870 resultados para ARMA o ARIMA methodology


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Over the last few years, there has been a growing concern about the presence of pharmaceuticals in the environment. The main objective of this study was to develop and validate an SPE method using surface response methodology for the determination of ibuprofen in different types of water samples. The influence of sample pH and sample volume on the ibuprofen recovery was studied. The effect of each studied independent variable is pronounced on the dependent variable (ibuprofen recovery). Good selectivity, extraction efficiency, and precision were achieved using 600 mL of sample volume with the pH adjusted to 2.2. LC with fluorescence detection was employed. The optimized method was applied to 20 water samples from the North and South of Portugal.

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The harmony between the stump and the prosthesis is critical to allow it to fulfill its function enabling an efficient gait. A well fitted socket, with an efficient and comfortable suspension, allows the amputee to continue their daily living activities, maintaining the stump functional, making this correlation between socket and suspension very important in the functionality of the prosthesis, mobility and overall satisfaction with the device. Of our knowledge, the quantitative correlation between all of these factors as not yet been assessed. Aim of study: Verify and confirm the process of decision-making for four different trans-tibial prostheses with suspension systems: Hypobaric(A), PIN(B), Classic Suction(C) and Vacuum Active –VASS(D) according data provided by gait efficiency (mlO2/kg/m) imagiology (pistonning) and amputee perception.

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A design methodology for monolithic integration of inductor based DC-DC converters is proposed in this paper. A power loss model of the power stage, including the drive circuits, is defined in order to optimize efficiency. Based on this model and taking as reference a 0.35 mu m CMOS process, a buck converter was designed and fabricated. For a given set of operating conditions the defined power loss model allows to optimize the design parameters for the power stage, including the gate-driver tapering factor and the width of the power MOSFETs. Experimental results obtained from a buck converter at 100 MHz switching frequency are presented to validate the proposed methodology.

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IET Control Theory & Applications, Vol. 1, Nº 1

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Proceedings of the International Conference on Computational Cybernetics, Vienna University of Technology, August 30 - September 1, 2004

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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística

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This paper presents an electricity medium voltage (MV) customer characterization framework supportedby knowledge discovery in database (KDD). The main idea is to identify typical load profiles (TLP) of MVconsumers and to develop a rule set for the automatic classification of new consumers. To achieve ourgoal a methodology is proposed consisting of several steps: data pre-processing; application of severalclustering algorithms to segment the daily load profiles; selection of the best partition, corresponding tothe best consumers’ segmentation, based on the assessments of several clustering validity indices; andfinally, a classification model is built based on the resulting clusters. To validate the proposed framework,a case study which includes a real database of MV consumers is performed.

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This paper presents the first phase of the redevelopment of the Electric Vehicle Scenario Simulator (EVeSSi) tool. A new methodology to generate traffic demand scenarios for the Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) tool for urban traffic simulation is described. This methodology is based on a Portugal census database to generate a synthetic population for a given area under study. A realistic case study of a Portuguese city, Vila Real, is assessed. For this area the road network was created along with a synthetic population and public transport. The traffic results were obtained and an electric buses fleet was evaluated assuming that the actual fleet would be replaced in a near future. The energy requirements to charge the electric fleet overnight were estimated in order to evaluate the impacts that it would cause in the local electricity network.

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Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

