Russia. The main objective of this text is to describe the present situation of the Russian oil sector, its problems and the challenges it is posing, as well as the government’s policy towards this key branch of the Russian economy. This will be an introduction to an attempt to answer to the questions about the possible future production and the export levels of Russian oil, also broken down into the European and Asian directions.

Investigation of the applicability of LVDC microgrids in utility distribution in Russia

The research towards efficient, reliable and environmental-friendly power supply solutions is producing growing interest to the “Smart Grid” approach for the development of the electricity networks and managing the increasing energy consumption. One of the novel approaches is an LVDC microgrid. The purpose of the research is to analyze the possibilities for the implementation of LVDC microgrids in public distribution networks in Russia. The research contains the analysis of the modern Russian electric power industry, electricity market, electricity distribution business, regulatory framework and standardization, related to the implementation of LVDC microgrid concept. For the purpose of the economic feasibility estimation, a theoretical case study for comparing low voltage AC and medium voltage AC with LVDC microgrid solutions for a small settlement in Russia is presented. The results of the market and regulatory framework analysis along with the economic comparison of AC and DC solutions show that implementation of the LVDC microgrid concept in Russia is possible and can be economically feasible. From the electric power industry and regulatory framework point of view, there are no serious obstacles for the LVDC microgrids in Russian distribution networks. However, the most suitable use cases at the moment are expected to be found in the electrification of remote settlements, which are isolated from the Unified Energy System of Russia.

Misrepresenting Russia : Western perceptions of the Putin years, 1999-2008

L’ascension de Vladimir Poutine à la présidence de la Russie fut un point tournant dans l’histoire de la Russie et de ses relations avec l’occident. Lorsqu’il est comparé aux politiques plus pro-occidentales de son prédécesseur, Boris Eltsine, le nouveau nationalisme russe de Poutine changea la relation de la Russie avec l’Occident. Ce texte utilise des articles publiés dans quatre journaux influents de l’Occident—le Washington Post, le New York Times, le Guardian et l’Independent—pour montrer comment l’Occident percevait la Russie entre 1999 et 2008. Poutine fut longuement critiqué pour avoir transformé la « démocratie », instauré par l’Occident dans les années postsoviétiques, en autocratie qui reflétait plus le contexte politico-social traditionnel russe. La Russie refusa de se soumettre aux intérêts de l’Occident. Les médias populaires occidentaux, reflétant les intérêts de leurs gouvernements respectifs, ont rondement critiqué la nouvelle direction de la Russie. L’obligation perçue par les médias occidentaux de promouvoir la « démocratie » autour du globe les a menés à condamner Poutine et la Russie, ce qui créa un sentiment de « russophobie ».

Concessionary nature of public-private partnerships in Russia and Kazakhstan: a critical review

This article provides a critical overview of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Russia and Kazakhstan and examines the rationale underpinning such partnerships. The analysis discusses the reasons why governments in Russia and Kazakhstan focus principally on concessions as a form of PPP and goes on to provide a critical assessment of the key approaches and situational factors relating to concessions in these two countries. The article finds that external globalization impulses pressed Russia and Kazakhstan to align their policies and institutions with western orthodoxy and perceived international best practice. An ever-increasing emphasis on use of PPPs has been a key feature of this alignment. However, the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have increasingly resorted to concessions as progress with the development and implementation of Western style PPP models has stalled. This article concludes that the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have demonstrated an overly optimistic approach to PPP and as a result may have substantially understated their overall concessional risks and costs. Features of Russian and Kazakhstani PPP arrangements such as ambiguity in output specification and extensive reliance on government subsidies, combined with lack of expertise of private partners, may significantly decrease concession benefits.

Patterns of regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia

This doctoral thesis aims at contributing to the literature on transition economies focusing on the Russian Federations and in particular on regional income convergence and fertility patterns. The first two chapter deal with the issue of income convergence across regions. Chapter 1 provides an historical-institutional analysis of the period between the late years of the Soviet Union and the last decade of economic growth and a presentation of the sample with a description of gross regional product composition, agrarian or industrial vocation, labor. Chapter 2 contributes to the literature on exploratory spatial data analysis with a application to a panel of 77 regions in the period 1994-2008. It provides an analysis of spatial patterns and it extends the theoretical framework of growth regressions controlling for spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Chapter 3 analyses the national demographic patterns since 1960 and provides a review of the policies on maternity leave and family benefits. Data sources are the Statistical Yearbooks of USSR, the Statistical Yearbooks of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the Demographic Yearbooks of Russia. Chapter 4 analyses the demographic patterns in light of the theoretical framework of the Becker model, the Second Demographic Transition and an economic-crisis argument. With national data from 1960, the theoretically issue of the pro or countercyclical relation between income and fertility is graphically analyzed and discussed, together with female employment and education. With regional data after 1994 different panel data models are tested. Individual level data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey are employed using the logit model. Chapter 5 employs data from the Generations and Gender Survey by UNECE to focus on postponement and second births intentions. Postponement is studied through cohort analysis of mean maternal age at first birth, while the methodology used for second birth intentions is the ordered logit model.

