A comparative analysis of the accuracy and uncertainty in real estate and macroeconomic forecasts

We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background

This study analyses the influence of vegetation structure (i.e. leaf area index and canopy cover) and seasonal background changes on moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS)-simulated reflectance data in open woodland. Approximately monthly spectral reflectance and transmittance field measurements (May 2011 to October 2013) of cork oak tree leaves (Quercus suber) and of the herbaceous understorey were recorded in the region of Ribatejo, Portugal. The geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) model was used to simulate MODIS response (red, near-infrared) and to calculate vegetation indices, investigating their response to changes in the structure of the overstorey vegetation and to seasonal changes in the understorey using scenarios corresponding to contrasting phenological status (dry season vs. wet season). The performance of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is discussed. Results showed that SAVI and EVI were very sensitive to the emergence of background vegetation in the wet season compared to NDVI and that shading effects lead to an opposing trend in the vegetation indices. The information provided by this research can be useful to improve our understanding of the temporal dynamic of vegetation, monitored by vegetation indices.

Empirical analysis of the Lieb-Oxford bound in ions and molecules

Universal properties of the Coulomb interaction energy apply to all many-electron systems. Bounds on the exchange-correlation energy, in particular, are important for the construction of improved density functionals. Here we investigate one such universal property-the Lieb-Oxford lower bound-for ionic and molecular systems. In recent work [J Chem Phys 127, 054106 (2007)], we observed that for atoms and electron liquids this bound may be substantially tightened. Calculations for a few ions and molecules suggested the same tendency, but were not conclusive due to the small number of systems considered. Here we extend that analysis to many different families of ions and molecules, and find that for these, too, the bound can be empirically tightened by a similar margin as for atoms and electron liquids. Tightening the Lieb-Oxford bound will have consequences for the performance of various approximate exchange-correlation functionals. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Analysis of the ABC Program resources

This is the executive summary of the second of four reports that compose, among others, the activities of the second working year of the ABC Plan Observatory1 . It aims to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the ABC Program's performance – the main line of credit for the financing of low-carbon agriculture in Brazil. In addition to presenting high points of the results of the 2013/14 crop year, it also reveals a regional and state overview of the distribution of resources and a focus on the Legal Amazon situation regarding the adoption of low carbon agriculture methods in the region. The main theme for the analysis is the spatial distribution of the ABC Program's credit in the country and the reasons, bottlenecks and opportunities for the expansion of more sustainable production methods, especially regarding the conditions of Brazilian technical support and its activities among rural producers.

Analysis of the economic and financial relations between Latin American and the Caribbean and the BRICS group

This document has been prepared in compliance with Activity III.1.2 of the Work Programme of SELA for the year 2015, entitled “Analysis of the economic and financial relations between Latin America and the Caribbean and the BRICS countries”. The document comprises an introduction, four chapters and a final section with the conclusions and recommendations stemming from the study. Chapter I describes the economic performance of the BRICS countries, their economic relations with Latin America and the Caribbean and the functioning of the development banks of the member countries. Chapter II assesses the financial architecture of Latin America and the Caribbean and explores the needs for financing in the region. Chapter III deals with the regulatory frameworks governing public and private investments in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Bilateral Investment Treaties with the BRICS countries. Finally, Chapter IV describes the main features of the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve Agreement of the BRICS

Analysis of the different forms of application and types of cutting fluid used in plunge cylindrical grinding using conventional and superabrasive CBN grinding wheels

The work reported here involved an investigation into the grinding process, one of the last finishing processes carried out on a production line. Although several input parameters are involved in this process, attention today focuses strongly on the form and amount of cutting fluid employed, since these substances may be seriously pernicious to human health and to the environment, and involve high purchasing and maintenance costs when utilized and stored incorrectly. The type and amount of cutting fluid used directly affect some of the main output variables of the grinding process which are analyzed here, such as tangential cutting force, specific grinding energy, acoustic emission, diametrical wear, roughness, residual stress and scanning electron microscopy. To analyze the influence of these variables, an optimised fluid application methodology was developed (involving rounded 5, 4 and 3 turn diameter nozzles and high fluid application pressures) to reduce the amount of fluid used in the grinding process and improve its performance in comparison with the conventional fluid application method (of diffuser nozzles and lower fluid application pressure). To this end, two types of cutting fluid (a 5% synthetic emulsion and neat oil) and two abrasive tools (an aluminium oxide and a superabrasive CBN grinding wheel) were used. The results revealed that, in every situation, the optimised application of cutting fluid significantly improved the efficiency of the process, particularly the combined use of neat oil and CBN grinding wheel. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the E-J Curve of HTS Tapes Under DC and AC Magnetic Fields at 77 K

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Electricity, hot water and cold water production from biomass. Energetic and economical analysis of the compact system of cogeneration run with woodgas from a small downdraft gasifier

Wood gasification technologies to convert the biomass into fuel gas stand out. on the other hand, producing electrical energy from stationary engine is widely spread, and its application in rural communities where the electrical network doesn't exist is very required. The recovery of exhaust gases (engine) is a possibility that makes the system attractive when compared with the same components used to obtain individual heat such as electric power. This paper presents an energetic alternative to adapt a fixed bed gasifier with a compact cogeneration system in order to cover electrical and thermal demands in a rural area and showing an energy solution for small social communities using renewable fuels. Therefore, an energetic and economical analysis from a cogeneration system producing electric energy, hot and cold water, using wooden gas as fuel from a small-sized gasifier was calculated. The energy balance that includes the energy efficiency (electric generation as well as hot and cold water system; performance coefficient and the heat exchanger, among other items), was calculated. Considering the annual interest rates and the amortization periods, the costs of production of electrical energy, hot and cold water were calculated, taking into account the investment, the operation and the maintenance cost of the equipments. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the effects of damping in the models validation

