Harry and Lucy : complete in three volumes ... /

Cf. Osborne Coll., p. 247-248; 879.

Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Molecular discrimination of taeniid cestodes :

DNA approaches are now being used routinely for accurate identification of Echinococcus and Taenia species, subspecies and strains, and in molecular epidemiological surveys of echinococcosis/taeniasis in different geographical settings and host assemblages. The publication of the complete sequences of the mitochondrial (int) genomes of E. granulosus, E. multilocularis, T solium and Asian Taenia, and the availability of mtDNA sequences for a number of other taeniid genotypes, has provided additional genetic information that can be used for more in depth phylogenetic and taxonomic studies of these parasites. This very rich sequence information has provided a solid molecular basis, along with a range of different biological, epidemiological, biochemical and other molecular-genetic criteria, for revising the taxonomy of the genus Echinococcus and for estimating the evolutionary time of divergence of the various taxa. Furthermore, the accumulating genetic data has allowed the development of PCR-based tests for unambiguous identification of Echinococcus eggs in the faeces of definitive hosts and in the environment. Molecular phylogenies derived from mtDNA sequence comparisons of geographically distributed samples of T solium provide molecular evidence for two genotypes, one being restricted to Asia, with the other occurring in Africa and America. Whether the two genetic forms of T solium differ in important phenotypic characteristics remains to be determined. As well, minor DNA sequence differences have been reported between isolates of T saginata and Asian Taenia. There has been considerable discussion over a number of years regarding the taxonomic position of Asian Taenia and whether it should be regarded as a genotype, strain, subspecies or sister species of T saginata. The available molecular genetic data do not support independent species status for Asian Taenia and T saginata. What is in agreement is that both taxa are closely related to each other but distantly related to T solium. This is important in public health terms as it predicts that cysticercosis in humans attributable to Asian Taenia does not occur, because cysticercosis is unknown in T saginata. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost effectiveness of production control systems

This thesis deals with the problems associated with the planning and control of production, with particular reference to a small aluminium die casting company. The main problem areas were identified as: (a) A need to be able to forecast the customers demands upon the company's facilities. (b) A need to produce a manufacturing programme in which the output of the foundry (or die casting section) was balanced with the available capacity in the machine shop. (c) The need to ensure that the resultant system enabled the company's operating budget to have a reasonable chance of being achieved. At the commencement of the research work the major customers were members of the automobile industry and had their own system of forecasting, from which they issued manufacturing schedules to their component suppliers, The errors in the forecast were analysed and the distributions noted. Using these distributions the customer's forecast was capable of being modified to enable his final demand to be met with a known degree of confidence. Before a manufacturing programme could be developed the actual manufacturing system had to be reviewed and it was found that as with many small companies there was a remarkable lack of formal control and written data. Relevant data with regards to the component and the manufacturing process had therefore to be collected and analysed. The foundry process was fixed but the secondary machining operations were analysed by a technique similar to Component Flow Analysis and as a result the machines were arranged in a series of flow lines. A system of manual production control was proposed and for comparison, a local computer bureau was approached and a system proposed incorporating the production of additional management information. These systems are compared and the relative merits discussed and a proposal made for implementation.

Experiential hospitality environments: The roles of the interior architectural features in affording meanings of place

People’s authentic sense of place is being overshadowed by less authentic experiences referred to as placelessness. Consequently, a demand for experiential interior environments has surfaced. Experiential environmental and place attachment theories suggested that the relationships between self, others, and the environment are what encourage users in creating meaningful authentic experiences. This qualitative study explored the roles of the experiential interior architectural features in affording users of hospitality environments higher-level needs, such as meanings of place. For the case study, ten participants stayed at a hotel for two nights. Participants were given a guided list of ten facets of an experience, which was insidiously structured by both experiential environmental and place attachment theories. The participants used photographs to document each of the facets on the guided list. The photos were then used during the photo elicitation interviews, which evoked additional qualitative information. Participants identified specific interior architectural features and described them using the themes associated to place attachment theories. The findings revealed that the interior architectural features might enrich the meanings a person associates with a given place. Possibly affording users higher-level needs. As a result, if an experiential interior environment allows users to foster relationships between self, others, and the physical environment, they may experience more authentic experiences and give more meanings to a place.