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O processo de liberalização do setor elétrico em Portugal Continental seguiu uma metodologia idêntica à da maior parte dos países europeus, tendo a abertura de mercado sido efetuada de forma progressiva. Assim, no âmbito do acompanhamento do setor elétrico nacional, reveste-se de particular interesse caracterizar a evolução mais recente do mercado liberalizado, nomeadamente em relação ao preço da energia elétrica. A previsão do preço da energia elétrica é uma questão muito importante para todos os participantes do mercado de energia elétrica. Como se trata de um assunto de grande importância, a previsão do preço da energia elétrica tem sido alvo de diversos estudos e diversas metodologias têm sido propostas. Esta questão é abordada na presente dissertação recorrendo a técnicas de previsão, nomeadamente a métodos baseados no histórico da variável em estudo. As previsões são, segundo alguns especialistas, um dos inputs essenciais que os gestores desenvolvem para ajudar no processo de decisão. Virtualmente cada decisão relevante ao nível das operações depende de uma previsão. Para a realização do modelo de previsão de preço da energia elétrica foram utilizados os modelos Autorregressivos Integrados de Médias Móveis, Autoregressive / Integrated / Moving Average (ARIMA), que geram previsões através da informação contida na própria série temporal. Como se pretende avaliar a estrutura do preço da energia elétrica do mercado de energia, é importante identificar, deste conjunto de variáveis, quais as que estão mais relacionados com o preço. Neste sentido, é realizada em paralelo uma análise exploratória, através da correlação entre o preço da energia elétrica e outras variáveis de estudo, utilizando para esse efeito o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson. O coeficiente de correlação de Pearson é uma medida do grau e da direção de relação linear entre duas variáveis quantitativas. O modelo desenvolvido foi aplicado tendo por base o histórico de preço da eletricidade desde o inicio do mercado liberalizado e de modo a obter as previsões diária, mensal e anual do preço da eletricidade. A metodologia desenvolvida demonstrou ser eficiente na obtenção das soluções e ser suficientemente rápida para prever o valor do preço da energia elétrica em poucos segundos, servindo de apoio à decisão em ambiente de mercado.

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20th International Conference on Reliable Software Technologies - Ada-Europe 2015 (Ada-Europe 2015), 22 to 26, Jun, 2015, Madrid, Spain.

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The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the acaricide tri-n-butyl tin maleate, industrially applied to samples of carpets, mattress foam, and fabrics used for furniture upholstery, soft toys and shoe uppers. Approximately 100 adult house dust mites of the species Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus were inoculated into a Petri dish containing the sample (a piece of carpet, mattress foam, or fabric), treated with the acaricide, randomly collected. Mite-maintenance culture medium was added on top of each sample. After one, two, three, seven and 30 days of incubation at 25 ºC and 75% relative humidity, each dish was examined using a 40X stereoscopic microscope (40X). One hundred percent acaricide effectiveness was obtained in treated materials by the end of the 30th-day postinoculation period, under optimal conditions for mite maintenance.

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An analytical methodology for the simultaneous determination of seven pharmaceuticals and two metabolites belonging to the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and analgesics therapeutic groups was developed based on off-line solid-phase extraction and ultra-high performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (SPE–UHPLC–MS/MS). Extraction conditions were optimized taking into account parameters like sorbent material, sample volume and sample pH. Method detection limits (MDLs) ranging from 0.02 to 8.18 ng/L were obtained. This methodology was successfully applied to the determination of the selected pharmaceuticals in seawater samples of Atlantic Ocean in the Northern Portuguese coast. All the pharmaceuticals have been detected in the seawater samples, with pharmaceuticals like ibuprofen, acetaminophen, ketoprofen and the metabolite hydroxyibuprofen being the most frequently detected at concentrations that can reach some hundreds of ng/L.

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Intelligent wheelchairs (IW) are technologies that can increase the autonomy and independence of elderly people and patients suffering from some kind of disability. Nowadays the intelligent wheelchairs and the human-machine studies are very active research areas. This paper presents a methodology and a Data Analysis System (DAS) that provides an adapted command language to an user of the IW. This command language is a set of input sequences that can be created using inputs from an input device or a combination of the inputs available in a multimodal interface. The results show that there are statistical evidences to affirm that the mean of the evaluation of the DAS generated command language is higher than the mean of the evaluation of the command language recommended by the health specialist (p value = 0.002) with a sample of 11 cerebral palsy users. This work demonstrates that it is possible to adapt an intelligent wheelchair interface to the user even when the users present heterogeneous and severe physical constraints.

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Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.