Public transport travel time variability definitions and monitoring

Public Transport Travel Time Variability (PTTV) is essential for understanding the deteriorations in the reliability of travel time, optimizing transit schedules and route choices. This paper establishes the key definitions of PTTV in which firstly include all buses, and secondly include only a single service from a bus route. The paper then analyzes the day-to-day distribution of public transport travel time by using Transit Signal Priority data. A comprehensive approach, using both parametric bootstrapping Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Bayesian Information Creation technique is developed, recommends Lognormal distribution as the best descriptor of bus travel time on urban corridors. The probability density function of Lognormal distribution is finally used for calculating probability indicators of PTTV. The findings of this study are useful for both traffic managers and statisticians for planning and analyzing the transit systems.

Spatially varying ground motion effects on seismic response of adjacent structures considering soil-structure interaction

Spatial variation of seismic ground motions is caused by incoherence effect, wave passage, and local site conditions. This study focuses on the effects of spatial variation of earthquake ground motion on the responses of adjacent reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. The adjacent buildings are modeled considering soil-structure interaction (SSI) so that the buildings can be interacted with each other under uniform and non-uniform ground motions. Three different site classes are used to model the soil layers of SSI system. Based on fast Fourier transformation (FFT), spatially correlated non-uniform ground motions are generated compatible with known power spectrum density function (PSDF) at different locations. Numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the displacement responses and the absolute maximum base shear forces of adjacent structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The results are presented in terms of related parameters affecting the structural response using three different types of soil site classes. The responses of adjacent structures have changed remarkably due to spatial variation of ground motions. The effect can be significant on rock site rather than clay site.

A new approach to spatial data interpolation using higher-order statistics

Interpolation techniques for spatial data have been applied frequently in various fields of geosciences. Although most conventional interpolation methods assume that it is sufficient to use first- and second-order statistics to characterize random fields, researchers have now realized that these methods cannot always provide reliable interpolation results, since geological and environmental phenomena tend to be very complex, presenting non-Gaussian distribution and/or non-linear inter-variable relationship. This paper proposes a new approach to the interpolation of spatial data, which can be applied with great flexibility. Suitable cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics are developed to measure the spatial relationship between the random variable at an unsampled location and those in its neighbourhood. Given the computed cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics, the conditional probability density function (CPDF) is approximated via polynomial expansions, which is then utilized to determine the interpolated value at the unsampled location as an expectation. In addition, the uncertainty associated with the interpolation is quantified by constructing prediction intervals of interpolated values. The proposed method is applied to a mineral deposit dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms kriging methods in uncertainty quantification. The introduction of the cross-variable higher-order spatial statistics noticeably improves the quality of the interpolation since it enriches the information that can be extracted from the observed data, and this benefit is substantial when working with data that are sparse or have non-trivial dependence structures.

One practical algorithm for both stochastic and adversarial bandits

We present an algorithm for multiarmed bandits that achieves almost optimal performance in both stochastic and adversarial regimes without prior knowledge about the nature of the environment. Our algorithm is based on augmentation of the EXP3 algorithm with a new control lever in the form of exploration parameters that are tailored individually for each arm. The algorithm simultaneously applies the “old” control lever, the learning rate, to control the regret in the adversarial regime and the new control lever to detect and exploit gaps between the arm losses. This secures problem-dependent “logarithmic” regret when gaps are present without compromising on the worst-case performance guarantee in the adversarial regime. We show that the algorithm can exploit both the usual expected gaps between the arm losses in the stochastic regime and deterministic gaps between the arm losses in the adversarial regime. The algorithm retains “logarithmic” regret guarantee in the stochastic regime even when some observations are contaminated by an adversary, as long as on average the contamination does not reduce the gap by more than a half. Our results for the stochastic regime are supported by experimental validation.

A directed continuous time random walk model with jump length depending on waiting time

In continuum one-dimensional space, a coupled directed continuous time random walk model is proposed, where the random walker jumps toward one direction and the waiting time between jumps affects the subsequent jump. In the proposed model, the Laplace-Laplace transform of the probability density function P(x,t) of finding the walker at position at time is completely determined by the Laplace transform of the probability density function φ(t) of the waiting time. In terms of the probability density function of the waiting time in the Laplace domain, the limit distribution of the random process and the corresponding evolving equations are derived.