Biliteracy effects on phonological awareness, oral language proficiency and reading skills in Taiwanese Mandarin-English bilingual children

The present study examined the effect of learning to read a heritage language on Taiwanese Mandarin-English bilingual children’s Chinese and English phonological awareness, Chinese and English oral language proficiency, and English reading skills. Participants were 40 Taiwanese Mandarin-English bilingual children and 20 English monolingual children in the U.S. Based on their performance on a Chinese character reading test, the bilingual participants were divided into two groups: the Chinese Beginning Reader and Chinese Nonreader groups. A single child categorized as a Chinese Advanced Reader also participated. Children received phonological awareness tasks, produced oral narrative samples from a wordless picture book, and took standardized English reading subtests. The bilingual participants received measures in both English and Chinese, whereas English monolingual children received only English measures. Additional demographic information was collected from a language background survey filled out by parents. Results of two MANOVAs indicated that the Chinese Beginning Reader group outperformed the Chinese Nonreader and English Monolingual groups on some phonological awareness measures and the English nonword reading test. In an oral narrative production task in English, the English Monolingual group produced a greater total number of words (TNW) and more different words (NDW) than the Chinese Nonreader group. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine whether bilingual children’s Chinese character reading ability would still account for a unique amount of variance in certain outcome variables, independent of nonverbal IQ and other potential demographic or performance variables and to clarify the direction of causality for bilingual children’s performance in the three domains. These results suggested that learning to read in a heritage language directly or indirectly enhances bilingual children’s ability in phonological awareness and certain English reading skills. It also appears that greater oral language proficiency in Chinese promotes early reading in the heritage language. Advanced heritage reading may produce even larger gains. Practical implications of learning a heritage language in the U.S. are discussed.

Movement Sonification: Effects on Motor Learning beyond Rhythmic Adjustments

Motor learning is based on motor perception and emergent perceptual-motor representations. A lot of behavioral research is related to single perceptual modalities but during last two decades the contribution of multimodal perception on motor behavior was discovered more and more. A growing number of studies indicates an enhanced impact of multimodal stimuli on motor perception, motor control and motor learning in terms of better precision and higher reliability of the related actions. Behavioral research is supported by neurophysiological data, revealing that multisensory integration supports motor control and learning. But the overwhelming part of both research lines is dedicated to basic research. Besides research in the domains of music, dance and motor rehabilitation, there is almost no evidence for enhanced effectiveness of multisensory information on learning of gross motor skills. To reduce this gap, movement sonification is used here in applied research on motor learning in sports. Based on the current knowledge on the multimodal organization of the perceptual system, we generate additional real-time movement information being suitable for integration with perceptual feedback streams of visual and proprioceptive modality. With ongoing training, synchronously processed auditory information should be initially integrated into the emerging internal models, enhancing the efficacy of motor learning. This is achieved by a direct mapping of kinematic and dynamic motion parameters to electronic sounds, resulting in continuous auditory and convergent audiovisual or audio-proprioceptive stimulus arrays. In sharp contrast to other approaches using acoustic information as error-feedback in motor learning settings, we try to generate additional movement information suitable for acceleration and enhancement of adequate sensorimotor representations and processible below the level of consciousness. In the experimental setting, participants were asked to learn a closed motor skill (technique acquisition of indoor rowing). One group was treated with visual information and two groups with audiovisual information (sonification vs. natural sounds). For all three groups learning became evident and remained stable. Participants treated with additional movement sonification showed better performance compared to both other groups. Results indicate that movement sonification enhances motor learning of a complex gross motor skill-even exceeding usually expected acoustic rhythmic effects on motor learning.

Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health

The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.

