The use of Ground Penetrating Radar and alternative geophysical techniques for assessing embankments and dykes safety

The research is part of a survey for the detection of the hydraulic and geotechnical conditions of river embankments funded by the Reno River Basin Regional Technical Service of the Region Emilia-Romagna. The hydraulic safety of the Reno River, one of the main rivers in North-Eastern Italy, is indeed of primary importance to the Emilia-Romagna regional administration. The large longitudinal extent of the banks (several hundreds of kilometres) has placed great interest in non-destructive geophysical methods, which, compared to other methods such as drilling, allow for the faster and often less expensive acquisition of high-resolution data. The present work aims to experience the Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) for the detection of local non-homogeneities (mainly stratigraphic contacts, cavities and conduits) inside the Reno River and its tributaries embankments, taking into account supplementary data collected with traditional destructive tests (boreholes, cone penetration tests etc.). A comparison with non-destructive methodologies likewise electric resistivity tomography (ERT), Multi-channels Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW), FDEM induction, was also carried out in order to verify the usability of GPR and to provide integration of various geophysical methods in the process of regular maintenance and check of the embankments condition. The first part of this thesis is dedicated to the explanation of the state of art concerning the geographic, geomorphologic and geotechnical characteristics of Reno River and its tributaries embankments, as well as the description of some geophysical applications provided on embankments belonging to European and North-American Rivers, which were used as bibliographic basis for this thesis realisation. The second part is an overview of the geophysical methods that were employed for this research, (with a particular attention to the GPR), reporting also their theoretical basis and a deepening of some techniques of the geophysical data analysis and representation, when applied to river embankments. The successive chapters, following the main scope of this research that is to highlight advantages and drawbacks in the use of Ground Penetrating Radar applied to Reno River and its tributaries embankments, show the results obtained analyzing different cases that could yield the formation of weakness zones, which successively lead to the embankment failure. As advantages, a considerable velocity of acquisition and a spatial resolution of the obtained data, incomparable with respect to other methodologies, were recorded. With regard to the drawbacks, some factors, related to the attenuation losses of wave propagation, due to different content in clay, silt, and sand, as well as surface effects have significantly limited the correlation between GPR profiles and geotechnical information and therefore compromised the embankment safety assessment. Recapitulating, the Ground Penetrating Radar could represent a suitable tool for checking up river dike conditions, but its use has significantly limited by geometric and geotechnical characteristics of the Reno River and its tributaries levees. As a matter of facts, only the shallower part of the embankment was investigate, achieving also information just related to changes in electrical properties, without any numerical measurement. Furthermore, GPR application is ineffective for a preliminary assessment of embankment safety conditions, while for detailed campaigns at shallow depth, which aims to achieve immediate results with optimal precision, its usage is totally recommended. The cases where multidisciplinary approach was tested, reveal an optimal interconnection of the various geophysical methodologies employed, producing qualitative results concerning the preliminary phase (FDEM), assuring quantitative and high confidential description of the subsoil (ERT) and finally, providing fast and highly detailed analysis (GPR). Trying to furnish some recommendations for future researches, the simultaneous exploitation of many geophysical devices to assess safety conditions of river embankments is absolutely suggested, especially to face reliable flood event, when the entire extension of the embankments themselves must be investigated.

New techniques for the remote sensing of foliar nitrogen concentration in forest ecosystems.

