Extended supervision of sexual offenders in Australia and New Zealand : differences in implementation across jurisdictions

Australia and New Zealand have joined the movement of many Western societies in recent years to address a perceived gap in public safety by passing legislation allowing for extended supervision of sex offenders in the community after their release from prison. The Australian State of Victoria passed a law similar to that of New Zealand, and both laws have now been in effect for a similar period of time. Yet despite having comparable laws and approximately comparable base populations, there have been 145 extended supervision orders imposed in New Zealand and 20 such orders in Victoria. This article examines the differences in implementation and the underlying procedures used in the two jurisdictions to understand these very different outcomes. Implications for professional practice, ethics, public safety, and policy development are discussed.

Risk assessment of sexual offenders for extended supervision orders in New Zealand : basic principles and current practice

A growing number of jurisdictions in North America, the United Kingdom, and Australasia have enacted legislation allowing for special sentencing, civil commitment, and community supervision options for high risk sexual offenders. In New Zealand, one example of this concern for public protection is the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, which provides for additional supervision of sexual offenders with child victims for up to 10 years after their release from prison. Recent experience with expert evidence and judicial decision making in such cases suggests that those involved in the process might benefit from a more thorough understanding of the current state of sexual offender risk assessment that can be provided by mental health professionals.

Short term reoffending by child victim sex offenders in New Zealand : a comparison of those with and without extended supervision

Sexual offenders with child victims in New Zealand who are considered at high risk for reoffending are subject to an Extended Supervision Order. This allows for a period of supervision of up to ten years following release to the community. The present study examined 89 offenders given Extended Supervision Orders over the 33 month period since the legislation was enacted. All types of reoffending resulting in criminal convictions by this group were included. A matched sample of sexual offenders with child victims released prior to this legislation and a sample of offenders judged to be lower risk were compared to those under extended supervision. Offenders under extended supervision reoffended faster and at a higher rate for both sexual and general offences than those deemed lower risk, but at a lower rate than pre-extended supervision high risk offenders. The relationship between specialist treatment programme attendance and completion, actuarial risk level, and recidivism in the extended supervision sample were also investigated. These variables were found not to be significant predictors of sexual recidivism.

Case formulation with sex offenders : an illustration of individualized risk assessment

There has been a rapid expansion of the professional literature in risk assessment with sexual offenders over the past 20 years.  However, recent professional experience suggests that risk assessment reports often fail to be as relevant or useful as they might be for judicial decision-makers.  Research with large samples of offenders has refined our understanding of identifiable subgroups with different rates of sexual reoffending, but the management of risk requires that we deal effectively with individual offenders.  One area that can be improved is the development of case formulations of risk.  Clinicians must move beyond the mechanical use of actuarial static and dynamic risk factors to a broader integration of relevant information about the individual if they are to assist in managing risk in a way that serves the needs of the offender while protecting public safety.

Specific risk assessment based on victim type in children sexual offenders

Actuarial instruments for assessing sex offender recidivism have limited utility for specific risk assessment questions, such as the risk posed to particular types of victim. In order to obtain variables that discriminate between offenders with different classes of victim, data were coded from 324 files of child sexual offenders from a community-based sexual offender treatment program. Offenders with single or multiple victims were compared, as were offenders who did or did not offend against victims of both genders, and offenders with only intra-familial or extra-familial victims versus offenders with victims in both relationship categories. Variables that discriminated single-victim and multiple-victim offenders were similar to those identified in actuarial risk assessment scales, with the exception of history of childhood sexual abuse. With the exception of physical abuse history, the same variables discriminated specific offender groups according to victim gender and victim relationship, although in different combinations. There was limited support for the notion of specific risk variables.

A conditional probability approach to risk assessment for child sexual offenders with different classes of victim

Specific scales were developed for discriminating child sexual offenders with different classes of victim. The project demonstrates a method of individualising scores on actuarial risk assessment measured in a way that makes them more meaningful for those involved in decision-making about individual child sexual offenders. At present, the only quantifiable approach to specific decision-making relies on a general prediction of future behaviour, based on group data. The Bayesian approach is one method that can be used to assist decision-makers to use this information in ways that lead to the more appropriate management of risk. Ultimately, the better management of known child sexual offenders will lead to fewer offences and a reduction in the number of children who lives are profoundly affected by sexual victimisation.

Assessing the efficacy and standardization potential of five competing venture capital investment evaluation approaches

The research objective behind this article was to perform a critical evaluation and comparison of five representative business plan evaluation aids (BPEAs) to facilitate constructive discussion of the proposition that greater standardization of venture capital decision-making might be both desirable and possible. The five BPEAs were systematically compared using a structured, taxonomic process. The evidence of this investigation suggests a clear superiority of BPEAs that are based on the researched attributes of successful ventures and use actuarial modeling. Discussion centered on the importance of using BPEAs in a quest for greater consistency during venture capital investment decision-making.

Child-related information processing in step-parents : investigating the Cinderella effect

This thesis examined the over-representation of step-parents as perpetrators of child physical abuse. Results suggested a number of differences between step- and biological parents in attachment, information-processing, and disciplinary practices. Results were used to formulate a model of step-parental abuse, which has potential implications for the prevention of child physical abuse. The professional portfolio presents four cases from forensic practice in which predictions about further criminal behaviour are made. These cases are then used to discuss several practical questions that may be posed by psychologists who are considering which approach (clinical or actuarial) to use.