Optimal choice of electoral preference data

Electoral researchers are so much accustomed to analyzing the choice of the single most preferred party as the left-hand side variable of their models of electoral behavior that they often ignore revealed preference data. Drawing on random utility theory, their models predict electoral behavior at the extensive margin of choice. Since the seminal work of Luce and others on individual choice behavior, however, many social science disciplines (consumer research, labor market research, travel demand, etc.) have extended their inventory of observed preference data with, for instance, multiple paired comparisons, complete or incomplete rankings, and multiple ratings. Eliciting (voter) preferences using these procedures and applying appropriate choice models is known to considerably increase the efficiency of estimates of causal factors in models of (electoral) behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency gain when adding additional preference information to first preferences, up to full ranking data. We do so for multi-party systems of different sizes. We use simulation studies as well as empirical data from the 1972 German election study. Comparing the practical considerations for using ranking and single preference data results in suggestions for choice of measurement instruments in different multi-candidate and multi-party settings.

Finding additional semantic entity information for search engines

Entity-oriented search has become an essential component of modern search engines. It focuses on retrieving a list of entities or information about the specific entities instead of documents. In this paper, we study the problem of finding entity related information, referred to as attribute-value pairs, that play a significant role in searching target entities. We propose a novel decomposition framework combining reduced relations and the discriminative model, Conditional Random Field (CRF), for automatically finding entity-related attribute-value pairs from free text documents. This decomposition framework allows us to locate potential text fragments and identify the hidden semantics, in the form of attribute-value pairs for user queries. Empirical analysis shows that the decomposition framework outperforms pattern-based approaches due to its capability of effective integration of syntactic and semantic features.

Additional information on the length-weight relationship of skipjack tuna from the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Results of a study of the length-weight relationships of yellowfin (Neothunnus macropterus) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) tuna from several fishing areas of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean have been published by Chatwin (1959). In that report, a very low exponential value of 2.6261 was obtained for skipjack from Area 14 (off northern Chile, see Chatwin, Figure 1). It was pointed out, however, that this estimate was based on two samples of fish with a very narrow range of total lengths, not representative of the range in the catch, and that it would be desirable to obtain a further estimate based on a larger range of total lengths. In addition, there proved to be significantly large differences among exponents for the areas sampled, precluding use of a single regression equation for all areas. Two important fishing areas remained unsampled (Areas 10 and 13, see Chatwin, Figure 1), and it appeared desirable to collect length-weight measurement data from them, so that estimating equations would be available for all areas. Subsequent to publication of Chatwin's study, samples of skipjack length-weight measurements were obtained from the desired areas. Estimates derived from these data, and their effects on the previous analysis are presented herein. SPANISH:Los resultados de un estudio sobre las relaciones entre la longitud y el peso del atún aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus) y del barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis) de las diferentes áreas de pesca en el Pacífico Oriental Tropical ya han sido publicados por Chatwin (1959). En ese informe se obtuvo un valor exponencial muy bajo de 2.626 para el barrilete del Area 14 (frente a la costa norte de Chile, ver Chatwin, Figura 1). Se hizo hincapié, sin embargo, en que esta estimación se basaba en dos muestras de peces con una amplitud muy estrecha de longitudes totales, no representativa de la amplitud en la pesca, y que sería deseable obtener una estimación adicional basada en una amplitud mayor de longitudes totales. Además, se comprobó que habian diferencias significativamente grandes entre los exponentes de las áreas muestreadas lo que impedía el usa de una sola ecuación de regresión para todas las áreas. Se quedaron sin muestrear dos importantes áreas de pesca (Areas 10 y 13, ver Chatwin, Figura 1) y pareció deseable recolectar datos de medidas de longitud y peso de estas áreas, de tal manera que hubiesen disponibles ecuaciones estimadoras para todas las áreas. Después de la publicación del estudio de Chatwin, so obtuvieron muestras de medidas de longitud y peso de barriletes de las áreas deseadas. Las estimaciones derivadas de estos datos y sus efectos sabre el análisis previo se dan en el presente informe.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Juvenile Justice System Planning Data Iowa’s Juvenile Justice Advisory Council Three Year Comprehensive Plan with Additional Juvenile Justice System Information, November 2015

This report provides key juvenile justice system planning data, most of which are taken from Iowa’s 2015 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Three Year Plan. The data and related descriptions serve as an overview of decision making for major juvenile justice system processing points, and also assist state and local officials with policy and practice. Included in the report are school discipline data and data related to juvenile in the adult criminal justice system.