During my Doctoral study I researched about the remote detection of canopy N concentration in forest stands, its potentials and problems, under many overlapping perspectives. The study consisted of three parts. In S. Rossore 2000 dataset analysis, I tested regressions between N concentration and NIR reflectances derived from different sources (field samples, airborne and satellite sensors). The analysis was further expanded using a larger dataset acquired in year 2009 as part of a new campaign funded by the ESA. In both cases, a good correlation was observed between Landsat NIR, using both TM (2009) and ETM+ (2000) imagery, and N concentration measured by a CHN elemental analyzer. Concerning airborne sensors I did not obtain the same good results, mainly because of the large FOV of the two instruments, and to the anisotropy of vegetation reflectance. We also tested the relation between ground based ASD measures and nitrogen concentration, obtaining really good results. Thus, I decided to expand my study to the regional level, focusing only on field and satellite measures. I analyzed a large dataset for the whole of Catalonia, Spain; MODIS imagery was used, in consideration of its spectral characteristics and despite its rather poor spatial resolution. Also in this case a regression between nitrogen concentration and reflectances was found, but not so good as in previous experiences. Moreover, vegetation type was found to play an important role in the observed relationship. We concluded that MODIS is not the most suitable satellite sensor in realities like Italy and Catalonia, which present a patchy and inhomogeneous vegetation cover; so it could be utilized for the parameterization of eco-physiological and biogeochemical models, but not for really local nitrogen estimate. Thus multispectral sensors similar to Landsat Thematic Mapper, with better spatial resolution, could be the most appropriate sensors to estimate N concentration.

Operational research applied to regional healthcare system

In this thesis we focus on optimization and simulation techniques applied to solve strategic, tactical and operational problems rising in the healthcare sector. At first we present three applications to Emilia-Romagna Public Health System (SSR) developed in collaboration with Agenzia Sanitaria e Sociale dell'Emilia-Romagna (ASSR), a regional center for innovation and improvement in health. Agenzia launched a strategic campaign aimed at introducing Operations Research techniques as decision making tools to support technological and organizational innovations. The three applications focus on forecast and fund allocation of medical specialty positions, breast screening program extension and operating theater planning. The case studies exploit the potential of combinatorial optimization, discrete event simulation and system dynamics techniques to solve resource constrained problem arising within Emilia-Romagna territory. We then present an application in collaboration with Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del Lazio that focuses on population demand of service allocation to regional emergency departments. Finally, a simulation-optimization approach, developed in collaboration with INESC TECH center of Porto, to evaluate matching policies for the kidney exchange problem is discussed.

Postvoid residuals remain unchanged in patients with postoperative thoracic epidural analgesia after thoracotomy

We found in previous studies that thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA) after open renal surgery via lumbotomy significantly impaired bladder function with decreased detrusor contractility and increased postvoid residuals under urodynamic assessment. Here we evaluated the effect of TEA on bladder emptying in patients undergoing thoracotomy.

Comparison of analgesic efficacy of preoperative or postoperative carprofen with or without preincisional mepivacaine epidural anesthesia in canine pelvic or femoral fracture repair

OBJECTIVE: To compare analgesic efficacy of preoperative versus postoperative administration of carprofen and to determine, if preincisional mepivacaine epidural anesthesia improves postoperative analgesia in dogs treated with carprofen. STUDY DESIGN: Blind, randomized clinical study. ANIMALS: Dogs with femoral (n=18) or pelvic (27) fractures. METHODS: Dogs were grouped by restricted randomization into 4 groups: group 1 = carprofen (4 mg/kg subcutaneously) immediately before induction of anesthesia, no epidural anesthesia; group 2 = carprofen immediately after extubation, no epidural anesthesia; group 3 = carprofen immediately before induction, mepivacaine epidural block 15 minutes before surgical incision; and group 4 = mepivacaine epidural block 15 minutes before surgical incision, carprofen after extubation. All dogs were administered carprofen (4 mg/kg, subcutaneously, once daily) for 4 days after surgery. Physiologic variables, nociceptive threshold, lameness score, pain, and sedation (numerical rating scale [NRS], visual analog scale [VAS]), plasma glucose and cortisol concentration, renal function, and hemostatic variables were measured preoperatively and at various times after surgery. Dogs with VAS pain scores >30 were administered rescue analgesia. RESULTS: Group 3 and 4 dogs had significantly lower pain scores and amount of rescue analgesia compared with groups 1 and 2. VAS and NRS pain scores were not significantly different among groups 1 and 2 or among groups 3 and 4. There was no treatment effect on renal function and hemostatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative carprofen combined with mepivacaine epidural anesthesia had superior postoperative analgesia compared with preoperative carprofen alone. When preoperative epidural anesthesia was performed, preoperative administration of carprofen did not improve postoperative analgesia compared with postoperative administration of carprofen. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Preoperative administration of systemic opioid agonists in combination with regional anesthesia and postoperative administration of carprofen provides safe and effective pain relieve in canine fracture repair.