A critical evaluation of the standardisation potential of business plan evaluation aids (BPEA) used in venture capital investment decision-making

The research objective was to perform a critical evaluation and comparison of four, representative Business Plan Evaluation Aids (BPEA) to facilitate constructive discussion of the proposition that greater standardisation of venture capital decision-making might be both desirable and possible.

The four BPEA were systematically compared using a structured, taxonomic process employing seven key criteria. The evidence of this investigation suggests a clear superiority for BPEAs, which are based on the known attributes of successful ventures and use actuarial modelling. Discussion centred on the importance of using BPEAs in a quest for greater consistency of venture capital investment decision-making.

Intimate partner violence in prisoners: toward effective assessment and intervention

This paper reviews the significant challenges that are involved in the development of services for perpetrators of intimate partner violence who are in prison. It is suggested that difficulties in accurately identifying intimate partner violence, reliably assessing risk of re-offense, and in identifying offending behavior programs that meet the specific needs of prisoners have limited the development of services in this area. As a result it is argued that unique and complex victim related issues that arise during incarceration and post-release are not adequately recognized in current correctional assessment and case management systems. Four avenues for future research and service development in this area are identified, with a view to developing the role that correctional services have to play in preventing intimate partner violence.

Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors

Background : Violence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors.

Aims : To investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia.

Method : A total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.

Results : Over a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n = 1535) and 5.7% of women (n = 281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder.

Conclusions : Clinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance.

Fundamentação técnica e atuarial dos seguros de vida : um estudo comparativo entre o seguro de vida individual e o seguro de vida em grupo no Brasil

A indústria de seguros é uma atividade econômica relativamente jovem, possuindo raízes na revolução industrial. O desenvolvimento dessa indústria ocorreu de forma bastante intensa durante o século passado, quando a atividade passou a ser inserida na área de gestão de riscos. As Companhias de Seguros que trabalham nesse ambiente de negócio fundamentam todo o processo de precificação dos seus produtos em rígidas bases técnicas e atuariais. O presente trabalho dedica-se ao estudo dessas questões, abordando especificamente os seguros de vida, com ênfase à cobertura de morte. A pesquisa tem por objetivo comparar duas modalidades distintas de seguros que são ofertadas ao mercado: o seguro de vida individual e o seguro de vida em grupo. Embora ofereçam aos consumidores coberturas bastante similares, ambas as modalidades devem obedecer a requisitos e princípios técnicos diferenciados por parte das instituições que fazem a sua gestão.

A eficácia das ações de educação previdenciária como ferramenta para melhorar o entendimento do produto previdência privada

A presente Dissertação procura demonstrar a efetividade das ações de Educação Previdenciária como fator positivo para as empresas de Previdência Privada.

As reformas da previdência no Brasil e o equilíbrio e atuarial dos Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS), dos entes federados estaduais da Região Sudeste

O desequilíbrio das contas públicas, notadamente em relação à previdência do servidor público no Brasil, tem levado a buscas constantes de soluções para garantir o custeio do modelo em desenvolvimento. As mudanças estabelecidas nas Reformas da Previdência têm contribuído de forma significativa para diminuir o passivo previdenciário acumulado ao longo dos anos, principalmente nos estados, municípios das capitais e dos demais constituídos antes da promulgação da Carta Magna de 1988. Os estados escolhidos para análise demonstraram desacertos, todavia apresentam resultados promissores para o equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial dos RPPS. A utilização de modelos parecidos aos implementados na América do Sul, para o setor público e privado, apresentam-se inadequados no Brasil para os servidores públicos. Precisamos continuar aprimorando os nossos conhecimentos, buscando novas alternativas que garantam a sustentabilidade e viabilidade do sistema, sem comprometer a capacidade de investimentos dos entes federados

Anticoagulação oral em portadores de próteses valvares cardíacas mecânicas: experiência de dez anos

INTRODUÇÃO: Dados da literatura sugerem que as taxas de tromboembolismo e sangramento em pacientes com próteses valvares cardíacas mecânicas podem ser muito reduzidas se a terapia anticoagulante for otimizada. OBJETIVOS: Avaliar a ocorrência de complicações em portadores de próteses valvares cardíacas mecânicas submetidos à terapêutica anticoagulante, otimizada por meio de ambulatório especializado. MÉTODOS: Estudou-se a ocorrência de complicações ao longo de 10 anos em 261 pacientes com próteses valvares cardíacas mecânicas, anticoagulados e acompanhados em ambulatório especializado. Esses pacientes foram divididos em dois grupos conforme porcentual de consultas com tempo de protrombina (RNI) dentro do intervalo desejado: G1-0% a 50,00% e G2-50,01% a 100% das consultas. Foram avaliadas as ocorrências de complicações tromboembólicas e hemorrágicas na sua totalidade, ou subdivididas em maiores e menores, de acordo com a gravidade. Os resultados estão apresentados sob forma de estudo atuarial e de frequência linearizada de ocorrência de eventos. RESULTADOS: O estudo atuarial mostrou que, ao longo do tempo, no grupo G2 (com 50,01% a 100% das consultas com a RNI no intervalo desejado) maior número de pacientes esteve livre da ocorrência de qualquer tipo de evento, de eventos hemorrágicos menores ou da elevação exacerbada da RNI. As frequências linearizadas de ocorrência, em todos os tipos eventos, também foram menores nos pacientes do grupo G2. CONCLUSÕES: O tempo de permanência dentro do intervalo de anticoagulação desejado está diretamente relacionado com a ocorrência de complicações. Entretanto, mesmo com acompanhamento otimizado por meio de ambulatório especializado, apenas cerca de um terço dos pacientes apresentaram nível de anticoagulação adequado em mais da metade das consultas.