Anna, sette anni al fronte. Analisi e proposta di sottotitolaggio del film documentario Anna, sem' let na linii fronta

The aim of the present work was to make more accessible a documentary film that focuses on the life and work of the Russian journalist killed in Moscow in 2006: Anna Politkovskaja. The film, entitled “Anna, seven years at the frontline” is a collage of several video-interviews with Politkovskaja’s friends and colleagues, in which they talk about who she was, what was her job about and how she tried to make the public aware about the Chechen wars. Working on this translation gave me a unique opportunity to deepen one of the most controversial issues in the recent history of Russia and to create a useful final product for those who have a particular interest in this topic but do not have the necessary linguistic competence to understand this documentary film.

Social Work in Republic of Buryatia/Russia

The Republic of Buryatia is situated in Eastern Sibiria, the eastern coast of Baikal Lake. The total area of the republic is 351 thousand square kilometers. The capital of Republic is Ulan-Ude. The modern social-economic situation in Russia is extremely paradoxical and multiaspectual - negative processes take place almost in all spheres of the society. The introduction of market economy principles, the process of privatisation, and the last economic crises in the Federation of Russia have brought many social phenomena - among them increasing poverty, homelessness and still high rate of unemployment are the worst one. It makes the changes in the state social welfare programmes and functioning patterns be implemented. Social problems are especially very important in the so-called "depressive" regions of Russia (Buryatia Republic is among those regions). The most important is the staff supplement of social services and the level of professionalism of people who work there. This problem consists of two aspects: first, the number of specialists with professional education of social workers is not enough; second, the level of professionalism of the workers is very low.

Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean

Introduction: Chemical composition of water determines its physical properties and character of processes proceeding in it: freezing temperature, volume of evaporation, density, color, transparency, filtration capacity, etc. Presence of chemical elements in water solution confers waters special physical properties exerting significant influence on their circulation, creates necessary conditions for development and inhabitance of flora and fauna, and imparts to the ocean waters some chemical features that radically differ them from the land waters (Alekin & Liakhin, 1984). Hydrochemical information helps to determine elements of water circulation, convection depth, makes it easier to distinguish water masses and gives additional knowledge of climatic variability of ocean conditions. Hydrochemical information is a necessary part of biological research. Water chemical composition can be the governing characteristics determining possibility and limits of use of marine objects, both stationary and moving in sea water. Subject of investigation of hydrochemistry is study of dynamics of chemical composition, i.e. processes of its formation and hydrochemical conditions of water bodies (Alekin & Liakhin 1984). The hydrochemical processes in the Arctic Ocean are the least known. Some information on these processes can be obtained in odd publications. A generalizing study of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean based on expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975 has been carried out by Rusanov et al. (1979). The "Atlas of the World Ocean: the Arctic Ocean" contains a special section "Hydrochemistry" (Gorshkov, 1980). Typical vertical profiles, transects and maps for different depths - 0, 100, 300, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000 m are given in this section for the following parameters: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH and alkaline-chlorine coefficient. The maps were constructed using the data of expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975. The illustrations reflect main features of distribution of the hydrochemical elements for multi-year period and represent a static image of hydrochemical conditions. Distribution of the hydrochemical elements on the ocean surface is given for two seasons - winter and summer, for the other depths are given mean annual fields. Aim of the present Atlas is description of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean on the basis of a greater body of hydrochemical information for the years 1948-2000 and using the up-to-date methods of analysis and electronic forms of presentation of hydrochemical information. The most wide-spread characteristics determined in water samples were used as hydrochemical indices. They are: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH, total alkalinity, nitrite and nitrate. An important characteristics of water salt composition - "salinity" has been considered in the Oceanographic Atlas of the Arctic Ocean (1997, 1998). Presentation of the hydrochemical characteristics in this Hydrochemical Atlas is wider if compared with that of the former Atlas (Gorshkov, 1980). Maps of climatic distribution of the hydrochemical elements were constructed for all the standard depths, and seasonal variability of the hydrochemical parameters is given not only for the surface, but also for the underlying standard depths up to 400 m and including. Statistical characteristics of the hydrochemical elements are given for the first time. Detailed accuracy estimates of initial data and map construction are also given in the Atlas. Calculated values of mean-root deviations, maximum and minimum values of the parameters demonstrate limits of their variability for the analyzed period of observations. Therefore, not only investigations of chemical statics are summarized in the Atlas, but also some elements of chemical dynamics are demonstrated. Digital arrays of the hydrochemical elements obtained in nodes of a regular grid are the new form of characteristics presentation in the Atlas. It should be mentioned that the same grid and the same boxes were used in the Atlas, as those that had been used by creation of the US-Russian climatic Oceanographic Atlas. It allows to combine hydrochemical and oceanographic information of these Atlases. The first block of the digital arrays contains climatic characteristics calculated using direct observational data. These climatic characteristics were not calculated in the regions without observations, and the information arrays for these regions have gaps. The other block of climatic information in a gridded form was obtained with the help of objective analysis of observational data. Procedure of the objective analysis allowed us to obtain climatic estimates of the hydrochemical characteristics for the whole water area of the Arctic Ocean including the regions not covered by observations. Data of the objective analysis can be widely used, in particular, in hydrobiological investigations and in modeling of hydrochemical conditions of the Arctic Ocean. Array of initial measurements is a separate block. It includes all the available materials of hydrochemical observations in the form, as they were presented in different sources. While keeping in mind that this array contains some amount of perverted information, the authors of the Atlas assumed it necessary to store this information in its primary form. Methods of data quality control can be developed in future in the process of hydrochemical information accumulation. It can be supposed that attitude can vary in future to the data that were rejected according to the procedure accepted in the Atlas. The hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean is the first specialized and electronic generalization of hydrochemical observations in the Arctic Ocean and finishes the program of joint efforts of Russian and US specialists in preparation of a number of atlases for the Arctic. The published Oceanographic Atlas (1997, 1998), Atlas of Arctic Meteorology and Climate (2000), Ice Atlas of the Arctic Ocean prepared for publication and Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean represent a united series of fundamental generalizations of empirical knowledge of Arctic Ocean nature at climatic level. The Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean was elaborated in the result of joint efforts of the SRC of the RF AARI and IARC. Dr. Ye. Nikiforov was scientific supervisor of the Atlas, Dr. R. Colony was manager on behalf of the USA and Dr. L. Timokhov - on behalf of Russia.