Nonlinear mechanical property of tracheal cartilage: A theoretical and experimental study

Background: Despite being the stiffest airway of the bronchial tree, the trachea undergoes significant deformation due to intrathoracic pressure during breathing. The mechanical properties of the trachea affect the flow in the airway and may contribute to the biological function of the lung. Method: A Fung-type strain energy density function was used to investigate the nonlinear mechanical behavior of tracheal cartilage. A bending test on pig tracheal cartilage was performed and a mathematical model for analyzing the deformation of tracheal cartilage was developed. The constants included in the strain energy density function were determined by fitting the experimental data. Result: The experimental data show that tracheal cartilage is a nonlinear material displaying higher strength in compression than in tension. When the compression forces varied from -0.02 to -0.03 N and from -0.03 to -0.04 N, the deformation ratios were 11.03±2.18% and 7.27±1.59%, respectively. Both were much smaller than the deformation ratios (20.01±4.49%) under tension forces of 0.02 to 0.01 N. The Fung-type strain energy density function can capture this nonlinear behavior very well, whilst the linear stress-strain relation cannot. It underestimates the stability of trachea by exaggerating the displacement in compression. This study may improve our understanding of the nonlinear behavior of tracheal cartilage and it may be useful for the future study on tracheal collapse behavior under physiological and pathological conditions.

Weighted rank regression for clustered data analysis

We consider ranked-based regression models for clustered data analysis. A weighted Wilcoxon rank method is proposed to take account of within-cluster correlations and varying cluster sizes. The asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators is established. A method to estimate covariance of the estimators is also given, which can bypass estimation of the density function. Simulation studies are carried out to compare different estimators for a number of scenarios on the correlation structure, presence/absence of outliers and different correlation values. The proposed methods appear to perform well, in particular, the one incorporating the correlation in the weighting achieves the highest efficiency and robustness against misspecification of correlation structure and outliers. A real example is provided for illustration.

Generalized pencils of rays in statistical wave optics

The recently introduced generalized pencil of Sudarshan which gives an exact ray picture of wave optics is analysed in some situations of interest to wave optics. A relationship between ray dispersion and statistical inhomogeneity of the field is obtained. A paraxial approximation which preserves the rectilinear propagation character of the generalized pencils is presented. Under this approximation the pencils can be computed directly from the field conditions on a plane, without the necessity to compute the cross-spectral density function in the entire space as an intermediate quantity. The paraxial results are illustrated with examples. The pencils are shown to exhibit an interesting scaling behaviour in the far-zone. This scaling leads to a natural generalization of the Fraunhofer range criterion and of the classical van Cittert-Zernike theorem to planar sources of arbitrary state of coherence. The recently derived results of radiometry with partially coherent sources are shown to be simple consequences of this scaling.

Nonstationary Random Critical Seismic Excitations

A method is presented to find nonstationary random seismic excitations with a constraint on mean square value such that the response variance of a given linear system is maximized. It is also possible to incorporate the dominant input frequency into the analysis. The excitation is taken to be the product of a deterministic enveloping function and a zero mean Gaussian stationary random process. The power spectral density function of this process is determined such that the response variance is maximized. Numerical results are presented for a single-degree system and an earth embankment modeled as shear beam.

Survival probability for a diffusive process on a growing domain

We consider the motion of a diffusive population on a growing domain, 0 < x < L(t ), which is motivated by various applications in developmental biology. Individuals in the diffusing population, which could represent molecules or cells in a developmental scenario, undergo two different kinds of motion: (i) undirected movement, characterized by a diffusion coefficient, D, and (ii) directed movement, associated with the underlying domain growth. For a general class of problems with a reflecting boundary at x = 0, and an absorbing boundary at x = L(t ), we provide an exact solution to the partial differential equation describing the evolution of the population density function, C(x,t ). Using this solution, we derive an exact expression for the survival probability, S(t ), and an accurate approximation for the long-time limit, S = limt→∞ S(t ). Unlike traditional analyses on a nongrowing domain, where S ≡ 0, we show that domain growth leads to a very different situation where S can be positive. The theoretical tools developed and validated in this study allow us to distinguish between situations where the diffusive population reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ) from other situations where the diffusive population never reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ). Making this distinction is relevant to certain applications in developmental biology, such as the development of the enteric nervous system (ENS). All theoretical predictions are verified by implementing a discrete stochastic model.

