Constructing a new individual-based model of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica): do we need to include two loci rather than one?

In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.

Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

Mathematical model of an arterial stenosis, allowing for tethering

Closed-form solutions are presented for approximate equations governing the pulsatile flow of blood through models of mild axisymmetric arterial stenosis, taking into account the effect of arterial distensibility. Results indicate the existence of back-flow regions and the phenomenon of flow-reversal in the cross-sections. The effects of pulsatility of flow and elasticity of vessel wall for arterial blood flow through stenosed vessels are determined.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

General model of a foam bed reactor

A general model of a foam bed reactor has been developed which rigorously accounts for the extent of gas absorption with chemical reaction occurring in both the storage and foam sections. Its applicability extends to a wide spectrum of reaction velocities. The possibilities of the predominance of the bulk-liquid reaction in the storage section or the absorption with reaction in the foam section can be handled as merely special cases of the general analysis. The importance of foam for carrying out a particular gas-liquid reaction is characterised by a criterion in terms of the fractional rate of reaction in the foam section. Trends of variations in the concentrations of dissolved free A, solute B, and gas-phase A with time of operation of the reactor are presented. The nature of the variation in the fractional rate of reaction in the foam section with time, at different reaction velocities, and the effect of the liquid flow rate (across the storage section) on the transience are also illustrated. Finally, the predictions of the general model have been validated using the available experimental data on the oxidation of sodium sulphide in a foam bed reactor. The agreement between the experimental and the present theoretical information is fairly good, apart from being more insightful than all the previous models of this reactor.

Structural model for the Cu-B site of dopamine beta-hydroxylase: Crystal structure of a copper(II) complex showing N3OS coordination with an axial sulfur ligation

A copper(II) complex containing a NSO-donor Schiff base and NN-donor 2,2'-bipyridine has been prepared and structurally characterized. The square pyramidal complex with an axial sulfur ligation is a structural model for the CUB site of dopamine-hydroxylase in its oxidized form. The copper(II) complex is catalytically active in the oxidation of ascorbic acid by dioxygen mediated by a copper(I) species which is proposed to have a four-coordinate structure with a N3S coordination geometry.

A model for tool-use traditions in primates: implications for the coevolution of culture and cognition

Inspired by the demonstration that tool-use variants among wild chimpanzees and orangutans qualify as traditions (or cultures), we developed a formal model to predict the incidence of these acquired specializations among wild primates and to examine the evolution of their underlying abilities. We assumed that the acquisition of the skill by an individual in a social unit is crucially controlled by three main factors, namely probability of innovation, probability of socially biased learning, and the prevailing social conditions (sociability, or number of potential experts at close proximity). The model reconfirms the restriction of customary tool use in wild primates to the most intelligent radiation, great apes; the greater incidence of tool use in more sociable populations of orangutans and chimpanzees; and tendencies toward tool manufacture among the most sociable monkeys. However, it also indicates that sociable gregariousness is far more likely to produce the maintenance of invented skills in a population than solitary life, where the mother is the only accessible expert. We therefore used the model to explore the evolution of the three key parameters. The most likely evolutionary scenario is that where complex skills contribute to fitness, sociability and/or the capacity for socially biased learning increase, whereas innovative abilities (i.e., intelligence) follow indirectly. We suggest that the evolution of high intelligence will often be a byproduct of selection on abilities for socially biased learning that are needed to acquire important skills, and hence that high intelligence should be most common in sociable rather than solitary organisms. Evidence for increased sociability during hominin evolution is consistent with this new hypothesis. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gap model of one-way cyclic lateral load on vertical files in soft clay

For the analysis and design of pile foundation used for coastal structures the prediction of cyclic response, which is influenced by the nonlinear behavior, gap (pile soil separation) and degradation (reduction in strength) of soil becomes necessary. To study the effect of the above parameters a nonlinear cyclic load analysis program using finite element method is developed, incorporating the proposed gap and degradation model and adopting an incremental-iterative procedure. The pile is idealized using beam elements and the soil by number of elastoplastic sub-element springs at each node. The effect of gap and degradation on the load-deflection behavior. elasto-plastic sub-element and resistance of the soil at ground-line have been clearly depicted in this paper.

A model investigation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions on a millennial timescale

A terrestrial biosphere model with dynamic vegetation capability, Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS2), coupled to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) is used to investigate the multiple climate-forest equilibrium states of the climate system. A 1000-year control simulation and another 1000-year land cover change simulation that consisted of global deforestation for 100 years followed by re-growth of forests for the subsequent 900 years were performed. After several centuries of interactive climate-vegetation dynamics, the land cover change simulation converged to essentially the same climate state as the control simulation. However, the climate system takes about a millennium to reach the control forest state. In the absence of deep ocean feedbacks in our model, the millennial time scale for converging to the original climate state is dictated by long time scales of the vegetation dynamics in the northern high latitudes. Our idealized modeling study suggests that the equilibrium state reached after complete global deforestation followed by re-growth of forests is unlikely to be distinguishable from the control climate. The real world, however, could have multiple climate-forest states since our modeling study is unlikely to have represented all the essential ecological processes (e. g. altered fire regimes, seed sources and seedling establishment dynamics) for the reestablishment of major biomes.

Model synthetic studies toward jiadifenin and majucin type seco-prezizaane natural products via a stereo- and enantioselective approach

A concise stereo- and enantioselective approach to seco-prezizaane sesquiterpenoids, leading to the acquisition of two bicyclic fragments, is delineated. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.