Russia's Clandestine War against the United States: The Resurrection of the KGB and Russian Organized Crime Post 9/11

As American leadership has narrowly focused on fighting global terror in Iraq and Afghanistan, the modern version of the KGB, now known as the FSB, has been conducting continuous clandestine warfare operations against the United States. These warfare operations include strategic economic and political partnerships with anti-American entities worldwide and direct embedding of double agents in the US intelligence community. This paper investigates the role of Russia's cultural history leading to the merger of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and Russian Organized Crime (ROC). This paper concludes that the FSB is the most pervasive security threat to the United States and that employing Russian native and heritage speakers of Russian in the US intelligence community compromises US national security.

Russia goes on the offensive ahead of the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius. OSW Commentary No. 115, 30.09.2013

In recent weeks, Russia has stepped up its efforts to prevent a group of former Soviet republics from tightening their relations with the European Union. The intensification of these efforts comes ahead of the upcoming Eastern Partnership summit, scheduled to take place in Vilnius on 28-29 November. It is expected that during the summit Kiev will sign the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (AA) initialled in March 2012, including an agreement for a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Meanwhile, Moldova, Armenia and Georgia are expected to initial similar documents, effectively accepting their terms and conditions, and paving the way for their official signing in the near future. Moscow has always viewed the relations between the EU and the post-Soviet states as a threat to its own influence in the region. Consequently, any attempts to tighten these relations have been actively opposed by Russia. The EU’s Eastern Partnership programme, launched in 2009, has posed a particular challenge to Moscow’s policies in the region.. Russia responded by rolling out a Eurasian integration project, which began in 2010 with the establishment of the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, and is expected to culminate in the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union by 2015. Moscow’s overarching objective has been to persuade the countries in the region, especially Ukraine, to adopt an unambiguously pro-Russian geopolitical stance and to join the integration project proposed by the Kremlin. The Russian government hopes that this would permanently place these states in Moscow’s sphere of influence and at the same time prevent them from developing closer relations with Brussels. Russia has regularly taken actions aimed at showcasing the benefits of integration with the Customs Union (particularly, by promising preferential pricing of Russian energy resources) and at the same time it has adopted measures highlighting the pitfalls of retaining a pro-European orientation (mainly by imposing occasional trade sanctions). The upcoming summit in Vilnius, during which Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia and Georgia could lock themselves on to a pro-European course, has spurred Moscow to intensify its efforts to torpedo a successful outcome of the Vilnius meeting, with a view to slowing down or even blocking the possibility of closer cooperation between the EU and the former Soviet republics.