"Mut ei tää oo hei midsommarista!" - ruotsin kielen viestinnällinen suullinen harjoittelu yhteistoiminnallisten skeema- ja elaborointitehtävien avulla

Communicative oral practice in Swedish through collaborative schema-based and elaboration tasks The general aim of this study was to learn how to better understand foreign language communicative oral practice and to develop it as part of communicative language teaching. The language-specific aim was to study how Swedish was being practised communicatively and orally in a classroom context as part of the didactic teaching-studying-learning process, and how the students' communicative oral practice in Swedish was carried out through collaborative schema-based and elaboration tasks. The scientific problem of this study focused on the essence of foreign language communicative oral proficiency. The research questions were concerned with 1) the students' involvement in carrying out the given oral tasks; 2) the features of communication and interaction strategies; 3) thematic vocabulary, and 4) the students' experiences and conceptions of the communicative oral tasks used. The study consisted of two groups of students from a Helsinki-area school (a group of upper secondary school students, Swedish Level A, Courses 2 and 3, n=9; and a group of basic education students, Swedish Level B, Course 2, n=13). The study was carried out as a pedagogically oriented case study which included certain features of ethnographic research and where the students' teacher acted as a researcher of her own work. The communicative oral practice contained five different tasks. The research data were gathered through systematic observation, audio recordings and by a questionnaire. The data were analysed through ethnographic content analysis methods. The main research finding was that a good deal of social interaction, collaboration and communication took place between the students when involved in communicative oral practice in Swedish. The students took almost optimal advantage of the allocated training time. They mostly used Swedish when participating in interactional communication. Finnish was mostly used by the students when they were deciding how to carry out a given task, aiming at intersubjectivity or negotiating meaning. The students were relaxed when practising Swedish. They also asked for and gave linguistic help in the spirit of collaborative learning principles. This resulted in interaction between students that highlighted certain features of negotiation of meaning, scaffolding and collaborative dialogue. Asking for and giving help in language issues concentrated mainly on vocabulary, and only in a few cases on grammar or pronunciation. The students also needed the teacher as a mentor. As well, the students had an enjoyable time when practising, which was most often related to carrying out the oral tasks. The thematic vocabulary used by the students corresponded well to the thematic lexis that served as a basis for the practice. At its most efficient, this lexis was most evident when the basic education students were carrying out schema-based tasks. The students' questionnaire answers agreed with the research findings gained through systematic observation and the analysis of audio recordings. The communicative tasks planned by the teacher and implemented by the students were very much in line. The language-didactic theory as presented in this study and the research findings can be widely utilised in pre-service and in-service teacher education, as well as, more generally, when developing communicative language teaching. Key words: communicative oral practice; the Swedish language; foreign language; didactic teaching-studying-learning process; communicative language teaching; collaborative task; schema-based task; elaboration task.

Estimation of fuzzy memberships from histograms

Based on the conclusions drawn in the bijective transformation between possibility and probability, a method is proposed to estimate the fuzzy membership function for pattern recognition purposes. A rational function approximation to the probability density function is obtained from the histogram of a finite (and sometimes very small) number of samples. This function is normalized such that the highest ordinate is one. The parameters representing the rational function are used for classifying the pattern samples based on a max-min decision rule. The method is illustrated with examples.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: Application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Sinteractivity, proton conductivity and chemical stability of BaZr 0.7In0.3O3-δ for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs)

In3+ was used as dopant for BaZrO3 proton conductor and 30 at%-doped BaZrO3 samples (BaZr0.7In 0.3O3-δ, BZI) were prepared as electrolyte materials for proton-conducting solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). The BZI material showed a much improved sinteractivity compared with the conventional Y-doped BaZrO 3. The BZI pellets reached almost full density after sintering at 1600 °C for 10 h, whereas the Y-doped BaZrO3 samples still remained porous under the same sintering conditions. The conductivity measurements indicated that BZI pellets showed smaller bulk but improved grain boundary proton conductivity, when compared with Y-doped BaZrO3 samples. A total proton conductivity of 1.7 × 10-3 S cm -1 was obtained for the BZI sample at 700 °C in wet 10% H 2 atmosphere. The BZI electrolyte material also showed adequate chemical stability against CO2 and H2O, which is promising for application in fuel cells.