Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alternative Analytical Expressions for the General van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine Hydraulic Conductivity Models

The van Genuchten expressions for the unsaturated soil hydraulic properties, first published in 1980, are used frequently in various vadose zone flow and transport applications assuming a specific relationship between the m and n soil hydraulic parameters. By comparison, probably because of the complexity of the hydraulic conductivity equations, the more general solutions with independent m and n values are rarely used. We expressed the general van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine hydraulic conductivity equations in terms of hypergeometric functions, which can be approximated by infinite series that converge rapidly for relatively large values of the van Genuchten-Mualem parameter n but only very slowly when n is close to one. Alternative equations were derived that provide very close approximations of the analytical results. The newly proposed equations allow the use of independent values of the parameters m and n in the soil water retention model of van Genuchten for subsequent prediction of the van Genuchten-Mualem and van Genuchten-Burdine hydraulic conductivity models, thus providing more flexibility in fitting experimental pressure-head-dependent water content, theta(h), and hydraulic conductivity, K(h), or K(theta) data.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Does using stepwise variable selection to build sequential path analysis models make sense?

Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of refrigeration, freezing and replacement of milk fat by inulin and whey protein concentrate on texture profile and sensory acceptance of synbiotic guava mousses

The effects of refrigeration, freezing and substitution of milk fat by inulin and whey protein concentrate (WPC) on the texture and sensory features of synbiotic guava mousses supplemented with the probiotic, Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5, and the prebiotic fibre oligofructose, were studied. The frozen storage (-18 +/- 1 degrees C), followed by thawing at 4 degrees C before the analyses, and the complete replacement of the milk fat by inulin plus WPC, led to significant differences in the instrumental texture parameters of mousses (P < 0.05). Nonetheless, these changes did not affect the sensory acceptability of the products studied. The frozen storage may be employed to extend the shelf-life of synbiotic guava mousses. Additionally, to obtain a texture profile similar to the traditional product, the simultaneous addition of inulin and WPC is recommended only for the partial replacement of milk fat in refrigerated and frozen mousses, and the total proportion of both ingredients together should not exceed 2.6%. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF RED CURRANTS (RIBES RUBRUM L.), BLACK CURRANTS (RIBES NIGRUM L.), RED AND GREEN GOOSEBERRIES (RIBES UVA-CRISPA) FOR POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT OF TYPE 2 DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION USING IN VITRO MODELS

Red currants (Ribes rubrum L.), black currants (Ribes nigrum L.), red and green gooseberries (Ribes uva-crispa) were evaluated for the total phenolics, antioxidant capacity based on 2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging assay and functionality such as in vitro inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potential management of hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 3.2 (green gooseberries) to 13.5 (black currants) mg/g fruit fresh weight. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds were quercetin derivatives (black currants and green gooseberries) and chlorogenic acid (red currants and red gooseberries). Red currants had the highest alpha-glucosidase, alpha-amylase and ACE inhibitory activities. Therefore red currants could be good dietary sources with potential antidiabetes and antihypertension functionality to compliment overall dietary management of early stages of type 2 diabetes.

Potential of Ginkgo biloba L. leaves in the management of hyperglycemia and hypertension using in vitro models

Leaves from four different Ginkgo biloba L. trees (1 and 2 - females; 3 and 4 - males), grown at the same conditions, were collected during a period of 5 months (from June to October, 2007). Water and 12% ethanol extracts were analyzed for total phenolics content, antioxidant activity, phenolic profile, and the potential in vitro inhibitory effects on alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme (ACE) enzymes related to the management of diabetes and hypertension. The results indicated a significant difference among the trees in all functional benefits evaluated in the leaf extracts and also found important seasonal variation related to the same functional parameters. In general, the aqueous extracts had higher total phenolic content than the ethanolic extracts. Also, no correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. In relation to the ACE inhibition, only ethanolic extracts had inhibitory activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumer`s evaluation of the effects of gamma irradiation and natural antioxidants on general acceptance of frozen beef burger

The effect of addition of rosemary and oregano extracts on the sensory quality of irradiated beef burger was investigated. Batches of beef burgers were prepared with 400 ppm of rosemary or oregano extract and a group prepared with 200 ppm of synthetic butyl-hydroxytoluene (BHT)/butyl-hydroxy-anisol (BHA) was used as a control. Half of each formulation was irradiated at the maximum dose allowed for frozen meat (7 kGy). Samples were kept under frozen conditions (-20 degrees C) during the whole storage period, including during irradiation. Two analyses were performed after 20 and 90 days to verify the influence of the addition of the different types of antioxidants and the effect of irradiation and storage time on the acceptance of the product. Thirty-three and thirty-four untrained panelists were invited to participate in the first and second test, respectively. A structured hedonic scale ranging from 1 to 9 points was used in both analyses. BHT/BHA formulation obtained the highest score (6.73) and regarding the natural antioxidants, oregano received better acceptance (6.36). Irradiated samples formulated with oregano received a lower score, 6.03 in the first test and 5.06 in the second one, compared to the non-irradiated sample (6.36 and 5.79). In the second test (90 days), the sample formulated with BHT/BHA and which was irradiated received a higher score (6.59) when compared to the non-irradiated one (5.85). In both tests, the irradiated samples formulated with rosemary extract obtained a better score compared to the non-irradiated one, the scores being 5.00-3.82 and 5.00-3.76 in the first and second test, respectively. Our results allowed us to conclude that the natural antioxidants, rosemary and oregano extracts, present a good alternative for replacing synthetic additives in food industries, and that the irradiation process, in some cases, may help to enhance the sensory quality of food. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functionality of bioactive compounds in Brazilian strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa Duch.) cultivars: Evaluation of hyperglycemia and hypertension potential using in vitro models