Crimean Tatars after Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. OSW Commentary No. 141, 30.06.2014

After Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Crimean Tatars face the necessity of working out a modus vivendi to cope with the difficult situation which now confronts them. On the one hand, the desire to remain in their homeland, which they regained after exile in Soviet times, is an imperative encouraging them to accept the status quo, while on the other, the fear of Russia and the strong relations of Crimean Tatar elites with Kyiv would favour opposing the present state of affairs. Another fact pointing in favour of an agreement with Moscow is that Kyiv has not attempted to defend Crimea and has not been active in demanding its return to Ukraine, which has undermined Kyiv’s authority in the eyes of the Tatars. Therefore, the leaders of the Mejlis of Crimean Tatars (the national self-government) act carefully, trying to avoid actions which could be seen as provocative and thus liable to incite retribution. It could be expected that this course of action will continue, although it faces ever greater difficulties in the context of the Russian authorities’ adoption of a strongly anti-Tatar policy, which is likely to evoke more radical attitudes among the Crimean Tatars.

How far do the borders of the west extend? Russian/Polish strategic conflicts in the period 1990-2010. OSW Report, 2010-03-18

From a historical perspective, the last two decades can almost be regarded as a 'golden age' of Polish-Russian relations. This is the first time in several centuries that a sovereign Poland and Russia have been able to develop mutual relations without resorting to force; moreover, they have established a bilateral legal basis and put into practice its provisions on "the inviolability of borders, territorial integrity, non-interference with internal affairs and the nations' right to self-determination. This does not change the fact that since 1990 the atmosphere between the two countries has much more often been chilly and tense. Contrary to the widely-held belief, Polish-Russian conflicts do not stem from genetic Russophobia on the part of Poland, or irrational prejudice on the part of Russia. Their substance is real and concerns strategic issues. At the deepest level, though, this is a dispute about how far the borders of the Western world extend, and about the Russian Federation's sphere of influence. However, it is not a clash between two states; moreover, Poland is certainly not the most important actor in this regard, although due to the historical context and its geographic location, it is one of the countries that lies closest to the 'line of contact', and is therefore particularly entangled in the disagreement.

Russian gas industry - current condition and prospects; New regional 'in-security' system in Central Asia; Caspian oil and gas: the facts at the end of the year 2000. OSW Study 1/2001

Russian gas industry: The current condition of the gas industry is one of the most crucial factors influencing the Russian state·s functioning, internal situation and international position. Not only is gas the principal energy resource in Russia, it also subsidises other sectors of the economy. Status of the main European gas exporter strengthens also Russia's importance in the international arena. New regional in-security: Ten years have passed since the Central Asian states declared their independence, but their relationship with Russia still remains close, and the latter treats them as its exclusive zone of influence. A crucial reason for keeping Central Asia within the orbit of Moscow·s influence is the fact that Russia exercises control over the most important transport routes out of the region of raw materials for the power industry, on which the economic development of Asia depends on. But this is the only manifestation of Central Asia·s economic dependence on Russia. Moscow lacks solid economic instruments (i.e. investment input or power industry dependence) to shape the situation in the region. Caspian oil and gas: Caspian stocks of energy resources are not, and most probably will not be, of any great significance on the world scale. Nevertheless it is the Caspian region which will have the opportunity to become an oil exporter which will reduce the dependence of the European countries on Arabian oil, and which will guarantee Russia the quantities of gas which are indispensable both for meeting its internal demands and for maintaining its current level of export. For Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the confirmation of the existence of successive oil strata is not only an opportunity to increase income, but also an additional bargaining chip in the game for the future of the whole region. The stake in this game is the opportunity to limit the economic, and by extension the political influences of Russia in the region.

Demographic situation in Russia. OSW Study 24/2006

Throughout the history of Russia, periods of deep chaos have been accompanied by demographic crises. This was the case during the Time of Troubles, or Smutnoye Vremya, in the seventeenth century, and during the period of wars and revolutions in the early twentieth century, which brought the Bolsheviks to power. Similarly, the break-up of the USSR also coincided with a demographic crisis. However, while the previous crises had been caused by factors such as war, famine, epidemics or repressive policies, and were followed by periods of rapid population growth once these factors had ceased to operate, the current crisis is systemic and structural. To a large extent, it has been occasioned by cultural factors such as changing family models and the roles of women in today's society. In Russia, the effect of these factors on population increase is exacerbated by excessive alcohol consumption, an culture of inadequate working conditions which leads to many accidents at work, and healthcare deficiencies (only c. 3% of the GDP is spent on healthcare annually).