Hemodynamic effects of thoracic epidural analgesia in ovine hyperdynamic endotoxemia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA) is increasingly used for perioperative analgesia. If patients with TEA develop sepsis or systemic inflammatory response subsequent to extended surgery the question arises if it would be safe to continue TEA with its beneficial effects of improving gastrointestinal perfusion and augmenting tissue oxygenation. A major concern in this regard is hemodynamic instability that might ensue from TEA-induced vasodilation. The objective of the present study was to assess the effects of TEA on systemic and pulmonary hemodynamics in a sepsis model of hyperdynamic endotoxemia. METHODS: After a baseline measurement in healthy sheep (n = 14), Salmonella thyphosa endotoxin was continuously infused at a rate of 10 ngxkg(-1)xmin(-1) over 16 hours. The surviving animals (n = 12) were then randomly assigned to 1 of 2 study groups. In the treatment group (n = 6), continuous TEA was initiated with 0.1 mLxkg(-1) bupivacaine 0.125% and maintained with 0.1 mLxkg(-1)xh(-1). In the control group (n = 6) the same amount of isotonic sodium saline solution was injected at the same rate through the epidural catheter. RESULTS: In both experimental groups cardiac index increased and systemic vascular resistance decreased concurrently (each P < .05). Functional epidural blockade in the TEA group was confirmed by sustained suppression of the cutaneous (or panniculus) reflex. During the observational period of 6 hours neither systemic nor pulmonary circulatory variables were impaired by TEA. CONCLUSIONS: From a hemodynamic point of view, TEA presents as a safe treatment option in sepsis or systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

Ultrasound-guided blocks for the treatment of chronic pain

Ultrasound (US) is an emerging imaging technique in interventional pain management. The main advantages are the identification of soft tissues, vessels, and nerves, without exposing patients and personnel to radiation, the possibility to perform continuous imaging, and the visualization of the fluid injected in a real-time fashion. Possible applications are nerve blocks of the cervical and lumbar zygapophysial joints, stellate ganglion block, intercostal nerve blocks, occipital nerve blocks, blocks of the inguinal nerves, peripheral nerve blocks of the extremities, blocks of painful stump neuromas, caudal epidural injections, and injections of tender points. US may also be used for destructive procedures, such as cryoanalgesia, radiofrequency lesions, or chemical neurolysis. The increasing published data available suggest that US has a potential usefulness in interventional pain management, but also limitations. There is still a need for clinical trials investigating efficacy and safety of US-guided pain procedures. Until these studies are made, fluoroscopy or computed tomography remain the gold standard for most interventional pain procedures.

Regional structural characteristics of bovine periodontal ligament samples and their suitability for biomechanical tests

Mechanical testing of the periodontal ligament requires a practical experimental model. Bovine teeth are advantageous in terms of size and availability, but information is lacking as to the anatomy and histology of their periodontium. The aim of this study, therefore, was to characterize the anatomy and histology of the attachment apparatus in fully erupted bovine mandibular first molars. A total of 13 teeth were processed for the production of undecalcified ground sections and decalcified semi-thin sections, for NaOH maceration, and for polarized light microscopy. Histomorphometric measurements relevant to the mechanical behavior of the periodontal ligament included width, number, size and area fraction of blood vessels and fractal analysis of the two hard-soft tissue interfaces. The histological and histomorphometric analyses were performed at four different root depths and at six circumferential locations around the distal and mesial roots. The variety of techniques applied provided a comprehensive view of the tissue architecture of the bovine periodontal ligament. Marked regional variations were observed in width, surface geometry of the two bordering hard tissues (cementum and alveolar bone), structural organization of the principal periodontal ligament connective tissue fibers, size, number and numerical density of blood vessels in the periodontal ligament. No predictable pattern was observed, except for a statistically significant increase in the area fraction of blood vessels from apical to coronal. The periodontal ligament width was up to three times wider in bovine teeth than in human teeth. The fractal analyses were in agreement with the histological observations showing frequent signs of remodeling activity in the alveolar bone - a finding which may be related to the magnitude and direction of occlusal forces in ruminants. Although samples from the apical root portion are not suitable for biomechanical testing, all other levels in the buccal and lingual aspects of the mesial and distal roots may be considered. The bucco-mesial aspect of the distal root appears to be the most suitable location.