Fruits of seven fully ripened strawberry cultivars grown in Brazil (Dover, Camp Dover, Camarosa, Sweet Charlie, Toyonoka, Oso Grande, and Piedade) were evaluated for total phenolics, antioxidant activity based on DPPH radical scavenging assay, and functionality such as inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potentially managing hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 966 to 1571 mu g of gallic acid/g of fruit fresh weight for Toyonoka and Dover, respectively. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds in aqueous extracts of strawberries were ellagic acid, quercetin, and chlorogenic acid. Strawberries had high alpha-glucosidase inhibitory activity. However, alpha-amylase inhibitory activity was very low in all cultivars. This suggested that strawberries could be considered as a potential dietary source with anti-hyperglycemic potential. The evaluated cultivars had no significant ACE inhibitory activity, reflecting low anti-hypertensive potential.

LACTOBACILLUS ACIDOPHILUS AND BIFIDOBACTERIUM SP IN CO-CULTURE IMPROVE SENSORY ACCEPTANCE OF POTENTIALLY PROBIOTIC PETIT-SUISSE CHEESE

Sensory acceptance of four trials of probiotic petit-suisse cheese was investigated. Cheeses were prepared using Streptococcus thermophilus TA 040 as starter not supplemented with any probiotic culture (T1-control), Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 (T2), Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis BL04 (T3) and L. acidophilus + B. animalis subsp. lactis (T4). Sensory acceptance tests were performed after 7 and 14 days of storage at 4 +/- 1 degrees C, using a 9-point hedonic scale to evaluate flavour, texture and overall acceptability. The population of La-5 and BL04 remained at 7.0 log CFU g(-1) and at 8.0 log CFU g(-1), respectively, during storage for up to 28 days. After 7 and 14 days of storage, cheese T4 presented the highest sensory acceptance for all attributes evaluated and differed significantly from the other cheeses (P<0.05). After 14 days of storage, cheese T3 presented the lowest acceptance and differed significantly from the other cheeses (P<0.05). The supplementation of petit-suisse cheese T4 with both La-5 and BL04 in co-culture with a starter culture resulted in a product with high probiotic populations during storage and excellent sensory acceptance. The results also showed that, when added separately, La-5 and BL04 did not affect the sensory acceptability of petit-suisse cheese.

Nestmate recognition in a stingless bee: does the similarity of chemical cues determine guard acceptance?

The ability to discriminate nestmates from non-nestmates is critical to the maintenance of the integrity of social insect colonies. Guard workers compare the chemical cues of an incoming individual with their internal template to determine whether the entrant belongs to their colony. In contrast to honeybees, Apis mellifera, stingless bees have singly mated queens and, therefore, are expected to have a higher chemical homogeneity in their colonies. We tested whether aggressive behaviour of Frieseomelitta varia guards towards nestmate and non-nestmate foragers reflects chemical similarities and dissimilarities, respectively, of cuticular hydrocarbon profiles. We also introduced individuals of Lestrimelitta limao, an obligatory robber species, to test the ability of guards to react effectively to intruders from other taxa. We verified that foraging nestmates were almost invariably accepted, while heterospecific and conspecific non-nestmates were rejected at relatively high rates. However, non-nestmate individuals with higher chemical profile similarity were likely to be accepted by guards. We conclude that guards compare the chemical cuticular blend of incoming individuals and make acceptance decisions according to the similarity of the compounds between the colonies. (c) 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory properties of 7-hydroxycoumarin in experimental animal models: potential therapeutic for the control of inflammatory chronic pain

Objectives In the present study we investigated the anti nociceptive, anti-inflammatory and antipyretic effects of 7-hydroxycoumarin (7-HC) in animal models. Methods The effects of oral 7-HC were tested against acetic acid-induced writhing, formalin test, tail flick test, complete Freund`s adjuvant (CFA)-induced hypemociception, carrageenan-induced paw oedema, lipopolysaccharide-induced fever and the rota rod test. Key findings 7-HC (3-60 mg/kg) produced a dose-related antinociception against acetic acid-induced writhing in mice and in the formalin test. In contrast, treatment with 7-HC did not prevent thermal nociception in the tail flick test. A single treatment with 7-HC, 60 mg/kg, produced a long-lasting antinociceptive effect against CFA-induced hypernociception, a chronic inflammatory pain stimulus. Notably, at 60 mg/kg per day over 4 days the administration of 7-HC produced a continuous antinociceptive effect against CFA-induced hypernociception. 7-HC (30-120 mg/kg) produced anti-inflammatory and antipyretic effects against carrageenan-induced inflammation and lipopolysaccharide-induced fever, respectively. Moreover, 7-HC was found to be safe with respect to ulcer induction. In the rota rod test, 7-HC-treated mice did not show any motor performance alterations. Conclusions The prolonged antinociceptive and anti-inflammatory effects of 7-HC, in association with its low ulcerogenic activity, indicate that this molecule might be a good candidate for development of new drugs for the control of chronic inflammatory pain and fever.