The search for better performance in the structural systems has been taken to more refined models, involving the analysis of a growing number of details, which should be correctly formulated aiming at defining a representative model of the real system. Representative models demand a great detailing of the project and search for new techniques of evaluation and analysis. Model updating is one of this technologies, it can be used to improve the predictive capabilities of computer-based models. This paper presents a FRF-based finite element model updating procedure whose the updating variables are physical parameters of the model. It includes the damping effects in the updating procedure assuming proportional and non proportional damping mechanism. The updating parameters are defined at an element level or macro regions of the model. So, the parameters are adjusted locally, facilitating the physical interpretation of the adjusting of the model. Different tests for simulated and experimental data are discussed aiming at evaluating the characteristics and potentialities of the methodology.

Archival information and organic information: a conceptual analysis of the Brazilian literature

Information has increasingly become a crucial resource for organizations that want to remain competitive in the market. For this reason, analysis and a correct understanding of informational types that are present in these environments become relevant to achieving the highest levels of performance. The aim of this paper is to review the literature of the concepts of organic and archival information within the organizational context/business environments. This is still an emerging theoretical field and therefore is conducive to intense discussions. We point out elements that help to characterize and distinguish these two types of information.

Impedance Spectroscopy Analysis of the Effect of TiO2 Blocking Layers on the Efficiency of Dye Sensitized Solar Cells

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of the performance of pharmacists in terms of providing health assistance at a university hospital

OBJETIVE: This study aimed to assess the practices of pharmacists in Hospital Care. Method - we interviewed 20 pharmacists from the Pharmacy Division by applying a structured instrument, in September 2005. This instrument addressed aspects related to the main activities at the Hospital Pharmacy, which were assessed according to indicators organized into five areas: sector management, hospital pharmacotechniques, committee activities, information and pharmacotherapeutic follow-up, as well as teaching and research activities.RESULTS: the Pharmacy Division considered all structural aspects under analysis as essential for the good development and application of its services. We found that some essential services, such as the Medication Information Service and Pharmacotherapeutic Follow-up, were absent. Pharmacist professionals were dissatisfied about human resource and physical structure dimensioning, and they presented as not very active in terms of Pharmaceutical Care.CONCLUSION: Results indicate that care is still centered on the drug, with few clinical activities. We suggest reformulations in service management, particularly in the management of pharmacists.

Analysis of the distances covered by first division Brazilian soccer players obtained with an automatic tracking method

Methods based on visual estimation still is the most widely used analysis of the distances that is covered by soccer players during matches, and most description available in the literature were obtained using such an approach. Recently, systems based on computer vision techniques have appeared and the very first results are available for comparisons. The aim of the present study was to analyse the distances covered by Brazilian soccer players and compare the results to the European players', both data measured by automatic tracking system. Four regular Brazilian First Division Championship matches between different teams were filmed. Applying a previously developed automatic tracking system (DVideo, Campinas, Brazil), the results of 55 outline players participated in the whole game (n = 55) are presented. The results of mean distances covered, standard deviations (s) and coefficient of variation (cv) after 90 minutes were 10,012 m, s = 1,024 m and cv = 10.2%, respectively. The results of three-way ANOVA according to playing positions, showed that the distances covered by external defender (10642 ± 663 m), central midfielders (10476 ± 702 m) and external midfielders (10598 ± 890 m) were greater than forwards (9612 ± 772 m) and forwards covered greater distances than central defenders (9029 ± 860 m). The greater distances were covered in standing, walking, or jogging, 5537 ± 263 m, followed by moderate-speed running, 1731 ± 399 m; low speed running, 1615 ± 351 m; high-speed running, 691 ± 190 m and sprinting, 437 ± 171 m. Mean distance covered in the first half was 5,173 m (s = 394 m, cv = 7.6%) highly significant greater (p < 0.001) than the mean value 4,808 m (s = 375 m, cv = 7.8%) in the second half. A minute-by-minute analysis revealed that after eight minutes of the second half, player performance has already decreased and this reduction is maintained throughout the second half. ©Journal of Sports Science and Medicine (2007).

Electromyographic analysis of the rectus abdominis muscle in pelvic retroversion and the decrease of the lower limbs

We often face Patients searching for rehabilitation for lower back disorders during the physiotherapeutic routine, and it is known that the abdominal muscle, specially the rectus abdominis muscle, aid the stabilization of the pelvis. Therefore, this paper analyzes the electrical activity of the rectus abdominis muscle in the pelvic retroversion in dorsal decubitus and in orthostatic position and in the lowering of the lower limbs. 30 healthy students, male and female, 17-40 yr, divided into two groups - Group 1: 15 volunteers (pelvic balance); Group 2 (pelvic unbalance) took part in this study. The electrical activity of the right and left supra-umbilical and infra-umbilical portions of the rectus abdominis muscle was detected. The mean RMS values from three attempts ftom the electromyographic traces were usedfor the analysis of the electrical activity. The RMS value was submitted to the normalization process. The data were submitted to statistic treatment by the Friedman test, and the analyses of the means and standard deviation towards a level of significance of 95%. The results demonstrated that the portions of the rectus abdominis muscle presented low electrical activity for the groups studiedfor pelvic retroversion either in dorsal decubitus or and orthostatic position. However, the decreasing movement of the lower limbs towards the portions of the rectus abdominis muscle presented more significant electrical activity whereas the lower portions presented higher activity than the higher ones for Group 2.