Epidural Analgesia during Open Radical Prostatectomy Does Not Improve Long-Term Cancer-Related Outcome: A Retrospective Study in Patients with Advanced Prostate Cancer

Background A beneficial effect of regional anesthesia on cancer related outcome in various solid tumors has been proposed. The data on prostate cancer is conflicting and reports on long-term cancer specific survival are lacking. Methods In a retrospective, single-center study, outcomes of 148 consecutive patients with locally advanced prostate cancer pT3/4 who underwent retropubic radical prostatectomy (RRP) with general anesthesia combined with intra- and postoperative epidural analgesia (n=67) or with postoperative ketorolac-morphine analgesia (n=81) were reviewed. The median observation time was 14.00 years (range 10.87-17.75 yrs). Biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free, local and distant recurrence-free, cancer-specific, and overall survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to analyze clinicopathologic variables associated with disease progression and death. Results The survival estimates for BCR-free, local and distant recurrence-free, cancer-specific survival and overall survival did not differ between the two groups (P=0.64, P=0.75, P=0.18, P=0.32 and P=0.07). For both groups, higher preoperative PSA (hazard ratio (HR) 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.02, P<0.0001), increased specimen Gleason score (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.46, P=0.007) and positive nodal status (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.03-2.67, P=0.04) were associated with higher risk of BCR. Increased specimen Gleason score predicted death from prostate cancer (HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.65-3.68, P<0.0001). Conclusions General anaesthesia combined with epidural analgesia did not reduce the risk of cancer progression or improve survival after RRP for prostate cancer in this group of patients at high risk for disease progression with a median observation time of 14.00 yrs.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Application of the Input-Output Decomposition Technique to China's Regional Economies

Structural decomposition techniques based on input-output table have become a widely used tool for analyzing long term economic growth. However, due to limitations of data, such techniques have never been applied to China's regional economies. Fortunately, in 2003, China's Interregional Input-Output Table for 1987 and Multi-regional Input-Output Table for 1997 were published, making decomposition analysis of China's regional economies possible. This paper first estimates the interregional input-output table in constant price by using an alternative approach: the Grid-Search method, and then applies the standard input-output decomposition technique to China's regional economies for 1987-97. Based on the decomposition results, the contributions to output growth of different factors are summarized at the regional and industrial level. Furthermore, interdependence between China's regional economies is measured and explained by aggregating the decomposition factors into the intraregional multiplier-related effect, the feedback-related effect, and the spillover-related effect. Finally, the performance of China's industrial and regional development policies implemented in the 1990s is briefly discussed based on the analytical results of the paper.

Application of factor decomposition techniques to vertical specialisation measurements

The increasing importance of vertical specialisation (VS) trade has been a notable feature of rapid economic globalisation and regional integration. In an attempt to understand countries’ depth of participation in global production chains, many Input-Output based VS indicators have been developed. However, most of them focus on showing the overall magnitude of a country’s VS trade, rather than explaining the roles that specific sectors or products play in VS trade and what factors make the VS change over time. Changes in vertical specialisation indicators are, in fact, determined by mixed and complex factors such as import substitution ratios, types of exported goods and domestic production networks. In this paper, decomposition techniques are applied to VS measurement based on the OECD Input-Output database. The decomposition results not only help us understand the structure of VS at detailed sector and product levels, but also show us the contributions of trade dependency, industrial structures of foreign trade and domestic production system to a country’s vertical specialisation trade.